Texas Motor Speedway, race #34 of #36 for the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. Crazy, isn’t it? Texas is also our last real “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile track of the season, so not only do we have specific track data to go over, but also similar track data in the form of eight other races from this year. Here at Texas, only the last five races are relevant because this track was repaved/reconfigured after 2016, and Kevin Harvick has finished 1st or 2nd in three of those five races. He’s on the pole for this Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, too.
Here are some helpful links to the qualifying results and practice speeds from this weekend.
Statistics on 1.5-mile Tracks in 2019
As the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, NASCAR Fantasy nerds have to be excited with the amount of same-season data we have with these 1.5-mile tracks. So far, we’ve hit Atlanta, Las Vegas (twice), Texas, Kansas (twice), Charlotte, Chicagoland, and Kentucky, but with the different package and track conditions at Atlanta, we really have eight solid races of data to look back on to try and get a good idea of what to expect here at Texas on Sunday afternoon. Those are the eight races that the following numbers are calculated using.
Below you will find the average statistics for each driver in the following categories: DraftKings points scored per race, average running position, average finish, and average DraftKings dominator points per race. You can sort each column by clicking on it, and the table is, by default, sorted by average DraftKings points scored per race.
| Driver | TX2 DK Salary | DK Pts Per Race | Avg Running Position | Avg Finish | Avg. Dom. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,500 | 61.09 | 10.38 | 09.38 | 16.47 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 59.06 | 10.88 | 08.88 | 15.44 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,400 | 58.16 | 08.25 | 10.25 | 24.66 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,200 | 55.97 | 10.38 | 11.50 | 23.09 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,100 | 55.78 | 09.63 | 07.75 | 13.03 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,200 | 52.88 | 13.25 | 09.13 | 12.00 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,800 | 50.31 | 11.00 | 10.00 | 12.81 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 40.59 | 17.13 | 14.13 | 00.84 |
| William Byron | $8,000 | 40.34 | 10.50 | 11.13 | 07.59 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | 39.69 | 14.00 | 13.13 | 09.94 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 39.47 | 11.88 | 13.13 | 07.97 |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | 39.31 | 17.00 | 14.13 | 06.19 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,200 | 39.03 | 13.75 | 15.00 | 07.28 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,800 | 36.50 | 13.13 | 13.00 | 03.50 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,500 | 36.00 | 12.00 | 12.88 | 03.38 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,600 | 35.00 | 12.75 | 11.63 | 04.88 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,400 | 30.34 | 14.13 | 18.63 | 09.97 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,200 | 30.28 | 14.25 | 17.00 | 07.16 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 29.50 | 15.13 | 15.13 | 04.88 |
| Paul Menard | $7,300 | 28.56 | 16.38 | 17.00 | 01.44 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,800 | 27.25 | 19.25 | 18.75 | 00.88 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,900 | 22.06 | 27.75 | 25.38 | 00.19 |
| Parker Kligerman | $5,200 | 21.38 | 29.00 | 28.25 | 01.13 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,400 | 20.44 | 25.25 | 23.88 | 00.19 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,600 | 19.78 | 23.13 | 25.13 | 00.66 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,000 | 18.25 | 32.50 | 31.00 | 00.25 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,500 | 17.75 | 25.38 | 25.00 | 00.75 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,300 | 16.16 | 30.88 | 30.50 | 00.28 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,700 | 14.66 | 22.75 | 23.25 | 00.78 |
| David Ragan | $5,600 | 14.53 | 25.25 | 24.38 | 00.66 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | 12.94 | 15.88 | 20.25 | 02.69 |
| Garrett Smithley | $4,700 | 12.50 | 35.00 | 33.67 | 00.17 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,100 | 12.31 | 24.13 | 26.13 | 00.44 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,500 | 11.75 | 35.50 | 34.50 | 00.25 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,800 | 11.29 | 35.00 | 34.14 | 00.14 |
| Quin Houff | $4,600 | 11.13 | 34.00 | 33.50 | 00.38 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,100 | 10.44 | 33.00 | 33.13 | 00.31 |
| Daniel Hemric | $6,300 | 05.91 | 19.25 | 23.25 | 01.53 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,900 | 05.67 | 38.67 | 38.67 | 00.33 |
Adjusted Statistics on 1.5-mile Tracks in 2019
Everyone deserves a mulligan. The table below shows the same statistics as the previous, but with the worst result removed for each driver. For example, Brad Keselowski has finished 19th or better in all 1.5-mile races but ended up 36th in the first Texas race. The table below removes that first Texas race from the calculation. One again, this is sorted, by default, by average DraftKings points scored per race.
| Driver | TX2 DK Salary | DK Pts Per Race | Avg Running Position | Avg Finish | Avg. Dom. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,500 | 67.82 | 09.14 | 08.00 | 18.82 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,400 | 65.32 | 07.57 | 08.57 | 28.04 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | 64.14 | 09.43 | 07.71 | 17.43 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,200 | 63.57 | 08.29 | 08.86 | 25.68 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,100 | 58.82 | 08.43 | 06.71 | 14.82 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,200 | 55.57 | 12.14 | 07.86 | 13.50 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,800 | 54.07 | 09.71 | 09.00 | 14.50 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 48.96 | 11.14 | 09.43 | 09.04 |
| Erik Jones | $8,400 | 47.79 | 13.86 | 10.43 | 07.07 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | 47.29 | 11.43 | 09.86 | 11.14 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,200 | 46.25 | 11.86 | 11.57 | 08.32 |
| William Byron | $8,000 | 44.68 | 09.71 | 09.86 | 08.25 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 42.89 | 16.57 | 13.29 | 00.96 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,800 | 40.36 | 12.14 | 11.14 | 03.93 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,600 | 40.14 | 11.86 | 09.00 | 05.50 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,500 | 39.29 | 11.14 | 11.43 | 03.71 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,800 | 37.07 | 13.14 | 12.00 | 05.57 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,200 | 35.68 | 13.43 | 14.86 | 07.96 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,400 | 35.61 | 12.86 | 16.00 | 11.39 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,800 | 35.29 | 16.57 | 15.71 | 01.00 |
| Paul Menard | $7,300 | 31.36 | 15.71 | 16.00 | 01.64 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,600 | 23.75 | 21.14 | 23.14 | 00.75 |
| Parker Kligerman | $5,200 | 23.33 | 28.00 | 27.33 | 01.50 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,900 | 23.07 | 27.29 | 24.71 | 00.21 |
| Ryan Preece | $6,400 | 22.50 | 24.86 | 22.86 | 00.21 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,500 | 21.07 | 24.14 | 23.57 | 00.86 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,000 | 20.00 | 32.00 | 30.00 | 00.50 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | 17.43 | 15.00 | 18.14 | 03.07 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,300 | 17.39 | 30.43 | 29.71 | 00.32 |
| David Ragan | $5,600 | 17.39 | 24.29 | 23.71 | 00.75 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,700 | 16.75 | 22.14 | 22.29 | 00.89 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,100 | 16.29 | 23.57 | 24.86 | 00.50 |
| Garrett Smithley | $4,700 | 14.75 | 34.50 | 33.00 | 00.25 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,500 | 14.50 | 34.00 | 33.00 | 00.50 |
| Quin Houff | $4,600 | 14.50 | 33.33 | 32.00 | 00.50 |
| Reed Sorenson | $4,800 | 12.67 | 34.67 | 33.67 | 00.17 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,100 | 11.93 | 32.43 | 32.57 | 00.36 |
| Daniel Hemric | $6,300 | 08.96 | 18.86 | 21.86 | 01.75 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,900 | 06.50 | 38.50 | 38.50 | 00.50 |
The average starting position of winners at 1.5-mile tracks this season is 12.4, with only Brad Keselowski (started 4th at Kansas) and Kurt Busch (started 4th at Kentucky) getting the win after starting inside the top 5.
Starting position of winners on 1.5-mile tracks this year:
- Atlanta – Brad Keselowski (19th)
- Las Vegas – Joey Logano (10th)
- Texas – Denny Hamlin (6th)
- Kansas – Brad Keselowski (4th)
- Charlotte – Martin Truex, Jr. (14th)
- Chicagoland – Alex Bowman (8th)
- Kentucky – Kurt Busch (4th)
- Las Vegas 2 – Martin Truex, Jr. (24th)
- Kansas 2 – Denny Hamlin (23rd)
Favorite GPP Plays for Texas 2
Chris Buescher ($6,700) – To me, this is a no-brainer, but I could see some people getting a little scared to take Chris Buescher with his 20th-place starting spot, so we’ll talk about him. First, DraftKings under-priced this guy this weekend, so I pretty much had my mind made up earlier this week that he’d be on a bulk of my lineups. And if I can get an edge in ownership because of a top 20 qualifying effort, awesome. Here’s the thing: there’s a reason Buescher has been in the optimal lineup in four of the nine races at 1.5-mile tracks this season–he’s good at them! Going into Sunday, this #37 team has an average result of 14.1 on this track type (excluding Atlanta), and that’s tied for 14th-best in the series. Texas is Buescher’s home track and he’s finished between 15th and 23rd in each of the last six races here. Speed-wise, I think this #37 Chevrolet is good enough to easily get a top 15 this weekend.
Ryan Preece ($6,400) – I’ll gladly ride with both of the JTG Daugherty drivers as my low-dollar plays this weekend. Not only is Ryan Preece fresh off of a top 20 finish at Martinsville last weekend, but he now has four top 20 results in the last four Cup Series races, and that includes a 12th-place effort at Kansas a couple of weeks ago–the most recent 1.5-mile track we’ve visited. Overall this season, Ryan has an average result of 23.9 on this track type (excluding Atlanta), and I think this #47 team is running even better now late in the season. Preece will start from 28th on Sunday but should be able to challenge for a top 20.
AAA Texas 500 DraftKings Projections
You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | Starting Position | DraftKings Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Avg. Projected Finish | Proj Laps Led | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | $10,400 | 71.2 | 03.0 | 124 | $146 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 17 | $11,500 | 66.9 | 03.0 | 45 | $172 |
| Kyle Busch | 12 | $11,200 | 48.2 | 06.4 | 20 | $232 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | $10,800 | 47.1 | 05.4 | 41 | $230 |
| William Byron | 18 | $8,000 | 46.1 | 09.2 | 10 | $174 |
| Chase Elliott | 14 | $10,100 | 43.1 | 09.0 | 10 | $234 |
| Clint Bowyer | 24 | $8,800 | 42.4 | 12.8 | 0 | $208 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 23 | $8,600 | 39.8 | 13.6 | 0 | $216 |
| Joey Logano | 11 | $9,800 | 39.2 | 08.4 | 4 | $250 |
| Ryan Blaney | 15 | $9,400 | 38.9 | 10.8 | 6 | $242 |
| Kyle Larson | 13 | $9,200 | 38.3 | 10.6 | 10 | $240 |
| Paul Menard | 31 | $7,300 | 37.8 | 18.6 | 0 | $193 |
| Chris Buescher | 20 | $6,700 | 34.8 | 14.6 | 0 | $193 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | $9,000 | 34.4 | 07.8 | 8 | $262 |
| Erik Jones | 2 | $8,400 | 34.2 | 08.4 | 20 | $246 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8 | $9,600 | 32.3 | 11.6 | 14 | $297 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 9 | $6,800 | 29.9 | 11.8 | 2 | $227 |
| Aric Almirola | 6 | $7,500 | 27.8 | 11.6 | 4 | $270 |
| Ryan Newman | 25 | $7,800 | 27.4 | 20.8 | 0 | $285 |
| Alex Bowman | 5 | $8,200 | 26.2 | 13.4 | 16 | $313 |
| Austin Dillon | 21 | $7,000 | 24.6 | 20.2 | 0 | $285 |
| Ryan Preece | 28 | $6,400 | 23.2 | 24.4 | 0 | $276 |
| Michael McDowell | 27 | $5,700 | 21.4 | 24.8 | 0 | $266 |
| Corey Lajoie | 33 | $5,900 | 20.6 | 28.2 | 0 | $286 |
| Ross Chastain | 35 | $5,300 | 18.2 | 30.4 | 0 | $291 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7 | $7,200 | 16.2 | 17.4 | 0 | $444 |
| John H. Nemechek | 29 | $5,500 | 16.2 | 28.4 | 0 | $340 |
| David Ragan | 26 | $5,600 | 16.0 | 27.0 | 0 | $350 |
| Parker Kligerman | 30 | $5,200 | 15.6 | 29.2 | 0 | $333 |
| JJ Yeley | 34 | $5,000 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 0 | $357 |
| Ty Dillon | 19 | $6,500 | 13.8 | 24.6 | 0 | $471 |
| Bubba Wallace | 22 | $6,100 | 13.6 | 26.2 | 0 | $449 |
| Landon Cassill | 32 | $5,100 | 12.4 | 31.8 | 0 | $411 |
| Daniel Hemric | 16 | $6,300 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 0 | $630 |
| Garrett Smithley | 36 | $4,700 | 10.0 | 35.0 | 0 | $470 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 10 | $7,600 | 09.6 | 22.2 | 0 | $792 |
| Josh Bilicki | 39 | $4,500 | 09.4 | 36.8 | 0 | $479 |
| Quin Houff | 37 | $4,600 | 07.4 | 36.8 | 0 | $622 |
| Timmy Hill | 40 | $4,900 | 05.6 | 39.2 | 0 | $875 |
