Let’s line ’em up and do it again! We just had a pretty wild race at Texas Motor Speedway last weekend, and now we’re off to Kansas Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday afternoon (hopefully). Both of these tracks are “low-wear” 1.5-mile venues, so we’re going to be targeting a lot of the same drivers this week as we were at Texas. One thing to note is that last weekend’s race ended up being a “punt week” and I don’t see that happening this weekend with how the DraftKings driver pricing is.

Weather may play a factor in Sunday’s race at Kansas, but no matter when the Hollywood Casino 400 gets started, it shouldn’t change expectations much. If this ends up being a night race, I will note that that tends to favor the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas a little bit. My FanDuel article for this weekend’s race can be viewed by clicking here, and since there’s so much crossover between these two DFS sites, I always recommend checking that out. Now let’s goooo!!!!

Make sure you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!

Speed Report & Loop Data Driver Averages

Kyle Busch leading the Pocono pack 2021
Photo Credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images

We’re focusing on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this weekend yet again. That means that, in addition to looking at last week’s race at Texas, we’re looking back at both Vegas races, the first Kansas race of the season, and the Charlotte race. Included in the data tables below is also the 2020 data from “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks. Also included is the data from this year under the 550hp package, as we’re running that again this weekend. Statistics included in the tables below are:

  • Starts
  • Finish
  • ARP = average running position
  • DR = driver rating
  • FL = fastest laps (total)
  • LL = laps led (total)
  • T15 = laps ran inside top 15 (total)
  • Total Laps = laps completed (total)

2021 Driver Averages At “Low Wear” 1.5-Mile Tracks

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Kyle Busch503.606.6111.61094314331535
Brad Keselowski505.408.6103.67310912881535
Chase Elliott505.807.8105.6964513821535
Kyle Larson506.403.1136.534091314901535
Denny Hamlin507.006.9111.97219614201535
William Byron508.206.2110.517710613711534
Kevin Harvick509.209.894.944012631534
Ryan Blaney510.009.2101.6761113021535
Tyler Reddick510.609.894.2761812791534
Austin Dillon511.013.084.436810131534
Matt DiBenedetto512.614.481.2728441532
Martin Truex Jr514.010.389.613813361512
Chris Buescher515.217.172.514135711526
Daniel Suarez515.419.268.29124941530
Joey Logano516.812.981.88710971497
Christopher Bell517.215.179.93639621528
Michael McDowell517.620.361.3591471529
Erik Jones517.818.469.83105451530
Chase Briscoe518.620.463.3203611530
Kurt Busch519.215.373.11107841271
Alex Bowman521.013.175.52858081233
Ricky Stenhouse Jr521.616.764.212235331222
Bubba Wallace523.220.362.91305121232
Ryan Newman523.222.156.71301561226
Cole Custer523.624.251.430551524
Ross Chastain525.025.458.01601731468
Aric Almirola525.223.155.500791436
Anthony Alfredo525.624.351.124781493
Corey LaJoie526.625.049.710311444
Ryan Preece527.424.547.2401041217
BJ McLeod529.430.440.10071490
Justin Haley531.230.237.700131210
Garrett Smithley531.432.434.90001480
Cody Ware533.432.533.50051195
Quin Houff533.433.931.20001215
Josh Bilicki534.234.530.30011455

2021 Driver Averages w/ 550hp Package

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Kyle Busch1104.107.2112.020820725732857
Kyle Larson1106.404.4125.3510127226672857
Denny Hamlin1107.807.6107.711924725212857
William Byron1107.907.0109.326826325282855
Ryan Blaney1108.809.7100.51264423742856
Kevin Harvick1108.911.891.679021022856
Brad Keselowski1109.410.498.313419322332853
Martin Truex Jr1111.310.192.3806424402834
Chase Elliott1112.310.595.712713022862751
Tyler Reddick1112.412.687.7941820382852
Alex Bowman1113.210.789.5793919492555
Austin Dillon1114.113.482.6581019222776
Matt DiBenedetto1115.214.278.624316722852
Chris Buescher1115.616.074.2717612142848
Kurt Busch1115.812.388.913115817792381
Joey Logano1117.512.783.2453721002805
Daniel Suarez1117.719.965.018148832834
Michael McDowell1117.819.564.620214892846
Christopher Bell1117.915.976.254914852843
Chase Briscoe1118.621.161.0705262850
Bubba Wallace1118.718.468.623510252553
Erik Jones1121.421.160.43605862843
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1121.418.165.1182310132433
Ryan Newman1122.520.361.13407302510
Aric Almirola1122.521.061.5683672752
Ryan Preece1123.623.852.41812232535
Cole Custer1123.722.052.7412802727
Ross Chastain1124.622.960.619105082739
Anthony Alfredo1127.226.246.134952781
Corey LaJoie1027.925.848.1300432436
Justin Haley1029.329.539.690382380
BJ McLeod1130.231.337.200142781
Cody Ware1131.231.735.710232493
Garrett Smithley1031.632.333.70092442
Quin Houff1133.133.631.10022496
Josh Bilicki1134.134.929.00012702

2020 Driver Averages At “Low Wear” 1.5-Mile Tracks

Driver
Starts
Finish
ARP
DR
FL
LL
T15
Total Laps
Brad Keselowski906.410.297.311010820252617
Kevin Harvick907.209.2106.918632821412616
Ryan Blaney907.706.2114.223622524332616
Kyle Larson109.009.995.950249267
Martin Truex Jr909.408.3105.920825721702603
Kyle Busch910.810.996.112717220122616
Joey Logano911.008.8105.66821921332526
Kurt Busch911.811.991.4778520402546
Denny Hamlin912.115.190.214424715342609
Matt DiBenedetto912.612.588.2224018242525
Austin Dillon913.612.884.6202318922594
Chase Elliott913.908.8103.622625720952615
Alex Bowman914.908.7100.217826922072600
Aric Almirola914.914.784.69016414752615
Cole Custer915.718.872.02158372502
Erik Jones915.914.580.463914512615
Tyler Reddick916.015.575.843514602505
Christopher Bell916.917.872.24259392601
William Byron917.712.685.5865718342534
Ryan Newman819.920.562.01114712328
Chris Buescher920.321.165.122105372507
Ricky Stenhouse Jr921.120.668.120315812289
Corey LaJoie922.124.852.0811622607
Michael McDowell922.323.755.2512542591
Ty Dillon922.624.753.7301552537
Ross Chastain224.520.164.280149668
Daniel Suarez926.328.744.440202590
Bubba Wallace927.123.955.1402901957
Ryan Preece929.124.252.811852252
Josh Bilicki732.034.433.09031842
James Davison132.034.534.2000258
Quin Houff932.633.934.12012496
Joey Gase934.636.128.84012145
BJ McLeod435.034.730.7108980
Timmy Hill935.335.529.414052051

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Kansas 2

  • Just like last week at Texas, the race here at Kansas this weekend is on a “low-wear” 1.5-mile track. This time, though, we’re looking at a scheduled distance of 400 miles instead of 500, or 267 laps in total. We could see a couple of dominators, or Kyle Larson could dominate the whole thing like he did last week.
  • You should expect a lot of green flag racing this weekend. I’m estimating 230 of the 267 laps will be ran under green, which means 103.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps. For laps led this week, the math on 267 laps is 66.75 DraftKings FPTS.
  • NASCAR is running the 550hp package this weekend. Other tracks where this package has been ran this season are: Homestead, both Las Vegas races, both Atlanta races, the first race here at Kansas, Charlotte, both Pocono races, Michigan, and last week’s Texas race.
  • Comparable tracks ran at this season would be the Charlotte, Texas, and Las Vegas. The tire combination Goodyear is bringing this weekend is the same from the first Kansas race. This same left-side tire was used in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte as well as at Nashville, while the right-side tire was used in both Las Vegas races, the Michigan race, and Texas last week.

Dominators

These are the potential dominators for this weekend’s race at Kansas, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

  • Kyle Larson
  • Kyle Busch
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Chase Elliott
  • Ryan Blaney
  • William Byron

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Brad Keselowski and Tyler Reddick.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown Video

Now for the video breakdown! Be sure to go here and subscribe to my YouTube channel if you haven’t already.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Kansas on Sunday according to my Projections is:

  • Kyle Larson
  • William Byron
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
  • Chris Buescher
  • Ryan Preece

Confidence Rating = 7.1/10. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the optimal build end up something like this on Sunday–three “top tier” drivers and then three drivers priced at $7,000 or below. With this particular lineup, I think you’re going to need Ryan Blaney to lead a decent chunk of the race considering he’s starting 2nd. It’s definitely risky to take both front row starters, but it’s not impossible to work out. Personally, I’d probably go with Erik Jones over Ryan Preece with that lineup above. Additionally, one alternate lineup that also projects high this week is: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece.

GPP / Tournament Picks

Denny Hamlin #11 FedEx Toyota at Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2021
Photo Credit: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

Kyle Busch ($10,700) – Both Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin ($11,000) should be considered strong tournament plays this weekend on DraftKings. After last week’s under-pricing of both drivers, DraftKings actually priced Rowdy and Hamlin in the range of where it’s kind of difficult to fit them into a lineup and feel great about it (with Larson in it anyway). As far as Kyle Busch goes, he’s finished 3rd or better in four of the five “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races this season and has the 3rd-most fastest laps at this track type in 2021 behind Kyle Larson and William Byron. He won here at Kansas back in May and has ended up inside the top 5 in nine of the last thirteen races at this track.

Ryan Blaney ($9,300) – It goes against conventional DFS wisdom to play both front row starters–especially at a 1.5-mile track–but with how Ryan Blaney is priced for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400, it could definitely work out. This season on this track type, Ryan Blaney has posted between 10 and 22 fastest laps in all five races, while finishing 6th or better in three of the five as well. Here at Kansas, Blaney typically races very well (he has finished 4th or better in 11 of the last 18 Stages) but hasn’t had a top 5 finish in the full race here since back in 2017. There’s a good chance that that changes this weekend, though.

Tyler Reddick ($8,400) – The #8 Richard Childress Racing team is bringing fast cars to the race track week after week right now, and there’s no doubt that Reddick is going to have a very strong car to work with here on Sunday at Kansas. This year on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Reddick has finished 9th or better in four of the five races while also posting between 12 and 20 fastest laps in four of the five as well. With a starting position of 12th and a DraftKings salary of only $8,400, Reddick can easily make it into the optimal lineup on Sunday at Kansas.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

Cash Core Drivers

Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, and William Byron, driver of the #24 Axalta Chevrolet, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on October 17, 2021 in Fort Worth, Texas.
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Kyle Larson ($11,700) – I’m not sure this one even needs an explanation, but here’s a quick recap of how Kyle Larson has performed on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season: three wins in five races, an average running position of 3.1, over 900 laps led, and a total of 340 fastest laps. To compare those last two numbers, 2nd-best in those categories have 196 (laps led) and 177 (fastest laps). Larson is on the pole for Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas and is a must-have in cash games, and really with any lineup you’re building. The 80.37 projected FPTS for Larson on Sunday is ultra conservative.

William Byron ($9,500) – Thanks to him being eliminated from Championship contention in the last round of the Playoffs, we now get William Byron starting outside of the top 8 for the three races in this round, and when you pair his 9th-place starting spot with the fact that he could actually challenge for the win here on Sunday, getting Byron at $9,500 on DraftKings is a steal. This year on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Willy B has posted an average of 35.4 fastest laps per race, and he’s coming off of a Texas race where he ended up with 57 fastest laps and a 2nd-place finish.

Chris Buescher ($6,300) – When Chris Buescher doesn’t run into issues on race day at a “low-wear” 1.5-mile track, he’s a legitimate top 15 contender. He finished 8th here at Kansas back in May, was 7th at Charlotte, and finished 14th in the first Las Vegas race this year. Last week at Texas, Buescher got caught up in a late wreck and ended up with a DNF but still finished 21st. His average running position in that race was 15.0. In the 550hp package this year, Buescher has an average finish of 15.6 and only one result worse than 21st, which is where he will start on Sunday here at Kansas. This is a mis-price by DraftKings and makes Buescher an incredible DFS value.

Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDraftKings SalaryAvg Proj FPTSProj OwnershipStarting PositionCeiling Proj FPTSAvg. Projected FinishDollar Per FPT
Kyle Larson$11,70080.3754.30%1131.2002.0$146
Denny Hamlin$11,00065.5817.70%685.6002.7$168
Kyle Busch$10,70065.3820.61%490.0502.7$164
William Byron$9,50057.0731.07%972.0505.0$166
Chase Elliott$10,00055.0225.86%584.5005.2$182
Ryan Blaney$9,30055.0224.61%289.5005.7$169
Kevin Harvick$8,90043.5019.85%1154.5008.2$205
Tyler Reddick$8,40043.1725.55%1259.7509.5$195
Alex Bowman$9,80042.5318.51%2555.5013.7$230
Brad Keselowski$9,10041.1317.91%358.1006.8$221
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,00037.7326.67%2854.7017.7$186
Austin Dillon$7,80035.2513.78%1444.4012.7$221
Christopher Bell$8,00034.1014.43%1051.4511.8$235
Joey Logano$8,70033.8715.64%847.4010.5$257
Bubba Wallace$7,40033.5216.11%2744.2519.3$221
Martin Truex Jr$10,40033.1015.48%750.1509.3$314
Chris Buescher$6,30032.0230.28%2139.8017.0$197
Matt DiBenedetto$6,80031.6220.80%1541.9014.3$215
Kurt Busch$8,50030.4710.61%1341.8013.3$279
Ryan Newman$7,30028.6718.04%3138.4523.0$255
Parker Kligerman$7,10024.1718.00%4030.0029.0$294
Ryan Preece$5,70024.0026.72%3237.0025.7$238
Chase Briscoe$6,60022.8315.66%1942.2520.2$289
Erik Jones$6,10021.8012.13%1736.2520.5$280
Ross Chastain$8,20021.5716.22%2438.8022.5$380
Daniel Suarez$6,40020.6214.63%1640.9020.3$310
Michael McDowell$6,20016.679.72%1827.9022.7$372
Cole Custer$6,00016.339.12%2225.4524.3$367
Anthony Alfredo$5,60016.1710.59%2925.0028.0$346
Aric Almirola$7,60015.678.26%2023.9023.0$485
Corey Lajoie$5,50011.837.98%2321.0027.2$465
Cody Ware$5,00011.171.53%3615.0032.8$448
Justin Haley$5,80009.835.38%3312.0032.0$590
Quin Houff$4,60009.001.33%3514.0033.7$511
Joey Gase$5,40006.171.19%3914.0036.8$876
David Starr$5,30004.001.12%3811.0038.0$1,325
Chad Finchum$5,20001.830.97%3708.0038.5$2,836
BJ McLeod$4,50001.500.89%2610.0033.3$3,000
Ryan Ellis$4,90001.000.54%3407.0036.5$4,900
Josh Bilicki$4,70000.500.21%3007.0035.3$9,400
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.