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As the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend, NASCAR Fantasy nerds have to be excited with the amount of same-season data we have with these 1.5-mile tracks. So far, we’ve hit Atlanta, Texas, Kansas, Charlotte, Chicagoland, and Kentucky, but with the different package and track conditions at Atlanta, we really have five solid races of data to look back on to try and get a good idea of what to expect here at Las Vegas on Sunday night. Those are the five races that the following numbers are calculated using.

DraftKings Bargains and Busts for the South Point 400

Let me quickly explain how this chart works. First, I started with the driver listing from DraftKings and literally ranked them 1 through 37 depending on price level. I then looked at different statistics from the 1.5-mile tracks this season, and ranked those drivers accordingly. Those statistics are: DraftKings Points scored per race, Average Running Position in those five races, Average Finish over those five races, and Average DraftKings Dominator Points per race. So, for example, the driver with the best average finish over those five races got a ranking of 1, while the worst got a ranking of 37. The driver with the most average DK Pts over those five races got a ranking a 1 in that category, the driver with the least per race got a ranking of 37. And so on and so forth. If there were any ties, the rankings were added together and divided by the number of drivers tied, and they were all given the same ranking.

Once those rankings were done, I averaged the four rankings to create the Avg Rank (column 5 in the table below), and then subtracting that Avg Rank from the Price Rank. This, essentially, gives us Bargains and Busts based on this season’s 1.5-mile data; a higher number in column 1 (Price Rank – Avg Rank) says that that driver is a bargain at his price, while a lower number says he’s probably not worth the price tag.

PRICE RANK - AVG RANKDriverLV2 DK SalaryPrice RankAvg RankDK Pts RankAvg Run. Pos. RankAvg Finish RankAvg. Dom. Pts Rank
14.50Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,100216.501054.517
8.50Alex Bowman$8,000156.505122.53
8.00Aric Almirola$7,800168.0098716
6.00Chase Elliott$8,900104.0063.52.56
5.67Garrett Smithley$4,7003630.3324343325.5
5.00Matt Tifft$5,2003227.0022302937
4.67Corey Lajoie$5,6003126.3323312535
4.50David Ragan$5,7003025.502525.52624
4.33Jimmie Johnson$7,7001712.6715111213
4.17Michael McDowell$5,8002924.83272423.528
4.00Chris Buescher$7,2002016.0013211423
3.00Kurt Busch$9,30085.0073.54.58
2.67Paul Menard$6,9002219.3320182021
2.67Joey Logano$9,70063.332715
2.67Daniel Suarez$7,6001815.3314161612
2.50BJ McLeod$4,6003734.50333535.527
1.33William Byron$8,3001311.671661310
-0.33Ryan Preece$6,1002727.3326282835
-0.50Reed Sorenson$4,9003434.50323635.533
-0.67Landon Cassill$5,0003333.6734333430
-1.33Kevin Harvick$10,30045.3341111
-1.33Joey Gase$4,8003536.3335373735
-1.83Daniel Hemric$6,2002627.83372323.520
-2.00Austin Dillon$6,8002325.0036172218
-2.67Ross Chastain$6,0002830.6728323231
-3.17Kyle Busch$11,50014.17129.52
-3.67Martin Truex Jr$10,70036.673984
-4.00Bubba Wallace$6,6002428.0030272725.5
-4.50Erik Jones$9,100913.5011209.515
-4.67Clint Bowyer$8,5001216.6719141714
-5.00Ty Dillon$6,4002530.0031293032
-5.33Ryan Newman$8,1001419.3317221922
-6.00Denny Hamlin$11,10028.00810611
-6.33Brad Keselowski$9,500713.331213157
-9.33Ryan Blaney$8,7001120.332119219
-9.50Matt DiBenedetto$7,4001928.502925.53129
-12.00Kyle Larson$10,000517.0018151819

DraftKings Statistics to Determine Bargains and Busts

PRICE RANK - AVG RANKDriverLV2 DK SalaryDK Pts Per RaceAvg Running PositionAvg FinishAvg. Dom. Pts
14.50Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,10041.4611.0010.333.29
8.50Alex Bowman$8,00054.8812.5009.3315.21
8.00Aric Almirola$7,80041.5411.5011.173.54
6.00Chase Elliott$8,90053.7110.6709.3313.04
5.67Garrett Smithley$4,70018.5034.0032.000.50
5.00Matt Tifft$5,20023.1327.1725.830.13
4.67Corey Lajoie$5,60022.6727.5024.500.17
4.50David Ragan$5,70018.2924.5024.500.63
4.33Jimmie Johnson$7,70035.3312.1712.006.33
4.17Michael McDowell$5,80017.5422.5023.000.38
4.00Chris Buescher$7,20040.6716.6713.671.00
3.00Kurt Busch$9,30048.5410.6710.3310.21
2.67Paul Menard$6,90026.5015.8317.331.50
2.67Joey Logano$9,70056.7911.3307.5013.13
2.67Daniel Suarez$7,60039.0815.3314.007.25
2.50BJ McLeod$4,60011.2034.4033.800.40
1.33William Byron$8,30034.6711.1712.838.17
-0.33Ryan Preece$6,10018.1725.5025.330.17
-0.50Reed Sorenson$4,90012.0034.6033.800.20
-0.67Landon Cassill$5,00011.1733.6733.170.33
-1.33Kevin Harvick$10,30055.3308.1711.8328.83
-1.33Joey Gase$4,80010.8337.0036.000.17
-1.83Daniel Hemric$6,2007.7920.3323.001.79
-2.00Austin Dillon$6,80010.1715.5021.673.17
-2.67Ross Chastain$6,00015.2930.8331.000.29
-3.17Kyle Busch$11,50057.2908.5011.6727.13
-3.67Martin Truex Jr$10,70055.6711.6711.3314.83
-4.00Bubba Wallace$6,60014.1724.6725.170.50
-4.50Erik Jones$9,10041.3316.1711.675.17
-4.67Clint Bowyer$8,50031.7915.0014.676.29
-5.00Ty Dillon$6,40012.4226.5027.000.25
-5.33Ryan Newman$8,10034.2517.0016.671.08
-6.00Denny Hamlin$11,10042.1711.8310.678.00
-6.33Brad Keselowski$9,50040.9214.1713.8312.25
-9.33Ryan Blaney$8,70026.0816.0020.509.25
-9.50Matt DiBenedetto$7,40014.5024.5027.500.33
-12.00Kyle Larson$10,00034.1315.1716.332.46

Adjusted Bargains and Busts Rankings

Below is the same general rankings chart as the one two spots above, but in this one the worst performance for each driver in the statistical categories has been removed. Think of this as a “mulligan” of sorts if a driver had an off-night in that five-race span.

PRICE RANK - AVG RANKDriverLV2 DK SalaryPrice RankAvg RankDK Pts RankAvg Run. Pos. RankAvg Finish RankAvg. Dom. Pts Rank
9.88Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,1002111.13145.5817
9.13Alex Bowman$8,000155.88511.543
5.00David Ragan$5,7003025.0024262624
5.00BJ McLeod$4,6003732.0034343426
4.88Jimmie Johnson$7,7001712.131711.5713
4.75Chase Elliott$8,900105.257365
4.00Michael McDowell$5,8002925.0025242427
3.25Daniel Suarez$7,6001814.7513171712
3.00Matt Tifft$5,2003229.0022302836
2.63Aric Almirola$7,8001613.38111313.516
2.63Corey Lajoie$5,6003128.3823312534.5
2.38Kurt Busch$9,30085.6365.538
2.25Joey Logano$9,70063.754416
1.50Chris Buescher$7,2002018.5012211823
1.50Paul Menard$6,9002220.5021202021
0.75Joey Gase$4,8003534.2532.5363632.5
0.63Landon Cassill$5,0003332.3835333328.5
0.50Austin Dillon$6,8002322.5031192218
0.50Daniel Hemric$6,2002625.5036232320
0.25Reed Sorenson$4,9003433.7532.5353532.5
0.00William Byron$8,3001313.001881511
-0.13Kevin Harvick$10,30044.132211.51
-0.75Erik Jones$9,10099.75814215
-1.25Kyle Busch$11,50012.251152
-1.88Brad Keselowski$9,50078.889109.57
-2.25Ryan Preece$6,1002729.252628.52834.5
-2.63Clint Bowyer$8,5001214.63161513.514
-2.75Ross Chastain$6,0002830.7529323230
-3.00Bubba Wallace$6,6002427.0028272825
-3.63Martin Truex Jr$10,70036.633811.54
-5.13Ty Dillon$6,4002530.133028.53131
-6.00Ryan Blaney$8,7001117.002018219
-6.50Ryan Newman$8,1001420.5019221922
-7.38Denny Hamlin$11,10029.381089.510
-8.63Matt DiBenedetto$7,4001927.6327253028.5
-11.50Kyle Larson$10,000516.5015161619

Adjusted Statistics to Determine Bargains and Busts

PRICE RANK - AVG RANKDriverLV2 DK SalaryDK Pts Per RaceAvg Running PositionAvg FinishAvg. Dom. Pts
9.88Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,10043.7510.0009.203.85
9.13Alex Bowman$8,00059.0510.8007.6017.85
5.00David Ragan$5,70023.0523.2023.600.75
5.00BJ McLeod$4,60013.0033.7533.000.50
4.88Jimmie Johnson$7,70042.6010.8008.407.50
4.75Chase Elliott$8,90057.5509.2008.2015.55
4.00Michael McDowell$5,80021.0521.6021.600.45
3.25Daniel Suarez$7,60043.8014.4012.008.40
3.00Matt Tifft$5,20025.5526.2024.200.15
2.63Aric Almirola$7,80044.8511.0010.204.05
2.63Corey Lajoie$5,60024.2026.8023.400.20
2.38Kurt Busch$9,30057.7510.0007.0011.95
2.25Joey Logano$9,70063.4509.4005.6015.45
1.50Chris Buescher$7,20043.9015.8012.401.20
1.50Paul Menard$6,90030.0015.4016.001.80
0.75Joey Gase$4,80014.2536.5035.000.25
0.63Landon Cassill$5,00013.0033.0032.400.40
0.50Austin Dillon$6,80015.9014.8019.003.80
0.50Daniel Hemric$6,20012.2520.0021.002.15
0.25Reed Sorenson$4,90014.2534.2533.250.25
0.00William Byron$8,30039.6010.2011.409.20
-0.13Kevin Harvick$10,30064.8007.4009.8034.00
-0.75Erik Jones$9,10053.6011.6006.006.20
-1.25Kyle Busch$11,50068.2006.8008.0030.40
-1.88Brad Keselowski$9,50051.8010.6009.4014.40
-2.25Ryan Preece$6,10020.6025.0024.200.20
-2.63Clint Bowyer$8,50042.8512.2010.207.45
-2.75Ross Chastain$6,00016.8530.2030.000.35
-3.00Bubba Wallace$6,60018.4024.0024.400.60
-3.63Martin Truex Jr$10,70064.0010.2009.8017.80
-5.13Ty Dillon$6,40016.0025.0025.400.30
-6.00Ryan Blaney$8,70032.6014.6017.2011.10
-6.50Ryan Newman$8,10037.7015.8015.201.30
-7.38Denny Hamlin$11,10045.8010.2009.409.40
-8.63Matt DiBenedetto$7,40019.0022.0025.200.40
-11.50Kyle Larson$10,00043.2512.8011.802.95

As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.