Believe it or not, 2018 will only be Trevor Bayne’s 4th full season in a NASCAR Cup Series car, all with the Roush-Fenway Racing organization. The good news is that RFR has made significant improvements over the last couple of years, and if they can take another big step here this season, Bayne could be in the position to improve yet again when it comes to his average finish.
Cup Series History
Last season was Trevor Bayne’s best statistical year in Cup Series action. With that being said, that equaled out to just 19.5 average finish, which was only slightly better than his average result of 19.9 in 2016. Last year, Trevor posted six top 10 finishes over the 36-race season, which was a career-best as well. If you remember back to 2011, that’s when Bayne jumped into the Cup scene with a surprise Daytona 500 victory. He was eased into NASCAR’s top series (his first full year was 2015) but, still, he hasn’t been too impressive. Trevor Bayne has always been pretty mediocre throughout his racing career, though: he never posted a top 5 points finish while racing full time in the Xfinity Series.
Predictions for the Upcoming Season
Roush-Fenway Racing has improved in a major way over the last couple of years–Bayne’s average finish jumped from 25.8 in 2015 to 19.9 in 2016–and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them make more gains here in 2018. With that being said, will Bayne be able to keep up? The #6 team only improved to an average finish of 19.5 last season.
Overall Expectations: There’s actually a bit to like about Trevor Bayne this upcoming season, at least when evaluating him in the lower fantasy tier that he is. Last season, he actually posted eight top 15 finishes in the first eleven races, and while that kind of consistency isn’t going to suddenly just happen with Bayne, shoring up the dropoff in the second half of the season would be great for this #6 team. They ended the 2017 year with eight finishes of 20th or worse in the last twelve races. Overall, I’m expecting around six top 10 finishes out of Bayne in 2018, but I think he’s capable of posting an overall average result of 17th.
Can Trevor Bayne win a Cup Series race in 2018? Doubtful, at least in a “normal” race. The best chance for either of the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers to get to victory lane is at the restrictor plate tracks (Daytona and Talladega), where Bayne’s teammate, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., won twice last year. Bayne has won a plate race before, and he has a car strong enough to get to the front during them in 2018.
Trevor Bayne as a Fantasy Option in 2018
DraftKings: Trevor Bayne was actually a very valuable option in DraftKings during the 2017 season, and this was especially true when his salary was low. In the second half of the year, DraftKings kept his salary around the $7,000 mark, and that doesn’t mix well with an overall drop in performance. With that being said, Bayne is a driver that typically finishes better than he qualifies, and he had nine races last year that he had a positive place differential of eight or better. Those kind of numbers can be great for a driver in this price range, especially if he can sneak in a top 15 finish as well.
Season-Long Salary Cap Games: This is all going to come down to whether or not Roush-Fenway Racing can make some more overall progress in 2018 or not. I’m expecting them to accomplish that, and that means Trevor Bayne could be a great option in season-long salary cap games. In most of those contests, Bayne is going to be one of the lowest-priced options, and while you won’t get many great finishes out of Trevor, weekly top 15s isn’t too far off for this #6 team right now.
