If this Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway turns out as expected, the best strategy in DraftKings is going to be to target place differential FPTS. Anybody, and we mean anybody, can finish up front in these restrictor plate races, and often times there will be a whole lot of different lap leaders throughout the race, and not one dominator. As far as fastest lap FPTS, those will be even more spread out than laps led FPTS. Because of all of the different possible driver combinations this weekend, there’s quite a few drivers that would be good to target. Therefore, we’re going to only look at two in each price tier (three with the mid-dollar drivers), as we could make an argument for just about any driver in the field.

High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega 2 (over $9,500)

Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – Drafting Brad Keselowski is going to bring with it a whole lot of risk this weekend (because he starts 2nd), but at the same time, if one driver is going to dominate this race on Sunday, it’s going to be Keselowski. He’s not in a must-win situation to advance in the Chase, but it’s close, so you know that Brad is going to be doing anything he can to get to victory lane on Sunday. It helps that the #2 Ford was very fast during qualifying on Saturday, and don’t forget that Keselowski went to victory lane here at Talladega the last time we were here. That was actually his fourth career win at this track, and he’s now second to just Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for the most wins here. Keselowski has the 3rd-best average finish on plate tracks this season (7.3) along with the best average driver rating (112.9). As we said, this is a very risky pick, but we really think Brad Keselowski is going to be the highest scoring driver in DraftKings this weekend.

Kyle Busch ($10,100) – Kyle Busch has a pretty good points advantage in the Chase standings heading into Sunday, but don’t assume that that automatically means he’s going to be points racing in the Hellmann’s 500. This is still Kyle Busch we’re talking about, and don’t forget that he was “points racing” at Dover in the last round and almost went out and won the race. Rowdy has a near-perfect average finish of 2.3 on the restrictor plate tracks this season, which is even more impressive when you consider the fact that he hasn’t won any of them. Here at Talladega, he has finished 12th or better in four of the last five races and has posted a top 5 in four of the last eight. Busch qualified 14th for this weekend’s race so there’s room for place differential in addition to the high finish points he should also accumulate.

Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega 2 (between $7,000 and $9,500)

Joey Logano ($9,500) – This #22 team is fighting for their Chase life this weekend, and they’re going to have some work to do after qualifying 16th for Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500. However, with his teammate being Brad Keselowski, we have a feeling that Joey will have a car that is plenty good enough to get to the front. Logano went to victory lane in this race last season and hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the fall race here in the last three years. We don’t expect that to change this weekend. As far as the three restrictor plate races this season, Logano has averaged a finish of 11.7 (which is 4th-best in the series) with an average driver rating of 97.3 (also 4th-best).

Ryan Newman ($7,800) – Ryan Newman used to be the automatic “avoid” pick whenever there was a restrictor plate race, but lately he has really turned things around and has actually been a pretty solid pick. Over the last eight races here at Talladega Superspeedway, Newman has ended up 12th or better in five of them, and four of those were also top 10 finishes for “The Rocketman.” This weekend, Newman is relatively low priced for the potential value that he will have on race day, and he qualified 20th for the Hellmann’s 500, so there’s some room for place differential FPTS there. A lot of people are probably going to skip over Newman this weekend, so that gives you a chance to capitalize on those points if he has a very good race on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer ($7,400) – Clint Bowyer scored a whole bunch of FPTS in the last race here at Talladega, and don’t be surprised if he puts up another 40+ FPTS week on Sunday. Bowyer qualified 36th for Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, but if you know anything about the races at this track, you know that starting position means nothing. Overall, Clint Bowyer has twelve top 10s in twenty-one career starts here at Talladega (57.1%), six of which were also top 5s (28.6%). In the last six events here, however, Bowyer has finished inside the top 10 in five of them. We know that it’s impossible to trust Clint and this #15 Chevrolet because of the chance for mechanical issues, but don’t forget that this team has found quite a bit of speed as of late, and we’re going into Clint Bowyer’s best track on the circuit. He should be worth every penny in DraftKings this weekend.

Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega 2 ($7,000 and under)

Michael McDowell ($6,400) – Michael McDowell took a huge price hike this weekend, but it’s actually justified: he’s been damn good in the restrictor plate races this season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, McDowell finished 15th after starting 39th (+24 place differential), and then at the first Talladega race he started 31st and finished 21st (+10). When we went back to Daytona in July, McDowell wound up 10th after starting 37th (+27). Now obviously it’s hard to expect a top 20 finish out of a guy like Michael McDowell on Sunday, but at the same time, it’s often times best to go with the hot hand on these plate tracks. Additionally, McDowell has been running well over the last six Sprint Cup races overall, with an average finish of 22.2 in those events. He qualified 34th for Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500 and is probably the best low-dollar driver option in DraftKings this weekend.

A.J. Allmendinger ($7,000) – A.J. Allmendinger is another relatively low-dollar option who has performed well on the restrictor plate tracks this season. He finished 21st in the season-opening Daytona 500 after starting 30th (+9 place differential), and then wound up 13th after starting 26th in the second Daytona race of the season (+13). In the first race here at Talladega this season, Allmendinger started 28th and finished 14th (+14). This weekend, the #47 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 32nd when the race goes green on Sunday, but he should end up much better than that: Allmendinger has finished 17th or better in three of the last five Talladega races, including a career-best 5th here back in 2014.

These restrictor plate races here at Talladega (and at Daytona) are some of the most frustrating for all Fantasy NASCAR players, simply because you can go from having a very good week to having a terrible week in one second. Now obviously the opposite could also happen, but we’ve never really experienced that (ha!). Anyway, from a DraftKings perspective, it’s best to stay away from all of the drivers that start up front, simply because of the whole place differential thing. This weekend there are a few very good Fantasy NASCAR picks that will go against that rule, but it should still mostly be followed, in our opinion. We’re not using our usual categories for drivers to avoid in DraftKings this weekend, but those will be back next week with the Martinsville 2 race.

DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Talladega 2 Hellmann’s 500

Carl Edwards ($9,300) – Despite being in a good position in the points race heading into Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, don’t be surprised if he is on the bubble at some point during this weekend’s race. In the three restrictor plate races this season, Carl Edwards has averaged a finish of just 21.7, and in the last five races here at Talladega specifically, he has just one result better than 21st. The good news for Edwards fans is that that finish came in this race one year ago, where Carl ended up 5th, but that’s one of just six top 10s he has here in twenty-four career starts (25%). The #19 Toyota will start from 13th when this weekend’s race goes green, but we honestly think it’s going to be a little difficult for Carl to improve on that, and at $9,300 in DraftKings, he won’t end up being a very good driver on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – After winning here at Talladega back in 2014, Denny Hamlin finally broke through over at Daytona with his win in this year’s Great American Race. He then followed that up with a 31st-place finish in the first race here at Talladega back in May, and then the #11 Toyota wound up 17th in the second race at Daytona in July. But that’s not the reason we’re telling you to avoid Hamlin this weekend. Because actually, he ran pretty well in those races, and in the three restrictor plate events this season, Hamlin’s average driver rating has been 100.2 (3rd-best in the series). No, this “avoid” designation is actually us telling you to fade Denny Hamlin on Sunday, because he’s probably going to be on quite a few teams. The thing is, this team and driver have not proven to be clutch yet, and that’s what they’re going to need to be on Sunday if they want to advance in the Chase. Hamlin also starts 8th in this weekend’s Hellmann’s 500, which is a little higher than we’d like. Additionally, he’s started 8th in the last two Talladega races as well, but ended up finishing 31st and 37th in those two races (not that that means anything, it’s just a statistic).

Chase Elliott ($8,800) – We don’t know about you, but a rookie that has been having problems finishing races, who is also starting 4th in Sunday’s restrictor plate race doesn’t quite seem like the best option in DraftKings. Yes, Chase Elliott did have that nice 5th-place finish here back in May after starting on the pole, but let’s not forget that he started on the pole for this year’s Daytona 500 and ended up finishing 37th, and then Chase went on to finish 32nd in the second race at Daytona back in July. So while it is very possible that the #24 Chevrolet will get up there and lead a handful of laps during Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, it’s nowhere near a guarantee, nor is it likely that Elliott also finishes up there. He might be worth a shot if he was in the mid-$7,000 range, but that’s not the case. Chances are it’s going to be best to avoid Chase Elliott this weekend.

Matt Kenseth ($9,000) – We’re sticking with the Joe Gibbs Racing guys as those to avoid this weekend, there’s no way this could backfire (sarcasm). Anyway, Matt Kenseth is a streaky driver at these restrictor plate race tracks, and right now he’s not doing so well. In the three races at Daytona and Talladega this season, Kenseth has averaged a finish of 21.7, and in the last six races specifically here at Talladega, he has just one finish better than 20th. When you pair that with the fact that the #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 3rd when we go green on Sunday, it’s going to take a lot for Kenseth to be a good pick in DraftKings. Specifically, he will need to lead a lot of laps in order to mitigate the risk of negative place differential points, and we just don’t see him leading a whole lot considering Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex, Jr. are already starting up front.

Kyle Larson ($8,600) – Larson struggled on the restrictor plate tracks initially, but he seems to have figured out Daytona a little bit, as Kyle finished 7th and 6th in the two races there this season. As far as Talladega goes, though, he hasn’t quite gotten the hang of it yet. And you may be thinking that because they’re restrictor plate tracks that there’s really no difference, but that’s not the case at all. Larson did finish 9th here at Talladega back in 2014 but hasn’t mustered a result better than 17th in the four races that he has ran here since then. A lot of DraftKings players are probably going to target Kyle Larson this weekend due to his 24th-place starting spot, but we don’t think it’s going to work out for those people. We’ve been wrong before, though.

Chris Buescher ($6,000) – Chris qualified back in 33rd for this Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, but don’t fall for the trap: he’s been absolutely atrocious on the restrictor plate race tracks in 2016. It started with his 39th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, and then Buescher followed that up with a 37th-place result here at Talladega back in May. Then when we went back to Daytona in July, the #34 Ford wound up dead last. So, yeah, not good. We firmly believe that the drivers that have performed the best on the plate tracks this season are the ones to target this weekend, and the same goes with avoiding the ones that have performed the worse. Average finish-wise, nobody has been worse than Chris Buescher. There’s plenty of other low-dollar options in DraftKings this weekend that should score more points than him.