If history repeats itself, place differential FPTS are going to be the main thing to target here at Chicagoland Speedway on Sunday afternoon. Over the last five races here, the average starting position of the winner is 20.6, and in each of those same five races three of the top 5 finishers started outside of the top 10. However, qualifying was cancelled on Friday so the starting lineup will be set via points–therefore, all of the best cars will start up front. Expect to see quite a few different lap leaders this week, so while we have been focusing on laps led FPTS over the last couple of races, that’s probably not going to be the best strategy this weekend. If you’re looking for tracks that are similar to Chicagoland so that you can analyze those races, we believe that Las Vegas and Kansas are the two closest.

High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Chicagoland ($9,000 or above)

Kevin Harvick ($10,800) – Harvick will start from 4th on Sunday, so the place differential FPTS potential is low, but he might have the best car in the field for this weekend’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 and that could mean a bunch of laps led. Harvick won the first two times he visited this track (2001 and 2002) but hasn’t been to victory lane since at Chicagoland. Will that change on Sunday? It’s very possible. The #4 Chevrolet had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday and then wound up 3rd-best on that chart in the final session. Harvick has posted three top 5s in the last five Chicagoland races and definitely has a car capable of getting another solid result this weekend. He’s going to cost you a pretty penny in DraftKings, but with all of the potentially good mid-to-low-dollar options available this weekend, it might be easier than you think to afford Harvick.

Brad Keselowski ($10,100) – If the #4 Chevrolet doesn’t lead the most laps here on Sunday, it’s probably going to be the #2 Ford. Keselowski has won two of the last four Chicagoland races and has led an average of 69 laps in each of those events. He also hasn’t finished worse than 8th at this track since the 2010 season and that’s probably not going to change this weekend. Keselowski will roll off the grid from 2nd when Sunday’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 goes green but he has a car good enough to lead; in Practice #2 on Saturday, BK was 6th on the ten-lap average chart, and he ranked 6th on that chart in Happy Hour as well. Momentum-wise this #2 team has finished 4th or better in four of the last six Sprint Cup races overall and they should make it five of the last seven here in the Windy City on Sunday.

Kyle Larson ($9,600) – “The Phenom’s” price just keeps going up in DraftKings but that’s just what happens when you’re a threat to win three races in a row. After his 2nd-place finish at Richmond last weekend, Larson has now finished 3rd or better in each of the last three races and could make it four in a row here at Chicagoland on Sunday. In two career starts at this 1.5-mile race track, Kyle has finished 3rd and 7th, and it wouldn’t surprise us at all if he finished inside that range again this weekend. The #42 Chevrolet is going to roll off the grid from 10th when the TMNT 400 goes green on Sunday but Larson should have the high line working early and make his way toward the front. After ending up fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, Kyle once again posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour (along with the 17th-best ten-lap average). He should get a decent amount of place differential FPTS in this race and if he can get up into the lead it might be hard to get past Larson…

Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Chicagoland (between $7,500 and $9,000)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,800) – If we’ve learned anything over the years it’s never go against Jimmie Johnson in Fantasy NASCAR. This #48 team has been garbage (well, for them) for most of the last four months but now that the Chase has started it seems like they’re right back to normal. During Friday’s practice session, the #48 Chevrolet was fastest on all charts, and then during Saturday’s practices Johnson was 2nd in ten-lap average during Practice #2 and was 1st on that chart in Happy Hour. He’s never won here at Chicagoland but Jimmie might have the speed to do that here on Sunday. In fourteen career starts at this track, “Six Time” only has two finishes worse than 12th and he owns a series-best average finish of 9.3. Johnson will start from 8th in Sunday’s TMNT 400 but he has top 5 finish potential in our book.

Chase Elliott ($8,500) – Due to getting into the Chase on points and qualifying getting rained out on Friday, Chase Elliott will roll off the grid from 14th for Sunday’s TMNT at Chicagoland Speedway. This gives him a little bit of room for some place differential FPTS in addition to the 30+ points he should get from his finish. Just like with his teammate, Jimmie Johnson, we expect Chase Elliott and this #24 team to kick it up a notch now that we’re in the Chase, and the most reliable tracks for picking this rookie are the cookie cutters. The #24 Chevrolet had the 8th-best ten-lap average during Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ranked 2nd on that chart in Happy Hour. If Elliott can finish the race here on Sunday, he has top 10 potential.

Kasey Kahne ($7,500) – There’s quite a few drivers in this price range that could end up being great DFS plays on Sunday, but Kasey Kahne at $7,500 has to be the best option (as far as FPTS per dollar). Kahne will start from back in 19th when the TMNT 400 goes green on Sunday but with the way the #5 team has been running lately it wouldn’t surprise us at all if they challenge for their third straight top 10 finish this weekend. It also helps that the entire Hendrick fleet looks speedy this weekend. Kasey was 6th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and wound up 8th on the Happy Hour speed chart with the 7th-best ten-lap average. Kahne has finished 13th or better in six of the last seven Chicagoland races and has topped 40 FPTS the last two weeks overall–and should be at least in the mid-30s range here on Sunday.

Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Chicagoland (under $7,500)

Ryan Blaney ($7,100) – This rookie has been boom or bust over the last few months but now that the pressure of trying to make the Chase is gone, we might see a more relaxed Ryan Blaney on race days–like the one we saw earlier this year. Las Vegas and Kansas are the two tracks most similar to Chicagoland and the #21 Ford ended up 6th and 5th in those two races this year. And if Blaney can somehow sneak into the top 10 here in the Windy City on Sunday, he’s going to be a great play in DraftKings. Ryan will start from 22nd in the TMNT 400 but he has a much better car than that; the #21 Ford was 10th-fastest during Practice #2 on Saturday morning and ranked 12th on the Happy Hour speed chart (with the 5th-best ten-lap average). He’s never made a start Chicagoland in the Sprint Cup Series but Blaney does have two top 5s to his credit in the Xfinity Series here.

Trevor Bayne ($6,800) – We’re going to be keeping an eye on Trevor Bayne over the final ten races, and for a variety of reasons. First, this #6 team might be the most improved team of 2016, as Trevor went from two top 10 finishes and an average result of 25.8 last season to already five top 10 finishes and an average result of 18.5 through the first twenty-six races of this season. Bayne once again posted solid FPTS at Richmond last weekend (34) and when you take out the Darlington race (where he had engine issues), he has a +49 place differential over the last five races. “Cookie cutter” races are where this #6 team really excel and they’ll be rolling off the grid from 20th at Chicagoland on Sunday. Trevor’s career-best finish here is 20th but he will probably change that this weekend. The #6 Ford was 19th-fastest on the Practice #2 chart on Saturday morning and ranked 21st in Happy Hour later that day.

A.J. Allmendinger ($6,400) – If you’re looking for a sleeper that quite a few people will probably overlook, The Dinger is your guy. Let’s start by looking at similar tracks: at Las Vegas earlier this year, he started 12th and finished 14th, and then at Kansas, Allmendinger wound up 8th after starting way back in 29th. Here at Chicagoland, A.J. had top 15s in all three of his first Sprint Cup starts here, but hasn’t found the top 20 since. That could easily change here on Sunday, though. The #47 Ford was 15th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and then wound up 15th on the Happy Hour speed chart as well. A.J. will start from 21st when the TMNT 400 goes green on Sunday and could end up with 35+ FPTS before it’s all said and done.

Intermediate race tracks are a major staple of the Chase playoff schedule, but it may be surprising to see how the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 race at Chicagoland plays out on Sunday considering we haven’t really been to these “cookie cutter” race tracks lately. As far as 1.5-mile venues–which Chicagoland is–the Sprint Cup Series hasn’t raced at one since Kentucky back in July. As far as historical trends at this track, it’s typically best to avoid the drivers starting up front in the Windy City, as very rarely do the top 5 qualifiers end up finishing there. However, thanks to rain at Chicagoland on Friday, qualifying was cancelled this weekend so all of the best drivers will be starting up front (the lineup was set on points standings) and that trend should end.

The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.

“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Chicagoland TMNT 400

Denny Hamlin ($9,700) – From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, there’s a couple of things to really like about Denny Hamlin this weekend. First is his momentum, as the #11 team is coming off of a win from the pole at Richmond and now has eight straight finishes of 9th or better in Sprint Cup action. Also, Hamlin has ended up inside the top 5 in four of the last five. The second thing that many people love about Denny this weekend is the fact that he’s the defending winner of this race. However, we don’t think it’s too wise to get caught up in that hype. Hamlin will roll off the grid from 3rd when the TMNT 400 goes green on Sunday, and while he could end up finishing inside the top 5 again, there are quite a few cars that have more speed than this #11 Toyota does heading into Sunday. We also don’t see Hamlin leading many laps in this race, so that really takes away any reason to take him in DraftKings.

Kyle Busch ($10,500) – You know the rule when it comes to the pole sitter: he or she is only a viable option if they can stay out front and make up that place differential FPTS gap with the other drivers. And while Kyle Busch is no stranger to leading laps here at Chicagoland–he has led 121, 46, and 67 laps in the last three races–we just don’t see that happening this weekend. Like Hamlin, we think that Kyle Busch could end up with a very good finish here on Sunday, but there are about five or six cars that look much better heading into race day. Busch did have the 3rd-fastest overall lap in Happy Hour on Saturday but his ten-lap average was just 8th-best. We could see him leading 20 or 30 laps in this year’s TMNT 400 but that’s not enough to make Kyle Busch a viable pick in DraftKings this weekend.

Chris Buescher ($7,200) – This should be a no-brainer, but for those of you who don’t follow NASCAR very close, Chris Buescher is in lower-tier equipment and the only reason he is in the playoffs is because he lucked into a win at Pocono due to a bunch of fog rolling into the track before rain ended the race early. Because of that (probably) DraftKings has been jacking up his price week after week and suddenly Buescher costs more than a lot of better drivers in better equipment. Now, Buescher has been a viable option a lot this season, but that’s only when he starts far back. Thanks to qualifying getting rained out this weekend, though, he’s going to roll off the grid from 13th on Sunday and will be lucky to score 20 FPTS. There’s no reason to even consider picking Chris Buescher in DraftKings this weekend–there’s no rain in the forecast.

“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Chicagoland TMNT 400

Alex Bowman ($7,900) – There’s a lot of “ifs” surrounding Alex Bowman this weekend. He’s in elite equipment, and could very easily be a high-scoring DraftKings driver on Sunday, if he finishes the race. He’s only made two starts in relief of Dale Earnhardt Jr. but hasn’t been able to go though a race without problems yet. However, with that kind of FPTS potential (Bowman starts back in 17th but had top 10 speed in two of the three practice sessions) and relatively low price, there’s going to be quite a few people putting him on their team this week. We won’t be one of them. There are some other low-dollar drivers that make much better options at Chicagoland (see our drivers to target here) and we’ll gladly go with them over Alex Bowman.

Tony Stewart ($8,100) – If Smoke wants to really compete for the championship in his final season, the #14 team needs to turn things around quick. They now have four straight finishes outside of the top 20 and three of the last four have been 30th or worse. As far as Chicagoland goes, Stewart is a three-time winner but he has struggled the last two years with finishes of 25th and 18th. On Sunday, Smoke will start the 2016 TMNT 400 from 11th but he might have a hard time staying up there. The #14 Chevrolet was pretty low on both ten-lap average charts on Saturday and ranked 23rd on the overall speed chart in the final Happy Hour. Stewart should be avoided this week for two main reasons: 1.) he has no momentum right now and 2.) his place differential FPTS potential is quite low.