It’s 4th of July weekend so that means the NASCAR Cup Series is at Road America in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin for the Kwik Trip 250 on Sunday. This will be the third road course race of the 2022 season, and Trackhouse Racing is undefeated on this track type thus far in the NextGen car, as Ross Chastain won at Circuit of the Americas and Daniel Suarez won at Sonoma. As far as Road America goes, this is a very abrasive race track and eats up tires quickly, so not only will the driver’s need a good setup and speed out of their race car to contend this weekend, but also be able to manage their tires over the course of a long run.
DraftKings Fantasy Strategy for Road America
- With this being the third road course race of the season, and with there being such a quick turnaround from Sonoma less than a month ago, I’m not expecting a lot of surprises in this race at Road America on Sunday. We know which cars are fast on the road courses this year, and as RotoDoc and I discussed on the Stacking Dennys podcast earlier this week, there’s no reason to think any teams are going to be significantly faster at this road course than they have in the previous two.
- This is a very short race at only 62 laps. That means we’re looking at just 15.5 DraftKings FPTS for laps led on Sunday and probably around 22.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps. In other words, don’t be overly concerned about dominator points! Putting together the best lineup this weekend will likely come down to place differential and finish points as opposed to dominator points.
- Circuit of the Americas is the best comparable track that we have to look at, so make sure you go back and watch that race from earlier this year.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Road America on Sunday according to my Projections is:
- Ryan Blaney
- AJ Allmendinger
- William Byron
- Kevin Harvick
- Daniel Suarez
- Justin Haley
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Qwik Trip 250
Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – A lot of people are going to gravitate toward William Byron ($9,000) since he starts back in 29th, and while some may combine Willy B with Ryan Blaney, I don’t mind pivoting off of Byron and going to Blaney here. Plain and simple, Blaney is a more consistent road course racer than Byron is. Looking at the two road course races this season, Blaney finished 6th at Circuit of the Americas and 6th at Sonoma as well, while Byron came home 12th and 9th in those two races (respectively). Looking at Green Flag Speed in those two races, Blaney was 5th-fastest at COTA and 6th-fastest at Sonoma while Byron was 12th- and 15th-fastest (respectively).
Daniel Suarez ($7,700) – There’s a lot of chalk this week, and Daniel Suarez is one of them, unfortunately. But the #99 Chevrolet was super fast at the start of Circuit of the Americas before getting caught up on a restart pile-up, and then Suarez went on to win at Sonoma a month ago. This weekend, Daniel will roll off the grid from 17th when the Kwik Trip 250 goes green, and should be good for at least a top 10 finish when it’s all said and done. At just $7,700 on DraftKings, that’s hard to pass up. Be warned, though: the #JordanJinx is on Suarez this weekend.
Justin Haley ($5,900) – To me, Justin Haley is a “free space” when building DraftKings lineups this weekend. You’re getting a driver for under $6,000 in salary that starts back in 34th but has a legitimate shot at a top 20 finish on Sunday. That’s not something you pass up in DFS. In practice on Saturday morning, Haley posted the 25th-fastest lap, and looking at the two other road course races this season, the #31 Chevrolet came home 15th at Circuit of the Americas and 12th at Sonoma. Here at Road America last season, Haley finished 25th despite being in the underfunded #77 car for Spire Motorsports. You don’t need much out of him this weekend to hit value at his price point.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
Road America Qwik Trip 250 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DK Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Proj Own | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | $11,100 | 49.07 | 31.80% | 1 | 04.5 | $226 |
| Ross Chastain | $10,300 | 48.08 | 30.53% | 12 | 05.8 | $214 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,200 | 47.28 | 25.39% | 19 | 07.8 | $195 |
| William Byron | $9,000 | 46.67 | 38.75% | 29 | 12.5 | $193 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,400 | 44.72 | 24.99% | 3 | 05.8 | $255 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,700 | 44.40 | 29.80% | 17 | 08.5 | $173 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $9,100 | 44.23 | 36.10% | 21 | 10.3 | $206 |
| Kevin Harvick | $8,100 | 39.83 | 22.08% | 28 | 15.5 | $203 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,900 | 38.67 | 17.76% | 16 | 10.3 | $230 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,600 | 38.33 | 19.43% | 15 | 10.7 | $250 |
| Austin Cindric | $8,500 | 37.68 | 11.67% | 5 | 08.0 | $226 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,200 | 34.83 | 16.33% | 14 | 11.8 | $293 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,200 | 32.95 | 14.77% | 8 | 09.0 | $249 |
| Joey Logano | $9,400 | 32.67 | 15.96% | 18 | 14.5 | $288 |
| Justin Haley | $5,900 | 31.67 | 20.47% | 34 | 22.2 | $186 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,600 | 29.53 | 10.65% | 4 | 09.7 | $291 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,800 | 28.83 | 15.60% | 13 | 13.5 | $375 |
| Chase Briscoe | $8,300 | 27.62 | 9.19% | 2 | 11.3 | $301 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,700 | 25.50 | 18.71% | 22 | 19.0 | $341 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,300 | 24.37 | 9.08% | 7 | 13.7 | $259 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,200 | 24.00 | 18.04% | 20 | 19.2 | $258 |
| Cole Custer | $6,100 | 23.67 | 13.93% | 10 | 14.7 | $258 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,900 | 23.33 | 27.63% | 33 | 26.0 | $296 |
| Erik Jones | $7,300 | 22.67 | 15.63% | 27 | 23.2 | $322 |
| Brad Keselowski | $6,600 | 20.00 | 14.91% | 11 | 16.8 | $330 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,800 | 19.40 | 7.06% | 6 | 15.0 | $351 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,100 | 19.00 | 12.94% | 24 | 23.7 | $374 |
| Todd Gilliland | $6,000 | 15.33 | 3.13% | 32 | 29.3 | $391 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,500 | 15.00 | 15.95% | 25 | 25.2 | $433 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,500 | 15.00 | 14.54% | 30 | 27.7 | $367 |
| Harrison Burton | $5,000 | 14.17 | 7.50% | 23 | 24.8 | $353 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,100 | 12.67 | 11.11% | 35 | 31.3 | $403 |
| Kyle Tilley | $4,600 | 10.67 | 6.21% | 37 | 33.5 | $431 |
| Loris Hezemans | $4,500 | 07.50 | 3.45% | 36 | 34.7 | $600 |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 05.67 | 2.82% | 31 | 32.7 | $847 |
| Joey Hand | $5,200 | 03.67 | 4.98% | 9 | 23.5 | $1,418 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,700 | 01.50 | 1.11% | 26 | 32.0 | $3,133 |
