The Bank of America ROVAL 400 is on Sunday at Charlotte, and this will be our seventh and final road course race of the season. When it comes to DFS and road courses, you kind of have to take a bit more different of an approach than normal because there aren’t many dominator points up for grabs as usual, which puts a bigger emphasis on place differential and finishing position. Additionally, we have a ton of chalk place differential plays coming up on Sunday thanks, mainly, to the Talladega race last weekend and the qualifying formula.

Make sure you check out this week’s episode of the Stacking Dennys podcast featuring RotoDoc and myself. This week’s episode was a very good one breaking down Sunday’s race. Click here to tune in. Now let’s goooo!!!!

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Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

Martin Truex, Jr. and Denny Hamlin at the Daytona Road Course 2020
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

We’re focusing on road course tracks specifically this weekend. So far in 2021, we have raced at the Daytona Road Course, COTA, Sonoma, Road America, Watkins Glen, and Indy Road Course. With how crazy the Indy Road Course was, I’m not even including it in my data set this weekend. Below you will find Driver Averages for the other five races, as well as a second table that takes COTA out of the equation since it was ran in the rain. The following statistics are included in these tables:

  • Starts
  • Finish
  • ARP = average running position
  • DR = driver rating
  • FL = fastest laps (total)
  • LL = laps led (total)
  • T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
  • Total Laps = laps completed (total)

2021 Driver Averages At Road Courses (Minus Indy Road Course)

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Chase Elliott505.408.1121.76986301368
Denny Hamlin507.009.4101.52013303368
Joey Logano509.210.599.7840287368
Kyle Larson510.005.9117.65488346368
Kurt Busch510.811.392.4312263368
Kyle Busch511.410.2106.71218282367
Martin Truex Jr512.408.6104.72638287338
AJ Allmendinger313.716.184.67287186
Ross Chastain513.812.989.954249324
Alex Bowman513.814.682.233197368
Chase Briscoe514.016.577.000181368
Christopher Bell514.412.591.6255246332
Chris Buescher515.017.172.510147368
Ryan Blaney515.218.172.610145368
Tyler Reddick516.815.578.755194356
Austin Dillon517.017.372.300179367
Brad Keselowski517.418.769.709147365
Erik Jones517.419.865.810106367
Michael McDowell518.818.672.133125368
Aric Almirola520.018.863.501123368
Kevin Harvick520.014.673.430200333
Matt DiBenedetto520.816.474.7510190363
Cole Custer520.818.963.700118338
Ryan Preece521.421.457.53273311
Ricky Stenhouse Jr521.622.558.12160316
Corey LaJoie522.822.853.00073368
William Byron523.613.683.51220251351
Bubba Wallace525.225.155.60077332
Daniel Suarez525.625.656.75269349
Ryan Newman526.823.547.70051367
Anthony Alfredo526.826.445.90035347
James Davison528.429.941.30010319
Justin Haley429.527.740.70020233
Josh Bilicki530.230.138.8007364
Cody Ware430.530.039.8009269
Garrett Smithley430.832.431.8000303
Austin Cindric231.516.880.6165689
Quin Houff535.233.227.6000260

2021 Driver Averages At Road Courses (Minus COTA & Indy Road Course)

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Denny Hamlin405.308.5108.32013273314
Chase Elliott406.508.1121.95781256314
Martin Truex Jr406.807.3112.32635274314
Kurt Busch406.811.296.4312227314
Christopher Bell408.511.5101.6245233314
Joey Logano410.811.293.5626238314
Kyle Busch411.810.8104.736237313
Kyle Larson412.005.7116.35184297314
Ryan Blaney414.817.375.010131314
Alex Bowman415.314.680.930164314
Chris Buescher415.517.371.510114314
Kevin Harvick415.813.583.730200314
Chase Briscoe416.017.273.000138314
Ross Chastain416.313.584.920206270
Cole Custer417.018.069.200117314
Brad Keselowski417.018.172.909135311
Erik Jones417.819.765.81094313
AJ Allmendinger218.017.180.66254132
Austin Dillon418.317.073.300158313
Aric Almirola418.518.266.701116314
Tyler Reddick418.815.779.455166302
Matt DiBenedetto420.316.376.4510167309
Ricky Stenhouse Jr421.522.757.21140262
Michael McDowell421.819.963.11089314
Bubba Wallace421.824.852.50066314
Ryan Preece423.023.452.03036257
Corey LaJoie423.523.550.50052314
Daniel Suarez423.824.258.65269303
Justin Haley326.027.242.90017221
William Byron426.812.783.71220225297
Ryan Newman427.523.747.90039313
James Davison428.329.440.3009265
Anthony Alfredo429.027.342.70028293
Cody Ware330.030.635.6005216
Josh Bilicki430.330.236.1006310
Garrett Smithley331.733.329.9000249
Quin Houff435.533.226.9000222
Austin Cindric138.026.786.5121935

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Charlotte ROVAL

This is a road course race, which means we’re focusing mainly on place differential and finishing position for DraftKings. Yes, there are going to be some dominator points, but with only 109 laps, it’s well below the usual amount from a “normal” race.

  • There are only 109 laps scheduled for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, so there aren’t going to be too many dominator points. We should focus mainly on finishing position and place differential. For laps led, there will be 27.25 DraftKings FPTS available and then for fastest laps, there will be approximately 40.5 DraftKings FPTS, as I’m expecting around 90 green flag laps. That is around the average for the previous Charlotte ROVAL.
  • There are essentially now two different classes of road course tracks: the “traditional” road courses (such as Watkins Glen and Sonoma) and then the rovals (such as here at Charlotte and at the Daytona Road Course). I would weigh the rovals slightly heavier in your data sets this week than the traditional courses.
  • There’s a ton of chalk this weekend, which means it could be huge to make just minor pivots with your lineups on Sunday. We’re going to see some drivers have huge ownerships compared to similar options, with similar upside. If two drivers have similar upsides, don’t be afraid to be overweight on one and underweight on the chalk.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for Sunday’s race at the Charlotte ROVAL, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

  • Chase Elliott
  • Kyle Larson
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Martin Truex, Jr.
  • Christopher Bell
  • Joey Logano
  • Ryan Blaney

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include Brad Keselowski, William Byron, Kyle Busch, and Alex Bowman.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Charlotte ROVAL according to my Projections is:

  • Chase Elliott
  • Kyle Larson
  • Matt DiBenedetto
  • Tyler Reddick
  • Chase Briscoe
  • Cole Custer

Confidence Rating = 8.3/10. At first glance, I really like this lineup as a tournament play. It gets you off of the Allmendinger and Preece chalk, but you’re covered with the DiBenedetto and Reddick place differential upside. With Chase Briscoe, you have a driver that can legitimately challenge for a top 10 finish, with the biggest question mark being Cole Custer. More on him later.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

GPP / Tournament Picks

Joey Logano practicing in the rain at Circuit of the Americas 2021
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Joey Logano ($8,100) – My algorithm reaallyyy likes Joey Logano this weekend. In DraftKings, he’s an incredibly risky place considering he starts 3rd, but I think Logano is going to be so under-owned for his salary that it makes sense to be overweight on him. Joey finished 2nd here at the Charlotte ROVAL last season and has led 10+ laps in three of the five useful road course races this season. Logano can get into the optimal on Sunday if he finishes top 3 and leads a decent amount of laps. My only concern is that he doesn’t really pick up fastest laps, but at $8,100, he is worth being overweight on.

Chase Briscoe ($7,600) – Chase Briscoe isn’t going to “come out of left field” on Sunday, but considering he’s priced in the same area as the chalk DraftKings plays of Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900) and Tyler Reddick ($7,800), Briscoe is probably going to be under-owned compared to where he should be. Chase will start from back in 22nd on Sunday and has finished 9th or better in three of the five useful road course races this year. He has a win here at the Charlotte ROVAL in the Xfinity Series and was one of the best in all three starts in that series as well. I love Briscoe as a pivot, or even in addition to the chalk this weekend.

Cole Custer ($5,700) – My projections love Cole Custer for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400, and I agree. I especially like the fact that so many people are more likely to go with Ryan Preece ($6,000) or Corey LaJoie ($5,500) in this price range. However, as I explained in my video, it’s really not going to take a miracle for Custer to outscore those two in DraftKings points on Sunday. Custer finished 9th here at the Charlotte ROVAL last season and has top 20 finishes in four of the five useful road course races this year (including a 13th at the Daytona Road Course).

Cash Core Drivers

AJ Allmendinger, driver of the #16 Hyperice Chevrolet, drives during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on August 15, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

AJ Allmendinger ($11,200) – In tournaments, I like being underweight on AJ Allmendinger, but when it comes to cash lineups, he’s a no-brainer on Sunday. The Dinger will start from back in 33rd when the Bank of America ROVAL 400 goes green this weekend and he has legitimate top 5 finishing upside. My projections have Allmendinger at an average finish of 10.5, but judging by his talent and how he’s performed on them this season, that’s too low. And even with that lower projected finish, Allmendinger is still the highest projected driver on the slate.

Kyle Larson ($10,300) – To me, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott ($10,700) are a coin flip this weekend. Larson starts two spots further back and comes at a $400 discount, though. Both have race-winning potential and both can dominate this race. Larson has slightly better upside but it’s not by much. Looking at the Playoff picture, Larson has a bit more of a cushion than Chase does, so he can afford to be more aggressive. On the road courses this season, Larson has two wins and four finishes of 3rd or better. He also led 52 laps in his two starts here at the Charlotte ROVAL while with Chip Ganassi Racing.

Tyler Reddick ($7,800) – What an under-price here. Reddick finished 12th here at the Charlotte ROVAL last season and has posted top 10 finishes in three of the six road course events in 2021. He’ll start from back in 29th on Sunday, too, which makes this. sub-$8,000 DraftKings salary make even less sense. Anyway, Reddick is a safe play with one of the highest ceilings in the field when it comes to DraftKings scoring. The #8 Chevrolet should be at least a top 15 car on Sunday with top 10 potential as well.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDraftKings SalaryAvg Proj FPTSProj OwnershipStarting PositionCeiling Proj FPTSAvg. Projected FinishDollar Per FPT
AJ Allmendinger$11,20059.6344.01%3382.8510.5$188
Chase Elliott$10,70059.5839.55%873.6502.5$180
Kyle Larson$10,30058.1840.90%1075.6002.8$177
Martin Truex Jr$10,10049.6320.35%559.3503.2$203
Tyler Reddick$7,80043.7334.84%2957.9015.5$178
Ross Chastain$9,30041.4719.19%2754.8015.8$224
William Byron$9,70041.3015.04%1147.7508.5$235
Joey Logano$8,10040.479.91%349.7505.7$200
Kurt Busch$8,70040.0719.27%1346.9009.3$217
Christopher Bell$8,40038.4310.63%454.3507.7$219
Kyle Busch$9,90037.7214.71%949.0009.0$262
Chase Briscoe$7,60037.3319.45%2257.6514.7$204
Matt DiBenedetto$7,90036.6229.18%3043.4518.5$216
Denny Hamlin$9,50035.3515.80%153.5507.8$269
Ryan Blaney$9,10035.3316.05%652.8009.5$258
Alex Bowman$8,90035.1718.09%1246.7510.7$253
Kevin Harvick$8,20029.9512.65%742.4509.7$274
Ryan Preece$6,00027.1728.16%3131.0023.3$221
Cole Custer$5,70026.6715.18%2351.0019.3$214
Brad Keselowski$8,50024.458.83%236.1513.3$348
Chris Buescher$6,90023.3313.63%1629.4517.5$296
Aric Almirola$7,30022.3312.30%2128.0020.8$327
Michael McDowell$7,10022.3311.39%1932.0020.3$318
Austin Dillon$6,50022.3315.30%1442.0017.3$291
Erik Jones$6,40021.8316.77%1732.0019.3$293
Joey Hand$6,20019.3310.11%3630.0029.8$321
Daniel Suarez$7,00016.8316.64%2523.0025.7$416
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$5,60015.5011.86%1825.0022.7$361
Justin Haley$7,40014.5010.38%3817.0032.2$510
Corey Lajoie$5,50013.0014.33%2624.0027.8$423
Scott Heckert$5,90011.832.33%3517.0032.7$499
Ryan Newman$6,70011.1712.67%2416.0027.8$600
Cody Ware$4,60007.001.98%3220.0033.8$657
Josh Bilicki$5,00006.832.23%3714.0036.2$732
Timmy Hill$4,90005.831.41%3914.0037.5$840
Garrett Smithley$4,70004.001.11%3413.0036.0$1,175
Anthony Alfredo$5,10001.505.02%2010.0030.3$3,400
Bubba Wallace$5,300-00.678.25%1509.0028.8-$7,950
Quin Houff$4,500-02.830.50%2805.0036.2-$1,588
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.