The Drydene 311 at Dover is coming up…again. Yes, we have a second race at “The Monster Mile” this weekend and it’s titled the exact same thing as the first one. And honestly, it’s probably going to end up with the same drivers up front as the first one as well.
As far as Sunday’s event goes, I can’t stress this point enough: we just saw this race happen. The teams must use the same car for both races unless they get permission from NASCAR to go to a backup, and it’s unlikely crew chiefs will be able to make major adjustments to “catch up” overnight. Looking back at the last double-header we had (Michigan), the top 6 on Saturday were: Harvick, Keselowski, Truex, Blaney, Kyle Busch, and Hamlin. On Sunday, the top 6 finishers were: Harvick, Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch, Logano, Almirola. Four of the exact same (also Logano was 8th on Saturday at Michigan), and the main reason we didn’t see Keselowski and Blaney up front in that second race is because they wrecked out while battling for the lead. What I’m trying to say here is WE JUST SAW THIS RACE HAPPEN. Not much is going to change from Saturday to Sunday.
One thing to keep an eye on Sunday before the race is reports of cars going to the rear because of unapproved adjustments or backup cars. This can have a major effect on a driver’s playability, especially those starting up front. I will update this article as news is posted of any drivers going to the back. At Michigan, we had about 10 that had to, but with this being a shorter track, I don’t think we’ll have that many. Two drivers that are for sure are Kurt Busch ($8,300) and Alex Bowman ($8,600), but that doesn’t affect their playability.
Speed Report in 2020 After Dover Saturday
As we’ve seen before with Green Flag Speed, sometimes you have to take it with a grain of salt. A driver wrecking early in the race can heavily skew this statistic, and that’s what we had on Saturday at Dover, as Kurt Busch technically ranked 1st despite finishing last. The rest of the top drivers in Green Flag Speed were quite accurate, though: Hamlin, Truex, Harvick, Bowyer, and Elliott were “actually” the five fastest on Saturday.
Over the last six races here are the fastest drivers in terms of Green Flag Speed:
- Denny Hamlin (4.3 average rank)
- Kevin Harvick (4.7 average rank)
- Kyle Busch (5.0 average rank)
- Joey Logano (7.2 average rank)
- Brad Keselowski (7.3 average rank)
You can click here to check out the updated Cheat Sheet on Green Flag Speed and see how every driver ranks in that category plus more, not only for the last six races but for the whole season.
DraftKings Strategy for Dover Sunday
Remember back in high school and your cheat sheets for tests? That’s exactly what we have for Sunday’s race at Dover; again, I can’t stress this enough: we just saw this race play out. The only difference for this second race is that the contenders are all starting mid-pack. While that definitely limits their major dominator potential, they easily make that up with the place differential points they’re bound to get.
But what about the early dominators? I’m assuming you watched the race here on Saturday, but in case you didn’t, track position is so important at “The Monster Mile.” On Saturday, we saw Austin Dillon gamble on pit strategy and he ended up leading the 3rd-most laps in the race, and nearly double that of pole sitter Chase Elliott. It’s extremely difficult to pass the leader here, and having the advantage of a strong restart means one (or possibly two) of the mid-pack guys starting up front on Sunday will grab some early dominator points…but are they worth rostering? We’ll get to the pole sitter here soon but that’s about the only one I want to roll the dice on, personally.
With so much high-point potential priced at $10,000 and above for Sunday, I will once again be leaning heavily on low-dollar guys to be able to afford the heavy hitters. Ryan Preece ($5,600) and Bubba Wallace ($6,000) are my favorite low-dollar plays but I will probably have higher-than-normal exposure with Brennan Poole ($4,700) and Quin Houff ($4,500) to really embrace some “stud and dud” lineups. I could see those actually potentially working out well here on Sunday, but I wouldn’t recommend going crazy with that strategy.
GPP / Tournament Picks I Love for the Drydene 311 (Sunday)
Kevin Harvick ($11,700) – I ended up going heavy on Harvick in Saturday’s race, and while it paid off with most lineups, a 55 FPTS day was kind of underwhelming. But then I noticed a tweet from his crew chief, Rodney Childers, after the race, that could’ve identified why Harvick had trouble being a true contender: the #4 Ford had a track bar issue in which it kept lowering itself, throwing the #4 team through a loop. The obvious choices in DraftKings for Sunday are Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,300) and Denny Hamlin ($10,600), and while I completely agree with that, I think Harvick is a great option to be overweight on in GPPs and also take in Single Entry contests. He’s finished 4th in each of the last three Dover races, and don’t forget that he led 452 laps in the two races here back in 2018. Maybe starting a row ahead of Truex and Hamlin could let Harvick grab the lead before they do on Sunday…
Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800) – Like I said, track position is so important here. That’s part of the reason why Austin Dillon racked up 22.75 dominator FPTS (21 fastest laps, 49 laps led). On Sunday, Matt DiBenedetto will start from the pole, and with his Ford power, I don’t see why he won’t be able to lead all of the laps up until the first caution (and maybe even more after that). There’s obviously some risk here in playing the pole sitter since he just finished 20th in the first race of the weekend, but at only $6,800, that makes it much more palatable to roll the dice here.
Tyler Reddick ($6,500) – I’m going back to the well here. Reddick will roll off the grid from 8th when Sunday’s Drydene 311 goes green, and while that’s a little higher than I would like, his $6,500 salary makes him an option. If you read my articles for Saturday’s race, you know I was all over Reddick in every single Fantasy NASCAR league, and while his 13th-place finish was acceptable, it wasn’t great. However, don’t forget that this team had a pit road penalty to start the final Stage, and Reddick still put up 8 fastest laps in that race. If he can get up and lead on Saturday like his teammate did on Sunday, Reddick could very well end up in the optimal lineup. If you don’t want to take the risk with a guy like Reddick and his top 10 starting spot, Matt Kenseth ($6,300) starts 22nd and could sneak in a top 15 finish (or better depending on how the race plays out).
Cash Core Drivers I Love for the Drydene 311 (Sunday)
Denny Hamlin ($10,600) – I wish DraftKings would’ve waited until Saturday’s race was over to set the salaries for Sunday’s race, but that’s not the case so this is what we’re stuck with. Hamlin is the 4th-highest-priced driver on the slate with the best car. And not only has he led over 300 laps in the last two Dover races, but he passed his teammate during a green flag run to get the win on Saturday. Chances are this race is going to come down to Hamlin and Truex again, and they’re both great cash lineup options. Hamlin is the better one between the two because he’s $700 less.
Kurt Busch ($8,300) – It was an early day for Kurt Busch on Saturday, and he’ll be going to a backup car for Sunday’s event. He’ll officially be scored from 28th in Fantasy NASCAR leagues but will have to drop to the rear on the pace laps. This is a little concerning, but at just $8,300 it’s hard to pass him up in cash lineups. Kurt has ended up between 5th and 13th in four of his last five starts at “The Monster Mile” and even with a bad race on Sunday he’s looking at 10+ place differential points.
Clint Bowyer ($8,200) – In general, Clint Bowyer has been a disappointment for Fantasy NASCAR players this season, but he’s been a bit more reliable on high-banked tracks–especially the smaller ones. In addition to finishing 2nd at Bristol earlier this year, Clint ended up 6th in the first Dover race this weekend while also posting legitimate top 5 Green Flag Speed. Bowyer now has five top 10s in his last six starts at “The Monster Mile,” and with a $8,200 salary and a starting spot of 15th, he makes a great cash lineup play.
Dover Sunday DraftKings Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems. Also included are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
|Driver||Starting Position||DraftKings Salary||Avg Proj FPTS||Avg. Projected Finish||Proj Laps Led||Proj Fastest Laps||Dollar Per FPT|
|Martin Truex Jr||19||$11,300||99.1||02.7||69||46||$114|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr||11||$7,300||29.0||16.0||2||8||$252|
|John H. Nemechek||27||$6,100||21.0||25.3||0||0||$290|