The NASCAR Cup Series is at Richmond Raceway this weekend for the Toyota Owners 400. Richmond is a 0.75-mile D-shaped flat track that compares most to Phoenix, where we raced at less than a month ago. In that race, Ryan Blaney had the dominant car early and led 143 laps, but it was Chase Briscoe who took over the final part of the race and ended up in victory lane after leading 101 laps. When it comes to Richmond, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have dominated recently, but with their lack of speed thus far in 2022, we’ll have to wait and see if that domination continues.
Jordan plans on once again going LIVE on YouTube Sunday morning to build DraftKings lineups and answer questions about the race. Make sure you pay attention to his Twitter feed (click here) and his YouTube channel (click here) on Sunday for the official time.
DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Richmond
- Last week, we focused on place differential and finishing position because the race at Circuit of the Americas was only 68 laps. That’s not the case this weekend. Sunday’s race at Richmond is scheduled for 400 laps, which means you have to nail the dominators in your lineup. Typically we see two dominators in a Richmond race. With 400 laps scheduled, we’re looking at 100 DraftKings FPTS for laps led and probably around 145 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps, depending on cautions.
- Again, Phoenix is the most similar track to Richmond, so we can definitely look back at that race earlier this year and cross-reference with this weekend’s practice data at Richmond to determine who should be fastest. One major difference between Phoenix and Richmond, though, is that typically Phoenix goes through some changes throughout the race, which causes comers and goers. At Richmond, the drivers that are fast typically stay up front all race unless they run into an issue.
- Another short, flat track that compares decently to Richmond is New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon). Some people throw in Nashville and Martinsville into the short, flat category, but those two really aren’t super comparable to Richmond, so don’t put a ton of weight into the history from those tracks.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Richmond on Sunday according to my Projections is:
- Ryan Blaney
- Joey Logano
- Alex Bowman
- Kevin Harvick
- Aric Almirola
- Austin Dillon
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond
Ryan Blaney ($9,400) – Oh, what a difference a year (and a new car) makes. Last year at Richmond, I made one of the biggest bets of my life on Christopher Bell (at plus-money odds) over Ryan Blaney at Richmond. Why? Because Ryan Blaney has historically struggled at Richmond, to the tune of an average finish of 22.2 and a best finish of 10th in eleven career starts. As I mentioned on the Stacking Dennys podcast this week, though (listen below), I think this is going to be the weekend that Young Ryan Blaney finally turns it all around at Richmond. He had the dominant car at Phoenix earlier this year for the first half of the race, and the #12 Ford was crazy fast this weekend in practice like it has been all year long. Blaney started to figure out Richmond a bit last season and with this new car I think he finally shows his true short, flat prowess in Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400.
Alex Bowman ($8,500) – You can’t pass up a Hendrick Motorsports driver that’s starting back in 28th. Alex Bowman tweeted after qualifying on Saturday that his #48 Chevrolet didn’t have speed in qualifying but it sure did on the long runs, and that’s what it’s going to take to have a good race in the Toyota Owners 400 on Sunday. In terms of ten-lap average, Bowman ranked 13th-best in that statistic during practice on Saturday. Looking at Richmond last year, Alex “stole” a win here in the first race and then came home 12th in the fall. At Phoenix last month, Bowman ended up finishing 14th and had the 11th-best Green Flag Speed.
Kevin Harvick ($8,000) – My first two picks were “safe” / cash plays. This is a “risky” / tournament play this weekend. Hopefully his starting position of 7th keeps some DraftKings players away from Kevin Harvick on Sunday. But with that being said, I love the $8,000 price tag here even despite the higher starting spot. Kevin Harvick has a great car for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond. As RotoDoc and I have talked about on the podcast before, when Harvick makes a long run and likes his car in practice, it’s a very good sign. This weekend, “Happy” ranked 5th in ten-lap average, 4th in fifteen-lap average, and 3rd in twenty-lap average. At Phoenix last month, Harvick had the 3rd-fastest Green Flag Speed and also put up the 4th-most fastest laps (20). His record here at Richmond isn’t quite as impressive, but he does nine finishes of 8th or better in the last eleven races at this track. I’ll gladly be overweight on Harvick this weekend and hope he emerges as a second dominator in the race.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
Richmond Toyota Owners 400 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default, it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DK Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Proj Own | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | $9,400 | 77.83 | 48.51% | 1 | 04.3 | $121 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,200 | 63.47 | 34.94% | 21 | 05.7 | $161 |
| Joey Logano | $9,200 | 61.32 | 17.40% | 11 | 04.5 | $150 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,500 | 58.73 | 35.41% | 28 | 10.7 | $145 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,500 | 54.88 | 28.53% | 15 | 06.8 | $191 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,600 | 54.03 | 26.69% | 6 | 06.2 | $178 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,900 | 53.12 | 23.26% | 8 | 09.5 | $168 |
| Kevin Harvick | $8,000 | 52.98 | 20.65% | 7 | 06.7 | $151 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,700 | 46.60 | 15.00% | 9 | 09.0 | $187 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,900 | 45.82 | 18.86% | 3 | 09.3 | $216 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,300 | 45.62 | 22.55% | 13 | 08.3 | $204 |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 44.13 | 14.91% | 2 | 09.3 | $204 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,700 | 42.42 | 14.95% | 10 | 12.0 | $182 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,200 | 41.25 | 23.27% | 16 | 10.2 | $199 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | 41.05 | 20.70% | 25 | 16.2 | $171 |
| Kurt Busch | $7,900 | 36.92 | 21.50% | 27 | 16.2 | $214 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,400 | 33.10 | 9.09% | 4 | 13.2 | $254 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,800 | 33.02 | 16.88% | 14 | 16.0 | $236 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,500 | 32.57 | 24.09% | 32 | 20.5 | $200 |
| Erik Jones | $7,600 | 27.97 | 10.43% | 5 | 15.8 | $272 |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,900 | 22.83 | 19.49% | 29 | 23.3 | $258 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,200 | 22.75 | 13.01% | 20 | 20.5 | $316 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,700 | 22.00 | 17.67% | 26 | 22.0 | $305 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,200 | 21.50 | 10.04% | 30 | 24.8 | $242 |
| Justin Haley | $6,300 | 21.33 | 19.94% | 36 | 27.3 | $295 |
| Cole Custer | $6,100 | 21.30 | 7.40% | 12 | 17.5 | $286 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,400 | 19.17 | 9.36% | 31 | 26.8 | $282 |
| Brad Keselowski | $7,400 | 18.50 | 13.43% | 19 | 22.5 | $400 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,800 | 17.30 | 10.40% | 18 | 21.8 | $393 |
| JJ Yeley | $4,500 | 13.83 | 1.87% | 35 | 31.3 | $325 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,600 | 11.00 | 15.33% | 24 | 27.7 | $600 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,500 | 10.17 | 4.11% | 22 | 26.8 | $541 |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 08.83 | 0.93% | 33 | 32.7 | $543 |
| Harrison Burton | $5,700 | 08.50 | 4.68% | 17 | 26.0 | $671 |
| Greg Biffle | $5,100 | 07.00 | 1.91% | 37 | 35.5 | $729 |
| BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 06.17 | 1.18% | 34 | 34.3 | $746 |
| Landon Cassill | $4,900 | 01.83 | 1.63% | 23 | 31.7 | $2,673 |
