Alright, it’s been a few weeks since I’ve put up a betting article, but I’m back this week because there are a few that I really like. Of course, it seems like every week I have a few I really like, and then they still end up losing (such as Ryan Blaney top 5 finish at Kentucky last weekend…that hurt). Anyway, we’ll give this Betting article one more shot until I rename it “Bets Guaranteed to Lose” … just kidding, but seriously.
Texas Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s race. It’s a 1.5-mile low wear track so it compares well to quite a few tracks we’ve raced at already this season, namely Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Kentucky. With Texas, though, you’re able to pass a little easier, so the fastest cars should make their way to the front. Of course, track position is always king at these 1.5-mile tracks, and a late restart can always launch a surprise driver into the top 5–or even in to victory lane.
The bets listed below are ones that I have already placed via the DraftKings Sportsbook, with the odds posted.
My Top Bets for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday
Martin Truex, Jr. to Win (+1000) – I just can’t pass up 10-to-1 odds on Martin Truex, Jr. on a 1.5-mile track. He has the best average finish (8.1) in the series on tracks of this length since the start of 2019, and in terms of Green Flag Speed he has ranked 1st or 2nd in three of the last five this season (Kentucky, Atlanta, and Charlotte). Here at Texas, Truex hasn’t really contended since the 2017 season, but he was a legitimate threat here in the first two races on the “new” track. This year, he’s led 50+ laps in three of the last five races at 1.5-mile tracks. I’ll be surprised if he’s not a contender on Sunday. Again, can’t pass up those 10-to-1 odds. My algorithm has Truex ranked 2nd this week right behind Harvick.
Cole Custer over Matt Kenseth (+100) – No, this isn’t an over-reaction because of Cole Custer’s win at Kentucky last weekend. This is simply a “Matt Kenseth isn’t that good at 1.5-mile tracks” bet, and the Stewart-Haas Fords are coming off of a 1-2-3 finish here at Texas last fall (with Daniel Suarez behind the wheel no less!). Also, Custer has improved quite a bit and is faster than we’re used to over the last month or so. Average finish wise, Custer is at 15.3 on the 1.5-mile tracks this season while Kenseth is at 23.0. I’m honestly really surprised Kenseth is favored in this matchup.
Denny Hamlin to Finish Outside the Top 5 (-132) – I haven’t seen many other Fantasy NASCAR writers out there that are as down as I am on the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, but you know what, I’m going to roll with it. I trust my algorithm, and when it has Hamlin and Kyle Busch ranked outside of the top 10, there’s a reason. Then you look at average Green Flag Speed rank and see that Denny Hamlin has an average ranking of 21.3 on low wear 1.5-mile tracks this season. Even Kyle Busch’s average rank over those same races is a surprising 16.5. I know they both have recent wins here at Texas Motor Speedway but for whatever reason, these #11 and #18 Toyotas aren’t performing on the cookie cutter tracks this year.
Other bets added to my card:
- Kyle Busch to Finish Outside the Top 5 (-136) – See notes above.
- Aric Almirola Stage 1 Winner (+550) – Not a huge bet here by any means but this #10 team is on fire right now. Not to mention, Almirola won the second Stage here at Texas last fall, while also leading 62 laps in that race, plus he starts on the pole for Sunday’s event.
- Ryan Blaney Stage 2 Winner (+900) – I’m expecting Ryan Blaney to be at or near the front all day long here on Sunday, so getting 9-to-1 odds for him to win Stage 2 is a no-brainer for me. Looking at Green Flag Speed, the #12 Ford has been the fastest car all season on 1.5-mile tracks, and when using this tire combination they’ll have on Sunday, Blaney has yet to not have the best Green Flag Speed (he ranked 1st at both Kentucky and Las Vegas).