Auto Club 400 DraftKings NASCAR Projections + GPP Plays & Fades

Well… the weirdness that we ended Las Vegas with last weekend has followed the Cup Series to Auto Club Speedway this weekend. Everything was going about as expected on Friday–drivers that were supposed to be fast were–but then Saturday hit and qualifying was just weird. Martin Truex, Jr. failed inspection three times and wasn’t able to post a lap, so he’ll start from and be scored from dead last on Sunday. And then a bunch of favorites will be starting outside of the top 10, too, including Kyle Busch (17th), Brad Keselowski (15th), Chase Elliott (13th), Ryan Blaney (16th), and Denny Hamlin (28th).

Before we get to strategy, which is going to be huge this weekend, there’s a few things to go over. First, Ryan Preece will start from the rear because of an engine change, but his qualifying lap still counts and he will be scored from 20th. Click here for the official starting lineup for Fontana. You can also see the predicted finishing order for Sunday’s Auto Club 400 by the Fantasy Racing Online algorithm by clicking here.

By the way, my projected driver scores for the Auto Club 400 are posted at the bottom of this article. It’s kind of long so if you’re just here for those, scroll down.

DraftKings Strategy Tactics for the Auto Club 400

What a doozy we have this weekend. It’s either going to be very fun or very frustrating trying to put together lineups this weekend, just because of how the starting lineup shook out. One thing is for sure: this is the type of weekend that I’m most likely to kind of change my mind between the time this post goes up and the time I’m finalizing my DraftKings lineups. So make sure you’re following me on Twitter (click here) so that you can see any last-minute thoughts I have on this slate.

With so many good drivers starting outside of the top 10 this weekend, it’s very possible that a pure place differential lineups is going to end up being the best this weekend. And unless we see one driver leading 80+ laps on Sunday, I think it’s going to be difficult for a top 5 starter to end up in that winning lineup. The good news is there are two really good options to dominate starting in the top 5–Alex Bowman ($8,800) and Kevin Harvick ($11,600)–and we have Joey Logano ($10,900) starting back in 7th as well. With that being said, if I’m going to include a dominator in my lineup Sunday, it’s very hard to justify Kevin Harvick’s price point unless you decide to fade Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400). At least with Logano you have a little more room for place differential. And with Bowman, he starts 3rd, so he’s definitely going to have to dominate.

You have to remember, this is only a 200-lap race, not a 267-lap event like last weekend. This allows place differential to become a little more important than dominator points. Not to mention, there’s no guarantee the leader is going to put up the most fastest laps.

I could easily see the top DraftKings lineup on Sunday being a “stars and scrubs” type, with a three of four high-priced guys along with two or three super cheap options. The difficulty with that strategy this weekend, though, is that a lot of the the lower-priced drivers qualified higher than they should have. That means they’ll have to either maintain their position or get lucky and gain a few in order for that strategy to work.

Personally, as of Saturday night, I like the strategy of starting with Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) and then building around him with drivers that are priced less.

Tournament & Cash Drivers I Love for Fontana

PLAY (TOURNAMENTS): Chase Elliott ($9,800) – Never forget that Chase Elliott is a sandbagger in practice, so you kind of have to go off of his teammates to determine what kind of speed the #9 Chevrolet has during a race weekend. So if the long-run speed that Alex Bowman ($8,800) holds true on Sunday, and does in fact translate over to Chase’s ride, we’re going to see a really strong day out of the #9 Chevrolet. Elliott was the class of the field and would have won the Las Vegas last weekend if it wasn’t for a flat tire. He’s finished 11th or better in three of his four starts here at Fontana, and 9th or better in all but one of his eight total starts. At this price point, I think Chase might go under-owned, but he could very well win. I also like being overweight on Ryan Blaney ($9,400) in this price range.

CHALK (CASH GAME) PLAY: Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,400) – Yep, even on race weekends where we don’t have to deal with ridiculous inspection times, stupid stuff can happen. The #19 team was unable to get their car legal the first three times it was inspected on Saturday, so because of that, Truex wasn’t able to even post a lap in qualifying and will start from and be scored from the rear. In cash games, he’s a must play. In tournaments, you could possibly take the strategy play of trying to be a little underweight on him, but it’s probably not going to work out for you. The good news is DraftKings went soft on pricing this weekend and you can fit Truex into a lineup quite easily. I still think he has top 5 finish potential on Sunday.

CHALK (CASH GAME) PLAY: Austin Dillon ($7,400) – I’m not sure what happened in qualifying, but the #3 Chevrolet definitely wasn’t as fast as it should have been. That’s good for NASCAR Fantasy players in place differential games like DraftKings, though. Austin’s record here at Auto Club Speedway is surprising to say the least, as he has six starts under his belt and has only finished worse than 11th twice–16th in 2015, and 24th in 2016. Now, Dillon has started inside the top 5 in three of the last four races here, which obviously contributes to good finishes, but I still think he has a top 15 car this weekend despite qualifying back in the mid-20s. It might be a little difficult to fit Austin into a lineup with his price point but he could easily put up 40+ base DraftKings FPTS on Sunday.

Drivers I’m Avoiding at Auto Club

I will have zero lineups with pole sitter Clint Bowyer ($7,900) on them. The #14 Ford didn’t show any speed in practice on Friday, so I’m considering the pole run as kind of a fluke. Not to mention, Bowyer is awful at 2-mile tracks, with just one top 10 in the last eight Fontana races, and only one top 10 in the last nine Michigan races. Additionally, the #14 team never made a long run in final practice, which is the nail in the coffin here. The only thing I like about Bowyer s how he finished 6th or better in three of the five races at high wear tracks last season, but he didn’t have more than 4 fastest laps in any of them.

Add Michael McDowell ($5,600) to the full fade list. Congratulations to that team on a great qualifying effort of 8th, but if McDowell doesn’t fall like a rock in the first Stage, he definitely will over the course of 400 miles. In DraftKings, he’s an awful play. Kurt Busch ($8,600) starts 4th and has very limited dominator potential. He had 5 or less fastest laps at four of the five high wear tracks last season, including just two here at Auto Club. If I have any lineups with Kurt in them, there won’t be many. The same goes with Aric Almirola ($8,300). Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,700) costs too much and starts too high. Awful combination there. I’d rather roll the dice on Matt DiBenedetto ($7,600), who starts two positions further back (in 12th) and comes at a $100 discount.

As far as the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Denny Hamlin ($9,200) and Erik Jones ($8,100), the contrarian mind in me says go underweight on both, but at the same time, I could see them competing for a top 10 finish. They’re good options in cash games (obviously) but as far as tournaments, I’m probably going to go severely underweight on Denny Hamlin, and try to be underweight on Jones as well–although not that much since he comes at a lower price point.

As far as the bottom-dollar guys, please don’t put Timmy Hill ($5,300) in any of your lineups. He’s literally 15 mph slower than the leaders, and running a car from two years ago. The only way he scores any decent amount of DraftKings points on Sunday is if there’s a bunch of wrecks. I have no idea what DraftKings was thinking pricing him that high.

Something to keep in mind if you’re going with a “studs and duds” approach: Reed Sorenson ($5,000) ran 2 total laps over both practice sessions here on Friday, while Garrett Smithley ($4,900) ran 8 total. We don’t really see start and parks any more but that type of stuff often turns into “mechanical problems” (I use that term loosely) happening on race day. Neither of those guys have an outside sponsor this weekend.

Fontana Auto Club 400 DraftKings Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems. Also included are projected laps led for each driver. This doesn’t take into account fastest laps. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.