It feels like we can start this the same way every week, but another great finish! Another new winner and another long shot! Jordan gave out Ross Chastain at 40/1 last week as did I on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast. Two weeks ago I called William Byron 15-1 in this article. Will there be another new winner this week? Possible another first-time winner, as Tyler Reddick and Daniel Suarez have looked solid lately in their quest for that first Cup win. There are also 13 different drivers who won in 2021 that haven’t tasted victory this season yet.
This week we head to the 7th different track style of the season for the 7th race of the year. The ¾ mile “America’s premier short track,” Richmond Raceway. Joe Gibbs Racing has owned this track over the past few seasons. Last spring saw Denny Hamlin dominate the race before Alex Bowman “backed into another win,” as Kyle Busch would say, and in the fall we saw a Gibbs 1-2-3 finish of Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. Toyota has struggled this season and Joe Gibbs Racing has only two top-5 finishes this season, if there is a time for them to turn things around it’s this week.
Cody’s Betting Card for Richmond
#JordanJinx – Joey Logano to Win (+1200)
Tyler Reddick pretty well survived the jinx last week he was a 40/1 longshot and while he didn’t win he was in the mix at the end and secured a solid 5th place finish. This week the 2018 Series Champion has the jinx. Joey is great on short-flat racetracks, winning the exhibition race at the L.A Coliseum. Logano also has finished in the top-5 in 7 of the last 9 races here at Richmond. Look for him to be strong this weekend, but be warned he carries the Jinx with him!
Erik Jones Top 10 Finish (+150)
Erik Jones showed us earlier this season at Auto Club Speedway that when he can qualify up front, he can stay and run up there. After starting 2nd at Auto Club, Erik managed a 3rd place finish, and is coming off a solid top-10 run at COTA last week. Saturday morning Jones qualified 5th for Sunday’s race here at Richmond. Chevy has proven to be the best manufacturer this season and this is solid value for Jones.
Cody’s Best Bet: Tyler Reddick over Denny Hamlin (-108)
While I see Toyota and Joe Gibbs rebounding this week, I don’t think it’s with Denny. Hamlin hasn’t finished better than 13th this season and just can’t seem to get the hang of this new car. The head-to-head against him last week didn’t hit, but that was a Logano problem and not because Denny was great. Reddick should be up front in this race and as I mentioned on the podcast this week I feel he will be our next new winner. Maybe even this week! So until proven otherwise keep fading Hamlin.
To Win: Kyle Busch (+1000)
Gibbs Racing has dominated here for years, Kyle Busch is driving a fresh new Crunchy Cookie M&Ms paint scheme, he was fastest in practice and will start 3rd on Sunday. Busch has 18 top-5 finishes at Richmond and is the winningest active driver here with six wins, twice as many wins as the next group.
Long-Shot: Austin Dillon (+3200)
These odds are just far too good to pass up on. We’ve seen long shots hit all year, and we’ve seen just about anyone can win. This is another Chevy driver who’s performed well this season with a 2nd place at Auto Club and coming off a top-10 finish last week at COTA. Dillon has five Top-11 finishes in the last 6 races here at Richmond, so he knows his way around.