We continue the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season into May this weekend as the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway is set for Sunday afternoon. This will be our second stop at a “low-wear” 1.5-mile track this year, with the first one being the Las Vegas race two months ago. The other 1.5-mile track that the Cup Series has raced at in 2021 so far is Homestead, but that doesn’t really compare well to Kansas because it’s “high-wear.” Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano were the two winners here at Kansas last season.

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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.

Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers

Bubba Wallace with Victory Junction Gang Paint Scheme at Auto Club Speedway 2020
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Erik Jones – If you’re looking for a sleeper pick for a top 10 finish on Sunday, Erik Jones may be your guy. In his six career Kansas starts with Joe Gibbs Racing in the #20 Toyota, he was able to put up five finishes of 7th or better at this track with three of those five finishes also being top 5s. Now, obviously Erik Jones doesn’t have that top level equipment anymore, but if you look back to the Las Vegas race this season, he had the 14th-best Green Flag Speed and ended up finishing 10th when the checkered flag waved. Here at Kansas, Bubba Wallace finished 18th here last fall in this #43 Chevrolet.

Christopher Bell – Speaking of that #20 Toyota… Christopher Bell is starting to gain his footing on these low-wear 1.5-mile tracks, and with his 7th-place finish at Las Vegas earlier this year, he now has three straight top 10 finishes on the low-wear 1.5-mile ovals. That includes a 10th-place finish here at Kansas last fall (in that Leavine Family Racing car) and his rookie-season-best 3rd-place finish at Texas the next week. If Erik Jones can wheel this car to top 7 finishes year after year at Kansas, CBell can do the same thing. The algorithm has him predicted to finish 12th this weekend but with an 8th-place starting spot, there’s more potential there for sure.

Kansas Buschy McBusch Race 400 Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

RankDriverPower
Index
1.Keselowski, Brad37.20
2.Hamlin, Denny36.60
3.Truex, Jr., Martin35.94
4.Blaney, Ryan35.91
5.Busch, Kyle34.81
6.Elliott, Chase33.42
7.Harvick, Kevin32.05
8.Logano, Joey31.52
9.Byron, William31.40
10.Larson, Kyle31.36
11.Bowman, Alex31.31
12.Bell, Christopher27.40
13.Dillon, Austin24.66
14.Busch, Kurt22.71
15.DiBenedetto, Matt21.29
16.Reddick, Tyler20.60
17.Almirola, Aric18.46
18.Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky15.27
19.Custer, Cole10.93
20.Jones, Erik02.79
21.Buescher, Chris-01.01
22.Newman, Ryan-02.55
23.Chastain, Ross-06.64
24.Wallace, Bubba-07.77
25.McDowell, Michael-08.72
26.Suarez, Daniel-09.13
27.Cindric, Austin-10.64
28.Briscoe, Chase-14.71
29.Preece, Ryan-15.73
30.Alfredo, Anthony-20.04
31.LaJoie, Corey-28.64
32.Haley, Justin-30.74
33.McLeod, BJ-38.18
34.Smithley, Garrett-42.11
35.Bilicki, Josh-43.37
36.Ware, Cody-43.48
37.Gase, Joey-44.75
38.Mills, Matt-45.24
39.Houff, Quin-45.28
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.