It sure has been a week for NASCAR sports betting stories.
Several long-odds bets paid out at Daytona last Sunday, including the bet of a Stacking Dennys listener who won $1 million on a $13.49 four-leg parlay. Side note: we were able to get him for an exclusive interview for this week’s episode, which you can listen to here:
But even though it’s fun to look back on those huge wins last week, it’s also time to turn our attention to the next race on the schedule: the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
When books posted opening lines for this race, there were some massive value bets available out there–including Ross Chastain at 15/1 odds to win–and while sportsbooks have since adjusted their lines accordingly, there is still one prop bet out there that looks to be of very good value.
The Bet: Kevin Harvick Top 10 Finish (-125)
Darlington Raceway is known as a driver’s racetrack, which means that the best drivers always find their way to the front–and Kevin Harvick is a very good racecar driver. Over the last seven races here at “The Lady in Black,” Harvick has a series-best average finish of 3.4, and over the last 13 races here he’s posted a single-digit finish every single time.
There’s an argument to be made that Harvick wasn’t that great here at Darlington back in May of this year, and while it is accurate that he ranked just 14th-fastest in Green Flag Speed, let’s not forget that this #4 team blew a tire in practice that weekend and had to deal with a damaged racecar in addition to starting in the back at the beginning of that race.
Additionally, Stewart-Haas Racing as a whole has found a pretty significant amount of speed since May, and the last time NASCAR raced at a high-wear race track–Richmond just three weeks ago–it was Harvick who ended up in victory lane at the end of the day, and on pure speed.
Here at Darlington specifically, the last time that Harvick ended up outside of the top 10 was back in 2012.
This -125 line for a top 10 by Harvick on Sunday can be found at the Kambi books, such as Barstool Sportsbook and BetRivers. Comparatively speaking, FanDuel has his odds for a top 10 at -180, while DraftKings has it at -140 (after opening at -110).
I personally was able to lock in Harvick for a top 10 finish at -120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook earlier this week. I put 6 units on it, making it my largest NASCAR bet of the season.
Fair warning, though: the last time I was super confident in a top 10 finishing bet was Ryan Blaney at Martinsville last season, and he ended up finishing 11th and I lost thousands.