Facebook Instagram Twitter Youtube
Monday, June 9, 2025
Advertisement
Home Blog Page 19

Texas NASCAR Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order (Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch racing bumper to bumper during the 2021 Daytona 500
Photo Credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images

…well that happened. The cutoff race at the Charlotte ROVAL did not disappoint one bit, and we’re now down to just eight drivers left to compete for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The first stop in this third round of the Playoffs will be Texas Motor Speedway for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 on Sunday afternoon. Last year, this race was the one that was delayed by rain and fog for several days before Kyle Busch (a non-Playoff driver) took the checkered flag in the end. This time around, Rowdy has a lot more to gain by getting another win in Texas, but he should definitely be one of the favorites this weekend.

If you’d like to support the site you can do so by donating here.

How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.

Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers

Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Tyler Reddick – After his 2nd-place performance at the Charlotte ROVAL last weekend, Tyler Reddick has now finished runner-up three times in his young Cup Series career, including once here at Texas Motor Speedway (in the spring race last season). But that’s not the only reason to be optimistic with Reddick on Sunday; in the 550hp package this year, Tyler has the 10th-best average finish (12.7) and he also ranks 10th-best on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this year in both average finish (11.0) and average running position (10.8). It’s very possible that we could see another strong run from Reddick on Sunday.

Ross Chastain – Surprised to see Ross Chastain ranked so low by the algorithm this weekend? Well, it shouldn’t be too surprising when you actually dig into the numbers. For whatever reason, Chastain just hasn’t been good in the 550hp package this season, ranking 25th-best in average running position (22.0) and 28th-best in average finish (24.3). Ross has even struggled quite a bit specifically on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, with an average running position and average finish of 24.3, but I will note that he came home 14th at Kansas.

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

RankDriverPower
Index
1.Hamlin, Denny37.38
2.Larson, Kyle36.04
3.Busch, Kyle35.90
4.Blaney, Ryan30.77
5.Elliott, Chase30.10
6.Truex, Jr., Martin29.29
7.Byron, William28.73
8.Harvick, Kevin28.48
9.Keselowski, Brad26.17
10.Logano, Joey25.12
11.Dillon, Austin24.31
12.Reddick, Tyler23.85
13.Bowman, Alex20.30
14.Busch, Kurt19.65
15.Bell, Christopher16.81
16.Buescher, Chris12.70
17.DiBenedetto, Matt11.82
18.Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky08.36
19.Wallace, Bubba05.02
20.Jones, Erik-06.32
21.Almirola, Aric-10.81
22.Briscoe, Chase-11.15
23.Suarez, Daniel-11.75
24.Chastain, Ross-13.13
25.Newman, Ryan-24.53
26.McDowell, Michael-26.01
27.LaJoie, Corey-26.58
28.Custer, Cole-28.97
29.Preece, Ryan-29.46
30.Alfredo, Anthony-31.80
31.Haley, Justin-36.15
32.Ware, Cody-38.50
33.McLeod, BJ-39.83
34.Gase, Joey-40.66
35.Smithley, Garrett-41.97
36.Houff, Quin-42.45
37.Bilicki, Josh-42.57
38.Hill, Timmy-46.77
39.Starr, David-48.10
ADVERTISEMENT

Best Bets To Make For The NASCAR Playoff Race at Texas

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx Office Toyota, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on September 26, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Photo Credit: Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes my confidence in the betting card this weekend. What could go wrong, right?

With that being said, there are quite a few high-value plays out there, and, surprisingly, none of them are top 20s! But if this race goes to plan, the win should come down to one of three drivers, so I’m strategically sprinkling money on those guys to win, then going heavy on a few other props and H2Hs. Now let’s get to the card!

Need to find an edge on Head-to-Head betting matchups this week? Take a look at the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Sunday’s race and find those slam dunk bets.

Betting Card for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas

#JordanJinx

Denny Hamlin to Win (+700) – BetRivers opened their lines the earliest this week, as usual, and had both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch a little longer than expected–again, as usual. The algorithm says that Denny Hamlin is going to be in victory lane here on Sunday afternoon, and that it’s going to come down to either him, Kyle Busch, or Kyle Larson. And when you look at the numbers, it’s hard to argue; these guys will start 1-2-3 on Sunday, rank 1-2-3 in average running position on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, and also rank 1-2-3 in average finish with the 550hp package this year. I bet on all three of these guys outright for this weekend (more on that below), but made sure to bet Hamlin first so he would be the #JordanJinx.

Favorite Bet of the Week

Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (+100) – What a relatively easy way to double your money this weekend. Looking at the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, Kyle Busch has finished 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 3rd in the four races, and when you take a look at the 550hp package overall, Rowdy has eight top 5 finishes over those ten races with a worst result of 10th over that span. Also, Busch is the defending race winner here at Texas Motor Speedway, and is a four-time winner at this track. I’ll also be betting Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish (+200).

Rest of Jordan’s Card

William Byron Top 10 Finish (-167) – As RotoDoc and I talked about on Stacking Dennys this week, sportsbooks are giving William Byron longer odds than he should probably have due to the fact that he’s not in the Playoffs anymore. What this does, though, is create some major value in betting him for a top 3, top 5, or top 10 finish. Byron being at -167 for a top 10 on Sunday is an incredible value. This season on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Willy B has the 5th-best average running position (7.2) and 6th-best average finish (9.8), and when you look at the ten races with the 550hp package, he ranks 3rd-best in average running position (7.6) and 4th-best in average finish (8.5).

William Byron (-109) over Kevin Harvick – This was another one we talked about on the podcast this week, although we liked it at -120 on Tuesday afternoon. Then BetRivers posted their head-to-heads on Tuesday night and had William Byron at -109, and Harvick somehow favored in this matchup. Give me all of that. On a good day, Harvick is about an 8th-place car this weekend. A good day for William Byron would be contending for the win. In the 550hp package this year, Byron is 6-4 straight up against Harvick, but really should be 7-3 because of how the Las Vegas Playoff race played out.

Brad Keselowski (+120) over Joey Logano – This is another matchup where the odds don’t make a lot of sense. Brad Keselowski has been stronger than expected on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, with finishes of 2nd and 7th in the two Vegas races, a 3rd-place result at Kansas, and an 11th at Charlotte. Meanwhile, Logano has a best finish of 9th over those four races, and that result in the first Vegas race has been his only top 10. Head-to-head, Keselowski is 4-0 against Logano on the “low-wear” 1.5-milers this year, and 8-2 in the ten 550hp package races overall.

Cody Ware to Win Group F (+240) – …I can’t believe I’m betting this. Shoutout to DraftKings Sportsbook for giving us a Shitbox Special group to bet this weekend, but it’s kind of a lose-lose because either Cody Ware is going to cost me money, or he’s going to win me money, and I’m not sure my pride is worth the financial gain of that situation. Anyway, this Shitbox group consists of Ware, Josh Bilicki, Quin Houff, and Timmy Hill. Ware has completed 9 more laps than Houff on the “low-wear” 1.5-milers this season, 29 more laps than Bilicki, and Timmy Hill is going to be so off pace that it will take the other three wrecking for him to win this group. Cody Ware is the obvious bet here, and it’s honestly not even close.

Outright Winner Strategy for Texas

RotoDoc and I talked about my outright betting strategy on the Stacking Dennys podcast episode this week (click here), but basically here it is: I’d be surprised if the winner isn’t Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, or Kyle Busch. The algorithm has those three clearly above everyone else. I’m also throwing in William Byon as a longshot because I love the odds. Additionally, I hate betting really short favorites, so I’m using the weekly Caesars profit boost to get Larson to a more palatable number.

  • Kyle Larson to Win (+412) — used Caesars Sportsbook 50% profit boost on Wednesday
  • Denny Hamlin to Win (+700) — as mentioned before with the #JordanJinx
  • Kyle Busch to Win (+800)
  • William Byron to Win (+1900)

A couple other longshots I might consider doing a #SaltBae sprinkle on are Martin Truex, Jr. (+1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook) and Ryan Blaney (also +1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook).

ADVERTISEMENT

Texas Playoff Race Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
William Byron #24 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports doing a burnout after winning at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2021
Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

We’re officially in the second-to-last round of the Playoffs, and to kick off the Round of 8, the NASCAR Cup Series is going racing at Texas Motor Speedway with the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 on Sunday afternoon. We’ve actually raced here at Texas once this season, but it wasn’t a typical race. Instead, it was the All Star Race that had all of the re-shuffling and everything, but still, Kyle Larson ended up in victory lane (shocker). Similar tracks to look at this weekend are the two Las Vegas races as well as the Kansas race and the Charlotte race. All four of these tracks are considered “low-wear” 1.5-milers.

*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on race day.*

If you enjoy the FREE NASCAR content on this site and everything it has to offer, consider supporting by donating here.

Jordan’s Strategy Breakdown Video

(Hit Play Button To Watch & Click Here to Subscribe to My Channel on YouTube)

Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest Picks for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas

The Safe

Denny Hamlin ($12,400) – It’s hard to bet against Denny Hamlin right now, and as I said on the Stacking Dennys podcast this week, I think it’s going to be the #11 Toyota punching the first ticket official to Phoenix here on Sunday. The algorithm agrees with me. Hamlin and this #11 team have turned things up in a major way since these Playoffs have started, and he ranks inside the top 4 in both average running position as well as average finish on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this year. The same can be said about the 550hp package overall. Hamlin starts 2nd on Sunday so there’s basically no place differential potential, but he can win both Stages and the race if everything goes right. Plus, Joe Gibbs Racing seems to have an advantage overall here at Texas Motor Speedway; Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have combined for seven career wins at this track.

Kevin Harvick ($12,200) – Does Kevin Harvick have race-winning upside on Sunday afternoon? No. Does he have top 5 finishing upside? Probably not. But he should be able to pull off a top 10 finish, and with him starting back in 24th for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 on Sunday, that will equal a pretty solid fantasy score in this Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest while also being a relatively safe pick compared to the two other drivers priced above him (if bad luck strikes any of them). In the four “low-wear” 1.5-mile track races this season, Harvick has posted three top 10 finishes, and he’s 8-for-10 in the 550hp package when it comes to finishing 11th or better this year.

Kyle Busch ($11,800) – Kyle Busch is the lowest-priced of the three main contenders on Sunday–at least according to the algorithm–and also starts 3rd, which gives him a tiny bit of place differential upside compared to Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin (starting on the front row). I will say, all three of these drivers are very good picks on Sunday, but I like the price discount with Kyle Busch. He has an average finish of 2.5 on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season and a crazy-good 3.7 average finish in the ten 550hp package races. Rowdy is also the defending winner of this race and should contend again here on Sunday.

The Risky

William Byron ($11,300) – William Byron has definitely had some major “dud” finishes at low-wear 1.5-mile races throughout his career, but this season he’s been pretty solid, with finishes of 4th, 8th, and 9th before the Las Vegas Playoff race, where he finished 18th thanks to some bad luck. Overall, Byron ranks 5th in average running position (7.2) on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this year, and is 3rd-best in that statistic (7.6) with the 550hp package overall. On Sunday, Willy B will start from back in 12th but he should have enough speed to contend for a top 5 finish.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700) – If there’s one driver that could come out of left field (kind of) and get a win here on Sunday afternoon, it’s going to be Ryan Blaney. Six of the last seven races in the Lone Star State have ended with Young Ryan Blaney in 8th or better, and he’s led 148+ laps in two of the last eight races at this track–including this exact event last season. This year, Blaney posted top 5 finishes in both Las Vegas races and came home 5th here at Texas in the All Star Race back in June.

Ross Chastain ($8,800) – Ross Chastain will start from back in 25th on Sunday at Texas, and while that creates a huge opportunity for place differential points, make sure you proceed with caution. Chastain has been significantly worse with the 550hp package this season than what we’re used to seeing out of him. He ranks 28th-best in average finish (24.3) over those ten races and his average running position (22.0) isn’t much better, coming in at 25th-best. Additionally, Chastain has zero top 10s and only three top 20s over those ten races. There’s definitely place differential upside here, but I don’t think the #42 Chevrolet is a slam dunk pick on Sunday.

The Winner

“Race Winner” Pick = Kyle Larson – The algorithm says it’s going to be Denny Hamlin, and I think Kyle Busch also has a shot at this one, but how can you bet against Kyle Larson? We all know he’s going to be a contender on Sunday afternoon, and the 500-mile race really plays into his hands considering how the #5 team is so good at making the car better as the race goes on. “Yung Money” has the best average running position in the 550hp package this season (by a significant margin) and also ranks #1 in that statistic on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks in 2021 (again, by a significant margin).

ADVERTISEMENT

FanDuel NASCAR Driver Projections & Picks for Texas

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kyle Larson leading the field at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet 2021
Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

We continue on in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season with the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday afternoon. This will be a 500 mile race, which equates to 334 laps around this 1.5-mile track. Texas is a “low-wear” 1.5-mile venue and was repaved before the 2017 events were ran here, so we have eight races of relevant data to look at. NASCAR is using the 550hp package this weekend, which gives us ten races to look at this year that were ran with that package. When you throw it all together, it’s very clear who should be fast in Texas on Sunday.

If you enjoy the FREE NASCAR content on this site, consider supporting by donating here.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for Texas on Sunday afternoon according to my Projections is:

  • Kyle Larson
  • Ryan Blaney
  • William Byron
  • Kurt Busch
  • Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

Confidence Rating = 7.6/10. This is a pretty solid lineup, as Larson/Blaney/Byron all have solid top 5 potential while Kurt Busch could sneak in a top 10 and Stenhouse could run top 15. The biggest weakness here is if Kyle Larson doesn’t lead the most laps and/or doesn’t win the race. But if things go as expected, this is a really solid lineup. You could also switch out Kurt Busch for Kevin Harvick if you’d like.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Texas (Cash Lineups)

William Byron leading with his #24 Chevrolet at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Photo Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

William Byron ($9,800) – It’s always a good day when you can get a potential top 5 finisher on FanDuel with a salary of less than $10,000. William Byron has been one of the best cars on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season as well as in the 550hp package overall, he just sometimes has difficulty finishing the races out. Still, Willy B has finished in the single digits in three of the four “low-wear” 1.5-mile races this season and 9th or better in seven of the ten 550hp events (with four top 5s). Byron’s career best finish here at Texas Motor Speedway is 6th but that could change on Sunday.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($5,700) – FanDuel… what is this pricing? Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. starts back in 27th but should easily be a top 20, if not a top 15 car on Sunday afternoon. Stenhouse has finished 16th or better in five of the eight Texas races since the repave happened pre-2017, and in the 550hp package this season, he’s 7-for-10 when it comes to finishing in the top 15. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the #47 Chevrolet ends up in the wall on Sunday, but as long as that doesn’t happen, Stenhouse is a great pick.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Texas (Tournament Lineups)

Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon racing at Michigan International Speedway 2020
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

Ryan Blaney ($11,000) – The bulk of the laps led this weekend should go to “The Big Three” of this track type and package: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch. But let’s not count out Ryan Blaney, who will start from 4th on Sunday. Team Penske always seems to turn things up a notch when the postseason comes around, and this year is no exception, as all three drivers have made it into the Round of 8. Looking specifically at Blaney, he’s finished 6th or better in seven of the ten 550hp package races this year, and that includes a win at Michigan, where the teams ran this exact tire combination. They also ran this tire combination in both Las Vegas races, where Blaney finished 5th in each. Here at Texas, Blaney has finished 8th or better in six of the last seven races, and he’s led 403 total laps over the eight races ran here since the repave before the 2017 event.

Austin Dillon ($8,500) – Austin Dillon is popping in my FanDuel projections this week, and probably for good reason: he’s finished 14th or better in six of the last seven races at Texas Motor Speedway and even has a win on his resume thanks to some strategy in the summer race last season. Looking at the 550hp package races this year, Dillon has posted three top 10s and has just two results worse than 13th over that ten-race data set. I don’t mind rolling the dice with his teammate, Tyler Reddick ($8,200), either, who starts a little further up this weekend but has higher finishing upside than AD. Both have similar speed on similar tracks this year.

FanDuel Driver Projections for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Kyle Larson$14,50082.95192.20$175
Denny Hamlin$13,50078.25287.50$173
Kyle Busch$13,00076.33388.00$170
Ryan Blaney$11,00071.90481.90$153
Martin Truex Jr.$11,50071.82884.90$160
William Byron$9,80070.651277.40$139
Kevin Harvick$10,00069.902476.40$143
Chase Elliott$12,50069.25674.70$181
Kurt Busch$8,70067.801776.30$128
Brad Keselowski$9,50067.05773.80$142
Austin Dillon$8,50066.651572.10$128
Alex Bowman$9,20065.601475.10$140
Tyler Reddick$8,20063.65973.90$129
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$5,70062.552765.40$91
Matt DiBenedetto$7,50062.401371.90$120
Joey Logano$10,50060.95572.40$172
Christopher Bell$9,00059.401168.70$152
Ross Chastain$7,70058.052565.90$133
Chase Briscoe$6,70057.052664.90$117
Ryan Newman$5,50056.453159.90$97
Bubba Wallace$7,00054.801863.90$128
Chris Buescher$7,30054.301064.40$134
Daniel Suarez$6,50052.301956.90$124
Michael McDowell$5,00051.801659.90$97
Erik Jones$6,00051.202156.40$117
Aric Almirola$8,00050.452253.90$159
Anthony Alfredo$4,00048.852850.90$82
Ryan Preece$5,20048.702358.90$107
Corey LaJoie$4,50046.252949.90$97
Cole Custer$6,20045.102051.40$137
Justin Haley$4,00043.403246.90$92
B.J. McLeod$2,00042.903546.90$47
Cody Ware$3,00042.153443.40$71
Joey Gase$2,00040.803746.40$49
Garrett Smithley$2,00040.303642.90$50
Josh Bilicki$2,50037.203341.40$67
Quin Houff$3,50036.803039.90$95
Timmy Hill$2,00036.503939.90$55
David Starr$2,00034.503837.90$58
ADVERTISEMENT

The Stakes Get Bigger in Texas – Stacking Dennys Podcast

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

We’re coming off of a wild race at the Charlotte ROVAL, where Kyle Larson ended up in victory lane, the Chase Elliott/Kevin Harvick rivalry got a new spark, and four more drivers were eliminated from Playoff contention. On this episode of Stacking Dennys, Jordan McAbee of FantasyRacingOnline.com and Nick Giffen (a.k.a. “RotoDoc”) of Fantasy Labs talk about:

  • 0:49 – Chase Elliott Harvick feud
  • 12:16 – Should Talladega be a Playoff race?
  • 16:56 – How to handicap non-Playoff drivers to win
  • 33:06 – NASCAR touts really irritate Jordan
  • 40:35 – Will Rick Ware Racing win a race in 2022?
  • 49:55 – You should follow @drdiandra
  • 51:25 – Playoffs Update and Final 4 Predictions
  • 58:41 – Texas race preview and our favorite bets

You can listen below by using that embedded player or listen on:

ADVERTISEMENT
1...181920...275Page 19 of 275

Advertisement

William Byron Liberty University Paint Scheme 2021 Nashville Superspeedway

Coca-Cola 600 Starting Lineup if Qualifying is Rained Out

Jordan McAbee - 0
Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...
Erik Jones celebrating in victory lane at Darlington 2022

Sharps Moving NASCAR Betting Lines For Auto Club Speedway Race

Homestead DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Picks & Driver Projections (Dixie Vodka 400)

Kansas 2 DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Picks & Driver Projections (Hollywood Casino...

Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, waits on the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on August 15, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Darlington 2 DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Picks & Driver Projections (Cook Out...

Advertisement

Facebook Instagram Twitter Youtube