The final race of the season is always an interesting one from the Fantasy NASCAR perspective. The four remaining championship drivers typically all finish up front here at Homestead, so most teams will play it safe and just load up on those guys. It’s no different in FOX Fantasy Auto this week. As of this post, over all four championship drivers (Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards) had ownership percentages of at least 50%, with Johnson leading the way at 72%. This gives you an opportunity to just go with the flow (if you’re a leader) or try a “Hail Mary” and avoid those higher-owned guys. We’re employing a mixed strategy here on Sunday, but if you’d like additional lineups, feel free to send us an email.
Phoenix 2 was one of our worst races of the season, as we scored just 124 points in FOX Fantasy Auto. We didn’t fall too far in the overall standings, though as our official Fantasy Racing Online team is now in 363rd. We hope to close out the season on a high note and end up inside the top 300 for the year.
FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400
Jimmie Johnson ($10,300) – On Sunday, Jimmie Johnson has the opportunity to do something that most NASCAR drivers only dream of: clinch his seventh Sprint Cup Series championship. Johnson is already one of the best drivers of all time, but accomplishing this will have to eliminate any doubt that is left out there. As far as performing well under pressure, there’s probably no team-driver combination better in the Sprint Cup garage than this #48 crew, and that should show once again on Sunday. Johnson is going to start from back in 14th when the Ford EcoBoost 400 goes green, but that’s due to a little bad luck he had during qualifying. That #48 Chevrolet is fast enough to easily get to the top 5, if not the lead, in the early laps, though. Johnson is currently on a three-race streak of top 10 finishes here at Homestead and during Happy Hour this weekend he was 10th-fastest overall and 9th in terms of ten-lap average. We’re pretty happy with where we’re at in the standings, so we’re just going to join the masses here at put Jimmie Johnson in our lineup this weekend.
Kyle Larson ($11,500) – Due to his pretty high price this weekend, and the fact that so many of those playing FOX Fantasy Auto are focusing on the four championship drivers, Kyle Larson is relatively low in terms of ownership this weekend (11.3% at the time of this article). However, he has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring drivers this weekend. For whatever reason, Larson ended up qualifying 24th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400, but he should be able to make his way through the field as the race goes on on Sunday evening. Homestead is an old, worn-out race track, and the high line is going to be the fastest way around the track. And in case you didn’t know, that’s Larson’s preferred line. He’s never finished worse than 15th in three career starts here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and we don’t anticipate that changing this weekend. Larson should be able to put up a healthy 40+ fantasy points in FOX Fantasy Auto on Sunday.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,200) – Martin Truex, Jr. doesn’t have much room for place differential points this weekend (he qualified 6th), but the #78 Toyota has enough speed to win this race, and if that happens, he’s going to be well worth the $10,200 investment. Plus, this gives you an opportunity to grab a top-tier driver that’s not one of the “Championship Four.” Homestead has long been known as one of Truex’s best tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, if not his best. No, he’s never won here, but seven top 10s in eleven career starts is pretty impressive, especially when you think about the junk equipment that Truex used to race in. This weekend, he had one of the fastest cars in both practice sessions, but we weren’t too thrilled with his long run speed. With that being said, the #78 Toyota has been a “sure bet” on the 1.5-mile tracks this season, and that’s not suddenly going to change this weekend. Truex is a legitimate top 5 contender on Sunday.
Austin Dillon ($8,200) -Here’s a little outside-of-the-box pick, but why not? It’s the final race of the season, might as well have some fun and root for some drivers that you usually don’t pick. Austin Dillon qualified 17th for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, so if he’s able to pull off a top 10 finish, owners in the FOX Fantasy Auto game are looking at 38+ fantasy points out of him. And it wouldn’t be all that surprising if he was able to finish that high. The Richard Childress Racing teams have really improved on the intermediate race tracks as of late, and Austin posted a career-best finish of 14th in this race one year ago. This weekend, the #3 Chevrolet has shown flashes of speed, ranking 9th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 and then 4th on that chart in Happy Hour. Dillon didn’t rank very high on the overall speed charts, but we’re more concerned with long run speed than short run speed anyway.
Carl Edwards ($9,100) – We’re probably going to have two of the championship contenders on our roster this weekend simply because Carl Edwards is so under-priced. At $9,100, he’s almost a must-own driver this weekend. Over 64% of teams have Cousin Carl in their lineup for Homestead (as of this post) and we expect that number to increase before lockdown on Sunday. Edwards is a two-time winner here at Homestead-Miami Speedway and has averaged a finish of 9.3 over twelve career starts here. In practice this weekend, the #19 Toyota was one of the fastest cars on the track, posting the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 before winding up 5th on that chart during Happy Hour. As far as “one fast lap,” Edwards was inside the top 5 on both practice session overall speed charts. He probably has the best car heading into Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and is definitely one of the favorites to win.
