We’re on to Dover International Speedway this weekend and the Drydene 400 at “The Monster Mile.” Dover is a 1-mile concrete track that, similar to Darlington last weekend, is quite unique. NASCAR is running the 750 hp package again this weekend, but the other tracks where it has been used this season don’t compare super well to Dover. This is a shorter yet high-banked race track that kind of races like an intermediate track. It’s interesting to say the least, and we have the two best 750 hp cars on the front row for Sunday: Martin Truex, Jr. and Denny Hamlin.
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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.
Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers
Chase Elliott – The algorithm has Chase Elliott predicted to finish 7th, but there’s a good chance that the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion ends up better than that. Hell, he might even finally challenge for a win this year. Dover has been a great track for Chase, and in addition to his win here in 2018, he’s finished inside the top 5 in seven of his ten starts at “The Monster Mile.” A wreck and an engine issue has two recent blemishes on Chase’s Dover record–39th- and 38th-place finishes–but even with those, Elliott has the 3rd-best average finish of all current Cup drivers here at 11.3.
Ryan Blaney – Between Richmond, Darlington, and now Dover, the last month and a half (or so) of schedule hasn’t been incredibly kind to Ryan Blaney in terms of his “best tracks,” yet he’s still rattling off good finish after good finish, and has now ended up 11th or better in eight of this last nine starts this season. Here at Dover, Blaney’s record is okay; in ten total starts, he’s grabbed two top 10s (both 8th-place finishes) but has an average result of 19.6 thanks to four really bad races. Blaney hasn’t finished better than 11th at Dover since the 2018 season, but with how he is running right now, that could change this weekend, and the algorithm agrees.
Dover Drydene 400 Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order
| Rank | Driver | Power Index |
| 1. | Truex, Jr., Martin | 40.61 |
| 2. | Hamlin, Denny | 40.14 |
| 3. | Harvick, Kevin | 37.47 |
| 4. | Larson, Kyle | 37.34 |
| 5. | Logano, Joey | 36.67 |
| 6. | Busch, Kyle | 35.71 |
| 7. | Elliott, Chase | 34.74 |
| 8. | Byron, William | 31.73 |
| 9. | Keselowski, Brad | 30.29 |
| 10. | Blaney, Ryan | 28.45 |
| 11. | Bell, Christopher | 26.86 |
| 12. | Dillon, Austin | 25.22 |
| 13. | Reddick, Tyler | 23.38 |
| 14. | Bowman, Alex | 15.15 |
| 15. | DiBenedetto, Matt | 14.83 |
| 16. | Almirola, Aric | 14.75 |
| 17. | Busch, Kurt | 13.96 |
| 18. | Buescher, Chris | 12.48 |
| 19. | Custer, Cole | 10.46 |
| 20. | Newman, Ryan | 07.20 |
| 21. | Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky | -13.72 |
| 22. | Suarez, Daniel | -19.04 |
| 23. | Chastain, Ross | -19.37 |
| 24. | Jones, Erik | -20.69 |
| 25. | Wallace, Bubba | -25.43 |
| 26. | McDowell, Michael | -25.91 |
| 27. | Preece, Ryan | -28.34 |
| 28. | Briscoe, Chase | -30.18 |
| 29. | Alfredo, Anthony | -35.71 |
| 30. | LaJoie, Corey | -36.17 |
| 31. | Berry, Josh | -41.49 |
| 32. | McLeod, BJ | -42.74 |
| 33. | Smithley, Garrett | -45.00 |
| 34. | Bilicki, Josh | -45.97 |
| 35. | Davison, James | -46.06 |
| 36. | Houff, Quin | -46.66 |
| 37. | Ware, Cody | -46.72 |
