This week, Fantasy NASCAR players get a bit of a more predictable race with the Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. This track is a 1.5-mile “intermediate” venue, which means there are a lot of similar venues to consider when it comes to similarity. Other tracks of this length include: Atlanta, Charlotte Las Vegas, Kansas, Kentucky, and Texas. And then you have the fact that Homestead is a “high-wear” track, which means the surface is super abrasive and tires are going to be eaten up in a few laps. Other “high-wear” tracks on the schedule are: Atlanta, Darlington, and Auto Club. We visit Homestead-Miami Speedway once per year, and up until last season, Homestead was always the final race of the year.

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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at the Daytona Road course specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.

Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers

Tyler Reddick, Matt DiBenedetto, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch racing at Phoenix
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Kyle Larson – The algorithm doesn’t love Kyle Larson as much as you (and myself) would probably expect. Part of this is is because of the limited data we have with Larson recently, as he only ran a couple of races on the intermediate tracks last year before being suspended (and only one on a “high-wear” track). Yes, we have more historical data from him, and that’s included, but what’s also included for each driver is how their particular car ran in similar races last year. And, well, let’s just say that Matt Kenseth in the #42 Chevrolet is not Kyle Larson in the #42 Chevrolet. This time around, Larson is in the best equipment he’s ever had in the Cup Series, and Homestead-Miami has been one of his best tracks. He could easily challenge for a top 5 finish on Sunday, if not the win.

Tyler Reddick – Unlike Kyle Larson, we have a good amount of data with Tyler Reddick to analyze, and he had one real standout race: right here at Homestead. In last year’s race at this track, Reddick started back in 24th but made his way through the field with ease, ending the race in 4th place with an average running position 3.9, which was also 4th-best in the event. Unfortunately, though, we’re not just focusing on one race when look at data this weekend. Still, it should definitely be considered how strong Reddick was here at Reddick, and his 14th-place prediction by the algorithm for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 will likely turn out to be too low.

Homestead-Miami Dixie Vodka 400 Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

RankDriverPower
Index
1.Harvick, Kevin39.43
2.Elliott, Chase37.95
3.Logano, Joey37.75
4.Truex, Jr., Martin37.22
5.Hamlin, Denny37.20
6.Keselowski, Brad37.02
7.Busch, Kyle35.68
8.Busch, Kurt33.56
9.Blaney, Ryan33.41
10.Bell, Christopher32.07
11.Bowman, Alex29.75
12.Larson, Kyle28.69
13.Dillon, Austin28.36
14.Reddick, Tyler26.60
15.Almirola, Aric20.11
16.DiBenedetto, Matt18.76
17.Byron, William15.55
18.Custer, Cole11.47
19.Wallace, Bubba09.32
20.Briscoe, Chase03.19
21.Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky-05.19
22.Newman, Ryan-08.34
23.Jones, Erik-12.48
24.McDowell, Michael-12.31
25.Chastain, Ross-13.63
26.Preece, Ryan-18.22
27.Buescher, Chris-18.90
28.Suarez, Daniel-24.07
29.Alfredo, Anthony-24.40
30.Haley, Justin-27.93
31.LaJoie, Corey-28.02
32.Ware, Cody-35.66
33.Davison, James-37.71
34.Bilicki, Josh-38.50
35.Smithley, Garrett-39.94
36.McLeod, BJ-40.42
37.Houff, Quin-42.04
38.Hill, Timmy-42.69
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Jordan, Excellent site. I and many others appreciate all the information and the contests/setup.

    One request, Chris Buescher’s name is misspelled on the Algorithm list. It’s been listed as “Buscher” (missing the “e”) since week 1. Minor issue but when downloading/utilizing the Algo information in spreadsheets, it always comes up as an error.

    Thanks,

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