As the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend, NASCAR Fantasy nerds have to be excited with the amount of same-season data we have with these 1.5-mile tracks. So far, we’ve hit Atlanta, Texas, Kansas, Charlotte, Chicagoland, and Kentucky, but with the different package and track conditions at Atlanta, we really have five solid races of data to look back on to try and get a good idea of what to expect here at Las Vegas on Sunday night. Those are the five races that the following numbers are calculated using.
DraftKings Bargains and Busts for the South Point 400
Let me quickly explain how this chart works. First, I started with the driver listing from DraftKings and literally ranked them 1 through 37 depending on price level. I then looked at different statistics from the 1.5-mile tracks this season, and ranked those drivers accordingly. Those statistics are: DraftKings Points scored per race, Average Running Position in those five races, Average Finish over those five races, and Average DraftKings Dominator Points per race. So, for example, the driver with the best average finish over those five races got a ranking of 1, while the worst got a ranking of 37. The driver with the most average DK Pts over those five races got a ranking a 1 in that category, the driver with the least per race got a ranking of 37. And so on and so forth. If there were any ties, the rankings were added together and divided by the number of drivers tied, and they were all given the same ranking.
Once those rankings were done, I averaged the four rankings to create the Avg Rank (column 5 in the table below), and then subtracting that Avg Rank from the Price Rank. This, essentially, gives us Bargains and Busts based on this season’s 1.5-mile data; a higher number in column 1 (Price Rank – Avg Rank) says that that driver is a bargain at his price, while a lower number says he’s probably not worth the price tag.
| PRICE RANK - AVG RANK | Driver | LV2 DK Salary | Price Rank | Avg Rank | DK Pts Rank | Avg Run. Pos. Rank | Avg Finish Rank | Avg. Dom. Pts Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.50 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,100 | 21 | 6.50 | 10 | 5 | 4.5 | 17 |
| 8.50 | Alex Bowman | $8,000 | 15 | 6.50 | 5 | 12 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 8.00 | Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 16 | 8.00 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 16 |
| 6.00 | Chase Elliott | $8,900 | 10 | 4.00 | 6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 6 |
| 5.67 | Garrett Smithley | $4,700 | 36 | 30.33 | 24 | 34 | 33 | 25.5 |
| 5.00 | Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 32 | 27.00 | 22 | 30 | 29 | 37 |
| 4.67 | Corey Lajoie | $5,600 | 31 | 26.33 | 23 | 31 | 25 | 35 |
| 4.50 | David Ragan | $5,700 | 30 | 25.50 | 25 | 25.5 | 26 | 24 |
| 4.33 | Jimmie Johnson | $7,700 | 17 | 12.67 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 4.17 | Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 29 | 24.83 | 27 | 24 | 23.5 | 28 |
| 4.00 | Chris Buescher | $7,200 | 20 | 16.00 | 13 | 21 | 14 | 23 |
| 3.00 | Kurt Busch | $9,300 | 8 | 5.00 | 7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 8 |
| 2.67 | Paul Menard | $6,900 | 22 | 19.33 | 20 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 2.67 | Joey Logano | $9,700 | 6 | 3.33 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 2.67 | Daniel Suarez | $7,600 | 18 | 15.33 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 12 |
| 2.50 | BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 37 | 34.50 | 33 | 35 | 35.5 | 27 |
| 1.33 | William Byron | $8,300 | 13 | 11.67 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 10 |
| -0.33 | Ryan Preece | $6,100 | 27 | 27.33 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| -0.50 | Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 34 | 34.50 | 32 | 36 | 35.5 | 33 |
| -0.67 | Landon Cassill | $5,000 | 33 | 33.67 | 34 | 33 | 34 | 30 |
| -1.33 | Kevin Harvick | $10,300 | 4 | 5.33 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| -1.33 | Joey Gase | $4,800 | 35 | 36.33 | 35 | 37 | 37 | 35 |
| -1.83 | Daniel Hemric | $6,200 | 26 | 27.83 | 37 | 23 | 23.5 | 20 |
| -2.00 | Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 23 | 25.00 | 36 | 17 | 22 | 18 |
| -2.67 | Ross Chastain | $6,000 | 28 | 30.67 | 28 | 32 | 32 | 31 |
| -3.17 | Kyle Busch | $11,500 | 1 | 4.17 | 1 | 2 | 9.5 | 2 |
| -3.67 | Martin Truex Jr | $10,700 | 3 | 6.67 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
| -4.00 | Bubba Wallace | $6,600 | 24 | 28.00 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 25.5 |
| -4.50 | Erik Jones | $9,100 | 9 | 13.50 | 11 | 20 | 9.5 | 15 |
| -4.67 | Clint Bowyer | $8,500 | 12 | 16.67 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 14 |
| -5.00 | Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 25 | 30.00 | 31 | 29 | 30 | 32 |
| -5.33 | Ryan Newman | $8,100 | 14 | 19.33 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| -6.00 | Denny Hamlin | $11,100 | 2 | 8.00 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 11 |
| -6.33 | Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 7 | 13.33 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 7 |
| -9.33 | Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 11 | 20.33 | 21 | 19 | 21 | 9 |
| -9.50 | Matt DiBenedetto | $7,400 | 19 | 28.50 | 29 | 25.5 | 31 | 29 |
| -12.00 | Kyle Larson | $10,000 | 5 | 17.00 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 19 |
DraftKings Statistics to Determine Bargains and Busts
| PRICE RANK - AVG RANK | Driver | LV2 DK Salary | DK Pts Per Race | Avg Running Position | Avg Finish | Avg. Dom. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.50 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,100 | 41.46 | 11.00 | 10.33 | 3.29 |
| 8.50 | Alex Bowman | $8,000 | 54.88 | 12.50 | 09.33 | 15.21 |
| 8.00 | Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 41.54 | 11.50 | 11.17 | 3.54 |
| 6.00 | Chase Elliott | $8,900 | 53.71 | 10.67 | 09.33 | 13.04 |
| 5.67 | Garrett Smithley | $4,700 | 18.50 | 34.00 | 32.00 | 0.50 |
| 5.00 | Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 23.13 | 27.17 | 25.83 | 0.13 |
| 4.67 | Corey Lajoie | $5,600 | 22.67 | 27.50 | 24.50 | 0.17 |
| 4.50 | David Ragan | $5,700 | 18.29 | 24.50 | 24.50 | 0.63 |
| 4.33 | Jimmie Johnson | $7,700 | 35.33 | 12.17 | 12.00 | 6.33 |
| 4.17 | Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 17.54 | 22.50 | 23.00 | 0.38 |
| 4.00 | Chris Buescher | $7,200 | 40.67 | 16.67 | 13.67 | 1.00 |
| 3.00 | Kurt Busch | $9,300 | 48.54 | 10.67 | 10.33 | 10.21 |
| 2.67 | Paul Menard | $6,900 | 26.50 | 15.83 | 17.33 | 1.50 |
| 2.67 | Joey Logano | $9,700 | 56.79 | 11.33 | 07.50 | 13.13 |
| 2.67 | Daniel Suarez | $7,600 | 39.08 | 15.33 | 14.00 | 7.25 |
| 2.50 | BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 11.20 | 34.40 | 33.80 | 0.40 |
| 1.33 | William Byron | $8,300 | 34.67 | 11.17 | 12.83 | 8.17 |
| -0.33 | Ryan Preece | $6,100 | 18.17 | 25.50 | 25.33 | 0.17 |
| -0.50 | Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 12.00 | 34.60 | 33.80 | 0.20 |
| -0.67 | Landon Cassill | $5,000 | 11.17 | 33.67 | 33.17 | 0.33 |
| -1.33 | Kevin Harvick | $10,300 | 55.33 | 08.17 | 11.83 | 28.83 |
| -1.33 | Joey Gase | $4,800 | 10.83 | 37.00 | 36.00 | 0.17 |
| -1.83 | Daniel Hemric | $6,200 | 7.79 | 20.33 | 23.00 | 1.79 |
| -2.00 | Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 10.17 | 15.50 | 21.67 | 3.17 |
| -2.67 | Ross Chastain | $6,000 | 15.29 | 30.83 | 31.00 | 0.29 |
| -3.17 | Kyle Busch | $11,500 | 57.29 | 08.50 | 11.67 | 27.13 |
| -3.67 | Martin Truex Jr | $10,700 | 55.67 | 11.67 | 11.33 | 14.83 |
| -4.00 | Bubba Wallace | $6,600 | 14.17 | 24.67 | 25.17 | 0.50 |
| -4.50 | Erik Jones | $9,100 | 41.33 | 16.17 | 11.67 | 5.17 |
| -4.67 | Clint Bowyer | $8,500 | 31.79 | 15.00 | 14.67 | 6.29 |
| -5.00 | Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 12.42 | 26.50 | 27.00 | 0.25 |
| -5.33 | Ryan Newman | $8,100 | 34.25 | 17.00 | 16.67 | 1.08 |
| -6.00 | Denny Hamlin | $11,100 | 42.17 | 11.83 | 10.67 | 8.00 |
| -6.33 | Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 40.92 | 14.17 | 13.83 | 12.25 |
| -9.33 | Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 26.08 | 16.00 | 20.50 | 9.25 |
| -9.50 | Matt DiBenedetto | $7,400 | 14.50 | 24.50 | 27.50 | 0.33 |
| -12.00 | Kyle Larson | $10,000 | 34.13 | 15.17 | 16.33 | 2.46 |
Adjusted Bargains and Busts Rankings
Below is the same general rankings chart as the one two spots above, but in this one the worst performance for each driver in the statistical categories has been removed. Think of this as a “mulligan” of sorts if a driver had an off-night in that five-race span.
| PRICE RANK - AVG RANK | Driver | LV2 DK Salary | Price Rank | Avg Rank | DK Pts Rank | Avg Run. Pos. Rank | Avg Finish Rank | Avg. Dom. Pts Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.88 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,100 | 21 | 11.13 | 14 | 5.5 | 8 | 17 |
| 9.13 | Alex Bowman | $8,000 | 15 | 5.88 | 5 | 11.5 | 4 | 3 |
| 5.00 | David Ragan | $5,700 | 30 | 25.00 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 24 |
| 5.00 | BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 37 | 32.00 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 26 |
| 4.88 | Jimmie Johnson | $7,700 | 17 | 12.13 | 17 | 11.5 | 7 | 13 |
| 4.75 | Chase Elliott | $8,900 | 10 | 5.25 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| 4.00 | Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 29 | 25.00 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 27 |
| 3.25 | Daniel Suarez | $7,600 | 18 | 14.75 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| 3.00 | Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 32 | 29.00 | 22 | 30 | 28 | 36 |
| 2.63 | Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 16 | 13.38 | 11 | 13 | 13.5 | 16 |
| 2.63 | Corey Lajoie | $5,600 | 31 | 28.38 | 23 | 31 | 25 | 34.5 |
| 2.38 | Kurt Busch | $9,300 | 8 | 5.63 | 6 | 5.5 | 3 | 8 |
| 2.25 | Joey Logano | $9,700 | 6 | 3.75 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 1.50 | Chris Buescher | $7,200 | 20 | 18.50 | 12 | 21 | 18 | 23 |
| 1.50 | Paul Menard | $6,900 | 22 | 20.50 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 21 |
| 0.75 | Joey Gase | $4,800 | 35 | 34.25 | 32.5 | 36 | 36 | 32.5 |
| 0.63 | Landon Cassill | $5,000 | 33 | 32.38 | 35 | 33 | 33 | 28.5 |
| 0.50 | Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 23 | 22.50 | 31 | 19 | 22 | 18 |
| 0.50 | Daniel Hemric | $6,200 | 26 | 25.50 | 36 | 23 | 23 | 20 |
| 0.25 | Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 34 | 33.75 | 32.5 | 35 | 35 | 32.5 |
| 0.00 | William Byron | $8,300 | 13 | 13.00 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 11 |
| -0.13 | Kevin Harvick | $10,300 | 4 | 4.13 | 2 | 2 | 11.5 | 1 |
| -0.75 | Erik Jones | $9,100 | 9 | 9.75 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| -1.25 | Kyle Busch | $11,500 | 1 | 2.25 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| -1.88 | Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 7 | 8.88 | 9 | 10 | 9.5 | 7 |
| -2.25 | Ryan Preece | $6,100 | 27 | 29.25 | 26 | 28.5 | 28 | 34.5 |
| -2.63 | Clint Bowyer | $8,500 | 12 | 14.63 | 16 | 15 | 13.5 | 14 |
| -2.75 | Ross Chastain | $6,000 | 28 | 30.75 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 30 |
| -3.00 | Bubba Wallace | $6,600 | 24 | 27.00 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 25 |
| -3.63 | Martin Truex Jr | $10,700 | 3 | 6.63 | 3 | 8 | 11.5 | 4 |
| -5.13 | Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 25 | 30.13 | 30 | 28.5 | 31 | 31 |
| -6.00 | Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 11 | 17.00 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 9 |
| -6.50 | Ryan Newman | $8,100 | 14 | 20.50 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| -7.38 | Denny Hamlin | $11,100 | 2 | 9.38 | 10 | 8 | 9.5 | 10 |
| -8.63 | Matt DiBenedetto | $7,400 | 19 | 27.63 | 27 | 25 | 30 | 28.5 |
| -11.50 | Kyle Larson | $10,000 | 5 | 16.50 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 19 |
Adjusted Statistics to Determine Bargains and Busts
| PRICE RANK - AVG RANK | Driver | LV2 DK Salary | DK Pts Per Race | Avg Running Position | Avg Finish | Avg. Dom. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.88 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,100 | 43.75 | 10.00 | 09.20 | 3.85 |
| 9.13 | Alex Bowman | $8,000 | 59.05 | 10.80 | 07.60 | 17.85 |
| 5.00 | David Ragan | $5,700 | 23.05 | 23.20 | 23.60 | 0.75 |
| 5.00 | BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 13.00 | 33.75 | 33.00 | 0.50 |
| 4.88 | Jimmie Johnson | $7,700 | 42.60 | 10.80 | 08.40 | 7.50 |
| 4.75 | Chase Elliott | $8,900 | 57.55 | 09.20 | 08.20 | 15.55 |
| 4.00 | Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 21.05 | 21.60 | 21.60 | 0.45 |
| 3.25 | Daniel Suarez | $7,600 | 43.80 | 14.40 | 12.00 | 8.40 |
| 3.00 | Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 25.55 | 26.20 | 24.20 | 0.15 |
| 2.63 | Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 44.85 | 11.00 | 10.20 | 4.05 |
| 2.63 | Corey Lajoie | $5,600 | 24.20 | 26.80 | 23.40 | 0.20 |
| 2.38 | Kurt Busch | $9,300 | 57.75 | 10.00 | 07.00 | 11.95 |
| 2.25 | Joey Logano | $9,700 | 63.45 | 09.40 | 05.60 | 15.45 |
| 1.50 | Chris Buescher | $7,200 | 43.90 | 15.80 | 12.40 | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Paul Menard | $6,900 | 30.00 | 15.40 | 16.00 | 1.80 |
| 0.75 | Joey Gase | $4,800 | 14.25 | 36.50 | 35.00 | 0.25 |
| 0.63 | Landon Cassill | $5,000 | 13.00 | 33.00 | 32.40 | 0.40 |
| 0.50 | Austin Dillon | $6,800 | 15.90 | 14.80 | 19.00 | 3.80 |
| 0.50 | Daniel Hemric | $6,200 | 12.25 | 20.00 | 21.00 | 2.15 |
| 0.25 | Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 14.25 | 34.25 | 33.25 | 0.25 |
| 0.00 | William Byron | $8,300 | 39.60 | 10.20 | 11.40 | 9.20 |
| -0.13 | Kevin Harvick | $10,300 | 64.80 | 07.40 | 09.80 | 34.00 |
| -0.75 | Erik Jones | $9,100 | 53.60 | 11.60 | 06.00 | 6.20 |
| -1.25 | Kyle Busch | $11,500 | 68.20 | 06.80 | 08.00 | 30.40 |
| -1.88 | Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 51.80 | 10.60 | 09.40 | 14.40 |
| -2.25 | Ryan Preece | $6,100 | 20.60 | 25.00 | 24.20 | 0.20 |
| -2.63 | Clint Bowyer | $8,500 | 42.85 | 12.20 | 10.20 | 7.45 |
| -2.75 | Ross Chastain | $6,000 | 16.85 | 30.20 | 30.00 | 0.35 |
| -3.00 | Bubba Wallace | $6,600 | 18.40 | 24.00 | 24.40 | 0.60 |
| -3.63 | Martin Truex Jr | $10,700 | 64.00 | 10.20 | 09.80 | 17.80 |
| -5.13 | Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 16.00 | 25.00 | 25.40 | 0.30 |
| -6.00 | Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 32.60 | 14.60 | 17.20 | 11.10 |
| -6.50 | Ryan Newman | $8,100 | 37.70 | 15.80 | 15.20 | 1.30 |
| -7.38 | Denny Hamlin | $11,100 | 45.80 | 10.20 | 09.40 | 9.40 |
| -8.63 | Matt DiBenedetto | $7,400 | 19.00 | 22.00 | 25.20 | 0.40 |
| -11.50 | Kyle Larson | $10,000 | 43.25 | 12.80 | 11.80 | 2.95 |
