Charlotte DraftKings NASCAR Picks, Projections, & Strategy Breakdown (Coca-Cola 600)

It’s Memorial Day Weekend and that means it is time for the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway! Or, as I like to call it, the “Make Sure Your Cooler Is Jam Packed Full Of Beer 600.” This is a looong race, boys and girls, and we should see plenty of changes in the race as we go from early evening to night (meaning some drivers being faster early, and some being faster late). We actually had a decent practice session to look at here on Friday (click here for speeds) and then qualifying on Saturday, where Kyle Larson won the pole. Check out the full starting lineup by clicking here. Now let’s goooo!!!!

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Charlotte Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

Charlotte Motor Speedway is a low-wear 1.5-mile track, and we’re running the 550hp package. Comparable races to look at this season are Las Vegas and Kansas, and if you want to look at all non-road course and non-superspeedway races under the 550hp package this season, you can throw in Homestead and Atlanta as well. With the latter two being such high-wear, they don’t compare super well to Charlotte, but take the numbers for what you want. I’ve included three charts below: 550hp statistics, low-wear 1.5-mile track statistics, and recent Charlotte statistics. The following information is included:

• Starts
• Finish
• ARP = average running position
• DR = driver rating
• FL = fastest laps (total)
• LL = laps led (total)
• T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
• Total Laps = laps completed (total)

2021 Driver Averages Under 550hp Intermediate Package

2021 Driver Averages At Low-Wear 1.5-mile Tracks

2019-2020 Driver Averages At Charlotte

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Charlotte

Lineup construction this week is going to be fun. Kyle Larson will likely be the main projected dominator by most people. Obviously there’s going to be strategy there in going a different route, but it’s most likely going to happen. Then it comes down to how you build the rest of your lineup; do you go with three sub-$7,000 drivers and then two more studs, or try to even it out a bit?

• There are 400 laps scheduled for Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600, which means there are 100 DraftKings FPTS up for grabs for laps led. Additionally, you can expect right around 350 green flag laps, giving us an additional 153 (approximately) DraftKings FPTS up for grabs for fastest laps.
• The track is going to change a lot over the course of this race, and it’s going to be up to the pit crews and crew chiefs to stay on top of that with adjustments.
• We’ve seen the Coca-Cola 600 absolutely dominated by one driver in the past, and as mentioned before, Kyle Larson seems primed to be the next driver to do it. In last year’s Coke 600, we had Alex Bowman lead for about 40% of the event, with several other “mini dominators.” In 2019, we had a three-dominator Coca-Cola 600, and then in 2018 it was Kyle Busch leading 377 of the 400 laps. Just to give you an idea of how these races can play out.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for Sunday’s race at Charlotte, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

• Kyle Larson
• Denny Hamlin
• Kyle Busch
• Brad Keselowski
• Martin Truex, Jr.
• Chase Elliott

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: William Byron, Kevin Harvick, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Charlotte according to my Projections is:

• Kyle Larson
• Kyle Busch
• Brad Keselowski
• Chris Buescher
• Michael McDowell
• Ryan Preece

Confidence Rating = 8.2/10. I really like this lineup. You’re assuming Kyle Larson dominates early and often and then you have the “heavy hitter” place differential plays with Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski. Sprinkle in top 20 efforts by Chris Buescher and Michael McDowell as well as a “just don’t wreck it” race from Ryan Preece and this one is going to be solid. Another lineup that is really close in points to the optimal one above is: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, and Justin Haley.

GPP / Tournament Picks

Ryan Blaney ($9,000) – Man, this is a cheap price on Ryan Blaney. As far as his track record here at Charlotte goes, YRB finished 3rd in both races here last season and also has the 3rd-best average running position over the last three Charlotte races. He’s also posted 43 fastest laps over those three races, and when you look at the two low-wear 1.5-mile tracks this year, Blaney has put up 32 fastest laps. In the 550hp intermediate package this season he has 61 total fastest laps. Starting 11th and only at $9,000, you just need a top 5 finish out of Blaney and his normal amount of fastest laps and he could find his way into the optimal lineup quite easily.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500) – My projections like Matty D a lot this weekend. They seem a little high to me, but at the same time, DiBenedetto has the 10th-best average running position (12.7) in the 550hp intermediate package this season, also ranks 10th in that category at low-wear 1.5-mile tracks specifically this season (11.7 ARP), and looking back at 2020, Matt had the 11th-best average running position (12.5). He starts 22nd and could pull off a top 10 finish. That’ll be good enough for DiBenedetto at his $7,500 price tag on DraftKings.

Corey LaJoie ($5,600) – My projections love Michael McDowell ($5,800) this weekend, and Ryan Preece ($6,000) as well as Justin Haley ($4,800) get some love as well, but I don’t mind pivoting to my boy, Corey LaJoie. He’s actually ran respectable here at Charlotte over the last few races, with finishes of 19th, 23rd, and 12th in the GO FAS car. And lately this season, LaJoie and his Spire car have found a little bit more speed, as he now has four finishes of 22nd or better over the last six races after a 20th-place run at COTA. LaJoie starts 26th on Sunday and will more than likely be overlooked by most DFS players considering he’s got guys with more place differential priced right around him.

Cash Core Drivers

Kyle Larson ($11,300) – Do I even have to explain this one? Let’s just look at some basic numbers. Larson with the 550hp intermediate package this season: 246 fastest and 509 laps led. The next highest have 86 and 146, respectively. On low-wear 1.5-mile tracks this year? Larson has 124 fastest laps and 235 laps led. The next highest have 48 and 99, respectively. This weekend, Kyle Larson has the opportunity to do what Martin Truex, Jr. did in the 2016 Coca-Cola 600, and that’s lead the thing from start to finish. I’ll go 100% ownership here and not blink twice.

Chris Buescher ($6,700) – I loved Chris Buescher coming into this weekend, and then he went out and qualified 27th. Lord have mercy. Buscher has an average finish of 11th on the low-wear 1.5-mile tracks this season and an average finish of 12th under the 550hp intermediate package in 2021. Additionally, he has two top 10s in his last three Charlotte starts and has finished 22nd or better in six of the last seven. No brainer here.

Ryan Newman ($6,400) – It’s hasn’t been confirmed but since this is an impound race, I would guess that Roush-Fenway Racing kind of set their car up to be better at the start of the race on Sunday, and that’s why the two cars sucked in qualifying on Saturday. But anyway, Ryan Newman is severely under-priced on DraftKings and he starts 25th, so here we are. Here at Charlotte, “The Rocketman” has finished 17th or better in 11 of his last 14 starts, and with the 550hp intermediate package this season, Newman has an average finish of 13.5.

Charlotte Coca-Cola 600 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.