The Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is this weekend, and the second race of the Round of 8 for this year’s Playoffs. The NASCAR Cup Series hasn’t raced at Homestead yet this season, so from that perspective we’re going in blind, but it’s a high-wear 1.5-mile track, which means you can analyze statistics from similar tracks–Darlington, Dover, Bristol, Las Vegas, Auto Club–to get a good idea of who should be fast. And let’s not forget that some drivers are just really good at Homestead.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Homestead on Sunday according to my Projections is:

  • Tyler Reddick
  • Joey Logano
  • Ross Chastain
  • William Byron
  • Cole Custer
  • Corey LaJoie

DraftKings NASCAR Cash Core Picks for the Homestead Dixie Vodka 400

William Byron #24 Chevrolet doing a burnout after winning at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2021
Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Tyler Reddick ($10,900) – This slate works out well to roll with the highest-priced driver as well as a couple of others, so I’m rolling with it. If you put my projections into an optimizer and have it spit out 150 lineups, these three “cash core” drivers are the top 3 it puts out, with Reddick at 62%, Byron at 98.7%, and Chastain at 95.3%. As far as Homestead-Miami Speedway and Tyler Reddick go, he’s made two Cup Series starts and has wound up 4th and 2nd in those events. He also started 24th and 35th in those two races. This time around, he starts 7th, so he has a lot less work to do. Reddick was the fastest car in practice when it came to 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap average, and while I think you could go a little underweight on him in tournaments, he’s a definite cash play this weekend.

Ross Chastain ($9,600) – In three career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ross Chastain has posted finishes of 33rd, 35th, and 17th, but don’t let that scare you away because only one of those starts was in halfway decent equipment (his 17th with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021). Instead, I’m more focused on how Chastain has done on high-wear and similar tracks this season, and he ranked in the top 3 in fastest laps in both Darlington races as well as the Las Vegas race last weekend. In practice here at Homestead on Saturday, Chastain was 3rd-fastest in 25-lap average and he qualified back in 20th, which makes him a must-play in cash games this weekend.

William Byron ($9,200) – The defending winner of this race went out and won the pole for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400, and while it’s always a bit risky to take the pole sitter at these 1.5-mile tracks in 2022, the cheap-ish price tag of $9,200 for Willy B makes it easier to swallow. Homestead is honestly one of Byron’s better tracks, and considering he won here last season and led 102 laps despite starting 31st, it’s going to be fun to see how much he can dominate here on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Byron ranked 6th-fastest in 25-lap average and 4th-fastest in 30-lap average. Don’t forget that that first pit stall is going to be a big advantage on race day as well.


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Homestead-Miami NASCAR DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDK SalaryAvg Proj FPTSProj OwnStarting PositionAvg. Projected FinishDollar Per FPT
Tyler Reddick$10,90064.2526.09%704.5$170
Ross Chastain$9,60060.1036.58%2006.3$160
William Byron$9,20059.0738.67%108.5$156
Denny Hamlin$10,60052.4824.67%1407.5$202
Kyle Larson$10,80051.7025.87%504.8$209
Kyle Busch$10,00051.6019.19%1108.2$194
Joey Logano$9,80049.6726.10%1708.2$197
Martin Truex Jr$9,40046.3530.85%1208.5$203
Christopher Bell$9,00045.2519.79%205.5$199
Kevin Harvick$8,80044.7728.38%1610.8$197
Ryan Blaney$10,20040.7516.82%1309.3$250
Chase Elliott$10,40035.9211.36%310.5$290
Noah Gragson$8,10033.8319.43%2417.0$239
Austin Dillon$7,20032.5723.09%3221.2$221
Austin Cindric$7,70032.2818.73%2618.2$239
Daniel Suarez$8,30031.7015.89%2317.2$262
Michael McDowell$7,40029.138.83%1817.5$254
Brad Keselowski$7,00028.929.27%915.3$242
Chase Briscoe$8,50028.2015.60%1919.3$301
Erik Jones$7,90027.0016.95%2218.3$293
Aric Almirola$6,70024.8328.24%2821.8$270
Justin Haley$6,30022.129.37%1517.8$285
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,50021.5025.95%2724.3$302
Chris Buescher$6,90020.408.20%817.8$338
Cole Custer$5,50020.0019.90%2524.8$275
AJ Allmendinger$7,50019.355.73%1018.0$388
Corey Lajoie$5,00018.1724.53%3127.7$275
Ty Dillon$5,70014.8319.35%3028.2$384
John H. Nemechek$6,10013.583.12%418.3$449
Cody Ware$4,70012.171.46%3633.0$386
Landon Cassill$4,80011.501.03%3331.2$417
Harrison Burton$5,30011.174.32%2125.8$475
Ty Gibbs$5,90010.855.61%620.0$544
JJ Yeley$4,50006.331.29%3434.5$711
Todd Gilliland$5,10005.838.62%2932.2$874
BJ McLeod$4,60005.671.12%3535.2$812
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.