One word we haven’t heard in a while might come into play with the AAA Texas 500 today: rain. Brian Neudorff estimates that there’s a 70% chance that NASCAR gets the race in today, with about a 55% chance of getting a full race in (read his article and any updates here). We’re going to approach this race without thinking of that factor, though, because there’s really no way to predict how teams are going to handle it. There’s really no clear cut favorite to win today’s race, and there are plenty of opportunities for place differential FPTS for some high-dollar drivers. What it’s going to come down to is whether it will be better to take one or two of those guys or whether someone like Brad Keselowski or Kevin Harvick (who both start in row 2 today) will take off and lead a bunch of laps, in which it would be more beneficial to have them.

Other posts to read: Drivers to Target at Texas 2 and Drivers to Avoid at Texas 2 posts.

Lineup #1

The more we looked at the numbers overnight, the more we thought that Brad Keselowski has the best chance to dominate this race. This Lineup also features Chase Elliott, who is a very boom or bust play this week. He has a car that can get to the front, and we saw him finish top 5 here back in April. Hopefully he can replicate that finish.

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Chase Elliott
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Greg Biffle
6. Trevor Bayne

Lineup #2

Kevin Harvick has a great long-run car for today’s AAA Texas 500, it’s just that he doesn’t get off to the best start. However, we anticipate a lot of green flag racing today, so that might not be a problem for him. He qualified 3rd, and when he starts up front and has a fast car, there’s some major dominator potential there. Jimmie Johnson is on there for the place differential factor.

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Greg Biffle
5. Trevor Bayne
6. Chris Buescher

Lineup #3

This is another Lineup that assumes Brad Keselowski is going to dominate this race. We also have Kyle Busch on there, who needs to find a little more speed this weekend, but we’re confident that he will. He’s very good at this track, though, and if Rowdy can get things figured out here, he’s going to score a bunch of place differential FPTS.

1. Kyle Busch
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Greg Biffle
6. David Ragan

Lineup #4

Joey Logano starts on the outside pole and although he hasn’t really dominated a race this season (outside of Michigan), he still hasn’t forgotten how to race at these intermediate race tracks. He’s also decently cheap this week, for his caliber anyway, so that allows you to take a chance on him.

1. Joey Logano
2. Chase Elliott
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Ryan Newman
6. Chris Buescher

There aren’t quite as many bonus FPTS up for grabs at Texas 2 this weekend as there were at Martinsville 2 last weekend, but the Sprint Cup Series is still set to run 334 laps around this 1.5-mile race track on Sunday, so there’s still quite a few. The key for DraftKings players this weekend is correctly picking who the dominator is going to be and having them in your lineup. Typically with the races here at Texas, there are only one or two drivers that lead most of the race, and recent trends have seen very little “movers” in the races. This weekend, however, there are quite a few good drivers starting mid-pack, so we could see quite a few guys making their way through the field on Sunday.

High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas 2 (over $9,500)

Kevin Harvick ($10,900) – The #4 Chevrolet has a little trouble getting going this weekend, but after about five or six laps, there’s probably not any car that is faster on the long runs. And considering we usually see at least one very long green flag run here at Texas, that bodes well for Kevin Harvick. He’s never been to victory lane here in the Lone Star State but you have to assume that it’s going to happen sooner rather than later. After all, Harvick has finished 2nd or 3rd in three of the last four races here. All of the very high-priced drivers are potential options in DraftKings this weekend, we just need to figure out which one is going to score the highest. Harvick doesn’t have much room for place differential FPTS this weekend since he qualified 3rd, but if he’s able to go out and lead 100+ laps to start the race, that’ll more than make up for that.

Brad Keselowski ($9,600) – While the higher-priced guys like Harvick, Johnson, and Truex do look enticing this weekend, don’t overlook Brad Keselowski’s potential for a monster day in Texas on Sunday. Don’t forget that the #2 Ford dominated this race one year ago, leading 312 of the 334 laps before ultimately finishing 2nd. BK has another great car this weekend and was one of the best when it came to ten-lap average during both practice sessions on Saturday. Keselowski qualified 4th for Sunday’s AAA Texas 400, but if he’s able to get in front of the field early, he might be able to run away with this one. Going into the race, we have Kevin Harvick as the most likely to lead the most laps, followed closely by both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. The latter has three top 5s in the last four Texas races and should contend for the win this weekend, which would be his first career victory at this track.

Jimmie Johnson ($10,800) – If you have an argument for not considering Jimmie Johnson at Texas this weekend, we’d like to hear it. In last year’s November race at this track, it was Johnson that went to victory lane. In the 2014 November race, Johnson won again. In November 2013, Jimmie Johnson. Although in the 2012 November race… just kidding, it was Jimmie Johnson once again. The guy is an absolute fantasy ace at this race track and the only thing he’s focused on this weekend is winning since he’s already locked into the Homestead finale. And while the #48 Chevrolet didn’t have the most speed in it during qualifying on Friday (Johnson will start 19th), it looked pretty good during the two practice sessions on Saturday. Jimmie’s ten-lap average in Happy Hour was only 15th-best overall, but it was 2nd-best among runs on older tires. If you can afford him, Jimmie Johnson should be a great DraftKings pick this weekend.

Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas 2 (between $7,500 and $9,500)

Carl Edwards ($8,900) – One guy that seems to be flying under the radar this weekend is Carl Edwards. The #19 team brought a brand new race car to the Lone Star State this weekend, and it has a whole bunch of speed in it. Edwards had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday and then wound up 5th on that chart in Happy Hour. What makes that even more impressive is the fact that Edwards usually doesn’t make long runs during practice unless he has a really good race car. Carl is a three-time winner at Texas Motor Speedway and we honestly think he might be contend for the win here on Sunday. He starts 9th, so there’s a little room for place differential FPTS, and Cousin Carl might be the most under-priced driver in DraftKings this weekend. If you can afford him, you should pull the trigger.

Chase Elliott ($9,200) – This is a high-risk, high-reward driver, but there’s quite a few things to like about Chase Elliott this weekend. The #24 Chevrolet has arguably been one of the best cars on the intermediate tracks lately, and Chase Elliott has shown that he can get to the front. What he’s had a problem doing is staying up there and/or getting the finish he deserves. However, the last time we raced here at Texas, Elliott came home 5th, and we’re actually expecting a similar race out of him this weekend. Chase had good long and short run speed during Happy Hour on Saturday and that will really pay dividends on Sunday. Also, Elliott will start from 11th when this race goes green, so there’s some room for place differential FPTS as well.

Kasey Kahne ($8,400) – Place differential, place differential, place differential. Kasey Kahne somehow qualified way back in in 31st this weekend, but the #5 Chevrolet is much better than that in race trim, as Kahne had top 20 speed in both practice sesssions and ranked 19th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. However, even a 20th-place run out of Kasey on Sunday is going to net DraftKings owners 35+ FPTS, which isn’t too bad considering the #5 Chevrolet should end up even higher than that. Kahne has finished 11th or better in five of the last seven races here at Texas and has wound up 12th or better in eight of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall. He’s a little pricey this weekend, but if you can afford Kahne on Sunday, he should pay off quite nicely.

Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas 2 (under $7,500)

Clint Bowyer ($7,100) – On Saturday, Clint Bowyer showed enough speed to get our attention, so while he is a little bit pricey, he might end up being worth it on Sunday. Throughout his career, Bowyer has finished inside the top 10 in ten of his twenty-one total starts at Texas Motor Speedway (47.6%), and while he isn’t in that great of equipment now, a top 20 wouldn’t be too crazy of a finish for Bowyer on Sunday. And when you consider the fact that he qualified back in 27th this weekend, a 20th-place result would net DraftKings owners 30+ FPTS for the day.

Trevor Bayne ($6,700) – We like all of the Roush-Fenway drivers in DraftKings this weekend, but between the three, we have to put Trevor Bayne as the top option. He qualified back in 26th for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, but the #6 Ford should be quite better than that in actual race conditions. Bayne was 8th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and then lost some speed during Happy Hour. But still, a top 20 is within reach for him. Trevor ran 15th when we last raced here in April and has now finished 19th or better in four of the last seven races here in the Lone Star State. On recent intermediate tracks (Charlotte and Kansas), Bayne has finished 18th and 17th.

Michael McDowell ($5,600) – Somehow Michael McDowell stayed down in price this weekend, but we’re not complaining. Comparatively speaking, McDowell has been a fantasy stud over the last month, with 34 or more FPTS scored in each of the last four races. This weekend, McDowell qualified 28th, so if he’s going to get to that mark once again, he’s going to have to finish 19th on Sunday. However, that’s not entirely out of reach for this #95 team. McDowell was 6th-fastest in Practice #2 (with the 12th-best ten-lap average) and then wound up 14th-fastest in Happy Hour. This McDowell bubble is going to burst soon, but until that happens we might as well hang on and enjoy the ride.

The races at Texas Motor Speedway are pretty similar to other intermediate track events, especially when it comes to the drivers you want to avoid in DraftKings. As usual, you’re going to want to stay away from the guys that qualified up front and don’t have dominator potential, as well as those that have struggled at similar tracks this season. The drivers that qualified in that borderline 15th through 25th range are going to be the ones where it’ll get interesting. Typically the races here at Texas don’t see an incredible amount of passing, but it’s not impossible. When we were last here (in April), the drivers who started 1st through 4th all ended up inside the top 7.

The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.

“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Texas 2 AAA 500

Austin Dillon ($7,900) – This shouldn’t be too surprising. If you’re going to start up front at an intermediate race track, you’re going to lead a bunch of laps in order to be a viable option in DraftKings. And leading laps isn’t exactly something that Austin Dillon is accustomed to; this is his third full Sprint Cup season and so far he has only led a total of 60 laps. Some drivers lead that many laps in one race. With that being said, the #3 Chevrolet does look like it has quite a bit of speed in it this weekend, but you can’t really expect much more than a top 10 out of Austin on Sunday, and in order for him to be a decent option in DraftKings with a 10th-place finish, the #3 Chevrolet is going to have to post about 40 laps led/fastest laps, and we just don’t see that happening.

Paul Menard ($6,600) – If a race came down to laying down a single fast lap, Paul Menard would have a lot more Sprint Cup wins than he currently has. The same goes with Kyle Larson. However, the races here at Texas usually have quite a lot of green flag laps, and that means you need a race car that maintains speed over the course of a run (and when the tires wear out). Driving on worn-out tires isn’t exactly Paul Menard’s strong suit. The #27 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 6th when the AAA Texas 500 goes green on Sunday, but you can’t reasonably expect Paul Menard to run up there over the course of the day. He has just one top 10 finish in the last ten races here at Texas, and that was a 9th-place finish in the April 2014 race. We’re expecting a finish of around 20th for Menard on Sunday, and that’s only going to net owners 10 base FPTS in DraftKings.

Kyle Larson ($9,100) – Kyle Larson is always an intriguing option at intermediate track races that have a nice, high racing line to use, but more often than not it doesn’t work out. For Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, Larson qualified 5th, which means he’s going to need to lead quite a few laps in order for it to be worth the risk in rostering him on DraftKings. Do we think it’s possible that a gamble on Larson pays off? Sure. Is it likely? No. Larson also started 5th in this race one year ago but finished back in 37th, and that makes it four results of 14th or worse in six career Sprint Cup starts at Texas for him. He’s also never led a single lap here, nor has he led a single lap since the Chase started. Don’t get caught up in the potential that Kyle Larson has on a weekly basis, he’s not worth the risk this weekend. He also should have a decently high ownership percentage.

“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Texas 2 AAA 500

Denny Hamlin ($8,800) – We think that fading Denny Hamlin is going to be the best move in DraftKings this weekend. He should be pretty highly owned in the game, and when you look at his 17th-place starting spot for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, it probably wouldn’t be a terrible idea to have him in your lineup. However, we can think of a few reasons. First of all, the #11 Toyota was absolutely terrible during the first practice session on Saturday, and any time you’re “wrecking loose” during practice, just imagine how much worse that’s going to get during the actual race and a long green flag run. We wouldn’t be surprised if Hamlin spun at some point on Sunday. The other reason we’re not terribly high on Denny Hamlin this weekend is the fact that he hasn’t finished better than 10th at Texas since the 2013 season, and he hasn’t had a top 5 since 2010. Hamlin might struggle to get to the top 10 this weekend.

A.J. Allmendinger ($7,600) – A.J. Allmendinger is now solidly in the mid-$7,000 price range and because of that he’s not really a viable option in DraftKings this weekend. Not only that, but he qualified 14th for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500. He might be worth the price if he started back in the mid-20s. The Dinger does have some fantasy value this weekend, though, as he has ended up 17th and 14th in the last two November races here at Martinsville, but we’re looking at 24 and 30 base FPTS if he would finish in either of those spots this weekend. It’d be a very good race out of this #47 team if they finished 15th, so there’s really no need to even consider Allmendinger in DraftKings this weekend.

Matt Kenseth ($9,800) – This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” designation, but as far as DraftKings goes, we don’t see any situation where Matt Kenseth is going to be worth the $9,800 price tag on Sunday. He has a pretty good car, yes, but the #20 Toyota isn’t one of those cars that can go out there and dominate the race. We honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Kenseth didn’t lead a single lap on Sunday. He should be a solid top 10 car, but probably not a top 5 threat unless a few crazy things happen during the race. Therefore, we’re looking at a base FPTS score of around 40 in DraftKings, and that’s just not worth it at this high price–especially when you have guys like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski right below that. Kenseth’s best finish in his last four starts here at Texas has been 7th.

“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Driver for the Texas 2 AAA 500

Ryan Blaney ($7,500) – Usually with rookies you don’t really have much of a statistical past to look at for a race. However, Sunday will mark Ryan Blaney’s fourth career Sprint Cup start here at Texas Motor Speedway, and we’re willing to bet that he posts a career-best finish. But that’s not really saying much. Blaney hasn’t been able to finish better than 29th here at Texas, and that includes the race here back in April when he qualified 7th. He will start from 8th when this weekend’s AAA Texas 500 goes green, and while the #21 Ford did look quite speedy during the two practice sessions on Saturday, we’re not falling for it. Honestly, we don’t think this type of race track really suits Blaney’s driving style. He finished 25th in the Atlanta race earlier this year, which is the track most similar to Texas. You won’t find Ryan Blaney on any of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters this weekend.