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Best Bets for the NASCAR Race at Charlotte ROVAL

By
Jordan McAbee
-
AJ Allmendinger, driver of the #16 Hyperice Chevrolet, drives during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on August 15, 2021 in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

After taking a weekend off of betting at Talladega (besides the Shitbox Special and a couple of small fliers) it’s time to get back on the horse with the Charlotte race on Sunday afternoon: the Bank of America ROVAL 400. This isn’t the typical Charlotte Motor Speedway that we all know, though: NASCAR is running the road course version of the track that includes certain parts of the speedway as well. This will be the fourth Cup Series race on the Charlotte ROVAL thus far. Ryan Blaney won the inaugural event while Chase Elliott has won the last two (surprise, surprise).

Need to find an edge on Head-to-Head betting matchups this week? Take a look at the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Sunday’s race and find those slam dunk bets.

Betting Card for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte

#JordanJinx

AJ Allmendinger to Win (+2100) – I don’t particularly like the guy, so that’s one reason why he’s the #JordanJinx this weekend, but also, AJ Allmendinger is one of the best road course racers in NASCAR, and getting him to 21-to-1 odds is great value. In the Xfinity Series, Dinger is 2-for-2 at getting wins here at the Charlotte ROVAL–heading into the weekend anyway–and he finished 7th here in his only Cup Series start back in 2018 with JTG Daugherty Racing. On road courses this year in the Kaulig car, AJ has finished 7th, 5th, 29th, and then got the win at the Indy Road Course. He’ll have to start from way back in 33rd on Sunday afternoon but Allmendinger still has a legitimate shot to win this race.

Favorite Bet of the Week

Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (-155) – It sure does seem like betting Chris Buescher for a top 20 is my favorite bet most weeks, doesn’t it? I swear I’m not a huge fan or anything, I just always see value here. Anyway, Buescher is a solid road course racer and has top 20 finishes in each of the last 16 races on this track type. Yes, you have to go back to 2016 when Buescher was with Front Row Motorsports to find the last time that he ended up worse than 20th on a road course. Here at the Charlotte ROVAL specifically, he’s finished 17th, 18th, and 20th in his three career starts.

Rest of Jordan’s Card

Chase Elliott to Win (+360) – As I mentioned on Twitter, I used Caesars Sportsbook’s 100% Profit Boost to get Chase’s odds to +360 on Sunday. It’s just so hard to bet against the guy that has finished 1st or 2nd in eight of the last ten road course races, plus the one that has went to victory lane in each of the last two events here at the Charlotte ROVAL specifically. Realistically, there are maybe two or three drivers that can contend with Chase Elliott on Sunday, and I’m taking the 2020 Cup Series Champ each time. Plus, Chase is only 9 points to the good above the Playoff cut line. He should be going all-out for a win on Sunday.

Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (+290) – My algorithm has Logano predicted to finish in 2nd on Sunday afternoon, so I’m definitely loving the +290 value here for a top 5 finish. Recently, Joey has had a rough go of things on the road courses–34th at Indy Road Course, 22nd at Watkins Glen, and 15th at Road America–but those weren’t all entirely his fault. Before that, Logano had three straight top 5 finishes on road courses this season, and he finished 2nd here at the Charlotte ROVAL in the fall of last year. In three career starts at this track, Logano has an average finish of 7.3.

DraftKings Parlay: All Team Penske Cars to Finish in the Top 10 (+1600) – It’s always fun each to bet a little bit on these random parlays that DraftKings throws out, but looking at this one, I’ll probably end up putting a few units on this one. First, my algorithm says this is going to happen, so that’s always a good sign. Second, it just passes the eye test: Ryan Blaney has a win here at the Charlotte ROVAL and has never finished worse than 8th in three starts, Joey Logano has never finished worse than 10th here in three starts, and Brad Keselowski has led in all three Charlotte ROVAL races and finished 5th here in 2019. As far as I’m concerned, the weakest link in this parlay is Keselowski, and that #2 team has been running significantly better in the Playoffs than we’re used to.

Tyler Reddick Top 20 Finish (-200) – Tyler Reddick’s starting position of 29th isn’t ideal for Sunday’s race at the Charlotte ROVAL, but all he has to do is have an incident-free race and he should be good for a top 20 finish. Reddick started 16th and finished 12th here at the Charlotte ROVAL last season and has finished top 20 in six of his eight career Cup Series road course starts. The two races he didn’t? At Indy Road Course earlier this year (he finished 21st) and at the Daytona Road Course back in February (major issues and finished 38th).

Additional #SaltBae Sprinkles

  • Joey Logano to Win (+2500)
  • Ryan Blaney to Win (+2600)
  • AJ Allmendinger Top 3 Finish (+650)
  • Chase Briscoe Top 20 Finish (-250)
  • Ryan Preece Top 20 Finish (+140)
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Charlotte ROVAL Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy Picks (Bank of America ROVAL 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott racing in turn at Daytona Road Course 2021
Photo Credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series marches on, as we go from the wildly unpredictable Talladega last weekend to the Charlotte ROVAL this weekend. Typically, road course races don’t have a lot of major issues, but that has a changed a little bit this year if you look back at the events at the Indy Road Course, Circuit of the Americas, and even the Daytona Road Course. Still, it’s hard to predict if anything is going to happen, but if nothing does, Sunday’s race should be pretty cut and dry–a.k.a. we know who is good at the road courses.

*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on race day.*

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Jordan’s Strategy Breakdown Video

(Hit Play Button To Watch & Click Here to Subscribe to My Channel on YouTube)

Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest Picks for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte

The Safe

Chase Elliott ($12,500) – Remember last weekend at Talladega where I mentioned Denny Hamlin is head and shoulders above everyone else when it comes to that track type? That’s the case with Chase Elliott at road courses as well. It’s pretty much borderline ridiculous how good Chase is at this track type, and the fact that he starts 8th this weekend and has a little bit of place differential upside makes him a slam dunk Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy pick. Elliott has only finished worse than 4th at a road course once in his last ten starts at this track type, and he’s won five of those ten races.

Kyle Larson ($12,400) – This really isn’t the week to go against the favorites, at least in my opinion. Kyle Larson’s move to Hendrick Motorsports this year has catapulted him into the “Elite” category of road course racers, and he’s tied with Chase Elliott with two wins at this track type in 2021 (at Sonoma and Watkins Glen). Here at the Charlotte ROVAL, Larson has only made one career start, and he finished 13th, but don’t forget that he had some issues in that race after winning the first Stage. Larson starts 10th on Sunday so there’s some place differential potential there as well; my only concern this weekend would be whether or not this #5 team “plays it safe” to make sure nothing catastrophic happens to their Championship hopes.

AJ Allmendinger ($12,200) – If you don’t pick AJ Allmendinger in the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest, you’re probably hoping he wrecks, because a driver of his caliber starting back in 33rd is like a dream come true with this NASCAR Fantasy game. Allmendinger has ran four road course races this year in the #16 Chevrolet for Kaulig Racing and has finished 7th or better in three of them (including a win at the Indy Road Course). Here at the Charlotte ROVAL specifically, The Dinger finished 7th here back in 2018 with JTG Daugherty, and he’s 2-for-2 when it comes to wins here in the Xfinity Series. He’s a safe Slingshot pick this weekend with great upside.

The Risky

Kyle Busch ($11,600) – Rowdy is an interesting NASCAR Fantasy play this weekend. He starts 9th, so there’s a little bit of place differential upside there, and he’s a really good road course racer. Plus, there’s the whole Playoff narrative as well: he’s right there on the cut line, so he can’t afford a bad race. But, man, the rovals have not been kind to Kyle Busch. Here at the Charlotte ROVAL, Rowdy has finished 32nd, 37th, and 30th in three starts, and at the Daytona Road Course he has finished 37th and 35th. However, looking at this season, in road course races where he didn’t have issues–Sonoma, Road America, Watkins Glen–Kyle Busch has top 5 results in each. This #18 Toyota should be fast on Sunday but with Busch’s track record on the rovals it definitely heightens the risk.

Alex Bowman ($10,600) – Alex Bowman is in a must-win situation if he wants to keep his Championship hopes alive, and I’m not sure I want that type of mentality for my Slingshot fantasy lineup. Yes, there’s obviously upside there, but when teams are desperate, more often than not it doesn’t work out. Still, in three career starts here at the Charlotte ROVAL, Bowman has finished 4th, 2nd, and 8th, and he has three top 10s in the six road course races ran this season. He’s one of those drivers that I won’t be surprised either way on Sunday (good run or bad run) but I’m probably going to look elsewhere in fantasy.

Christopher Bell ($10,000) – We know that Christopher Bell has race-winning upside at road courses. He won the Daytona Road Course race earlier this year and also finished 2nd at Road America. Plus, if you remember back to the Watkins Glen race, Bell was challenging for the race lead when the whole incident happened with Kyle Larson. The #20 Toyota ended up finishing 7th that day. This weekend, CBell starts up in 4th, so he really doesn’t have any place differential upside, but he should be able to get 10-15 Stage points to make up for that. He’s a pretty risky pick but could be a great value play at $10,000 in the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest.

The Winner

“Race Winner” Pick = Chase Elliott – He’s just too good at this track type, and he’s kind of close to the cutoff line in the Playoffs. I’d be surprised if Chase Elliott doesn’t win this race at the Charlotte ROVAL on Sunday.

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FanDuel NASCAR Driver Projections & Picks for Charlotte ROVAL

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Martin Truex, Jr. with Auto Owners Sherry Strong paint scheme at Indianapolis Road Course (brickyard) 2021
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Bank of America ROVAL 400 is on Sunday afternoon at Charlotte, and this marks our seventh and final road course race of the season. This is the only road course race in the Playoffs, so there will be plenty of storylines, but the fact of the matter is that we know who is good on this track type, and if nothing crazy happens, those drivers should finish up front. With that being said, we’ve seen plenty of craziness at road courses this year, and even here at the Charlotte ROVAL in the past, so make sure you keep that in mind when building lineups.

If you enjoy the FREE NASCAR content on this site, consider supporting by donating here.

Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for the Charlotte ROVAL on Sunday afternoon according to my Projections is:

  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Martin Truex, Jr.
  • William Byron
  • Christopher Bell
  • Kevin Harvick

Confidence Rating = 6.1/10. Any DFS lineup without Chase Elliott OR Kyle Larson is very risky this weekend. Those two are the best road course racers in the series right now, and it’s really not even close. I do like the Truex play in this lineup, and obviously Allmendinger and Bell. With Harvick, the price is insanely cheap, but Byron is another one of those risky plays. If I was building a lineup by hand, it would take me a while to land on this one.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Charlotte ROVAL (Cash Lineups)

AJ Allmendinger and Michael Shank at Road America
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

AJ Allmendinger ($12,000) – This one doesn’t even need an explanation. AJ Allmendinger being priced this far behind Chase Elliott ($14,500) and Kyle Larson ($14,000) by FanDuel this week is laughable. No other driver has more place differential upside this weekend than The Dinger, who will roll off the starting grid from 33rd on Sunday. AJ has finished 7th or better in three of his four Cup Series road course starts this season, and ran 7th here at the Charlotte ROVAL back in 2018 while with JTG Daugherty Racing. Additionally, Allmendinger has won the last two Xfinity races at this track heading into this weekend. He’s a solid play at $12,000 on FanDuel.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,500) – This salary just makes no sense. Martin Truex, Jr. is an elite road course racer and is priced $3,000 under Chase Elliott on FanDuel this weekend. Yeah, Elliott is more likely to win this race, and will probably lead more laps, but unless Truex wrecks or something, the fantasy points gap shouldn’t be anywhere near as wide as the salary gap. Truex has been in contention in all three of his Charlotte ROVAL starts and has finished 3rd or better in five of the last eleven road course races in the Cup Series. Starting 5th isn’t ideal for place differential but MTJ should run top 5 all day on Sunday.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Charlotte ROVAL (Tournament Lineups)

Ryan Blaney, the #12 Ford, races with Cole Custer, the #41 Ford at the Charlotte ROVAL in 2020
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Ryan Blaney ($8,000) – Ryan Blaney can be hit or miss on the road courses (five of the six races this season have ended with him in 10th or worse), but the upside is there at times, too. Blaney lucked into a win here at the Charlotte ROVAL in the first race here back in 2018, and has since followed that up with finishes of 8th and 5th at this track. He also has top 5 finishes to his name at Watkins Glen and Sonoma back in 2019. Young Ryan Blaney starts 6th in Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 and if he can just run with the leaders all day, a top 6 finish out of a $8,000 will be a great value here on FanDuel.

Kevin Harvick ($7,500) – Harvick may get quite a bit of ownership on Sunday due to his extremely low price (wtf, FanDuel?) but, then again, he starts up in 7th, so that could deter some DFS players from rolling the dice on him. Additionally, Harvick has finished 14th or worse in four of the six road course races this season. Still, “Happy” has finished of 9th, 3rd, and 11th in his three starts here at the Charlotte ROVAL and came home 6th at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year (the other roval road course). I like how this #4 team is running right now and Harvick should be a solid top 10 finisher on Sunday.

FanDuel Driver Projections for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Chase Elliott$14,50055.52862.10$261
Kyle Larson$14,00055.221063.80$254
AJ Allmendinger$12,00053.153370.80$226
Martin Truex Jr.$11,50051.22557.70$225
Joey Logano$11,00046.43353.20$237
William Byron$10,00045.251149.40$221
Kurt Busch$10,50044.801349.80$234
Christopher Bell$8,70043.70456.50$199
Kyle Busch$12,50043.40950.40$288
Tyler Reddick$9,00043.152954.40$209
Alex Bowman$9,80041.901250.70$234
Denny Hamlin$13,00041.75151.20$311
Ross Chastain$9,50041.652751.90$228
Ryan Blaney$8,00041.55652.30$193
Kevin Harvick$7,50040.90748.30$183
Chase Briscoe$9,20040.902255.70$225
Matt DiBenedetto$8,50039.153044.40$217
Cole Custer$7,10034.402351.40$206
Brad Keselowski$8,20033.80242.10$243
Chris Buescher$7,70033.651637.40$229
Austin Dillon$6,90032.901446.90$210
Ryan Preece$5,50032.403135.90$170
Erik Jones$6,70031.401739.40$213
Aric Almirola$6,50031.152135.40$209
Michael McDowell$7,30030.901938.90$236
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$5,90026.901833.90$219
Daniel Suarez$4,50025.902531.40$174
Joey Hand$2,00025.053633.90$80
Corey LaJoie$6,30023.052631.90$273
Justin Haley$4,00022.453824.40$178
Ryan Newman$5,30022.052426.40$240
Scott Heckert$2,50020.203524.40$124
Cody Ware$2,50016.953227.40$147
Anthony Alfredo$3,50016.202022.90$216
Bubba Wallace$5,00016.051523.40$312
Josh Bilicki$2,50015.853722.40$158
Timmy Hill$2,00014.753921.90$136
Garrett Smithley$2,00014.603422.40$137
Quin Houff$2,00011.352817.90$176
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One More For The Road (Charlotte ROVAL Playoff Preview) – Stacking Dennys Podcast

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 McDonald's Toyota, prepares to race prior to the NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on October 04, 2021 in Talladega, Alabama.
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Bubba Wallace took the victory at Talladega last weekend, which means there are seven more spots to lock in at the Charlotte ROVAL race this weekend with the remaining Playoff drivers. On this episode of Stacking Dennys, Jordan McAbee of FantasyRacingOnline.com and Nick Giffen (a.k.a. “RotoDoc”) of Fantasy Labs talk about:

  • 1:00 – Talladega recap
  • 14:00 – Should all tracks have lights?
  • 22:42 – DFS players are dumb
  • 47:55 – Playoff cutoff race predictions
  • 57:30 – Charlotte ROVAL Preview

You can listen below by using that embedded player or listen on:

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Starting Lineup for Charlotte Bank of America ROVAL 400

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski racing at Phoenix in the 2020 finale race
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The Round of 12 for this year’s Playoffs wraps up this weekend with the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte. This will be our 7th and final road course race of the season. So far we’ve seen Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott (twice), Kyle Larson (twice), and AJ Allmendinger have all gone to victory lane on the road courses this year. The NASCAR Cup Series has ran three races here at the Charlotte ROVAL with Chase Elliott winning two of the three and Ryan Blaney winning the inaugural one.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Starting Lineup

  1. Denny Hamlin
  2. Brad Keselowski
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Christopher Bell
  5. Martin Truex, Jr.
  6. Ryan Blaney
  7. Kevin Harvick
  8. Chase Elliott
  9. Kyle Busch
  10. Kyle Larson
  11. William Byron
  12. Alex Bowman
  13. Kurt Busch
  14. Austin Dillon
  15. Bubba Wallace
  16. Chris Buescher
  17. Erik Jones
  18. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
  19. Michael McDowell
  20. Anthony Alfredo
  21. Aric Almirola
  22. Chase Briscoe
  23. Cole Custer
  24. Ryan Newman
  25. Daniel Suarez
  26. Corey LaJoie
  27. Ross Chastain
  28. Quin Houff
  29. Tyler Reddick
  30. Matt DiBenedetto
  31. Ryan Preece
  32. Cody Ware
  33. AJ Allmendinger
  34. Garrett Smithley
  35. Scott Heckert
  36. Joey Hand
  37. Josh Bilicki
  38. Justin Haley
  39. Timmy Hill

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