Sunday afternoon’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 will be the first time we see how the Stages affect an intermediate track race, and we couldn’t ask for a better one to get a sample. Atlanta Motor Speedway is a old, rough racetrack that eats rubber like it hasn’t had a meal in years. The fastest line is going to be around the bottom of the track but that top line will come into play too, especially late in a run. Typically the most talented drivers are the ones that finish up front here at Atlanta, and starting position really doesn’t mean a whole lot here. There’s so much falloff at Atlanta that being fast late in a run is more important than most other tracks we go to.
Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Atlanta
Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are the two A Group drivers I have this weekend and are also the two highest-rostered guys in the top group for Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing–and that shouldn’t be too surprising: Harvick has had the best car here at Atlanta for the last few years while Johnson has gone to victory lane in the last two races here. As far as this weekend goes, Harvick is on the pole and looks to have a dominant race car ready to go on Sunday. The #4 team was working on comfort during Happy Hour on Saturday, and whenever that happens, you know Harvick has a damn good car. Johnson, on the other hand, didn’t look great on Saturday, but he rarely does. This is a 500-mile race, though, and he will be there at the end.
One driver that could potentially take the spotlight away from Kevin Harvick on Sunday is Brad Keselowski. He mentioned during an interview that he probably has the best car he’s ever had here at Atlanta, and the speed he showed on Saturday backs that statement up: Keselowski was 2nd-fastest in Happy Hour and also had the 7th-best ten-lap average, which is impressive considering he made that long run later in the session. Kyle Busch can be considered as a potential starter this weekend, as he has ended up 6th or better in four of his last six starts here at Atlanta. Rowdy wasn’t super fast during practice on Saturday but he won the Xfinity race and he has a solid starting spot on Sunday (3rd). Joey Logano is another A Group driver that should be strong on Sunday. He was 3rd in 20-lap average during Happy Hour and has two top 5s in his last four starts here at Atlanta. The only possible issue that I see with Logano is that his splitter was hitting the track a lot during practice on Saturday, and if the #22 team isn’t able to fix that it could become a big issue during the race.
My Starter: Kevin Harvick
Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Brad Keselowski, (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Jimmie Johnson, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Martin Truex, Jr., (7) Matt Kenseth, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (9) Denny Hamlin
Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Atlanta
There’s quite a few good options in the B Group this weekend, and if you have someone like Ryan Newman or Jamie McMurray on your roster, it might be worth a shot starting them on Sunday to avoid using a Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, or Kyle Larson start. Newman qualified 2nd for Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500, and while he probably isn’t going to finish that high, the #31 Chevrolet is fast enough to grab a top 12 finish this weekend. Don’t forget that this #31 team really came on late in the season last year on the intermediate tracks, and it looks like they may have carried that on through into 2017. Also, Newman has three top 10s in his last four Atlanta starts. McMurray, on the other hand, has another fast care this weekend and qualified 7th on Friday before posting the 3rd-best ten-lap average and best 20-lap average during practice on Saturday. He might be able to pull off a top 15 on Sunday but that’s a very risky start.
As far as my B Group drivers this weekend, went with the ‘big guns’ in Chase Elliott, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Larson, along with the sleeper pick of A.J. Allmendinger–who, if he would have qualified better, might have been a real option this weekend. Of the top drivers in the B Group, Chase Elliott has the best car heading into Sunday, followed closely by Kurt Busch. Chase was 2nd in terms of 20-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday afternoon while Kurt ended up 6th on that chart. Both of them should be able to contend for a top 5 finish on Sunday depending on how the race plays out.
Kyle Larson should have a fast race car as well, but he’s been quite hit or miss here at Atlanta over the years. Still, if this race goes through a lot of long, green flag runs, that high line is going to be pretty fast, and that’s where Larson excels. Let’s just hope he keeps that #42 Chevrolet off the wall. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is the only other B Group option that I would consider potentially viable this weekend. He qualified 4th for this Sunday’s race and ended up 10th in this event one year ago.
My Starters: Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch
Final B Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Kurt Busch, (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) A.J. Allmendinger, (7) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (8) Ryan Blaney, (9) Trevor Bayne, (10) Kasey Kahne, (11) Austin Dillon, (12) Clint Bowyer, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Chris Buescher
Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Atlanta
The three C Group rookies are going to have one goal and one goal only on Sunday: finish the race. All three of them have top 20 finish potential, and all three of them were right next to each other in terms of speed during Happy Hour on Saturday (Suarez-19th, Dillon-20th, Jones-22nd). Just like last week, though, I’m going to go with experience here, and Ty Dillon is the only one of these three that has ever started a Monster Energy NASCAR Cup race here at Atlanta. In fact, he’s started two: last season, Ty wound up 17th while subbing in for Tony Stewart, and in 2014 he finished 25th while driving the #33 Chevrolet for Circle Sport. As long as Dillon, Suarez, and Jones all don’t hit the wall on Sunday, they should all finish relatively close to each other, and from a strategy perspective I’d rather have Suarez and Jones later in the year rather than Ty Dillon.
My Starter: Ty Dillon
Final C Group Rankings: (1) Ty Dillon, (2) Daniel Suarez, (3) Erik Jones, (4) Landon Cassill, (5) Michael McDowell, (6) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest
