Michigan Saturday DraftKings NASCAR Cup Projections, Strategy Tactics, & Plays

It’s apparently the week of change in NASCAR, because right before the starting lineup for Saturday’s race at Michigan was announced, the sanctioning body also let everyone know that the choose rule will now be a part of race restarts starting this weekend (but excluding the superspeedways and road courses), and how the starting lineup will change starting with the Daytona road course next Sunday. But right now we’re focusing on Michigan, a big 2-mile track that is the sister venue to Auto Club Speedway (where we raced at earlier this year). Alex Bowman and Ryan Blaney were the class of the field in that race, and the former went to victory lane that day.

Joey Logano is on the pole for Saturday afternoon’s FireKeepers Casino 400, and the full starting lineup for the first race of the weekend can be found by clicking here. For some reason, this race is still called the FireKeepers Casino 400, although we’re only going 312 miles (156 laps), and we’ll get on the importance of that in a little bit. Now let’s go!

Speed Report in 2020 After New Hampshire

Yep, that’s the car that “won” in Green Flag Speed at New Hampshire last weekend. That’s just a nice reminder that we have to take every statistic with a grain of salt. Cars wrecking out can definitely skew the Green Flag Speed numbers, as it’s only calculated for when cars are running under green. So that’s why Kyle Busch ranked 1st last week. In reality, it should’ve been Keselowski, Hamlin, Logano, Truex, and Almirola as the top 5, in that order, but those guys ranked 2nd through 6th.

Over the last six races here are the fastest drivers in terms of Green Flag Speed:

1. Brad Keselowski (6.7 average rank)
2. Kyle Busch (6.7* average rank)
3. Kevin Harvick (7.0 average rank)
4. Denny Hamlin (7.2 average rank)
5. Aric Almirola (7.7 average rank)

You can click here to check out the updated Cheat Sheet on Green Flag Speed and see how every driver ranks in that category plus more, not only for the last six races but for the whole season.

DraftKings Strategy for Michigan

Earlier I mentioned how this race is only 312 miles. At a 2-mile track, that equates to 156 laps. In other words, about half as many dominator points as last week! So what I’m saying here is I think it’s best to shift the lineup building strategy to a more place differential and finish point of view, as opposed to nailing the dominators. Now obviously if you’re going to take down any GPP, you’re going to need the dominator in your lineup, but I’m just saying the points are limited, and it’s not like we haven’t seen a main dominator fall back here on a late restart and just destroy lineups–*cough* Brad Keselowski *cough* twice *cough*. Those races are still painful to think of.

If you want another example, look no further than Fontana earlier this year: Ryan Blaney led 54 laps, had 38 fastest laps, and had an average running position of 2.9 but finished 19th thanks to a late tire issue. He ended up with 54.5 DraftKings points, the same amount as Erik Jones, who finished 10th and had just 3 fastest laps (Jones also started 29th).

So that’s the strategy I’m taking on Saturday: one dominator, maybe two, and then filling out the rest of the lineup with place differential and finish potential.

Races & Places To Take Into Consideration

Similar Tracks: Auto Club Speedway (Fontana) is the sister track of Michigan, so that’s a great direct comparison. Also, it’s worth noting that Goodyear is bringing the exact same tire combination to Michigan this weekend that they did to the Kentucky and Texas races recently. The cars will also be running the same right side tires as the Kansas race. In addition to these races, I will be taking overall speed heavyily into consideration this week. Also, just as a refresher since it’s been over five months, here’s how the Fontana race went down earlier this year:

Fontana: It was Alex Bowman’s day after starting in 3rd. He led 110 of the 200 laps, and his only real challenger was Ryan Blaney, who grabbed the lead for 54 circuits. In terms of fastest laps, Bowman led the way with 66, then it was Blaney with 38, and Keselowski and Kurt Busch added in 11 each. Nobody else had more than 8 that day.

Potential Dominators on Saturday

Joey Logano ($9,700) is on the pole this week, and let me tell you, good things happen when he starts out front. In last year’s June race, Logano started on the pole and led 163 of the 203 laps en route to victory lane, and in the June race of 2016 he started 1st and finished 1st after leading 138 of the 200 laps. Back in 2013, he started on the pole and wasn’t as dominant but still won the race, leading 51 total laps of the 200 ran that day. In all, Logano has won three of the four Michigan races where he’s started on the pole, but getting that spot via random draw is a lot different than earning it. Still, Joey has a good chance of leading 25%+ of this race on Saturday. Other possible dominators include (and ranked in my opinion of likeliness):

• Kevin Harvick ($11,000)
• Denny Hamlin ($10,400)
• Ryan Blaney ($10,600)
• Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800)
• Brad Keselowski ($10,100)
• Aric Almirola ($9,100)
• Alex Bowman ($7,700)

GPP / Tournament Picks I Love for the FireKeepers Casino 400

Erik Jones ($8,800) – Erik Jones’ record here at Michigan is average at best. He has a 3rd-place finish here back in 2017, but with every other start except one he has ended up between 13th and 18th. Obviously not that great for a guy priced at $8,800 this week. But here’s why I like him: one, with the news of Leavine Family Racing shutting down after this season, Jones basically just got told he won’t have a ride next year won’t be back at JGR next year, which means he’s racing for a contract somewhere else–and that type of stuff lights a fire under these guys’ ass. Also, Erik came home 10th at Fontana this year, and then at the similar tire tracks he was 6th at Texas and 5th at Kansas. If he can avoid that idiotic pitting outside of the box penalty on Saturday, Jones could have a big points day in DraftKings.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,400) – I debated quite a while for who to put in this spot between DiBenedetto, Kurt Busch ($8,000), and Tyler Reddick ($7,200), but I ended up with the driver of the #21 Ford. The blue ovals have had an advantage here at Michigan for quite a while, and for a track that is known to give an advantage to a team with a strong engine, how can you not like the Wood Brothers car? There’s a reason it’s always really fast on superspeedway tracks. Anyway, DiBenedetto has never finished better than 20th here at Michigan but he’s also never had this good of a car. Looking at green flag speed, Matty D ranks 7th-fastest over the last six races, and when you add in how great of a restarter he has been on this tire combination, there’s a lot of upside for him on Saturday. His price and 15th-place starting spot should keep his ownership level relatively calm but I definitely like being overweight on DiBenedetto in GPPs and taking him in single entry contests.

Cole Custer ($6,700) – We might be a little late to the party here, but Cole Custer is running really good as of late. With his 8th-place run at New Hampshire last weekend, Custer now has finished 8th or better in four of the last five Cup Series races, and that includes his win at Kentucky. Really, the only bad race Custer has had lately was Texas, where he wrecked. As far as Michigan goes, this will be Custer’s first Cup Series start here, and he finished 18th back at Fontana in March. In the other similar tire tracks mentioned before, he has finishes of 1st (Kentucky) and 7th (Kansas). I definitely like being overweight on Custer in GPPs because getting a top 10 from a sub-$7,000 is some great value. He starts 16th so his ownership should stay low, but I’ll gladly take Custer as a pivot off of Nemechek and Stenhouse. Don’t forget, Custer has that Stewart-Haas Ford power under the hood, too.

Michigan Saturday DraftKings Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems. Also included are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.