And now you know why I don’t like betting at Daytona… well, the oval anyway. We’re off to the Daytona road course this weekend for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253, and Chase Elliott has been the heavy favorite all week long, opening at +250 to win before dipping down to +200 on Friday. Martin Truex, Jr. has been right there as well, pretty much sticking to around +450 odds to win on Sunday, and then there’s a big gap to the next set of drivers at +1000, which as Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin.
By the way, I was a special guest on a podcast this week: Full Tank with Phil Eastman. We talked about how Fantasy Racing Online started, betting on the Daytona Road Course race while as well as DFS strategy. Click here and have a listen!!
My Favorite Bets for the Daytona Road Course
3u on William Byron over AJ Allmendinger H2H (-115) – This line moved quite a bit on DraftKings Sports Book, because the initial opening had Byron at +100 to win head-to-head against AJ Allmendinger. I’m glad I grabbed it at that on Thursday night, but I’ll still hammering this at -115 on Sunday, and even more so if it moves to favor The Dinger again. Here’s the thing: AJ Allmendinger is a great road course racer, but his car is questionable at best this weekend. He’s also starting in the back. Additionally, with his car being questionable, his over-aggressive driving style doesn’t help much. Meanwhile, William Byron is emerging as one of the top road course racers right now. My algorithm has Byron projected to finish 7th on Sunday. It has Allmendinger back in 18th. No brainer bet for me.
1u on Joey Logano Top 10 Finish (-137) – Again, leaning on the algorithm here. It actually has Logano projected to finish 4th here on Sunday. I think that’s a little high, but possible. Meanwhile, Joey is 18-to-1 to win the race on Sunday, and that has put his top 10 odds at -137 for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253. Logano has finished top 10 in all four “roval” races ran in the Cup Series over the last three years, and should be able to grab another one here on Sunday.
0.5u on Chistopher Bell Top 10 Finish (+200) – This is only going to be a half-unit bet, but I love the value here with Christopher Bell to finish top 10 on Sunday. Don’t discount how strong this #20 Toyota is on the road courses. Not to mention, Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole looked blazing fast not only in the Busch Clash here at the Daytona Road Course, but also the Daytona 500. They definitely have more speed out of the gate this season than they did last year. As far as Bell goes, don’t let his 24th- and 21st-place finishes on the road courses last season completely scare you away; he ranked 6th in Green Flag Speed at the Charlotte ROVAL and had the 8th-best average running position, and ranked 14th in average running position here at the Daytona Road Course last year.