The third road course race of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season is this weekend at Sonoma Raceway, and this also marks the last “regular season” race before the All Star Break next week. With Sonoma, we’ll get a 90-lap shootout (basically) where track position is going to be key. We usually see strategy and fuel mileage come into play with these races, but with how NASCAR has the Stages scheduled, fuel might not come into play as much. Either way, expect a lot of green flag laps and few wrecks here on Sunday. My algorithm predicted finishing order is a great tool to check out as well when making picks, and you can click here to look at that. Now let’s get to the article!
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Driver Loop Data Averages at Sonoma
We’re focusing specifically on road course races when pulling data this weekend, and unfortunately the two races on this track type in 2021 thus far haven’t been great. The first (Daytona Road Course) turned into a mess with a bunch of wrecks and wacky happenings, and the second (Circuit of the Americas) was… well, let’s just say I won’t be taking into account any of that data.
As far as Sonoma goes, we haven’t raced here since 2019. Below you will find data from the 2020 road course races (Charlotte ROVAL and Daytona Road Course) as well as a chart with 2019 and 2020 data (which had three road course races: Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and Charlotte ROVAL).
2020 Driver Stats on Road Courses
| Chase Elliott | 01.0 | 132.5 | 174 | 33 | 61 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 05.0 | 116.5 | 174 | 21 | 10 |
| Joey Logano | 05.5 | 104.4 | 174 | 5 | 1 |
| William Byron | 07.0 | 110.4 | 174 | 9 | 27 |
| Erik Jones | 07.0 | 94.1 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 08.5 | 95.3 | 174 | 7 | 16 |
| Kurt Busch | 09.0 | 97.8 | 174 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Bowman | 10.0 | 89.3 | 174 | 3 | 2 |
| Chris Buescher | 12.5 | 67.6 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Harvick | 14.0 | 79.2 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Reddick | 15.0 | 69.8 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 15.5 | 82.5 | 174 | 3 | 7 |
| Cole Custer | 15.5 | 76.0 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 16.5 | 67.6 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 18.0 | 88.1 | 174 | 23 | 14 |
| Ryan Preece | 18.5 | 75.0 | 174 | 0 | 8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 18.5 | 64.9 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 19.0 | 65.0 | 109 | 0 | 0 |
| Aric Almirola | 20.0 | 70.1 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 21.0 | 67.6 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 21.5 | 66.2 | 174 | 4 | 5 |
| Christopher Bell | 22.5 | 78.3 | 174 | 5 | 6 |
| Bubba Wallace | 23.0 | 57.4 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Newman | 25.0 | 49.1 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 26.0 | 49.0 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey LaJoie | 29.5 | 48.4 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bilicki | 33.0 | 34.5 | 108 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Busch | 33.5 | 69.1 | 162 | 5 | 4 |
| Timmy Hill | 33.5 | 35.0 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
2019 + 2020 Driver Stats on Road Courses
We can go ahead and add in the 2019 road course races as well, just to have more races in the data sets. The statistics below include the two 2020 road course races mentioned above as well as the 2019 races at Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and the Charlotte ROVAL.
Please note: Chase Elliott’s average finish of 8.2 over these five races isn’t quite as impressive, but he won four of the five races and just had a bad race at Sonoma in 2019. Also note that Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer only have data from the two races in 2020, as last season was their rookie years.
| Martin Truex Jr | 04.0 | 121.6 | 463 | 70 | 71 |
| Chase Elliott | 08.2 | 129.8 | 433 | 99 | 179 |
| Kevin Harvick | 08.8 | 97.0 | 463 | 15 | 34 |
| Denny Hamlin | 08.8 | 94.9 | 463 | 16 | 20 |
| Alex Bowman | 10.0 | 83.7 | 463 | 3 | 2 |
| Kyle Larson | 10.3 | 93.6 | 289 | 11 | 11 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10.4 | 94.3 | 463 | 28 | 14 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 11.6 | 82.4 | 463 | 3 | 0 |
| William Byron | 12.0 | 99.5 | 463 | 31 | 71 |
| Kurt Busch | 12.2 | 87.0 | 463 | 6 | 0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 87.6 | 463 | 7 | 10 |
| Erik Jones | 13.2 | 85.4 | 377 | 3 | 1 |
| Joey Logano | 13.4 | 87.3 | 463 | 17 | 5 |
| Chris Buescher | 14.4 | 71.6 | 463 | 1 | 0 |
| Aric Almirola | 15.0 | 77.9 | 463 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Reddick | 15.0 | 69.8 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Custer | 15.5 | 76.0 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 17.2 | 68.8 | 463 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael McDowell | 19.0 | 68.7 | 462 | 5 | 0 |
| Christopher Bell | 22.5 | 78.3 | 174 | 5 | 6 |
| Ryan Newman | 22.8 | 59.9 | 463 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 23.0 | 57.4 | 461 | 4 | 5 |
| Kyle Busch | 23.4 | 82.9 | 441 | 19 | 7 |
| Daniel Suarez | 24.0 | 62.9 | 462 | 2 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 24.3 | 53.3 | 397 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Preece | 24.6 | 61.3 | 444 | 0 | 8 |
| Bubba Wallace | 24.8 | 51.0 | 462 | 2 | 0 |
| Corey LaJoie | 30.4 | 42.8 | 457 | 0 | 0 |
| Timmy Hill | 32.3 | 34.7 | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Bilicki | 34.3 | 32.2 | 280 | 3 | 0 |
Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video
Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Sonoma according to my Projections is:
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Joey Logano
- Kurt Busch
- Christopher Bell
- Chris Buescher
Confidence Rating = 8.1/10. It was actually a bit surprising to see Logano sneak into the projected optimal FanDuel lineup this weekend, but at the same time, it makes sense. The #22 Ford has been a strong top 5 contender in both road course races this season, but here at Sonoma, Logano is in a bit of a rough stretch, with three straight finishes outside of the top 10. Expect that to change this weekend, though. Just like with my DraftKings optimal lineup this weekend, I think this one for FanDuel is a strong base to work with and tweak on.
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Sonoma (Cash Lineups)
Joey Logano ($11,000) – My projections really like Joey Logano this weekend, and with a $11,000 FanDuel price tag and a starting position of 13th, it’s easy to assume why. Logano has been strong in all of the road course races this season, and while his recent record here at Sonoma isn’t stellar, the #22 Ford hasn’t been awful by any means (four top 6 Stage finishes in the last six Stage breaks), Joey just hasn’t walked away with finish. Currently, Logano is on a five-race streak of top 10s at road courses and a three-race streak of top 3 results (four if you count the Busch Clash this year).
Erik Jones ($6,000) – This is actually a little riskier than I’d like to be with a cash lineup, but with the salary relief that Erik Jones can provide you in FanDuel with his $6,000 salary, I really like that kind of lineup build. Jones has top 15 finishing potential here on Sunday at Sonoma even in his less-than-stellar Richard Petty Motorsports equipment. At this track specifically, EJ finished 7th and 8th in 2018 and 2019 despite starting 20th and 32nd (respectively). Now obviously this was in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, so there’s a bump in performance there, but Jones has finished 8th, 14th, and 16th in the three road course races this season in his Petty car. Don’t forget: driver talent is more prevalent at road courses than a “typical” track.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Sonoma (Tournament Lineups)
Denny Hamlin ($12,000) – And just like that we’re 15 “actual” races in to the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season and Denny Hamlin still hasn’t visited victory lane. Will this finally be the week he gets it done? Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me. Joe Gibbs Racing has had a significant advantage over the field here at Sonoma, and Hamlin is one of the best road course racers in the series. He’s never won at this race track but is on a four-race streak of top 10s, and three of those four are also top 5s. I also really like Kyle Busch ($13,000) this weekend but prefer the $1,000 discount for Hamlin, who has similar upside as Rowdy.
Chris Buescher ($7,300) – As mentioned in my DFS video this week (above), give me all of the Chris Buescher at road courses and superspeedways. Yes, he starts up in 12th this weekend, but Buescher finished 16th, 12th, and 19th here at Sonoma in JTG Daugherty equipment and now he arguably has a better ride with Roush-Fenway. Recent finishes at all road course races include a 13th at COTA and 11th at Daytona Road Course this season, as well as a 20th at the Charlotte ROVAL and 5th at Daytona Road Course last season.
FanDuel Driver Projections for Sonoma (Toyota / Save Mart 350)
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr. | $14,000 | 54.25 | 19 | 62.00 | $258 |
| Chase Elliott | $14,500 | 51.22 | 2 | 58.50 | $283 |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,000 | 46.65 | 4 | 54.60 | $257 |
| Joey Logano | $11,000 | 46.50 | 13 | 50.80 | $237 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,000 | 46.38 | 5 | 56.00 | $280 |
| Kyle Larson | $12,500 | 45.75 | 1 | 55.50 | $273 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,500 | 45.25 | 30 | 56.20 | $188 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 | 44.85 | 8 | 51.00 | $234 |
| William Byron | $11,500 | 44.15 | 3 | 54.90 | $260 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 43.00 | 20 | 62.00 | $209 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,000 | 41.25 | 11 | 51.50 | $242 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,500 | 38.00 | 7 | 46.20 | $250 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 37.25 | 12 | 44.00 | $196 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,300 | 37.00 | 10 | 47.80 | $224 |
| Cole Custer | $6,700 | 36.50 | 23 | 49.50 | $184 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,200 | 36.00 | 9 | 44.30 | $256 |
| Michael McDowell | $8,000 | 34.75 | 21 | 44.00 | $230 |
| Erik Jones | $6,000 | 34.25 | 18 | 41.00 | $175 |
| Aric Almirola | $5,200 | 33.00 | 26 | 37.50 | $158 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,000 | 32.50 | 29 | 36.00 | $215 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,200 | 31.00 | 25 | 40.00 | $232 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,500 | 31.00 | 17 | 36.50 | $242 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,500 | 30.50 | 27 | 35.00 | $148 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,200 | 29.50 | 6 | 38.00 | $210 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,000 | 28.50 | 24 | 35.10 | $175 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,500 | 28.25 | 16 | 43.30 | $230 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,500 | 28.00 | 14 | 37.50 | $196 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 21.75 | 28 | 26.50 | $161 |
| James Davison | $2,500 | 21.50 | 32 | 27.00 | $116 |
| Bubba Wallace | $4,500 | 21.25 | 15 | 33.50 | $212 |
| Ben Rhodes | $2,000 | 20.25 | 31 | 23.50 | $99 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,000 | 20.00 | 22 | 31.00 | $200 |
| Scott Heckert | $2,000 | 18.50 | 35 | 21.00 | $108 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 17.75 | 34 | 22.00 | $113 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 16.90 | 37 | 19.00 | $178 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 16.65 | 36 | 20.00 | $180 |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 14.90 | 33 | 20.00 | $168 |
