FanDuel NASCAR Plays and Projections: Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350

The first road course race of the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season is this Sunday, and if you’re new to the Fantasy NASCAR world, be prepared for a doozy. The races at this serpentine tracks are predictable, but at the same time, a team’s day can go up in smoke in an instant; cautions aren’t thrown as freely here at these tracks since the course is so long, so if a car simply goes spinning by itself or runs off course, the race could stay green. Additionally, the long lap times here (it takes well over a minute to complete a lap) give teams plenty of opportunity to play the strategy game, so the running order will easily become all shuffled up. There’s only 110 laps scheduled for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, so it’s a relatively short race, but we won’t really know who the real contenders are until the last 15 or so laps.

FanDuel Driver Targets at Sonoma

Kevin Harvick ($12,600) – All aboard the Stewart-Haas train! This organization has been head and shoulders above the rest of the garage this season, and there’s no reason why that will change at Sonoma this weekend. Harvick was the highest-qualifying Ford of the bunch (6th) and is a contender to win back-to-back races at this track on Sunday. I only have Harvick projected to lead 16 laps in the Toyota/Save Mart 350, but if he gets out early, he could easily rack up 40+ laps led by the end of this thing. My only concern there is Martin Truex, Jr., who starts 2nd and looks to have a very good long run car. With that being said, Harvick had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour on Friday and he’s not known for running a bunch of laps unless he’s really happy with the car. He’s the defending winner of this racer and hasn’t finished worse than 6th here in the last three years. There’s no reason “Happy” should finish outside of that mark this weekend, either.

Clint Bowyer ($11,700) – The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series’ most recent winner just might make it two in a row here on Sunday. Yes, Clint Bowyer qualified back in 19th for the 2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350, but he’s got a car that is great on the long runs and falls off significantly less than others (according to Kyle Larson). Additionally, Bowyer is the best active driver here at Sonoma, at least when it comes to average finish, as he clocks in at 10.7 in that category. Clint went to victory lane here back in 2012 while with Michael Waltrip Racing, and has finished 5th or better five of his last seven starts at this track–including a 2nd-place finish last season, which was his first year with Stewart-Haas Racing. Bowyer had the fastest car in Practice #1 this weekend and then wound up 3rd-best in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He’s got 110 laps to pass 18 cars on Sunday, and the #14 Ford is more than capable of doing just that.

Aric Almirola ($8,300) – My highest projected driver in FanDuel this weekend is Kurt Busch ($10,600), and there’s no reason why you shouldn’t consider him for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350. From a strategy perspective, though, it might be wise to look at some pivot options. FanDuel really under-priced Kurt for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, and it doesn’t help that he’s starting way back in 23rd, which just adds on to the FPTS for place differential. However, because of those two factors, Busch should be one of the highest-owned in FanDuel on Sunday…so what if something happens to the #41 Ford? It’s not likely, but it’s definitely possible. Enter Aric Almirola, the fourth Stewart-Haas car. Now, Aric has never finished better than 14th here at Sonoma, but he also has never had any equipment worth a shit. The #10 Ford was 9th-fastest in Happy Hour here on Friday, and a big reason why Almirola is starting back in 24th on Sunday is because he was one of the cars to go out super early in qualifying with speedy dry still on the track. Momentum-wise, Almirola has an average finish of 9.7 over the last six Cup Series races, which is 6th-best in the series. He could end up being a steal here in FanDuel at $8,300.

Michael McDowell ($6,200) – We need some salary cap relief at Sonoma this weekend, and it’s looking like Michael McDowell might be the best option. He’s priced super cheap at $6,200 for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, and he also has a solid starting spot (22nd) to go along with it. That qualifying position is a little too high to use McDowell a lot over in DraftKings, but as far as FanDuel goes, I’m okay with it–and it may even make some people shy away from him. Looking at the road course races last season, McDowell came home 14th here at Sonoma and then managed a 12th-place finish at Watkins Glen, so that’s promising. Also, he’s in a little better equipment this year, so there’s another positive. Finally, McDowell looked speedy in both practice sessions here on Friday, posting the 7th-fastest lap in Practice #1 before posting the 10th-fastest lap in Happy Hour.

FanDuel Projections for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base points + laps led as well as the dollar per FPT. It assumes that all drivers projected to finish 11th or better will complete all laps, those projected 12th-16th will finish 2 laps down, those projected 17th-24th will finish 4 laps down, those projected 25th-30th will finish 6 laps down, and those projected 31st or worse will finish 8 laps down. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.