We’re off to Richmond Raceway on Saturday night for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is a 0.75-mile flat track that compares very well to Phoenix as well as New Hampshire. The good news about these shorter, flat tracks is that they are super predictable; we know who the good drivers are on this track type, and very rarely do we see surprises. Kyle Larson is on the pole for Saturday night’s race and you can click here to see the full starting lineup. Also, you can click here to see the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Saturday night. Now let’s get to the FanDuel projections!
Kyle Larson has to start from the rear tonight but will still be scored from the 1st starting spot. I would recommend not playing him if you were going to.
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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal FanDuel lineup for Richmond Saturday night according to my Projections is:
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
- Matt DiBenedetto
- Erik Jones
Confidence Rating = 7.5/10. This is a very solid lineup build if Denny Hamlin is the main dominator on Saturday night. If Truex gets up there and leads the most laps, then it won’t be as solid, but good news: there’s enough cap leftover to switch out Hamlin for Truex with this lineup. You could also switch out Chase Elliott for Kevin Harvick in the top projected lineup, as they’re both very close in my projections. Looking at the highest projected lineup that includes both Hamlin and Truex, though, it actually includes a punt: JJ Yeley, plus Hamlin, Truex, Logano, and DiBenedetto…
FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Richmond 2 (Cash Lineups)
Joey Logano ($12,500) – Joey Logano doesn’t have the dominating upside of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. this weekend, but he can still contend for the win and should lead some laps along the way on Saturday night as well. Looking at the last seven short, flat track races, Logano has led 40+ laps in five of them, including 49 laps led here at Richmond in the first race this season. Now for the even better numbers. Over that same seven-race span, Joey Logano hasn’t finished worse than 4th. No, that’s not a typo. Zero finishes worse than 4th, and that includes the New Hampshire race this season when he was two laps down and had to fight all race to get back on the lead lap. Simply put, Logano is elite on this track type, and at $12,500 on FanDuel, he’s an extremely safe fantasy option on Saturday night.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800) – While I do think Austin Dillon ($8,500) has similar upside to DiBenedetto this weekend, the $700 price discount is huge with pricing the way it is this weekend (if you’re picking between the two that is). DiBenedetto is very strong on the shorter, flat tracks, and he will start back in 28th on Saturday night. What more could you ask for? On the short, flat tracks in 2021, Matty D has the 11th-best average running position (11.5) and the 10th-best average finish (11.3), and when you include the 2020 races as well, his average running position goes to 10th-best (11.9) while his average finish is also 10th-best (11.1). At worst, DiBenedetto is a mid-teens driver here at Richmond on Saturday night.
FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Richmond 2 (Tournament Lineups)
Brad Keselowski ($11,500) – With the way he’s ran during this 2021 season, Brad Keselowski has left a bad taste in many people’s mouths. And when it comes to FanDuel this weekend, Keselowski being priced just under always-popular Kyle Larson, and above place differential plays of Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and others, there’s a good chance that BK goes under-owned here. Don’t forget, though: short, flat tracks are Penske’s best track type, and Keselowski always gets to the front at one point or another at them. Looking at the seven races at short, flat tracks since the beginning of 2020, Brad has led 16+ laps in every single race, and 50+ laps in four of the seven. He also has the best average running position (4.8) and the 2nd-best average finish (5.1) on this track type over the last two years.
Christopher Bell ($10,000) – FanDuel priced up Christopher Bell this week to $10,000 but if we don’t see Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. split this race from a dominator perspective, then Bell’s salary can definitely work in a lineup on Saturday night. Here’s what you need to know about Christopher Bell this weekend: Joe Gibbs Racing is really good at Richmond Raceway, and Christopher Bell is really good at short, flat tracks. This year, CBell has finished 9th, 4th, and 2nd on this track type, and his average running position of 7.6 ranks 5th-best in the series. This #20 Toyota has legitimate top 5 finishing position on Saturday night.
FanDuel Driver Projections for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | FanDuel Salary | Avg Proj Pts | Starting Position | Ceiling Proj Pts | Dollar Per Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | $13,500 | 89.67 | 2 | 104.00 | $151 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $14,000 | 89.32 | 3 | 97.70 | $157 |
| Joey Logano | $12,500 | 87.07 | 6 | 94.60 | $144 |
| Brad Keselowski | $11,500 | 80.20 | 7 | 91.40 | $143 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,500 | 78.00 | 13 | 82.50 | $135 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 77.65 | 5 | 83.60 | $142 |
| Kyle Busch | $13,000 | 75.75 | 15 | 94.30 | $172 |
| William Byron | $9,800 | 72.50 | 14 | 81.60 | $135 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,800 | 72.40 | 28 | 80.00 | $108 |
| Kyle Larson | $12,000 | 71.47 | 1 | 91.50 | $168 |
| Aric Almirola | $9,200 | 71.05 | 9 | 79.50 | $129 |
| Christopher Bell | $10,000 | 71.00 | 10 | 83.50 | $141 |
| Alex Bowman | $9,700 | 69.75 | 12 | 77.50 | $139 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,500 | 69.40 | 19 | 78.50 | $122 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,500 | 69.37 | 8 | 84.10 | $137 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 66.80 | 4 | 75.50 | $135 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,000 | 66.40 | 23 | 70.00 | $105 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,300 | 66.15 | 17 | 76.00 | $125 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,000 | 66.00 | 11 | 73.50 | $121 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,000 | 61.05 | 27 | 64.50 | $98 |
| Erik Jones | $5,000 | 60.95 | 31 | 65.00 | $82 |
| Cole Custer | $7,500 | 60.05 | 21 | 69.00 | $125 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,500 | 59.80 | 24 | 70.50 | $92 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,300 | 59.30 | 22 | 66.50 | $106 |
| Chase Briscoe | $5,800 | 58.20 | 26 | 61.00 | $100 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,500 | 55.45 | 18 | 60.00 | $117 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,000 | 53.50 | 25 | 63.50 | $75 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,500 | 51.35 | 20 | 62.50 | $88 |
| J.J. Yeley | $2,000 | 50.90 | 37 | 54.50 | $39 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,500 | 50.75 | 30 | 58.50 | $69 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 50.25 | 29 | 55.00 | $70 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,000 | 49.60 | 16 | 62.00 | $101 |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,500 | 48.40 | 32 | 50.50 | $52 |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 46.80 | 36 | 51.00 | $53 |
| Quin Houff | $3,000 | 46.55 | 35 | 49.00 | $64 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 44.20 | 33 | 48.00 | $68 |
| Joey Gase | $2,000 | 42.75 | 34 | 47.00 | $47 |
