Practice and qualifying for this year’s Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast isn’t looking favorable. If qualifying is rained out, the starting lineup for this year’s Crown Jewel race will be set by NASCAR’s metrics. Here’s how they will line up:
Sharp NASCAR bettors are at it again, and it appears like sportsbooks didn’t learn their lesson from the 2022 season.
Last year, NASCAR bettors had a big year against the sportsbooks of the world, as we saw some serious evening of the playing field with the introduction of the NextGen Car in NASCAR. In total, there were 19 different winners over the 36-race season, with nine drivers grabbing two or more victories.
Even without the million-dollar parlay hit by a Stacking Dennys listener, sportsbooks had to pay out some long odds over the course of the 2022 season, as there were several longshot winners, including Erik Jones at 60/1 odds at Darlington last September.
NASCAR is now on to the second race of the 2023 season, the Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway, and it definitely seems like sportsbooks didn’t learn their lesson from last year, because we saw some huge odds shifts from the books once the initial odds for the race came out.
Let’s take a look a few of those movers.
Erik Jones Opened at +20000
Bovada posted initial odds for Sunday’s race at Auto Club Speedway and laid an absolutely absurd line for Erik Jones at 200-to-1 to win Sunday’s race. While he has never won a Cup Series race at this track, Jones has the 2nd-best average finish among all active drivers here (10.2) and in this race last season, he finished 2nd in both Stages before ending up 3rd in the race. Jones also had the best Green Flag Speed in that race and the best Average Running position as well.
Onshore books didn’t open up Jones quite as long, but you could’ve still grabbed him at 40-to-1 when DraftKings opened. He has since been bet down to 30-to-1 or shorter at most books.
William Byron Opened at +2000
Photo Credit: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images
William Byron is a driver that has a ton of potential, but he also has trouble putting together complete races–as evidenced by only having four career wins in the Cup Series despite being in top tier equipment since he made the jump up to NASCAR’s top tier. Additionally, two of those four wins have came in superspeedway or superspeedway-like races (Daytona and Atlanta), which often come down to luck more than anything.
With that being said, one of Byron’s Cup Series wins came at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2021, which is a highly abrasive, rough track–very similar to Auto Club Speedway. Last year in this race, Byron was a legitimate contender for the wind but ended up getting caught up in a wreck.
Bet365 opened Byron at 20-to-1 odds on Tuesday. He has since been bet down to 15-to-1 or shorter at most books, although DraftKings still has Willy B at 18-to-1 as of this posting.
Tyler Reddick Opened at +1500
Tyler Reddick’s odds were at the top of the list of things to see for most sharp bettors this weekend, as he had the best car at this track last season and led 90 laps in addition to winning Stage 1 and Stage 2. However, he cut a tire in that race and ended up finishing 24th.
Reddick is another driver that excels at tracks with major tire falloff, as Auto Club Speedway causes. Also, he’s got a bit of an upgrade in equipment this year, as he moved from Richard Childress Racing to 23XI Racing during the offseason.
DraftKings was one of the sportsbooks that generously opened up Reddick at 15-to-1 for Auto Club. Books have since moved Reddick to 12-to-1 or shorter for Sunday’s race.
Why Paying Attention To Opening Odds Is So Important
There is a reason why the odds on these drivers moved so much (and so quickly) soon after being posted by sportsbooks: because there was plenty of money rolling in on them.
There’s already been some great betting value out there to start out the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season, and from the looks of things, that isn’t going to change anytime soon.
The Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway is this weekend, and the second race of the Round of 8 for this year’s Playoffs. The NASCAR Cup Series hasn’t raced at Homestead yet this season, so from that perspective we’re going in blind, but it’s a high-wear 1.5-mile track, which means you can analyze statistics from similar tracks–Darlington, Dover, Bristol, Las Vegas, Auto Club–to get a good idea of who should be fast. And let’s not forget that some drivers are just really good at Homestead.
Private DraftKings contest for Homestead, limited 50 spots.
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Homestead on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Tyler Reddick
Joey Logano
Ross Chastain
William Byron
Cole Custer
Corey LaJoie
DraftKings NASCAR Cash Core Picks for the Homestead Dixie Vodka 400
Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Tyler Reddick ($10,900) – This slate works out well to roll with the highest-priced driver as well as a couple of others, so I’m rolling with it. If you put my projections into an optimizer and have it spit out 150 lineups, these three “cash core” drivers are the top 3 it puts out, with Reddick at 62%, Byron at 98.7%, and Chastain at 95.3%. As far as Homestead-Miami Speedway and Tyler Reddick go, he’s made two Cup Series starts and has wound up 4th and 2nd in those events. He also started 24th and 35th in those two races. This time around, he starts 7th, so he has a lot less work to do. Reddick was the fastest car in practice when it came to 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap average, and while I think you could go a little underweight on him in tournaments, he’s a definite cash play this weekend.
Ross Chastain ($9,600) – In three career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ross Chastain has posted finishes of 33rd, 35th, and 17th, but don’t let that scare you away because only one of those starts was in halfway decent equipment (his 17th with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021). Instead, I’m more focused on how Chastain has done on high-wear and similar tracks this season, and he ranked in the top 3 in fastest laps in both Darlington races as well as the Las Vegas race last weekend. In practice here at Homestead on Saturday, Chastain was 3rd-fastest in 25-lap average and he qualified back in 20th, which makes him a must-play in cash games this weekend.
William Byron ($9,200) – The defending winner of this race went out and won the pole for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400, and while it’s always a bit risky to take the pole sitter at these 1.5-mile tracks in 2022, the cheap-ish price tag of $9,200 for Willy B makes it easier to swallow. Homestead is honestly one of Byron’s better tracks, and considering he won here last season and led 102 laps despite starting 31st, it’s going to be fun to see how much he can dominate here on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Byron ranked 6th-fastest in 25-lap average and 4th-fastest in 30-lap average. Don’t forget that that first pit stall is going to be a big advantage on race day as well.
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs continue this afternoon with the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. This track is your standard “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile venue, and we already have one 2022 race completed here (back in May), where Kurt Busch led 116 of the 267 laps en route to the win, and with Toyota taking 5 of the top 6 finishing spots. If you’re looking for comparable tracks to consider this weekend, Las Vegas is your best option, and I think you can also throw in Michigan, Dover, and Charlotte data from this year.
Play in my private DraftKings contest for today's race at Kansas.
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Kansas on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Denny Hamlin
Tyler Reddick
William Byron
Erik Jones
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
Justin Haley
I will note that the 2nd-highest projected lineup is: Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Erik Jones, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Justin Haley.
The 3rd-highest projected lineup is the chalky one: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Todd Gilliland.
DraftKings NASCAR Cash Core Picks for the Kansas Hollywood Casino 400
Photo Credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images
Tyler Reddick ($9,800) – It’s hard not to play Tyler Reddick with your cash lineups today. He’s on the pole and had a blazing fast car in practice, ranking 1st in 5-, 10-, 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. At Kansas, the high racing groove comes into play during the race, and that’s where Reddick thrives. He’s shown promise at this track in the past–including the first race here this season, where he led 24 laps and had 17 fastest laps before finishing 30th after hitting the wall. In tournaments, I think there’s definitely a strategy play in being underweight on Reddick simply because there are so many people in the industry talking about him for this race, but for cash lines, I think you need to play him.
Aric Almirola ($6,500) – No need to go into too much detail here. Almirola starts dead last in 36th on Sunday and has nowhere to go but up. This team had some sort of mystery issue in practice on Saturday, but you have to think they’ll get it figured out. At his low salary of just $6,500, Almirola really only needs to finish in the high teens to hit value here. Earlier this year at Kansas, this #10 Ford looked to have top 10 speed but lost a cylinder and ended up finishing 26th.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,300) – Same story here with Stenhouse. He got into the wall during practice this weekend and will start from 35th, one spot ahead of dead last. Don’t let that worry you, though: Ricky did that same thing here at Kansas in the first race this year and still finished 8th after starting 36th. At similar tracks this year, Stenhouse ended up 21st at Las Vegas (but was running 8th with nine laps to go and was then hit with a pit penalty), finished 2nd at Dover, and also came home 7th at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600. For what it’s worth, if you take my projections and run an optimizer for 150 lineups this weekend, Stenhouse shows up in 100% of them, while Almirola only comes up 43.3% of the time (we’ll get to a pivot here soon).
DraftKings NASCAR Tournament Picks for the Kansas Hollywood Casino 400
Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
William Byron ($9,100) and Alex Bowman ($8,200) – I’ve been on these two guys since very early on in the week, and what’d they go out and do on Saturday? Bowman qualified 3rd while Byron qualified 9th. That second row starting spot for Bowman the Showman is definitely going to keep his DraftKings ownership low on Sunday, and there’s a good chance Byron could go under-owned as well because of the place differential plays of Ryan Blaney ($8,900) and Kevin Harvick ($8,700) priced right beneath him. The Hendrick Chevrolets had speed in practice on Saturday, though, particularly Kyle Larson ($10,700) and Bowman, who were both inside the top 4 when it came to both 10-lap and 20-lap average. The other Hendrick cars of Byron and Chase Elliott ($10,500) didn’t look as fast, but that doesn’t worry me. Remember the Las Vegas race earlier this year when I hit Bowman at 22-to-1 odds to win? The same thing I said that week is relevant here: when half of the Hendrick fleet is fast in practice, all four will be good in the race.
Erik Jones ($7,800) – One driver that is absolutely popping in my projections this weekend is last weekend’s winner at Darlington, Erik Jones. He’s priced at that uncomfortable $7,800 in DraftKings and didn’t really stand out in practice, which is going to keep DFS players off of him. With that being said, at comparable tracks this year, Jones has been solid; at Michigan, Jones ranked 8th in Green Flag Speed and finished 8th as well, and at Las Vegas earlier this season he ranked 12th in Green Flag Speed despite crashing late. For what it’s worth, Jones was running 7th at Las Vegas before he wrecked with 9 laps to go. This spring at Kansas, he had wheel problems after finishing 8th in Stage #1 and ended up 32nd.
Justin Haley ($5,500) – The chalk is going to be Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and if you know me I absolutely love pivoting off of major chalk plays in DFS. Personally, I prefer getting off of Almirola this week as opposed to Stenhouse, but you could pivot off of either of them down to Justin Haley here at a major discount. Haley and this #31 team are just consistent at finishing, typically ending up in the 17th to 23rd-place finishing range. At similar tracks this year, Haley came home 17th at Michigan, was 21st-fastest in Green Flag Speed in the first Kansas race, finished 17th at Las Vegas, and ran 11th at Dover.
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Kansas NASCAR DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
We kick off the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs tonight with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. In my opinion, Darlington is one of the best stops on the circuit, as tire falloff is extremely high thanks to the abrasive surface of the track, and driver talent tends to come into play because of this. The Southern 500 is scheduled to start around 6pm ET tonight, which means the teams will be dealing with early evening conditions transitioning into night–which will require crew chiefs to make the right adjustments on the car and keep up with the track. And with the added drama of this being the first Playoff race of the season, this is bound to be a great race on Sunday night!
DraftKings contest for tonight's race at Darlington. Limited to 50 spots so fill 'er up.
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Darlington on Sunday according to my Projections is:
Kyle Busch
Joey Logano
Martin Truex, Jr.
Daniel Suarez
Chris Buescher
Cole Custer
I will note that the 2nd-highest projected lineup is: Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr., Daniel Suarez, Ty Dillon, Cole Custer.
DraftKings NASCAR Cash Core Picks for the Darlington Cook Out Southern 500
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – Martin Truex, Jr. is a two-time Darlington winner and was actually a contender here at Darlington back in May but caught up in the big wreck near the end of the race and ended up finishing 24th. This time around, Truex will have some work to do when the green flag drops since he qualified back in 17th, but all that does is make him a great cash game play in DraftKings this weekend, especially with his lower-than-expected price tag. In practice on Saturday, Truex had the best 10- and 15-lap averages, and when it came to 20-lap average he was 2nd-fastest. There’s definitely a strategy play in being somewhat underweight on Truex in big tournaments, but for cash lineups, he’s a great core driver to start building with.
Daniel Suarez ($8,000) – I hate ultra-chalk weeks, but we have to make do with what we have. The #99 Chevrolet driven by Daniel Suarez failed inspection three times on Saturday, which means Suarez wasn’t able to complete a qualifying lap, and he’ll also have to serve a pass-through penalty down pit road once the race goes green. We haven’t really seen the pass-through penalties be a dagger to the heart at any track, though, so that’s not overly concerning. An early caution will get Suarez back on the lead lap, and if that doesn’t happen, this Southern 500 is a pretty long race, so I have no doubts that he will get back on the lead lap at some point on Sunday night. After that, you really don’t need much from Suarez for him to be in the optimal lineup tonight. Even a mid-teens finish, which he should be more than capable of getting, will get him there. Like Truex, though, there’s definitely a strategy play in going underweight on Suarez in tournaments. For what it’s worth, if you run an optimizer with my projections for 150 lineups, Suarez only shows up about 69% of the time (nice). While this is still a very high percentage, it’s worth noting that most drivers who start dead last like that show up in nearly 100% of lineups.
Cole Custer ($5,500) – As soon as DraftKings released the driver prices for this race, the first question that popped in my head was, why do they hate Cole Custer so much? A salary of $5,500 is simply too low for a guy like Custer this weekend, and since he qualified back in 30th, he should be really chalky on Sunday night. There’s obviously strategy plays and pivots to talk about with Custer here on Sunday–he wasn’t stellar here in May by any means–but as far as cash lineups go, I think Custer is the best option in this price range simply because he has significantly better equipment than every other driver down here, and with the same (or better) upside for DraftKings FPTS.
DraftKings NASCAR Tournament Picks for the Darlington Cook Out Southern 500
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Denny Hamlin ($11,100) – There is a very good chance that Denny Hamlin goes significantly under-owned on this DraftKings slate, and it’s all because of where he’s priced. Kyle Larson ($11,400) is the obvious high-dollar driver play tonight, as he is great at Darlington, has a bit of place differential potential starting 7th, and has a really fast race car. And then we have Chase Elliott ($10,700), who comes in at a $400 discount off of Hamlin, but starts 12 spots further back in the field (Elliott starts 23rd compared to Hamlin’s 11th). My projections have Hamlin coming in at just around 24% ownership tonight, but that might even be a little high. Here at Darlington, Denny is a four-time winner, has the best career average finish in the field (7.8), and is the defending winner of this race. Looking at the practice chart, his teammates all ranked higher than him in speed over the long run, but Hamlin was right there. He may not dominate this race early, but if this #11 Toyota gets to the front in the second half of the race, we could definitely see Hamlin in victory lane to kick off these Playoffs. I like pairing Denny with a high starter (such as pole sitter Joey Logano ($9,800)) to have the strategy of getting the early dominator points and then maybe the “surprise” dominator points later.
William Byron ($8,900) – Let’s not forget who Joey Logano punted out of the way to get the win here at Darlington back in May…William Byron. Yes, this #24 team has struggled mightily ever since their win at Martinsville back in April, but as my Stacking Dennys podcast co-host pointed out on Twitter a couple of days ago, there’s a good chance that this team has simply been experimenting during that time. So right now, we’re hitting a potential “sweet spot” (as I like to call it) for Byron when it comes to DraftKings: most DFS players don’t trust him, he starts really high (3rd), and his price isn’t extremely low, all of which will keep his ownership down. We’ve seen Willy B compete for the win here at Darlington before, though, and the #24 Chevrolet ranked 4th in ten-lap average during practice this weekend. I definitely can’t argue against being overweight on Byron for this slate.
Ty Dillon ($5,800) – Down in the lower driver price range for this slate, the chalk plays are going to be Cole Custer ($5,500) and Corey LaJoie ($5,400), so my contrarian brain immediately went to look for a different option. He’s priced a little bit higher, but I really like rounding out your lineup with Ty Dillon this weekend if you can fit in the price. Ty has always been a solid performer here at Darlington, with finishes of 21st or better in all but one of his seven career Cup Series starts here. This weekend, he starts back in 29th, so he essentially has the same upside as guys like Custer and LaJoie but is projected to come in about 10 percentage points lower in ownership than those two. It helps that Ty’s teammate, Erik Jones ($7,200), seems to have respectable speed this weekend as well.
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Darlington NASCAR DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...
