Ah, betting at Talladega. You probably either love it or hate it. Or a solid mixture of both.

Talladega is great for bettors because you can get some great value with not only longshots but also the favorites in the field. For example, only two drivers have shorter odds than 10/1 for this race, while guys like Kyle Busch (18/1), Kevin Harvick (20/1), Kyle Larson (20/1), and Martin Truex, Jr. (22/1) offer some massive payout potential, for who they are anyway.

This happens because Talladega is wildly unpredictable, and it’s all about who can survive until they end. If a driver can navigate his way through the wrecks mid-race, he probably has a shot to win this thing. And that unpredictability, while it creates great value odds, can also be frustrating for bettors because your driver can go from winning the race to finishing 15th in half a lap.

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Top Bets for Talladega

Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

2u on Aric Almirola (+100) over Martin Truex, Jr. – This was one H2H offering that really stuck out to me this week. Most books have Almirola at shorter odds to win on Sunday compared to Truex, yet Truex is the -120 favorite in the head-to-head. Interesting. Anyway, my algorithm has Almirola a full eight positions above Truex this week, and just a standard eye test says this is the right bet; Truex hasn’t finished better than 20th at Talladega since the 2016 season, while Almirola has finished 9th or better in eight of the last nine races here.

0.5u on Joey Logano (+110) over Denny Hamlin – These are two of the top superspeedway racers in the series right now and are both capable of winning this race. To me, this is a toss-up that could go either way, and if Hamlin was listed as the underdog here, I’d bet that instead. Logano is a three-time Talladega winner while Hamlin is the defending champion at this track–obviously not in the series because that’ll never happen–and my algorithm has them ranked 1-2 heading into the weekend. Again, I have no strong thoughts on either driver here going head-to-head, but I like the value of the underdog.

RACE DAY ADDITION: 1u on Ryan Newman (+120) over Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – We have two completely different driving styles here. On one hand, there’s Ryan Newman, who will play it conservatively for most of the race and ride around in the pack to avoid the carnage. On the other, there’s Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., who will be aggressive from the moment the green flag drops, and it’ll either be checkers or wreckers for him. I love the plus-money value of this matchup when you’re getting the conservative driver. Also, just saying… Stenhouse is the #JordanJinx this week:

As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.