Loudon is a short, flat, 1-mile race track, and it’s not uncommon for the races here to come down to fuel mileage. We don’t know what it is with the summer but it seems like this middle part of the Sprint Cup schedule sees more fuel mileage races than the other parts. Anyway, track position is going to be an important factor in the New Hampshire 301 on Sunday, but it’s noteworthy to consider that only one of the last seven races here have been won from a top 5 starting spot. As usual, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas look great this weekend and should all be challenging for the win on Sunday.

Our team got a little lucky last weekend by sticking with Brad Keselowski at Kentucky. We scored 304 total points in race #18 and we are now sitting in the 66th percentile at the halfway point of the season. That might not seem that good, but don’t forget that this is a marathon, not a sprint. We’re happy with where we are at this point in time.

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Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Loudon

We honestly expected more out of our two A Group drivers this weekend. We rostered Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick for this week’s race at Loudon, and while both have solid top 10 cars with top 5 potential, we were hoping to have the potential race dominator on our roster. That just isn’t the case. On the speed charts both the #2 Ford and the #4 Chevrolet were pretty even throughout the two practice sessions on Saturday, but Keselowski ran about 2/3rds the amount of laps as Harvick, and that tells us that he might be struggling with his race car this weekend. Because of that, we’re probably going to start Kevin Harvick here on Sunday, in part because he has had one of the best cars here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway over the last two years. The #4 Chevrolet also had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour and, as long as this race doesn’t come down to fuel mileage, should be a contender for the win. Harvick qualified 8th for Sunday’s race while Keselowski qualified 9th.

Pole sitter Jimmie Johnson might be an attractive option due to his starting spot, but we’re not convinced that this #48 team is back to “normal.” There’s a big difference between putting one fast lap down here at Loudon and having a good car over the course of a run. Kyle Busch is on the outside pole for this weekend’s race and he should be one of the drivers that has a chance to lead the most laps on Sunday. He will be a contender to win. Denny Hamlin looks fast and is a two-time winner at this track, but his unreliability this season is a concern. Joey Logano mentioned on Saturday that he’s a top 5 car at best this weekend, which probably means top 10–which is where he and Kurt Busch both have the ability to finish.

Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Matt Kenseth, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Kurt Busch

Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Loudon

Despite his 13th-place starting spot, Carl Edwards has one of the best cars in the field this weekend and we honestly believe that the #19 Toyota will be a legitimate contender for the win on Sunday. The garage was pointing toward Carl as the car to beat during Saturday morning’s practice session, and the #19 team only solidified that distinction by having a great Happy Hour practice as well. Edwards should be at least a top 5 threat here on Sunday, which is where he finished in the fall race here at Loudon last year–his first top 5 here since the 2008 year. Just something about those Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas at this track…

Now we have to choose our second B Group driver and that is between Ryan Newman, Kyle Larson, and Greg Biffle. They start 25th, 17th, and 28th, respectively. We would love to get a Greg Biffle start here, and by the end of the weekend we think he could surprise some people and finish top 15, but that’s just way too risky. Ryan Newman is another driver that should finish way better than where he starts, but the speed just wasn’t there on Saturday for us to start him. He’s a pretty safe option here at Loudon, but we’re going to go for maximum points with what we got so we’re going to start Kyle Larson and Carl Edwards this weekend. Larson didn’t have blazing speed during Saturday’s practice sessions but he was consistent, ranking 10th and 11th on the speed charts (and 10th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour).

Looking at the other B Group drivers, we don’t have Martin Truex, Jr. on our roster, but we wouldn’t start him this weekend even if we did. Yeah, he starts up front, but that #78 team did nothing to show that speed in race trim on Saturday. The fact that Truex didn’t make a long run in Happy Hour is concerning. We have him pegged as an 8th to 12th-place car on Sunday and that’s not worth the start, in our opinion. Kasey Kahne has shown pretty good speed this weekend and should come home with a top 15 finish. If you have him, start him. Tony Stewart kind of disappointed on Saturday, as did Austin Dillon. We have both of their ceilings around 15th. The latter did have the 9th-best lap in Happy Hour, though. Jamie McMurray is another top 15 threat, but he starts kind of far back in 19th. He’s not top 10 worthy but definitely mid-teens. Other than that, we don’t see any other B Group driver as a viable option on Sunday. A.J. Allmendinger is an excellent sleeper pick but probably the riskiest driver in the field. He starts 10th and was 14th-fastest in Happy Hour.

Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr. (3) Kyle Larson, (4) Kasey Kahne, (5) Tony Stewart, (6) Jamie McMurray, (7) Ryan Newman, (8) Austin Dillon, (9) A.J. Allmendinger, (10) Greg Biffle, (11) Paul Menard, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (13) Casey Mears, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Danica Patrick

Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Loudon

Our original start save pick this weekend was David Ragan, and we still stand behind that pick. However, with the news breaking that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. wasn’t going to race this weekend’s New Hampshire 301, we had to jump on that opportunity. Alex Bowman will take over in the #88 Chevrolet on Sunday, and he’s going to be our starter for week #19 as well. We’re not expecting a great run out of him this weekend, but as long as Bowman can finish the race, we will be happy. He qualified 20th for this weekend’s race, and while Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney both have top 10 potential here at Loudon, we just can’t pass up this opportunity to save their starts. If you have David Ragan on your roster along with Elliott or Blaney, we would still recommend starting Ragan simply because that team is probably at their best on the shorter tracks and he starts 23rd this weekend. Also, on a side note, Matt DiBenedetto qualified 16th this weekend and would be another good start save option. His only good run this season came at another short track, Bristol, where he finished inside the top 10. We don’t see that happening again but anything can happen…

Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Alex Bowman, (4) David Ragan, (5) Matt DiBenedetto, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Michael McDowell, (8) Regan Smith, (9) Brian Scott, the rest

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[This post has been updated at 5:45 pm on 07/14/16 after news broke that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won’t be racing this weekend.]

The second half of the 2016 Sprint Cup season kicks off this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, although we typically refer to this race as “Loudon.” Just letting you know so there’s no confusion moving forward. This is a short 1-mile race track with very little banking. The corners have progressive banking between 2- and 7-degrees but there’s just one degree of banking on the straightaways. Since this is a short track, pit crews are going to be very important on Sunday, as one mistake can ruin a team’s day and put the car multiple laps down. We’ve also seen the races here come down to fuel mileage before, so keep that in mind.

Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Loudon

Brad Keselowski (7 starts remaining) – We lucked out last week by sticking to our guns and keeping Brad Keselowski on our roster at Kentucky, and we actually started him, too. This weekend, though, there’s no doubt that the Blue Deuce is going to be on our Yahoo! team. Not only is this team on absolute fire right now–five top 5s in the last six races, including two wins–but Keselowski has also been the best finisher here at Loudon over the last couple of years, especially in the summer races; over the last two July events at this track, Brad has finished 2nd and 1st and led a total of 238 laps. He hasn’t finished worse than 12th here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway since the 2011 season and that shouldn’t change on Sunday either. His career average finish of 10.4 here is 2nd-best among all active drivers, right behind Denny Hamlin’s 10.3. It would surprise us one bit if this #2 team picked up their third win in a row this weekend, and that would be Keselowski’s second career victory at this track.

Kevin Harvick (6 starts remaining) – There’s quite a few great options in the A Group this weekend, but we’re going to go with the driver that has had a dominant car here at Loudon lately. In this race one year ago, Harvick led 59 laps en route to a 3rd-place finish, and that followed up another 3rd-place finish in the 2014 fall race here, an event where the #4 Chevrolet led for over one-third of the race. In last year’s fall event, Harvick led a race-high 216 laps but ended up finishing 21st thanks to running out of fuel. As we saw at Kentucky last weekend, this #4 team isn’t the greatest at playing the fuel mileage game, so as long as this weekend’s New Hampshire 301 doesn’t come down to that, the #4 Chevrolet should be up front. Harvick has just one victory here at Loudon and that was way back in 2006.

As far as the other A Group drivers go, the Gibbs cars should all be solid on Sunday. Kyle Busch has four finishes of 1st or 2nd in the last four Loudon races, but that #18 team hasn’t posted a top 5 since early May. Matt Kenseth has been great at Loudon since joining JGR, posting two wins and five top 10s over the last six races. Denny Hamlin is a two-time winner here and should be solidly inside the top 10 on Sunday. Like Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson is in the middle of a drought, to the tune of zero top 10s since April. He has finished 7th or better in five of the last eight Loudon races, though. Kurt Busch finished 10th in this race one year ago but that’s one of only two top 10s in the his last eleven starts here. You can give him a break this weekend. Joey Logano has three straight top 5s at this track.

IMPORTANT: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. isn’t racing this week due to concussion symptoms. Don’t pick him.

Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Brad Keselowski, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Matt Kenseth, (4) Kyle Busch, (5) Joey Logano, (6) Denny Hamlin, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Kurt Busch, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Loudon

Carl Edwards (7 starts remaining) – As mentioned before, the entire Joe Gibbs Racing fleet should be solid here at Loudon this weekend. Edwards has sat on the pole for the last two races at this track and led 19 laps in each of those events (hey, gotta love consistency) while ending up 7th and 5th when the checkered flag flew. He only had a couple of really good runs here before moving over to JGR, but, like Kenseth, Carl Edwards’ Loudon fantasy value really increased once that move occurred. This #19 team is coming off of that 2nd-place finish at Kentucky last Saturday night and Edwards has finished 8th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races. Unless you’re running low on starts with him (4 or less), we think you have to put Carl on your Yahoo! team this weekend.

Ryan Newman (6 starts remaining) – “The Rocketman” is a consistent performer at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and is coming off of his first top 5 finish of the season at Kentucky last Saturday night. Newman has also now finished 12th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races, with the only exception being Daytona. As far as his record here at Loudon, Ryan owns a career average finish of 13.5 in twenty-eight career starts here and has visited victory lane three times (the most recent win being in 2011). He finished 11th and 10th in the two races here last season and that’s exactly what we’re expecting out of Newman this time around as well–a solid top 12 run. He has finished 11th or better in nine of the last thirteen races ran here at Loudon.

Kyle Larson (5 starts remaining) – This #42 Chevrolet has had a bunch of speed in it lately and it’s only a matter of time before the old “when is Kyle Larson going to win?” question starts popping back up. Could it be this weekend? Larson came home 3rd in his first ever Cup start here at Loudon back in 2014, and then he followed that up with a runner-up finish in the fall. He ended up 31st and 17th in the two races here last season, but we’ll give him a pass for those considering the 2015 year was full of bad luck and misfortunes for this #42 team. As long as Larson and his team can put a whole race together this Sunday–which is nowhere near a guarantee–he should be a legitimate top 10 threat (or better) in the New Hampshire 301 this weekend.

Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – Jamie McMurray as our fourth B Group driver is taking the safer route this weekend, but there are plenty of other options available if you don’t want to use Jamie Mac–of which we will talk about below. Looking at McMurray, though, his career average finish of 20.5 here at Loudon isn’t anything impressive, but over the last six races at this track, he has put up two top 5 finishes and only one result worse than 16th. Jamie is one driver that we may replace before the final lockdown on Friday morning, but as of now he is on our roster for Loudon.

EDIT: We’re switching Jamie McMurray for Greg Biffle.

Martin Truex, Jr. is a very solid racer here at Loudon but we’re down to 4 starts left with him and he hasn’t had a top 5 here since 2008. We’d really only like to use him when he can potentially win or at least finish top 5 from here on our. Austin Dillon is another potential top 10 threat out of the B Group. He finished 8th in this race last season and has ran pretty well on the shorter tracks this season. One guy you may not think about this week is Greg Biffle. He now has an average finish of 14.7 over the last six Sprint Cup races overall, and over the last six races here at Loudon his average finish is 13.3. His ceiling is around the top 15 this week, but if you’re looking for a start save option, he’s not a terrible choice. We expect Tony Stewart to have solid top 15 potential this weekend, and you have to keep an eye out for A.J. Allmendinger as a sleeper–he’s finished 13th in two of the last three Loudon races and don’t forget that he almost won at Martinsville earlier this year, another short track.

Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Austin Dillon, (6) Tony Stewart, (7) Jamie McMurray, (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Greg Biffle, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears

Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Loudon

In order to play the start save game with the C Group in Yahoo! this week, you’re going to need some luck, like back at Bristol when Matt DiBenetto finished 6th. The good news is that short tracks are an excellent time to start save, but it’s really one of those hope and pray situations for whatever driver you decide to go with. Our strategy is usually to put either Ryan Blaney or Chase Elliott on our roster and pair them with one of the other C Group drivers. This weekend, we’re going to go with Ryan Blaney (7 starts remaining), who finished 23rd in his first start here at Loudon last season. And to pair with him, we’re going with David Ragan (8 starts remaining), who ran 18th in this event one year ago, albeit in the #55 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing. However, looking at the shorter, flatter tracks we’ve ran at this season, Ragan came home 24th at Phoenix, 21st at Martinsville, 23rd at Richmond, and 17th at Dover. Definitely not stellar results, but decent for a guy like Ragan. He also has four finishes of 23rd or better in the last four Sprint Cup races after that 22nd-place finish at Kentucky last Saturday night.

EDIT: Alex Bowman will be driving Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s #88 Chevrolet this weekend. His best finish here is 28th, but with that kind of equipment it’s hard to keep a start save option like that off of our team. We are replacing David Ragan with Alex Bowman.

Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) David Ragan, (4) Alex Bowman, (5) Landon Cassill, (6) Chris Buescher, (7) Brian Scott, (8) Regan Smith, (9) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest

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For the third week in a row, it’s hard to guarantee what we’re going to see on race day. This weekend the Sprint Cup Series travels to Kentucky Speedway for the Quaker State 400. We visit this track once a year but have only been doing so since 2011–giving us just give years of race data. On top of that, Kentucky was totally re-paved and re-configured since the last time we were here, and it’s almost an entirely different race track. Of the tracks the Cup teams have ran at so far this year, we think Kansas is the closest to this “new” Kentucky.

There’s one practice scheduled for Thursday and then two on Friday followed by qualifying. The Quaker State 400 is on Saturday night. We will update these rankings on Thursday evening. [They have been updated.]

Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Kentucky

Kyle Busch (6 starts remaining) – Let’s be honest, if there’s one driver that can come into a “brand new” race track and win the first race, it’s Kyle Busch. And just in case we’re wrong and this track isn’t drastically different after the re-pave and re-configuration, Kyle Busch’s Sprint Cup record at Kentucky Speedway speaks for itself: in the five races ran here, Rowdy collected two wins, never finished worse than 10th, and had an average finish of 3.8. Yeah, pretty good in our book. Looking back at the Kansas race in early May, the #18 Toyota led 69 of the 267 laps that day en route to victory lane, and Kyle Busch has been one of the best drivers on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season with an average finish of 8.4 (see full chart here). After posting four straight finishes of 30th or worse, Kyle Busch now has back-to-back top 10s after his 7th-place run at Sonoma and 2nd-place finish at Daytona–meaning this team is starting to build back some momentum.

Brad Keselowski (8 starts remaining) – There’s not many safer pick thans Brad Keselowski this weekend. He’s coming off of a dominating win at Daytona last weekend and now has five finishes of 6th or better in the last six Sprint Cup races. The only exception during that span was Keselowski’s 15th-place finish at Sonoma, and that wasn’t all that surprising because he has historically struggled there his whole career. In the Kansas race earlier this year, BK came home 10th after starting 5th and leading three laps. If we’re looking at past Kentucky races, Brad also has two wins like Kyle Busch and has led 408 total laps in the five races ran here. Both Penske teams are finally running where they should be and we expect both Keselowski and teammate Joey Logano to contend here on Saturday night.

EDIT AFTER PRACTICE: Kyle Busch looks very fast this weekend so we’re sticking with him, and although Keselowski wasn’t as fast as we would have liked, we’re still going to stick with the Blue Deuce for Kentucky. Denny Hamlin was 4th-fastest on Thursday but we think that was a fools gold lap.

Kevin Harvick is always a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick on these intermediate race tracks, but he hasn’t won on one this year (surprisingly). He finished 2nd at Kansas. His teammate, Kurt Busch, ended up 3rd in that Kansas race and has been the most reliable top 10 finisher this season–unless Joey Logano dumps him on the last lap. One A Group driver that is definitely worth considering–and still may make our roster–is Matt Kenseth. He’s never finished worse than 7th at Kentucky and won here in 2013. He wound up 4th in the Kansas race earlier this year.

Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Kyle Busch, (2) Kevin Harvick, (3) Matt Kenseth, (4) Brad Keselowski, (5) Kurt Busch, (6) Jimmie Johnson, (7) Joey Logano, (8) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (9) Denny Hamlin

Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Kentucky

Carl Edwards (7 starts remaining) – Our plan heading into the weekend is to bring out the big guns, and in the B Group that starts with Carl Edwards. Last year, in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing, Cousin Carl finished 4th in the Kentucky race (after starting 20th), which is one of two top 5 finishes he has in his five starts here. This season on the 1.5-mile race tracks, the #19 Toyota hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been terrible either. Edwards has an 11.8 average finish of this track type in 2016, and that includes his 11th-place run at Kansas (see full chart here). We’re glad to have 7 starts left with Carl Edwards, but it’s almost time to start using them. If we think he can win Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 after practice on Thursday, he’s going to make our final roster.

Martin Truex, Jr. (5 starts remaining) – It’s been hard to trust Martin Truex, Jr. this season but he owns an average finish of 7.8 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season (see full chart here) and probably had the best car at Kansas, where he led 172 of the 267 laps but finished 14th thanks to his pit crew. Here at Kentucky, Truex hasn’t had any great runs, but he did post top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013 while still with Michael Waltrip Racing. As we’ve seen at many tracks this year, the alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing should boost Truex’s performance here at Kentucky on Saturday night, but he’s nowhere near a lock. Martin could be a late scratch from our roster. Don’t forget that this #78 team has six finishes outside of the top 10 in the last nine Sprint Cup races overall.

Kyle Larson (5 starts remaining) – If anyone is happy that Kentucky was re-paved and re-configured, it has to be Kyle Larson. In his two career Sprint Cup starts at this track, he has finished 40th and 35th. However, Kyle started 6th and 1st in those two races, so it’s not like he’s just terrible here. Looking back at the Kansas race, the #42 Chevrolet was fast in that race but Larson got caught up in a wreck and ended up finishing 35th. He looked to have top 10 potential before that. The good finishes are coming for this team, and that’s the time to use Larson as he is a streaky driver; Kyle hasn’t finished worse than 13th in the last six Sprint Cup races overall and owns the 3rd-best average finish (7.8) over that span, right behind Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.

Austin Dillon (5 starts remaining) – As expected, Austin Dillon came home with a solid top 10 finish at Daytona last weekend, and that gives this #3 team two results inside that mark over the last three Sprint Cup races–the other being Michigan. And that’s exactly what this team needs: good runs to try and build some momentum and confidence. Dillon’s performance has really dropped off from where it was back in March and April, but these intermediate race tracks have been his strength this season and that should show once again on Saturday night. Austin came home 6th in this year’s Kansas race.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a nice sleeper option and start save pick this weekend. That #17 team has an average finish of 13.2 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and Ricky came home 11th in the Kentucky race last season. Another driver to look at is Stenhouse’s Roush-Fenway teammate Trevor Bayne. He came home 13th here at Kentucky last season, and while that doesn’t really matter, that #6 team has been running really well lately–seven finishes of 17th or better in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Also another sleeper would be A.J. Allmendinger, who finished 8th at Kentucky and has an average finish of 17.4 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this year.

EDIT AFTER PRACTICE: Carl Edwards ran a bunch of laps in Practice #1 and that’s usually not a good sign for the competition. He’s a lock. Truex also put up a good lap on Thursday so he is making our roster, as is Austin Dillon. Kyle Larson remains the next best option but we’re switching him out for Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.–a pure strategy move as we are down to 5 starts with Larson and have 7 left with Stenhouse. 

Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Austin Dillon, (4) Kyle Larson, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Tony Stewart, (9) Paul Menard, (10) A.J. Allmendinger, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Jamie McMurray, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Clint Bowyer, (16) Danica Patrick, (17) Casey Mears

Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Kentucky

Our strategy with these C Group drivers this season has been to save Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney for the bigger intermediate race tracks and try and fill in the gaps at the other venues with some other picks. Sometimes this works out (David Ragan finishing 17th at Dover) and sometimes it doesn’t (Landon Cassill winding up 31st at Daytona last week) but that’s just how it is. We’re sticking to this strategy this weekend and will have Elliott and Blaney as our two C Group drivers barring some kind of crazy practice session on Thursday. Back at the Kansas race, both of these rookies finished inside the top 10, and Chase has an average finish of 13.6 on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season (see full chart here). We don’t see any other C Group driver finishing inside the top 20 here on Saturday night unless the race turns into a wreck-fest.

EDIT AFTER PRACTICE: We’re switching Ryan Blaney to Ty Dillon as a start save option.

Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Brian Scott, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Regan Smith, (7) David Ragan, (8) Landon Cassill, (9) Matt DiBenedetto, the rest

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