And it’s finally here: the Bristol Dirt Race! The NASCAR Cup Series is scheduled to run 250 laps around this half-mile dirt bullring on Sunday afternoon despite the drivers only having a couple of hours of practice time on the track. The qualifying “heat races” got rained out on Saturday, so we never really got to see any on-track action of these drivers actually racing. What could go wrong, right? Typically when we’re all worried about a race being a wreck-fest it ends up being calm–except for Daytona and Talladega, of course–but this Bristol Dirt Race could easily end up being a shit show of epic proportions.
Lineup Construction: As I said, there are 250 laps in this race, which equates to 25 dominator points in FanDuel for Sunday’s race. And while it would’ve definitely been possible for Kyle Larson to lead the vast majority of those laps starting from the pole, he will have to drop to the rear before this thing goes green. I think that will cause us to have a variety of dominators in this race, which will make lineup construction focusing on finishing position and place differential the key to a successful week. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about laps led this weekend; just make sure all five drivers in your FanDuel lineup have top 5 potential.
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FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Bristol Dirt (Cash Lineups)
Tyler Reddick ($7,800) – I wrote up Tyler Reddick as a cash game pick in my DraftKings article this week, and he’s one of the higher-priced drivers on that site. Here on FanDuel, Reddick is under-priced with legitimate top 5 upside on Sunday…if he can stay out of trouble. Click here to read my thoughts on Reddick in the DraftKings article. You’ll notice that my FanDuel Projections (below) don’t love Reddick–they just like him–but he has the highest projected ceiling.
Kurt Busch ($7,000) – Looking at my Projections (below), Kurt is the 5th-highest when it comes to projected FanDuel points on Sunday, yet his $7,000 ranks as 18th-highest. Yep, that much of a mismatch is going to put him as one of my highest-owned drivers on the slate, especially in cash lineups. Kurt was pretty strong in Practice #1 this weekend but even better in Practice #2, which is what we like to see. This #1 Chevrolet has really good long-run speed and Busch should be a contender for a top 10 finish in this Food City Dirt Race on Sunday.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Bristol Dirt (Tournament Lineups)
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,500) – Again, this is another driver I wrote up in my DraftKings article (click here). The entire Joe Gibbs Racing organization looked really strong to me during the two practice sessions here on Friday, and while Truex is a bit under-priced this weekend on FanDuel, I think with how strong the other guys are up top in the salary listing, as well as the place differential potential below Truex, that MTJ could go under-owned on Sunday. Never bet against the Auto Owners Insurance paint scheme!
William Byron ($4,500) – I almost wrote Byron up as a cash play this weekend, but since he’s starting up in 8th, and with his limited dirt racing experience, I think a lot of people are going to end up shying away from him. But seriously, what the hell is this pricing? William Byron at $4,500… jeesh. Anyway, my projections love Byron this week, and he’d be in play even if he was priced in that $8,000 to $10,000 range like normal. This race we’re getting him at half that price. Byron was 7th in ten-lap average during that final practice session on Friday.
Food City Dirt Race at Bristol FanDuel Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
Also included are “Ceiling” projections for each driver. This is the top possible score projected.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Bell | $13,500 | 66.92 | 15 | 77.60 | $202 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,000 | 65.70 | 26 | 80.70 | $198 |
| Kyle Busch | $12,000 | 64.07 | 4 | 76.60 | $187 |
| Denny Hamlin | $11,500 | 63.75 | 2 | 76.50 | $180 |
| Kurt Busch | $7,000 | 63.75 | 28 | 75.50 | $110 |
| Chase Briscoe | $9,500 | 62.75 | 25 | 74.00 | $151 |
| Kyle Larson | $14,000 | 62.62 | 1 | 76.00 | $224 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,500 | 61.72 | 5 | 75.00 | $170 |
| Joey Logano | $11,000 | 61.07 | 10 | 72.40 | $180 |
| Ryan Blaney | $12,500 | 60.80 | 3 | 74.00 | $206 |
| William Byron | $4,500 | 59.10 | 8 | 74.10 | $76 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,200 | 59.05 | 7 | 68.50 | $139 |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,800 | 59.00 | 27 | 81.00 | $132 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $8,800 | 58.25 | 13 | 68.00 | $151 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,700 | 57.25 | 20 | 73.50 | $169 |
| Austin Dillon | $10,000 | 54.07 | 9 | 69.40 | $185 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $6,200 | 53.00 | 12 | 68.50 | $117 |
| Kevin Harvick | $7,500 | 52.20 | 6 | 63.50 | $144 |
| Bubba Wallace | $9,200 | 51.70 | 19 | 66.70 | $178 |
| Stewart Friesen | $8,500 | 50.90 | 32 | 68.10 | $167 |
| Aric Almirola | $4,500 | 49.15 | 23 | 62.50 | $92 |
| Ty Dillon | $2,500 | 47.20 | 39 | 69.10 | $53 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,000 | 47.15 | 14 | 56.50 | $106 |
| Erik Jones | $5,800 | 46.90 | 24 | 64.50 | $124 |
| Cole Custer | $5,000 | 43.30 | 21 | 52.50 | $115 |
| Chris Buescher | $4,200 | 42.40 | 11 | 55.00 | $99 |
| Ryan Preece | $2,500 | 41.05 | 22 | 53.00 | $61 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 39.85 | 29 | 58.00 | $88 |
| Corey LaJoie | $2,000 | 39.85 | 30 | 52.50 | $50 |
| Ross Chastain | $4,500 | 39.55 | 17 | 55.00 | $114 |
| Daniel Suarez | $4,000 | 39.55 | 18 | 60.00 | $101 |
| Michael McDowell | $3,000 | 39.30 | 16 | 53.00 | $76 |
| Chris Windom | $6,500 | 39.00 | 36 | 54.00 | $167 |
| J.J. Yeley | $2,500 | 39.00 | 34 | 56.00 | $64 |
| Shane Golobic | $5,500 | 36.90 | 35 | 52.00 | $149 |
| Mike Marlar | $3,000 | 35.55 | 38 | 49.00 | $84 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 33.55 | 37 | 44.00 | $60 |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 30.05 | 31 | 41.00 | $100 |
| Quin Houff | $2,000 | 28.95 | 33 | 36.00 | $69 |
