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Las Vegas 2 NASCAR Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order (South Point 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kyle Larson leading Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott at Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2021
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

The 1.5-mile race tracks used to dominate the NASCAR schedule, but with the recent shuffling around, they’re actually kind of few and far between. This weekend the Cup Series is at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the South Point 400 on Sunday night to kick off the second round of this year’s Playoffs. We haven’t raced at a 1.5-mile track since the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte back in May, and this will be just the fourth race on the “lower wear” 1.5-milers this season. Kyle Larson won the first Vegas race this year and he’s on the pole this weekend. The question is, can anyone beat him?

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How the algorithm works: There are quite a few statistics that go into the Power Index formula, including recent performance both overall and at this week’s track specifically, similar track performance, projected strength of the car, practice speeds (when applicable), starting position, and a few other variables.

Before We Get To The Algorithm Results…Thoughts On A Couple Drivers

William Byron and Chase Elliott racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski close behind
Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images

William Byron – Willy B has significant upside this weekend despite his 10th-place ranking by the algorithm. Looking at races in the 550hp package this year, Byron has posted a podium finish in three of the nine, and would have two victories if NASCAR didn’t throw the caution for some rain in Michigan last month. Addition, Byron has the 2nd-best average running position in this package (7.2) and the 3rd-best average finish (8.1). Here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, William has struggled to finish and has just two top 10 finishes in his seven career starts. He’s finished inside the top 10 in seven of the last eight Stages, though, and has led in four of the last five events at this track.

Michael McDowell – This #34 Ford suddenly turned into a back marker car over the summer, but the South Point 400 on Sunday evening could be exactly what this team needs to get back in their “solid finish” range. This season in the 550hp package, Michael McDowell actually ranks 16th-best in average finish over the nine races (17.3) and 20th-best in average running position (19.3). Additionally, McDowell came home 17th here in the first Las Vegas race this season as well as 13th at Kansas and 20th at Charlotte. The algorithm has him ranked 28th this weekend but there’s more potential there than that.

Las Vegas South Point 400 Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order

RankDriverPower
Index
1.Larson, Kyle40.96
2.Hamlin, Denny38.52
3.Blaney, Ryan38.29
4.Busch, Kyle38.20
5.Elliott, Chase35.50
6.Truex, Jr., Martin33.19
7.Harvick, Kevin33.12
8.Keselowski, Brad30.69
9.Logano, Joey30.54
10.Byron, William30.50
11.Bowman, Alex28.40
12.Bell, Christopher25.19
13.Dillon, Austin23.22
14.Busch, Kurt22.86
15.Reddick, Tyler22.61
16.Chastain, Ross17.05
17.DiBenedetto, Matt11.79
18.Stenhouse, Jr., Ricky08.59
19.Buescher, Chris07.52
20.Almirola, Aric-08.50
21.Briscoe, Chase-11.65
22.Wallace, Bubba-15.70
23.Suarez, Daniel-17.82
24.Newman, Ryan-20.95
25.Custer, Cole-21.15
26.Jones, Erik-22.00
27.Preece, Ryan-26.67
28.McDowell, Michael-27.01
29.LaJoie, Corey-27.88
30.Alfredo, Anthony-30.91
31.Haley, Justin-31.06
32.Ware, Cody-35.08
33.McLeod, BJ-35.72
34.Smithley, Garrett-38.13
35.Houff, Quin-38.38
36.Yeley, JJ-39.50
37.Gase, Joey-40.13
38.Bilicki, Josh-42.27
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Best Bets for the NASCAR Race at Las Vegas (South Point 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Ryan Blaney in Auto Club garage with Body Armor Kobe Bryant paint scheme
Photo Credit: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images

The betting card continues to do well, and after another profitable race at Bristol last weekend (despite all of the late race shenanigans) we’re on to the gambling capital of the United States, Las Vegas, for the South Point 400 on Sunday evening. It was Kyle Larson in victory lane here in Sin City back in March, and he’s also going to be starting from the pole on Sunday night. Sportsbooks have Larson as the heavy favorite (as usual), but there’s some value in a few other drivers this weekend.

Las Vegas Betting Card for the South Point 400

#JordanJinx

Kyle Busch to Win (+1200) – Value. That’s all you can say here. We talked about this on the Stacking Dennys podcast episode this week (click here to listen). BetRivers opened up with the first odds on Monday and had Kyle Busch at 12-to-1, which was unbelievable in my eyes. For comparison, DraftKings Sportsbook opened up with Rowdy at 6-to-1. But even more important than value here is the fact that Kyle Busch can actually win this race. He won the Kansas event earlier this year, finished 3rd here in the first Vegas race, and also finished 3rd at Charlotte. If you throw in the two Atlanta races (also a 1.5-mile track but a “high wear” venue), he finished 5th and 2nd this season. Kyle Busch is significantly faster in the 550hp package, which is what the cars are running this weekend, and on the “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks, he’s finished 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 5th, and 6th over the last six races dating back to the 2020 season.

Favorite Bet of the Week

Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (-125) – DraftKings Sportsbook came out with their top 20 lines early this week, and Buescher was an immediate hammer from me–and as I noted on Twitter, the largest top 20 bet I’ve made this season. Looking at the last seven races here at Las Vegas, Buescher has a better average finish (14.7) than several “contending” drivers, including Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, and others. Over those seven races, Buescher hasn’t finished worse than 18th, and he even came home 9th here in the Playoff race last season. Looking at the 550hp package races this season, Buescher has yet to finish worse than 20th and he’s been really solid on the low wear 1.5-mile tracks specifically, with results of 14th here in the first Vegas race, 8th at Kansas, and 8th at Charlotte. As of Wednesday evening, Buescher top 20 was at -165 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I still think there’s value there and would bet it down to -175.

Rest of Jordan’s Card

Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (-106) – Unless you skipped over the paragraph above regarding the Kyle Busch to win bet, you’re not surprised that this is on the betting card as well. The Buescher top 20 bet is going to be the largest one I make this weekend, but Kyle Busch for a top 5 is a close second. I also threw some money down on Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish (+200).

Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish (+205) – Ryan Blaney popped in my algorithm this weekend, and he’s really good here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Looking at the last nine races at this track, Blaney has finished 7th or better in all but two of them, and has finished inside the top 8 in 12 of the last 16 Stages in Sin City. Blaney finished 5th here at Las Vegas in the first race this season and has ended up 6th or better in six of the nine 550hp intermediate races in 2021. Flashing back to last season’s Playoff races on the “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney ended up 7th at Vegas, 7th at Kansas, and 4th at Texas.

Ryan Blaney Top Ford (+390) – These odds really don’t make any sense, as Kevin Harvick is the favorite at +260 among the top Fords. It’s almost like books are overreacting to last week at Bristol. Either way, this is great value to bad Blaney as the top Ford on Sunday night; my algorithm has him comfortably ahead of Harvick and his teammates, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Top 20 Finish (-110) – If Ricky Stenhouse doesn’t have issues on Sunday night–yeah, that’s a pretty big IF with who we’re talking about–this bet should be very easy for him to cash. Looking at the 550hp package races this season, Stenhouse has finished 15th or better six of the nine events, but ran into major issues in the other three. Unfortunately that’s just how things go in NASCAR sometimes. Still, Stenhouse has finished 14th or better in five of the last nine Las Vegas races but is on this weird “every other race in Sin City is a bad finish” streak. If that continues on Sunday night–again, a big IF–then bettors like myself won’t be too happy, but based on speed, this is a great bet to get at -110 odds.

Austin Dillon Top 20 Finish (-250) – This top 20 opened at -170 odds, and let me tell you: I’m really kicking myself for not grabbing that on Monday evening. I completely overlooked it when making sure I got the Buescher top 20 at -125. Anyway, getting AD for a top 20 on Sunday night is still good value even though it’s now at -250 odds. I wouldn’t bet it if it goes any shorter, but Austin Dillon has been really good in the 550hp package this season, with finishes of 12th at Las Vegas, 10th at Kansas, and 6th at Charlotte. In the nine races with this package, Austin has an average finish of 14.2 and an average running position of 12.9, which is 12th-best in the series (and better than Joey Logano).

Outright Winners

  • Kyle Larson to Win (+525) – Used the Caesars 50% boost to get Larson at this number. I typically don’t like betting heavy favorites, but I don’t mind getting Larson at +525 and then having the other, longer bets alongside with it this week.
  • Ryan Blaney to Win (+1700) – Again, just great value here at 17-to-1 for a guy that my algorithm has projected to finish 3rd on Sunday night. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Team Penske has won three of the last six Las Vegas races.
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Las Vegas 2 Slingshot NASCAR Fantasy Picks (South Point 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kyle Larson racing at Watkins Glen 2021
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

VEEEGGGAASSSS!! Everyone’s favorite city, and if it isn’t, it should be. The South Point 400 is on Sunday night this weekend, as the Cup Series kicks off Round 2 of this year’s Playoffs. Kyle Larson won here in Sin City back in March and is on the pole for this weekend’s race as well. Fitting, isn it? Vegas is a 1.5-mile “low wear” track, and the other similar races to look at from earlier this season are: the first Vegas race (obviously), the Kansas race, and the Charlotte race. By the way, Kyle Larson won two of those, and should’ve won the third, too. Just saying…

*Please note: the picks and suggestions below are my opinions and strategy for the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest. These are not meant to sway your thinking in any way, but rather give you insight into the drivers I am most likely to pick on race day.*

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Jordan’s Strategy Breakdown Video

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Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest Picks for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas

The Safe

Kyle Larson ($12,500) – Often times the rule with the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest is that the pole sitter isn’t the best option to pick due to the place differential scoring, but that kind of gets thrown out the window with Kyle Larson. There’s a decent chance that this #5 Chevrolet wins both Stages, leads the most laps, and wins the race on Sunday night–like Larson did at Charlotte this year–which would still give “Yung Money” a ton of fantasy points in this game despite not getting any place differential points. At the “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, Larson won at Las Vegas, dominated Kansas but fell back late (finishing 19th), and then completely dominated and won at Charlotte.

Kyle Busch ($12,300) – Being back in the 550hp package this season has to be music to Kyle Busch’s ears because he’s so much better in this than the 750hp package. Looking at races under 550hp this year, Rowdy has zero finishes outside of the top 10 and has ended up inside the top 5 in seven of the nine. Additionally, he won at Kansas this year, finished 3rd in the first Las Vegas race, and came home 3rd at Charlotte, too. Busch starts 10th on Sunday night but can challenge for the win in this race, and should be, at minimum, a top 5 finisher. He’s a very strong fantasy pick in the Slingshot game.

Austin Dillon ($8,500) – Surprised to see Austin Dillon in this spot? Don’t be. The #3 Chevrolet has been impressive with this 550hp package this season, with finishes of 13th or better in seven of the nine races. Dillon finished 12th here at Las Vegas in March, and then came home 10th at Kansas and then 6th at Charlotte. He’ll start from 15th here in Sunday night’s South Point 400, and getting top 10 finishing upside from a driver priced under $9,000 in this Slingshot game is very solid value. Flashing back to last season, Austin Dillon finished 11th in the last two “low wear” 1.5-mile track races in the Playoffs, and you could argue that the Richard Childress Racing Chevrolets are even faster this season.

The Risky

William Byron ($11,200) – You should know by now that place differential is a huge factor in this Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest, so paying north of $11,000 for a driver starting in the first two rows is risky, but William Byron could end up paying off on Sunday night. He’s never finished better than 7th here in Sin City, but with the 550hp package this season, Byron has been one of the best; the #24 Chevrolet has the 3rd-best average finish (7.4) and 2nd-best average running position (7.2). On the “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, Willy B has came home 8th (Vegas), 9th (Kansas), and 4th (Charlotte). He should get some Stage points on Sunday night to make up for the lack of place differential potential.

Christopher Bell ($9,500) – There are plenty of eyes on the three other Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas right now, but don’t forget that Christopher Bell is still alive in these Playoffs, too. With the Slingshot Fantasy Auto Contest, a big part of putting together the top lineup for a race is finding value, and at his $9,500 and 12th-place starting spot–giving him some place differential potential–Christopher Bell could be a very valuable fantasy pick on Sunday night. Here at Las Vegas, CBell struggled in both races with Leavine Family Racing last year, but he came home 7th in the first race this season in his Gibbs car. For what it’s worth, Bell finished 3rd and 10th in the final two “low wear” 1.5-mile track races in 2020.

Chase Briscoe ($6,900) – Coming in at a nice salary of $6,900 this weekend is Chase Briscoe who is actually starting to really get things figured out in the Cup Series (relatively speaking). This #14 team had another strong run at Bristol last weekend (finishing 13th) and they now have six top 20 results in the last nine races this season. Looking at similar tracks from earlier this year, Briscoe came home 21st here at Vegas in March, 20th in the Kansas race, and then 23rd at Charlotte. He starts 19th on Sunday night, but if he can stay on the lead lap until the final restart, I could see Briscoe finishing mid-teens.

The Winner

“Race Winner” Pick = Kyle Larson – This doesn’t need an explanation…

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FanDuel NASCAR Driver Projections & Picks for Las Vegas 2 (South Point 400)

By
Jordan McAbee
-
William Byron and Chase Elliott racing for position at Richmond with Kyle Busch behind them
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

The South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway kicks off Round 2 of the Playoffs this weekend, and Kyle Larson will lead the field to the green on Sunday night. Larson is obviously coming off of a win at Bristol one week ago, and he’s also the defending winner here at Las Vegas. As far as similar tracks to look at, you’re going to want to focus on “low wear” 1.5-mile venues. This season, those races have been: the first Vegas race, the Kansas race, and the Charlotte race. The cars are running the 550hp package this weekend, so you can kind of throw a few more races into the data set if you’d like (see my DFS video on YouTube for an explanation on that).

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Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections

The optimal FanDuel lineup for Las Vegas Sunday night according to my Projections is:

  • Kyle Larson
  • William Byron
  • Kurt Busch
  • Austin Dillon
  • Chris Buescher

Confidence Rating = 6.8/10. The major weakness with this lineup comes with the potential for a surprise dominator, because three of the five drivers on there are relying on place differential and hopefully a finish inside the top 10 or top 15. If Kyle Larson leads a significant portion of this race, which is what is expected, then this lineup should be pretty solid, but if for some reason the #5 team slips a bit and doesn’t nail the setup, that makes this lineup vulnerable. One interesting note: the 3rd-highest lineup according to my projections is: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

FanDuel “Safe” DFS Picks for Las Vegas 2 (Cash Lineups)

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

Brad Keselowski ($9,700) – For some reason, Team Penske just has this place figured out. Brad Keselowski has finished 7th or better in 11 of the last 12 Las Vegas races, and in seven of those he finished on the podium (top 3). He also has three wins here over that timespan. This season, Keselowski has lost some speed as the year has gone by, but this race could be just what the doctor ordered for this #2 team. Remember, Kez ended up 2nd in the first Vegas race of 2021, and at Kansas (another “low wear” 1.5-miler, he finished 3rd. If BK can finish top 3 again here on Sunday night, he’ll be a great value in FanDuel at only $9,700 salary.

Chris Buescher ($7,000) – At only $7,000 on FanDuel, Chris Buescher is a smash value play this weekend at Las Vegas. Looking at track history here, he’s finished 18th or better in each of the last seven races in Sin City, with five of those seven finishes being inside the top 15 (as well as a 9th-place result in the Playoff race last season). When you shift over to similar races this season, Buescher ended up 14th in the first Vegas race, 8th at Kansas, and then 8th at Charlotte. He hasn’t finished worse than 20th in the 550hp package this year, and it doesn’t look like that is going to change on Sunday night.

FanDuel “Risky” DFS Picks for Las Vegas 2 (Tournament Lineups)

Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney battling at Kansas Speedway 2020
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire | Getty Images

Chase Elliott ($12,500) – Don’t let Chase Elliott’s career average finish of 20.6 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway scare you away too much, he’s actually really good at this race track, but has just had some bad luck over the years. Looking back to the first race here this season, Chase had one of the best cars early and led 22 laps out of the gate, but got some damage and his day went downhill from there. He’s now led 165 laps here at Las Vegas over the last three races at this track while winning three of the six Stages along the way. He has similar finishing upside as Kyle Busch ($13,500) this weekend and comes at a $1,000 salary discount on FanDuel.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200) – My projections like William Byron ($11,000) a little bit more here, but don’t sleep on Young Ryan Blaney. He’s never won here in Sin City, but it’s only a matter of time. Plus, as I said before, Team Penske, for some reason, just has this place figured out. Over the last nine races here in Vegas, Blaney has finished 7th or better seven times, and three of the last six have been top 5s. Looking back at last year’s “low wear” 1.5-mile data, Blaney had the best average running position (6.2) and 3rd-best average finish (7.7), and in the 550hp package this season, the #12 Ford ranks 7th-best in average running position (10.7) and 6th-best in average finish (9.6). Blaney has race-winning potential on Sunday night.

FanDuel Driver Projections for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverFanDuel SalaryAvg Proj PtsStarting PositionCeiling Proj PtsDollar Per Pt
Kyle Larson$14,50075.57183.70$192
Kyle Busch$13,50068.121078.90$198
Denny Hamlin$13,00067.13681.80$194
William Byron$11,00066.10376.10$166
Martin Truex Jr.$12,00065.65475.30$183
Chase Elliott$12,50065.451174.20$191
Ryan Blaney$10,20062.95275.00$162
Kevin Harvick$11,50060.20568.70$191
Brad Keselowski$9,70059.80866.30$162
Joey Logano$10,50059.50966.50$176
Kurt Busch$9,00059.202067.20$152
Alex Bowman$10,00058.35768.60$171
Austin Dillon$8,20056.201563.20$146
Tyler Reddick$8,50054.701363.70$155
Chris Buescher$7,00054.602563.70$128
Christopher Bell$9,50051.451263.20$185
Matt DiBenedetto$8,00051.451459.70$155
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.$6,70050.852254.70$132
Ross Chastain$7,70050.351864.70$153
Daniel Suarez$6,50050.102656.70$130
Ryan Newman$5,50047.902958.20$115
Bubba Wallace$6,20047.352155.70$131
Michael McDowell$5,00046.252353.70$108
Chase Briscoe$7,20045.851956.20$157
Cole Custer$5,70045.152854.70$126
Aric Almirola$7,50043.001753.70$174
Ryan Preece$4,50042.652446.70$106
Erik Jones$6,00042.501650.20$141
Anthony Alfredo$4,00042.303246.20$95
Corey LaJoie$4,50039.802748.20$113
Justin Haley$3,50038.453340.70$91
B.J. McLeod$2,50035.353436.70$71
Cody Ware$2,50034.103537.20$73
Quin Houff$3,00033.003639.20$91
J.J. Yeley$2,00032.253835.70$62
Garrett Smithley$2,00031.353034.70$64
Joey Gase$2,00030.653735.20$65
Josh Bilicki$3,00029.503135.20$102
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Vegas, Baby! NASCAR Playoffs Round 2 Start in Sin City – Stacking Dennys Podcast

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick arguing on pit road after Bristol 2021 night race
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

After a crazy race at Bristol last weekend, Jordan McAbee and Nick Giffen (a.k.a. “RotoDoc”) set their sights on the upcoming South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday night. Topics discussed in this week’s episode include:

  • 0:30 – Bristol recap
  • 2:10 – Backmarker cars are the worst
  • 12:15 – Was Chase Elliott wrong or right for what he did to Kevin Harvick at Bristol?
  • 24:30 – Round 2 Playoffs – In or Out Predictions
  • 42:00 – Betting value for Championship Outrights
  • 1:00:00 – Las Vegas South Point 400 Preview

You can listen below by using that embedded player or listen on:

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