The NASCAR Cup Series is back with another road course race this weekend, making it two weeks in a row at these left-AND-right-turn venues. With that in mind, we really didn’t learn a whole lot of surprising stuff at Watkins Glen, so don’t be surprised if the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order below for the Brickyard Road Course race on Sunday is very similar to the order from last weekend’s race; we don’t have any Indianapolis-specific Cup Series data to use this weekend, and we know who is good at this track type.

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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.

Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers

Austin Cindric burnout after winning Brickyard Road Course 2021
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Ross Chastain – The algorithm is learning to like Ross Chastain more and more with each road course, but because his Cup Series history on this track type is so awful, it’s going to take a while until the algorithm is super accurate here. Anyway, after his 12th-place finish at Watkins Glen last weekend, Chastain has now finished between 4th and 12th in the last four road course races this year, and all four would’ve been top 10s if he didn’t run out of gas on the final lap at The Glen. He has much higher potential than the algorithm is giving him credit for today.

Austin Cindric – The algorithm is obviously under-valuing Austin Cindric this weekend, but it’s easy to understand why. Simply put, Austin Cindric doesn’t have very good NASCAR Cup Series stats: he’s made six starts in the #33 Ford this season and has an average finish of 25th. In the two road course races (COTA and Road America), he showed potential but had issues and finished 25th and 38th. However, if this race on Sunday doesn’t have anything crazy happen, and Austin Cindric’s car can stay in one piece, he should finish much better than the 19th-place predicted finish. He could actually challenge for the win, to be honest.

Verizon 200 at The Brickyard Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

RankDriverPower
Index
1.Elliott, Chase39.03
2.Larson, Kyle38.29
3.Truex, Jr., Martin33.76
4.Hamlin, Denny33.58
5.Busch, Kyle30.98
6.Bell, Christopher27.73
7.Logano, Joey27.17
8.Byron, William26.15
9.Busch, Kurt25.51
10.Harvick, Kevin24.63
11.Bowman, Alex23.36
12.Blaney, Ryan20.45
13.Reddick, Tyler18.36
14.Briscoe, Chase17.31
15.Chastain, Ross16.74
16.Allmendinger, AJ16.02
17.Keselowski, Brad15.69
18.Dillon, Austin15.07
19.Cindric, Austin12.74
20.DiBenedetto, Matt09.73
21.Buescher, Chris02.04
22.Almirola, Aric-01.77
23.Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky-03.81
24.Jones, Erik-05.51
25.McDowell, Michael-10.69
26.Custer, Cole-12.39
27.Suarez, Daniel-19.57
28.Wallace, Bubba-21.94
29.Preece, Ryan-24.75
30.LaJoie, Corey-25.65
31.Newman, Ryan-25.98
32.Alfredo, Anthony-30.66
33.Davison, James-31.00
34.Haley, Justin-33.87
35.Lally, Andy-34.88
36.Smithley, Garrett-36.50
37.Ware, Cody-36.93
38.Bilicki, Josh-38.96
39.Houff, Quin-40.37
40.Hill, Timmy-42.15

As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.