DraftKings NASCAR All Star Race Picks & Driver Projections

The All Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway is this weekend, and DraftKings players are dealing with a couple of annoying issues that will put us in a time crunch on Sunday: one, the full starting lineup won’t be set until right before the All Star Race starts, because the three Stage winners from the Open race and the fan vote won’t be known until then. They will start from 18th through 21st in the All Star Race, obviously giving them the most place differential upside. We’re also dealing with a smaller field this weekend: 21 cars. So not only are the driver options limited, but it’s going to make it even more important to pick those drivers that finish up front (no matter where they start).

Starting positions 1st through 17th were set via random draw and Kyle Larson is on the pole for Sunday night. You can check out the full starting lineup by clicking here. Also be sure to check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this year’s All Star Race (click here). Now let’s goooo!!!!

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Intermediate Track Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

Texas is a low-wear intermediate track, so we can look at the three races on that track type this season (Las Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte). The cars this weekend will be running a package kind of similar to the 550hp package, but it’s going to come in a little lower and around 510hp. Obviously we don’t have any direct comparisons to that even lower horsepower package, so we’ll just look at the intermediate stats with the 550hp package this year. Both charts are below.

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for the All Star Race

The race format for the All Star Race is pretty wacky, and I went over it in pretty good detail in the video this week (below), so be sure to check that out. But here’s the format we’re working with (screenshot via Jayski):

• There are 100 laps scheduled for Sunday’s All Star Race at Texas and only green flag laps are going to count, which means there will definitely be 45 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps and 25 DraftKings FPTS for laps led. Unfortunately, trying to predict who will grab those dominator points (especially laps led) is difficult because of all of the inversions that are going to happen.
• My strategy this week? One, I’m not playing much, because this race is just going to be a bit crazy. And two, this is a great time to go heavy on the lower-owned drivers that are starting in that 1st through 8th range that won’t be getting as much exposure because of their limited place differential potential.
• Track position and short run speed should be what it takes to win this race on Sunday. I also like looking at which drivers are fast on restarts and early in the run, as well as who have made the most quality passes this season. I break that down in the video (below).

Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

GPP / Tournament Picks

Chase Elliott ($8,500) – Looking back at the Charlotte race, Kyle Larson definitely had the best car that night, but Chase Elliott was right there with him–and I think if this #9 team would’ve been able to keep their track position, they could’ve definitely won the race. As far as tournament plays this weekend, I love Chase along with William Byron ($8,000), but with Willy B starting worse and lower-priced, I think he’s going to be more chalkier, so I’m writing up Elliott. I do like combining both into a lineup as well, though. Anyway, Chase now has three straight top 3 finishes after his 2nd-place run at Sonoma and he hasn’t finished worse than 7th since Talladega back in March. He’s going to be a contender to win this All Star Race at Texas on Sunday.

Kyle Busch ($8,200) – I went over this a bit in the video (above) as to why I like Kyle Busch this weekend, just like my algorithm does. So when you think of game theory and lineup building, Kyle Larson ($10,200) is going to be a name that DraftKings players gravitate toward because, well, he’s been absolutely dominant this season. Most players, if they pick the pole sitter Larson on Sunday, won’t want to roll with Kyle Busch, too, because picking both front row starters typically isn’t a smart move. However, I don’t hate that idea, but I mainly like Kyle Busch as a pivot here off of both Larson and the place differential chalk. Rowdy ranks 3rd in average running position in both the 550hp intermediate package this season and just at low-wear intermediates in 2021. His average finish for both of those categories? The best in the series.

Cash Core Drivers

Alex Bowman ($9,300) – I originally had Ryan Blaney ($9,600) penciled in here but then I remembered after his awful performance at Charlotte that he’s dead to me, so I’m rolling with old faithful here in cash: “The Showman” Alex Bowman. He comes in at the lowest-priced among the three good drivers that were randomly selected to start the worst (Bowman, Hamlin, and Blaney) and AB has been pretty solid here at Texas, with two top 5s in his last three starts. Also, I like the momentum train that this #48 team is on right now; since his win at Dover, Bowman hasn’t finished worse than 9th, and he also wound up 5th at Charlotte a couple of weeks ago.

Kevin Harvick ($8,700) – No, I’m not writing up Kevin Harvick because of his ridiculously impressive record here at Texas (seven finishes of 6th or better in his last nine starts, including three wins). I like Kevin Harvick for two reasons: one, he has this stigma this season of not having great speed, which is true if you’re comparing the #4 Ford now to what it did last year, but Kevin Harvick is still more than capable of finishing top 5 any given weekend (by the way, he has finished 6th or better in half of the races this season) and people are still shying away a bit. But what I really like about Harvick this weekend is that crew Rodney Childers is a master at setting up the car for short run speed, which is what it’s going to take to win this race on Sunday.

Texas All Star Race DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

This will be updated to include the drivers that make the final All Star Race lineup once they are confirmed on Sunday night, so be sure to check back in that small time window.