Phoenix Raceway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, and it will be the Penske Racing driver of Ryan Blaney that leads the field to the green as the #12 Ford looked blazing fast off the truck during both practice and qualifying on Saturday. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of Denny Hamlin will start in 2nd, as he looks to get his season back on track after starting off the year with three straight bad results.

Make sure you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!

DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Phoenix Raceway

Denny Hamlin leaning next to car at Pocono 2021
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
  • Phoenix is 1-mile flat track, which compares best to Richmond Raceway as well as New Hampshire Motor Speedway. You can also throw in Nashville Superspeedway when analyzing into shorter, flat tracks. Some people also include Martinsville when looking at short, flat tracks, but Martinsville is so much different than Phoenix that I personally am not weighing it very heavily this weekend.
  • This is a 312 lap race scheduled for Sunday afternoon, which means we’re looking at 78 FPTS up for grabs for laps led and probably around 120 FPTS for fastest laps, depending on the cautions. With so many dominator points available, that needs to be a focus with your DraftKings lineup.
  • Make sure you check out Dustin Maybin’s DraftKings preview for this race by clicking here. It has a ton of great information and history on top lineup construction tactics here at Phoenix.


These are the potential dominators for this weekend’s race at Phoenix, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Kyle Busch
  • Kyle Larson
  • William Byron
  • Joey Logano
  • Chase Elliott

Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Martin Truex, Jr., Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick, and Austin Cindric.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal DraftKings lineup for Phoenixx on Sunday according to my Projections is:

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Martin Truex, Jr.
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Kevin Harvick
  • Bubba Wallace
  • Todd Gilliland

DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Ruoff Mortgage 500

Ryan Blaney Pocono Fantasy NASCAR 2018 DraftKings FanDuel
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Ryan Blaney ($9,600) – The Penske Fords are always fast at short, flat tracks and this weekend is no exception. Ryan Blaney won the pole on Saturday and also put up some really fast lap times in practice, ranking 2nd-fastest behind Kyle Larson in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. As far as Phoenix Raceway goes, Young Ryan Blaney struggled here to start out but then in 2019 he started to figure it out. In the last six races at this track, Blaney has four results of 6th or better, three of which were finishes of 4th or better as well. He also led 30+ laps in both Phoenix races last season and should be able to put up a good amount of dominator points from the pole here on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) – Kevin Harvick is masterful at Phoenix Raceway, and with him starting back in 16th on Sunday, his $9,100 salary becomes even more attractive considering the place differential potential. Harvick is a nine-time winner here at Phoenix and hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in seventeen (not a typo) straight races at this track. Even last year, when this #4 team struggled quite a bit, Harvick finished 7th or better in all four Phoenix Stages and came home with results of 6th and 8th in. when the checkered flag waved over the two races. Looking at practice times this weekend, the #4 Ford ranked 4th or better in 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. Don’t over-think this one.

Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – As RotoDoc pointed out in his Action Network betting article this week, Todd Gilliland has a solid history on short, flat tracks in his racing career, and it’s not like he’s racing a back marker car here in the Cup Series even though sportsbooks (and DraftKings) continue to act like he is. At $4,900 and starting back in 33rd, Gilliland basically just needs to get through the entire race here at Phoenix on Sunday and he’s going to deliver sufficient FPTS for his salary with a good amount of upside considering he’s finished 23rd and 20th over the last two weeks. I’ll continue riding the #GillyGang train here as long as DraftKings keeps pricing Todd this low. This is an excellent week to use him and stock up on the “heavy hitter” drivers priced higher.

Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc

Phoenix Ruoff Mortgage 500 DraftKings Driver Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverDK SalaryAvg Proj FPTSStarting PositionAvg. Projected FinishDollar Per FPT
Ryan Blaney$9,60071.33104.0$135
Kyle Larson$11,80062.37703.8$189
Chase Elliott$10,70060.501906.5$177
Joey Logano$10,40059.431004.8$175
Kyle Busch$11,20058.651107.0$191
Martin Truex Jr$9,80058.552008.2$167
Denny Hamlin$10,10058.42204.3$173
Kevin Harvick$9,10053.601605.7$170
William Byron$9,40042.05308.3$224
Christopher Bell$8,30039.92408.3$208
Tyler Reddick$8,50038.351211.8$222
Ross Chastain$8,10038.321712.7$211
Aric Almirola$7,90035.80512.7$221
Austin Cindric$7,70035.50812.0$217
Kurt Busch$8,90033.131513.8$269
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,00033.003622.3$212
Austin Dillon$7,60028.181315.5$270
Brad Keselowski$8,20027.781817.8$295
Alex Bowman$8,70027.67912.3$314
Daniel Suarez$6,60027.472321.0$240
Bubba Wallace$6,40025.732721.2$249
AJ Allmendinger$7,20024.002923.0$300
Cole Custer$6,20021.672523.2$286
Justin Haley$6,00021.502824.0$279
Harrison Burton$5,70021.172423.2$269
Chris Buescher$6,70020.832624.2$322
Erik Jones$7,40019.731419.3$375
Ty Dillon$5,90017.672122.8$334
Todd Gilliland$4,90015.503329.7$316
Corey Lajoie$5,30013.003029.3$408
Michael McDowell$5,10011.832226.2$431
Chase Briscoe$6,90009.93620.3$695
BJ McLeod$4,60008.503433.3$541
Garrett Smithley$4,70007.333534.3$641
Cody Ware$4,50005.673233.7$794
Landon Cassill$5,50005.673133.0$971
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.