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FOX Fantasy NASCAR Picks for Daytona 2

Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images

This week it’s all about place differential points in the FOX Fantasy Auto game, which means there’s really no reason to even consider the drivers that qualified inside the top 10 for Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400…well, except for maybe Denny Hamlin. The races at these big restrictor plate tracks are so unpredictable that it’s not really possible to lean on a driver for a bunch of finish points, like we can at other race tracks. Literally any driver could be on the table as a possible Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend, and that means there are plenty of possible roster combinations that you could put together. Our philosophy at Daytona has always been to set a roster and enjoy the race, and that’s exactly what we’re doing this week.

Clint Bowyer’s in-car fire really ruined our FOX Sonoma roster, but we still left wine country with a somewhat-decent 133 points. We wrapped up the Spring Segment with 2,804 points and in 1,179th place overall (3rd in our private league). The Summer Segment starts this weekend with the Coke Zero 400.

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FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Daytona 2 Coke Zero 400

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

Kevin Harvick ($14,200) – Another week and it’s another big price to pay for Kevin Harvick, but with this guy putting up the point totals he does in this game, the pricing kind of makes sense. Once again this #4 team wasn’t stellar in qualifying and Harvick will roll off the grid from 21st when we go green Saturday night. For what it’s worth, he started 34th in this race one year ago and ended up finishing 4th. That race is part of Harvick’s three-race streak of top 5 finishes here at Daytona, and with the way his crew chief, Rodney Childers, was talking on Twitter, they very well make it four in a row this weekend. With thirteen top 10 finishes in the first sixteen Sprint Cup races this season, Harvick is about as reliable as they come from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, and should be one of the top FOX Fantasy Auto point-earners in this year’s Coke Zero 400. As of this post, just about 25% of the teams had Harvick on their roster, and we expect that to continue to rise as we get closer to rosters locking.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($11,500) – Even before qualifying was overwith, almost 2/3rds of the FOX Fantasy Auto game had Dale Earnhardt, Jr. on their team. We expect that number to get even higher before the race on Saturday night thanks to Junior’s 16th-place qualifying effort. This isn’t a pick that we’re overly fond of because we’re actually not taking the #88 on many teams this week on purpose. So many Fantasy NASCAR players are going to pick Junior at Daytona, and if he wrecks again–he has in both plate races ran thus far in 2016–that opens the door to make up some major ground on the competition. However, our FOX Fantasy Auto team is doing pretty well this year, so we’re just going to go with the crowd with this one. Junior is a four-time winner here at Daytona and starts 16th on Saturday night, meaning there’s definitely room for some place differential points. If you’re looking for an alternative pick here, Joey Logano would be a solid choice as well as Chase Elliott–and both would give you a little more cap room to work with as well.

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

Denny Hamlin ($8,700) – We’re going for place differential points this weekend, but seriously, Denny Hamlin at $8,700? You can’t pass that up. The #11 Toyota will roll off the grid from 9th once the Coke Zero 400 gets going and should be a contender for the win when the checkered flag flies. There’s no such thing as a “sure” Fantasy NASCAR pick at Daytona, but Hamlin has been about as close as you can get over the last five races. During that span, he’s never finished worse than 6th, and he finally capped it off with a win here in this season’s Daytona 500. Hamlin’s crew chief thinks that they have a car similar to that Daytona 500 car this weekend, and if it’s anything close to that, Denny will definitely have a shot at a top 5 finish on Saturday night. He starts 9th, which leaves a little room for place differential points.

Regan Smith ($5,200) – Why not? Smith is going to start dead last for Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400 but that’s because he never made a lap during qualifying. And if we’re going for place differential points, he is honestly a great option. A lot of people have their eyes on Regan Smith this weekend as a potential sleeper, and for good reason: over his last three starts at Daytona, Smith has finished 8th, 16th, and 7th. A finish anywhere near those three would be great for our FOX Fantasy Auto team this weekend. If you want to have a safer driver on your team in this spot, jump up and grab Tony Stewart or Danica Patrick, but we’re daring to be different–and as of this post less than 1% of FOX teams have Regan Smith picked.

Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Jamie McMurray ($9,400) – Here’s another guy that isn’t on very many rosters. As of this post, only 6.5% of FOX teams had Jamie McMurray on them, but he has plenty of upside this weekend at Daytona–even at that pricey point of $9,400. Essentially we’re trying to catch lightning in a bottle twice with Jamie Mac, as he was on our FOX roster back at Talladega, when he started 30th and finished 4th. In Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400, McMurray is going to roll off the grid from 29th. Jamie is definitely a capable restrictor plate racer and is a two-time winner here at Daytona International Speedway. He finished 15th in this race one year ago and has ended up 17th or better in four of the last six races at this track. Another driver you could put in this spot is Paul Menard–who starts a row ahead of McMurray in 27th–or Chase Elliott, who starts 24th and still might make our team.

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Daytona 2 Final Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Rankings and Picks

Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Due to rain at the track on Friday, the two scheduled practice sessions for the weekend were cancelled, which left us setting our Yahoo! rosters before any of the cars even got on track. If that’s going to happen at any race track, though, the best option would be Daytona (or Talladega). Honestly, practice speeds don’t mean a whole lot at the restrictor plate venues, and neither does starting position. Our strategy at these big superspeedways has always been to set your roster and hope for the best, then get back to the “real” Fantasy NASCAR next week. Enjoy the 4th of July weekend and GOOD LUCK at Daytona.

Last week at Sonoma, we avoided the Clint Bowyer last-place finish and walked away with 302 points. That bumped our Fantasy Racing Online Yahoo! team up to the 55th percentile overall. It’s been a rough Fantasy NASCAR year so far but it’s getting better.

Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Daytona 2

Photo Credit: Sarah Crabill/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sarah Crabill/NASCAR via Getty Images

Denny Hamlin was our pick in the A Group all weekend long and we’re not changing now. Like we said in our Preview, the only reason we had Matt Kenseth on our team this week was for potential qualifying points, which didn’t happen. Looking at the last five points-paying races at Daytona, Denny Hamlin has finished 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 2nd. There hasn’t been a more consistent finisher than him over that span, and while that streak is going to come to an end sometime, we believe you have to keep picking him here at Daytona until it does. Apparently the masses don’t agree with us, though, because Hamlin is only on 19.7% of Yahoo! rosters this week. We’re really not sure why so many decided against the #11 Toyota for Daytona 2, but we’ll gladly take this opportunity to have our A Group driver be one of the lesser-picked in the game. We’re starting Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin in Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400.

Kyle Busch starts 3rd on Saturday night and should be able to grab those 10 points for leading a lap. It might be worth starting him if you have him, assuming you have 7 starts or more left. We’re not sold that the #88 Chevrolet is that great of a handling car on the plate tracks this year, and for that reason we’re staying away from Earnhardt, Jr. in a lot of leagues. Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch should both be solidly inside the top 10, as should Joey Logano.

Final A Group Rankings: (1) Denny Hamlin, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (5) Joey Logano, (6) Kurt Busch, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Brad Keselowski

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Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Daytona 2

Greg Biffle at Las Vegas
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/NASCAR via Getty Images

The Roush-Fenway Fords of Greg Biffle (pole) and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (4th) had great qualifying runs on Friday, and if you have either (or both) of those guys on your roster, you may as well start them. Neither Biffle or Stenhouse like to stay up front for the whole race, but you can’t pass up those (probable) 10 bonus points for leading from The Biff, and Stenhouse might be able to get up there as well. Austin Dillon qualified 6th and is a solid top 10 threat every time we come to Daytona. Since joining the Sprint Cup Series full time he has never finished worse than 14th here.

Carl Edwards starts on the outside pole for the Coke Zero 400 and we all know how strong those Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have been on the restrictor plate tracks this season. We fully expect him to be a legitimate threat all race long. Tony Stewart qualified 19th this week after that awesome win at Sonoma, but you have to wonder how much he is going to push it on race day–especially at a track like Daytona. Essentially Smoke is now points racing to get in the top 30 on points to make The Chase.

As far as our B Group drivers this weekend, we have to choose between Trevor Bayne, Aric Almirola, Kasey Kahne, and Jamie McMurray. They start 13th, 14th, 18th, and 29th, respectively. That qualifying effort by Jamie McMurray has already taken him off the list in our eyes. Yeah, where you start doesn’t mean a whole lot here at Daytona, but it does have a little merit. Also, Kasey Kahne has had some good runs here in his career, but hasn’t had a good July Daytona race since the 2012 season.

Photo Credit: Rainier Ehrhardt/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Rainier Ehrhardt/NASCAR via Getty Images

So that means we’re going with Trevor Bayne and Aric Almirola as our two B Group drivers for the Coke Zero 400. Bayne and that #6 team has shown some major improvement this season and has finished 17th or better in seven of the last ten Sprint Cup races. He’s won here at Daytona before and finished 9th in last year’s July race, and the #6 Ford came home 10th at Talladega back in May. Additionally, all three Roush-Fenway Fords showed good speed in qualifying this weekend, which is a good sign for Saturday night. As far as Aric Almirola goes, he won this race back in 2014 and has finished 15th or better in three of his last four Daytona starts. This is the week to take some abnormal Fantasy NASCAR picks, and that’s exactly what we’re doing–while start saving as well.

Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Austin Dillon, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Greg Biffle, (5) Kasey Kahne, (6) Ryan Newman, (7) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (8) Trevor Bayne, (9) Tony Stewart, (10) Kyle Larson, (11) Aric Almirola, (12) Jamie McMurray, (13) Paul Menard, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) A.J. Allmendinger, (16) Casey Mears, (17) Clint Bowyer

Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Daytona 2

Photo Credit: NASCAR Media
Photo Credit: NASCAR Media

Our strategy in the C Group this weekend was pretty much the exact same as our strategy in the A Group: one driver to start, one driver for potential qualifying points. Those two were Landon Cassill and Chase Elliott, respectively. We honestly see no reason to start Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney in Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400. Yes, they’re the best picks in the C Group this weekend, but their starts are much too valuable in the rest of the races coming up in 2016. It’s not uncommon for one or two C Group drivers to finish inside the top 15 at Daytona and Talladega, and while that would be awesome to get out of Landon Cassill on Saturday night, we just want him to finish the race. If that happens, we’ll be happy. Cassill finished 23rd in this year’s Daytona 500 and came home 11th at Talladega. He starts 34th on Saturday night.

A lot of people are drooling over Regan Smith this weekend because his last three finishes at Daytona have been 8th, 16th, and 7th. Only one of those races was he in a less-than-mediocre car, though. He’s going to be starting the Coke Zero 400 from dead last, so he’s worth a plan in leagues that award points based on place differential (and Yahoo! if he’s your only option). Chris Buescher qualified best (25th) of the C Group drivers not named Elliott or Blaney but his two restrictor plate finishes this year have been 39th and 37th. David Gilliland is probably the best C Group “start save” pick this weekend, as he qualified 28th and finished 17th in his only other start this season at Talladega, but you have to question his equipment.

Final C Group Rankings: (1) Ryan Blaney, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) David Gilliland, (4) Landon Cassill, (5) David Ragan, (6) Brian Scott, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Chris Buescher, (9) Michael McDowell, the rest

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DraftKings NASCAR Drivers to Avoid for Daytona 2

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Oh, good ‘ol Daytona. If you’re new to NASCAR, Saturday night’s race is going to be one that is very action-packed from a viewer perspective, but frustrating from a player’s perspective. With most race weekends, there are only a handful of drivers that have a legitimate shot to win the race, and you could throw in a couple more if it turns into a fuel mileage event or some other strategic ending. But with the races at Daytona and Talladega, literally anyone in the field can win: it’s all about timing and being in the right place at the right time. On the other hand, one wreck can take out your entire DraftKings team, just like that. In other words, you could make a case for putting pretty much any driver on your team this weekend. However, we’re here to tell you which ones you should probably avoid on Saturday night.

DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona

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Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Tony Stewart ($8,300) – Tony Stewart used to be the king of the summer, and there were many people that brought that up when he broke through to victory lane at Sonoma last weekend. But now Smoke has a totally different agenda during the second half of the season: making it into the top 30 in points so that he is eligible to claim that Chase spot. So, it really makes you wonder just how aggressive he’s going to be here at Daytona on Saturday night. Tony is already one of those drivers that likes to hang out at the back of the pack for most of the race, but that strategy really only works out if there is a big wreck and they can avoid it. Smoke finished 14th in this race one year ago but in his previous three starts at Daytona he never ended up better than 35th. He’ll start from 19th in this year’s Coke Zero 400–so there’s room for place differential points–but we just don’t see Stewart being too aggressive this weekend and we want drivers on our team that are going to be going for the win. Plus, that $8,300 price tag is pretty high for a guy like Smoke this week.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,500) – Martin Truex, Jr. almost won this year’s Daytona 500, and now he’s on the “avoid” list for Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400. How does that saying go…even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while? We like Truex and think he’s a good racer, but we’re not sold on him as a plate racer yet. That 2nd-place finish in this year’s “Great American Race” was his first top 5 of his career here at Daytona and only his third top 10 (in twenty-two career starts). But that’s not the main reason we’re saying avoid the #78 Toyota on Saturday night. Reason #1 to avoid Truex? He’s going to be a popular pick. Try and capitalize on that. He’s nowhere near a reliable Fantasy NASCAR pick, especially here at Daytona. And that brings us to reason #2: this team has under-performed all season long–with the exception of the two biggest races, the Daytona 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. Truex only has three top 5s and seven top 10s in 2016 thus far, well below expected. He’ll start 15th on Saturday night but there’s actually a decent chance that he finishes worse than that.

Photo Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700) – This can’t come as a total surprise. In order for drivers that start up front to be viable options in DraftKings, they have to be aggressive enough to go out there and lead some laps. That definitely doesn’t describe Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if he was running outside of the top 20 by lap 5 on Saturday night. Stenhouse is one of those drivers that likes to hang out at the back of the pack for most of the race and then surge to the front at the end. That used to work quite well for him but in the last four Daytona events, Ricky hasn’t ended up better than 19th. We think that Stenhouse is a nice Fantasy NASCAR pick in many other racing leagues this weekend, but not DraftKings. We would stay away from him and his teammate, Greg Biffle ($6,500), who starts from the pole.

Chris Buescher ($5,000) – This is one of those weeks where it might be a good idea to throw one of the lower-priced drivers on your roster, but we’d highly recommend staying away from Chris Buescher and instead opting for a guy like Regan Smith ($6,000) or Landon Cassill ($5,600). The thing is, Chris Buescher is a constant disappoint for Fantasy NASCAR owners, and that couldn’t be more true at the restrictor plate tracks this season; in this year’s season-opening Daytona 500, Buescher came home 39th after starting 17th, and at Talladega he wound up 37th after starting 27th. The #34 team qualified 25th for Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400 and that alone should disqualify Buescher from being a use-able driver in DraftKings this week. Maybe if he started dead last we would consider taking Chris Buescher at Daytona, but even then we’d have to think about it for quite a while.

Photo Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

Brad Keselowski ($8,900) – Daytona and Talladega are both restrictor plate race tracks, but they’re actually very different venues. And just because you’re good at one doesn’t mean you’re good at the other. Let’s take Brad Keselowski for example. He’s a four-time winner at Talladega and went to victory lane there a couple of months ago. He also has recorded nine top 10s in fifteen career starts at ‘Dega and owns an average finish of 13.9. Here at Daytona, however, Keselowski has an average finish of 22.1 over fourteen career starts with zero wins and just three top 10s. So while Brad has had a few good runs here at Daytona in the past, the majority of the time he disappoints majorly–and we’re not willing to take that chance. He starts 5th for Saturday night’s Coke Zero 400, and because of that good qualifying effort, we can’t see why anyone would put the #2 Ford on their DraftKings team this weekend.

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Daytona 2 Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Rankings and Strategy Picks

Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/NASCAR via Getty Images

We go from a part strategy, part luck race at Sonoma last weekend to one that mostly comes down to luck at Daytona. The Coke Zero 400 is on Saturday night this weekend, and with this race we typically see some fireworks–both during the event and afterward. This is the third restrictor plate race of the season and the second points-paying race at Daytona. As you probably remember, Denny Hamlin barely edged out Martin Truex, Jr. to take home the trophy back here in February. As far as the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto game, this is another excellent week to save starts and pick drivers that are somewhat “out of the box.” We recommend making your picks and just sticking with them, as any driver can finish up front in these types of races.

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Yahoo! A Group Picks and Ranking for Daytona 2

Denny Hamlin (9 starts remaining) – Our plan heading into the Coke Zero 400 race weekend is to start Denny Hamlin no matter what. He’s the most recent race winner here at Daytona and he has had very strong race cars in both restrictor plate races ran in 2016. And not only that, but Hamlin has been the best driver here at Daytona for the last three years or so–hands down. Over the last five points-paying races at this track, Denny hasn’t finished worse than 6th, and his average result over that span is 3.2. His good run luck is going to run out sometime, but you might as well play the hot hand while you can. Hamlin will also be looking to rebound in a big way after that disappointing finish at Sonoma last week.

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

Matt Kenseth (8 starts remaining) – As we mentioned before, our plan is to 100% start Denny Hamlin on Saturday night. Therefore, we’d like to get some qualifying points out of our second A Group pick if at all possible. Matt Kenseth qualified 2nd for this year’s Daytona 500 and 4th for the race back at Talladega. Additionally, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have been the absolute strongest race cars on the plate tracks in 2016, and that isn’t going to change this weekend. Matt might get swapped out for a different driver before the final lockdown on Thursday evening, but as of now we have him on our Daytona 2 team.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is going to be the most popular driver pick this weekend in the A Group, but he hasn’t been very good on the restrictor plate tracks this season (wrecked in each). We’re sitting in the 55th percentile of Yahoo! players after Sonoma, so we need to do something different this weekend, and that means avoiding Junior. Kyle Busch finished 3rd in this year’s Daytona 500 and 2nd at Talladega. He should be a top 5 contender once again on Saturday night but we’re already down to six Rowdy starts left. Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick should be solid on Saturday night, and don’t count out Joey Logano now that this team is starting to get on a roll.

Pre-Lockdown A Group Rankings: (1) Denny Hamlin, (2) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (3) Kyle Busch, (4) Kurt Busch, (5) Kevin Harvick, (6) Joey Logano, (7) Jimmie Johnson, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Brad Keselowski

Yahoo! B Group Picks and Ranking for Daytona 2

Photo Credit: Jonathan Moore/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

Jamie McMurray (7 starts remaining) – Jamie Mac is a two-time winner at Daytona International Speedway, with his most recent victory coming in the 2010 Daytona 500. He’s nowhere near a consistent performer at this track, but he has shown flashes of being very good at times. Looking at the two plate races the Sprint Cup Series has ran thus far in 2016, McMurray has the 6th-best average finish (10.5) and 8th-best average driver rating (93.4). Jamie’s worst finish this season has been 26th, and he’s typically a lock for at least a teen finish. He’s one of the safer options in the B Group this weekend, and for that reason we’re putting him on our team for Daytona 2.

Kasey Kahne (7 starts remaining) – As is the case with him at most race tracks, Kasey Kahne usually runs well here at Daytona but only gets a good finish about half of the time. There’s a couple of things we like about Kahne this weekend, though, and that’s why he’s making our roster. First is how this team performed in June: over the three Sprint Cup races in that month, the #5 Chevrolet came home 6th at Pocono, 13th at Michigan, and 9th at Sonoma. It’s not very common that Kahne has that good of results over a three-race span, so hopefully that momentum rolls into Daytona. Additionally, Kasey has had the 9th-best average driver rating (83.7) of all Sprint Cup drivers over the last five Daytona races, and he came home 13th in this year’s Daytona 500. Yes he’s a risky pick, but who isn’t at Daytona, really?

Austin Dillon taking off his helmet
Photo Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

Austin Dillon (5 starts remaining) – We’re already down to 5 starts remaining with Austin Dillon this season but his record here is too good to ignore. Consistency-wise, he’s right up there with the best of them at this track. Since taking over the #3 Chevrolet, Austin has never finished worse than 14th in a points-paying race at Daytona, and four of his five starts in that car have ended with top 10 results. After coming home 9th in this season’s Daytona 500, Austin finished 3rd at Talladega back in May. If you have six or more starts left with Austin Dillon, we think you have to put him on your roster this weekend. He’s just that good here.

Aric Almirola (9 starts remaining) – This #43 team is still searching for their first top 10 finish of the 2016 Sprint Cup season, and it could very well come here on Saturday night. Believe it or not, Almirola is a pretty decent restrictor plate driver. He came home 12th in this season’s Daytona 500, and actually won the 2014 Coke Zero 400. Overall he has three top 15 finishes in the last four Daytona races. At Talladega, Aric has had similar consistency, with three results of 16th or better in the last five races. We may very well change our mind with this pick before locking down on Thursday evening, but we don’t mind having Almirola as a sleeper pick this weekend.

EDIT: We’re dropping Austin Dillon and putting Trevor Bayne on our team.

Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. are going to be very strong this weekend. We still have 7 starts remaining with Edwards, and while it wouldn’t exactly be the smartest move from a strategic standpoint, he still might make our roster this weekend. None of the other B Group drivers have been stellar on the restrictor plate tracks this season, and that makes it hard to rank them this week. Kyle Larson did finish 7th in this year’s Daytona 500, but we have 5 starts left with him so he won’t make our roster. Clint Bowyer had a surprising top 10 finish at Talladega back in May, but can you trust him? We can’t. If you’re really looking for a sleeper, why not Trevor Bayne? That #6 team has been running pretty good this season and he finished 9th in this race one year ago. Bayne also came home 10th in this year’s Talladega race.

Pre-Lockdown B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Carl Edwards, (3) Austin Dillon, (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Tony Stewart, (8) Aric Almirola, (9) Kyle Larson, (10) Paul Menard, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (13) Danica Patrick, (14) A.J. Allmendinger, (15) Greg Biffle, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears

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Yahoo! C Group Picks and Ranking for Daytona 2

We have no intention of starting either Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney on Saturday night, and honestly it wouldn’t be a wise move. It’s not worth wasting a start at a track like Daytona. With that being said, Elliott might make our team this weekend for the chance at qualifying bonus points. That #24 team has had qualifying figured out on the restrictor plate tracks for the last couple of years, and it has showed this season as Chase has been on the pole for both the Daytona 500 and the first race at Talladega. He finished 5th in the latter race. After seeing the entry list, we’re looking at Landon Cassill as our C Group driver this weekend. He finished 23rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and came home 11th back at Talladega. The next-best C Group driver on the restrictor plate tracks this season has been Michael McDowell, who ended up 15th and 21st, respectively, in those two races. Our C Group picks are the most likely to change before lockdown but right now we have Chase Elliott and Landon Cassill as our two picks.

Pre-Lockdown C Group Rankings(1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Landon Cassill, (4) Michael McDowell, (5) Regan Smith, (6) David Ragan, (7) David Gilliland, (8) Chris Buescher, (9) Reed Sorenson, the rest

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Sonoma Race Day NASCAR Betting Selections

Photo Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Races at Sonoma are very tricky from a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, which means they’re equally as tricky from a betting perspective. We look at these road course races somewhat like a restrictor plate event, so it’s worth putting down some money on a long shot or two. There’s only a few drivers that we can confidently proclaim will finish up front at Sonoma, unlike other races where we know who will be fighting for the win. This race is all about track position and strategy, and because of that the best car might not win. Oh, and tire wear might factor into the equation today as well. It should be a fun race to watch, and that’s about all we can guarantee.

Race Day Betting Picks for the Sonoma Toyota/Save Mart 350

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 11:30 am ET on June 26, 2016 and came from Bovada.

Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

BET OF THE DAY: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Top 5 Finish (+250) – When Mark Martin was racing, one thing you could always count on was his honesty. If you listened to his interviews before the race, you knew what kind of car he had. He’d straight up tell you if his car was just “decent,” as opposed to most drivers who always say they have a car that can win. Well, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has taken over as the most honest driver in the garage. He uses Twitter to comment on the race car, and after Practice #1 on Friday, Junior said the car was “incredible” while posting a picture of the average speed chart (the #88 Chevrolet was fastest). Earnhardt has said this is the best car he has had at Sonoma, and we honestly think he could challenge for the win in the Toyota/Save Mart 350 today. In case you were wondering, Junior is listed at 19-to-1 to win today, and we’re putting money on that as well. He has an average finish of 5th in the last two Sonoma races and starts 13th today, which is actually pretty good for this team.

Clint Bowyer to Win (+6600) – Clint Bowyer might have junk equipment this year, but he is still an elite level talent on this track type. And it’s not like we haven’t seen drivers have good races here at Sonoma in subpar race cars. This #15 team has improved majorly since the start of the 2016 season and are actually competing for top 20 finishes now. That should translate to at least a top 10 chance here at Sonoma, where driver talent and strategy trumps the car (in a way). As far as long-shot bets, Clint Bowyer is your best bet today at Sonoma. His career average finish of 8.6 here is the best among the Sprint Cup drivers, and if he can get track position late in the race, he just might be able to pull this one off. It’s about his only shot to get to victory lane this season.

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

Kevin Harvick to Win (+1900) – When else are you going to get this type of return on a potential Kevin Harvick win? Probably never. The main thing “Happy” has going against him this weekend at Sonoma is his qualifying effort: 25th. With that being said, that #4 Chevrolet is one of the best cars in the field over the long run, and it’s not like Harvick hasn’t had success at this track before: he grabbed his fourth top 5 finish at Sonoma last season. To get to the front on Sunday, the #4 team is going to have to employ a perfect strategy, but Rodney Childers is one of the crew chiefs that can do just that. If Harvick can get up there with the leaders, he can definitely out-race them to take home his first Sonoma win.

BONUS BET OF THE DAY: Casey Mears over Danica Patrick (EVEN) – Danica had her best qualifying effort of the season this weekend (11th), but unfortunately for her, starting position doesn’t mean a whole lot here at Sonoma. Her best finish in the Sprint Cup Series here is 18th, and that came back in the 2014 season when she also qualified 11th. You might be surprised that we’re so sure about Casey Mears in this matchup, but he’s actually a pretty good road course racer. He qualified 8th for this race last season but had mechanical issues and finished 38th. In the three previous Sonoma races, Mears ended up 13th, 16th, and 15th. Barring another mechanical issue, he should definitely finish better than Danica on Sunday.

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