Another 1.5-mile track is upon us, as the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway is set to close out Round 2 of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs this weekend. Before we get to analyze the practice speeds and everything else, though, let’s take a look at how these drivers have performed on similar tracks this season.
So far in 2019, we’ve raced at these 1.5-mile tracks: Atlanta, Las Vegas (twice), Kansas, Charlotte, Chicagoland, and Kentucky. For this post’s purpose, we’re excluding Atlanta from the statistical calculations because of the track surface (it’s very old and rough with tire wear coming into play majorly) as well as the fact that we weren’t running the “new” NASCAR package fully in that race.
DraftKings Bargains and Busts for the Hollywood Casino 400
Let me quickly explain how this chart works. First, I started with the driver listing from DraftKings and literally ranked them 1 through 40 depending on price level. I then looked at different statistics from the 1.5-mile tracks this season, and ranked those drivers accordingly. Those statistics are: DraftKings Points scored per race, Average Running Position in those five races, Average Finish over those five races, and Average DraftKings Dominator Points per race. So, for example, the driver with the best average finish over those five races got a ranking of 1, while the worst got a ranking of 40. The driver with the most average DK Pts over those five races got a ranking a 1 in that category, the driver with the least per race got a ranking of 40. And so on and so forth. If there were any ties, the rankings were added together and divided by the number of drivers tied, and they were all given the same ranking.
Once those rankings were done, I averaged the four rankings to create the Avg Rank (column 5 in the table below), and then subtracting that Avg Rank from the Price Rank. This, essentially, gives us Bargains and Busts based on this season’s 1.5-mile data; a higher number in column 1 (Price Rank – Avg Rank) says that that driver is a bargain at his price, while a lower number says he’s probably not worth the price tag.
| PRICE RANK - AVG RANK | Driver | KAN2 DK Salary | Price Rank | Avg Rank | DK Pts Rank | Avg Run. Pos. Rank | Avg Finish Rank | Avg. Dom. Pts Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 21 | 11.00 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 16 |
| 08.67 | Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 23 | 14.33 | 9 | 21 | 13 | 24 |
| 08.00 | Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 16 | 08.00 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| 06.00 | Parker Kligerman | $5,000 | 35 | 29.00 | 23 | 32 | 32 | 22 |
| 05.67 | David Ragan | $5,500 | 31 | 25.33 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 28 |
| 05.33 | Alex Bowman | $8,600 | 12 | 06.67 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 6 |
| 05.17 | William Byron | $8,200 | 14 | 08.83 | 13 | 4.5 | 9 | 10 |
| 05.00 | Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 33 | 28.00 | 24 | 30 | 30 | 40 |
| 04.33 | Joey Logano | $9,800 | 6 | 01.67 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 03.33 | Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 29 | 25.67 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
| 03.00 | Josh Bilicki | $4,700 | 38 | 35.00 | 33 | 36 | 36 | 30 |
| 02.67 | Jimmie Johnson | $8,000 | 15 | 12.33 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 14 |
| 02.67 | Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 18 | 15.33 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 11 |
| 02.33 | Chase Elliott | $10,100 | 5 | 02.67 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 02.17 | Paul Menard | $6,900 | 22 | 19.83 | 20 | 19.5 | 20 | 21 |
| 01.67 | JJ Yeley | $5,100 | 34 | 32.33 | 28 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
| 01.33 | Corey Lajoie | $5,900 | 28 | 26.67 | 22 | 31 | 27 | 37.5 |
| 00.83 | Ryan Newman | $7,300 | 19 | 18.17 | 17 | 19.5 | 18 | 23 |
| 00.00 | Timmy Hill | $4,500 | 39 | 39.00 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 30 |
| -00.67 | Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 36 | 36.67 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 36 |
| -00.67 | Joey Gase | $4,800 | 37 | 37.67 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 39 |
| -01.00 | Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 2 | 03.00 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| -01.00 | Martin Truex Jr | $10,800 | 3 | 04.00 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| -01.00 | Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 10 | 11.00 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
| -01.00 | Bubba Wallace | $6,100 | 27 | 28.00 | 31 | 27 | 26 | 33 |
| -01.33 | Ty Dillon | $6,200 | 26 | 27.33 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 26 |
| -02.67 | Ross Chastain | $5,600 | 30 | 32.67 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 35 |
| -02.67 | Landon Cassill | $5,300 | 32 | 34.67 | 35 | 34 | 35 | 34 |
| -03.00 | Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | 7 | 10.00 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| -03.67 | Denny Hamlin | $10,500 | 4 | 07.67 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
| -04.00 | Austin Dillon | $7,200 | 20 | 24.00 | 34 | 16 | 22 | 19 |
| -04.00 | Daniel Hemric | $6,600 | 24 | 28.00 | 38 | 23 | 23 | 20 |
| -04.33 | Ryan Preece | $6,400 | 25 | 29.33 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 37.5 |
| -04.83 | Erik Jones | $8,400 | 13 | 17.83 | 15 | 22 | 16.5 | 15 |
| -06.50 | Kyle Busch | $11,400 | 1 | 07.50 | 6 | 4.5 | 12 | 2 |
| -06.83 | Kyle Larson | $9,400 | 8 | 14.83 | 14 | 14 | 16.5 | 18 |
| -08.33 | Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 11 | 19.33 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 13 |
| -10.00 | Ryan Blaney | $9,200 | 9 | 19.00 | 19 | 17 | 21 | 8 |
| -10.67 | Matt DiBenedetto | $7,600 | 17 | 27.67 | 27 | 25 | 31 | 27 |
DraftKings Statistics to Determine Bargains and Busts
| Driver | KAN2 DK Salary | DK Pts Per Race | Avg Running Position | Avg Finish | Avg. Dom. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 61.50 | 10.57 | 07.71 | 17.21 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,800 | 60.93 | 11.00 | 09.86 | 16.07 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 56.89 | 07.57 | 10.43 | 28.04 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,100 | 55.39 | 10.14 | 08.57 | 14.25 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,600 | 54.54 | 12.57 | 08.86 | 13.25 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,400 | 53.54 | 10.86 | 12.71 | 23.96 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | 43.57 | 14.14 | 12.29 | 11.00 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,500 | 40.46 | 11.86 | 11.29 | 07.32 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 40.11 | 17.00 | 14.29 | 00.96 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 39.29 | 11.14 | 11.43 | 03.57 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 37.75 | 11.57 | 14.43 | 09.04 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 36.89 | 12.29 | 12.57 | 03.61 |
| William Byron | $8,200 | 36.64 | 10.86 | 12.00 | 07.64 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,400 | 36.25 | 14.57 | 15.14 | 02.96 |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | 36.00 | 18.29 | 15.14 | 05.29 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 35.68 | 14.86 | 14.86 | 07.54 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,300 | 35.29 | 16.57 | 15.71 | 01.00 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,000 | 34.79 | 12.43 | 11.86 | 05.50 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,200 | 31.89 | 15.14 | 18.29 | 09.32 |
| Paul Menard | $6,900 | 28.21 | 16.57 | 16.86 | 01.50 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 26.71 | 15.43 | 16.14 | 05.57 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,900 | 22.43 | 27.71 | 25.00 | 00.14 |
| Parker Kligerman | $5,000 | 22.33 | 28.00 | 28.00 | 01.33 |
| Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 21.68 | 27.29 | 26.43 | 00.11 |
| David Ragan | $5,500 | 17.25 | 24.29 | 24.14 | 00.54 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,200 | 16.79 | 25.57 | 25.43 | 00.79 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,600 | 16.75 | 23.71 | 26.57 | 00.75 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,100 | 16.50 | 33.00 | 32.00 | 00.50 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 16.46 | 22.14 | 23.14 | 00.89 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,400 | 16.43 | 25.71 | 25.57 | 00.14 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,100 | 16.29 | 24.57 | 24.86 | 00.43 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,600 | 15.18 | 31.00 | 31.00 | 00.32 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,700 | 14.50 | 34.00 | 33.00 | 00.50 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,200 | 12.79 | 15.00 | 20.29 | 02.93 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 | 11.93 | 32.86 | 32.57 | 00.36 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 11.17 | 35.00 | 34.33 | 00.17 |
| Joey Gase | $4,800 | 09.88 | 37.25 | 36.50 | 00.13 |
| Daniel Hemric | $6,600 | 08.96 | 19.43 | 22.14 | 01.54 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,500 | 06.50 | 38.50 | 38.50 | 00.50 |
Adjusted Bargains and Busts Rankings
Below is the same general rankings chart as the one two spots above, but in this one the worst performance for each driver in the statistical categories has been removed. Think of this as a “mulligan” of sorts if a driver had an off-night in that five-race span.
| PRICE RANK - AVG RANK | Driver | KAN2 DK Salary | Price Rank | Avg Rank | DK Pts Rank | Avg Run. Pos. Rank | Avg Finish Rank | Avg. Dom. Pts Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08.50 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 21 | 12.50 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| 06.50 | Parker Kligerman | $5,000 | 33 | 26.50 | 22 | 32 | 32 | 20 |
| 05.63 | Alex Bowman | $8,600 | 12 | 06.38 | 6 | 11.5 | 2 | 6 |
| 04.75 | David Ragan | $5,500 | 31 | 26.25 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 29 |
| 04.13 | Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 23 | 18.88 | 12 | 22 | 17.5 | 24 |
| 03.63 | Joey Logano | $9,800 | 6 | 02.38 | 2 | 3.5 | 1 | 3 |
| 03.50 | Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 29 | 25.50 | 29 | 24 | 24 | 25 |
| 03.25 | Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 16 | 12.75 | 13 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 17 |
| 02.88 | William Byron | $8,200 | 14 | 11.13 | 15 | 6 | 12.5 | 11 |
| 02.63 | Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 18 | 15.38 | 17 | 17 | 17.5 | 10 |
| 02.50 | Jimmie Johnson | $8,000 | 15 | 12.50 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 14 |
| 02.50 | Timmy Hill | $4,500 | 36 | 33.50 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 26 |
| 01.75 | Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 32 | 30.25 | 24 | 30 | 31 | 36 |
| 01.13 | Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 10 | 08.88 | 8 | 8.5 | 10 | 9 |
| 00.88 | Chase Elliott | $10,100 | 5 | 04.13 | 5 | 3.5 | 3 | 5 |
| 00.75 | Paul Menard | $6,900 | 22 | 21.25 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 |
| 00.50 | Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 34 | 33.50 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 32 |
| 00.25 | Joey Gase | $4,800 | 35 | 34.75 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 34 |
| -00.50 | Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | 7 | 07.50 | 7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 7 |
| -00.63 | Martin Truex Jr | $10,800 | 3 | 03.63 | 1 | 5 | 4.5 | 4 |
| -00.75 | Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 2 | 02.75 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| -00.88 | Corey Lajoie | $5,900 | 28 | 28.88 | 23 | 31 | 27.5 | 34 |
| -01.00 | Daniel Hemric | $6,600 | 24 | 25.00 | 33 | 23 | 23 | 21 |
| -01.00 | Ryan Newman | $7,300 | 19 | 20.00 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| -01.00 | Ty Dillon | $6,200 | 26 | 27.00 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 27 |
| -01.13 | Bubba Wallace | $6,100 | 27 | 28.13 | 28 | 27 | 27.5 | 30 |
| -01.25 | Erik Jones | $8,400 | 13 | 14.25 | 9 | 19 | 14 | 15 |
| -02.25 | Ross Chastain | $5,600 | 30 | 32.25 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 31 |
| -02.50 | Austin Dillon | $7,200 | 20 | 22.50 | 31 | 18 | 22 | 19 |
| -03.00 | Kyle Busch | $11,400 | 1 | 04.00 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| -05.00 | Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 11 | 16.00 | 20 | 15 | 16 | 13 |
| -05.75 | Ryan Preece | $6,400 | 25 | 30.75 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 34 |
| -06.00 | Denny Hamlin | $10,500 | 4 | 10.00 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| -06.25 | Kyle Larson | $9,400 | 8 | 14.25 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 18 |
| -06.75 | Ryan Blaney | $9,200 | 9 | 15.75 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 8 |
| -10.00 | Matt DiBenedetto | $7,600 | 17 | 27.00 | 26 | 25 | 29 | 28 |
Adjusted Statistics to Determine Bargains and Busts
| Driver | KAN2 DK Salary | DK Pts Per Race | Avg Running Position | Avg Finish | Avg. Dom. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,800 | 68.75 | 09.67 | 08.33 | 18.75 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 67.83 | 08.83 | 06.17 | 19.83 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 65.04 | 06.83 | 08.50 | 32.21 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,400 | 62.00 | 08.50 | 09.83 | 27.13 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,100 | 58.88 | 08.83 | 07.50 | 16.54 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,600 | 57.96 | 11.17 | 07.33 | 15.21 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | 53.08 | 11.17 | 08.33 | 12.58 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 48.54 | 10.67 | 10.33 | 10.29 |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | 45.33 | 14.83 | 11.00 | 6.17 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,400 | 44.21 | 12.50 | 11.17 | 3.46 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,500 | 43.21 | 10.50 | 10.33 | 8.38 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 42.71 | 16.33 | 13.33 | 1.13 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,800 | 41.67 | 10.67 | 10.67 | 4.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 41.46 | 11.00 | 10.33 | 4.13 |
| William Byron | $8,200 | 41.08 | 10.00 | 10.67 | 8.42 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,000 | 40.75 | 11.33 | 08.83 | 6.33 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,500 | 39.08 | 14.00 | 13.33 | 8.54 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,300 | 38.33 | 15.50 | 14.33 | 1.17 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,200 | 38.29 | 13.83 | 15.17 | 10.88 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 35.08 | 13.17 | 12.67 | 6.42 |
| Paul Menard | $6,900 | 31.42 | 15.83 | 15.67 | 1.75 |
| Parker Kligerman | $5,000 | 25.75 | 27.50 | 26.50 | 2.00 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,900 | 23.67 | 27.17 | 24.17 | 0.17 |
| Matt Tifft | $5,200 | 23.46 | 26.50 | 25.17 | 0.13 |
| David Ragan | $5,500 | 21.04 | 23.17 | 23.33 | 0.63 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,600 | 20.88 | 21.50 | 24.50 | 0.88 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,200 | 20.50 | 24.17 | 23.83 | 0.92 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,100 | 20.17 | 24.00 | 24.17 | 0.50 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 19.21 | 21.33 | 22.00 | 1.04 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,400 | 18.17 | 25.33 | 24.67 | 0.17 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,200 | 18.00 | 14.33 | 17.83 | 3.42 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,600 | 16.46 | 30.50 | 30.17 | 0.38 |
| Daniel Hemric | $6,600 | 12.88 | 19.00 | 20.33 | 1.79 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,900 | 12.80 | 34.60 | 33.80 | 0.20 |
| Joey Gase | $4,800 | 11.83 | 37.00 | 36.00 | 0.17 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,500 | 7.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | 1.00 |
