The Michigan race weekend is usually a typical cookie cutter event, but there’s actually a lot of things going on this weekend. First there’s the smaller spoiler on the race cars, which should help with passing on race day. Also, the weather during Saturday’s practice sessions was about 15 degrees higher than what it’s projected to be on Sunday. And then there’s the fact that we haven’t had a repeat winner here at Michigan International Speedway in the last three years.

The Jordan McAbee A Group Curse struck again last week at Pocono when Jimmie Johnson went slamming into the wall, ending up 35th. Our gamble on Kasey Kahne in the B Group salvaged our week somewhat, with a total score of 230 points at “The Tricky Triangle.” We’re in the 45th percentile after 14 of 36 races.

Yahoo! A Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan

Thanks to Kevin Harvick’s bad luck and bad timing in qualifying, he’s going to start from 29th on Sunday afternoon. This isn’t a big deal, as the #4 Chevrolet is good enough to make its way through the field, but at the same time it’s kind of concerning because you never know what’s going to happen. It’s not an ideal situation for your Fantasy NASCAR driver to be stuck in the middle of the pack when a new package is being used and drivers don’t really know what to expect. Our other A Group driver is Brad Keselowski, who qualified 15th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400.

Harvick definitely had the faster car between the two off the truck, but that’s not to say that there isn’t speed in that #2 Ford. Also, Keselowski hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 here at Michigan since 2013, and he’s been one of the best performers in the Sprint Cup Series over the last couple of months. We planned on starting Harvick if he looked like he had the car to beat, could lead the most laps, and win. That just isn’t quite the case this weekend, so we’re starting Brad Keselowski in the A Group for the first time in 2016. He was 2nd-fastest n the Happy Hour speed chart after ranking 5th in Practice #2.

Final A Group Rankings: (1) Joey Logano, (2) Jimmie Johnson, (3) Brad Keselowski, (4) Kevin Harvick, (5) Matt Kenseth, (6) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (7) Kyle Busch, (8) Denny Hamlin, (9) Kurt Busch

Yahoo! B Group Picks and Final Rankings for Michigan

We decided to stay away from Carl Edwards this week for a few reasons, and we thought that plan was working out perfectly on Friday when he qualified 11th. You see, we’d really only like to use Cousin Carl when he has a car that can lead a bunch of laps and win the race. And that’s exactly how this weekend is unfolding. Edwards had a great practice session on Saturday morning, and conditions during that are most like what they will be during the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday. Even Edwards was surprised with how much speed was in his car, and he made a long run during that first session, which is always a sign that he has a shot at contending. There’s a lot of other B Group drivers that are capable of running well here on Sunday, but if you have 7 or more starts remaining with Carl Edwards, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to start him. He probably had the best car in this race one year ago.

Our four B Group drivers for Michigan are Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Paul Menard. We went into this weekend with an absolute intention of starting Menard no matter what, but the fact that he will roll off the grid from 32nd on Sunday concerns us. We just didn’t see enough speed in that #27 Chevrolet to justify a start this weekend, although Menard would be a great option in leagues that award points based on place differential.

The #42 Chevrolet with Kyle Larson has been solid on the speed charts since unloading, and if NASCAR accomplishes what they are attempting (a multi-groove race with emphasis on braking in the corners), that’s setting up for a great run out of Kyle Larson on Sunday. So we’re starting him from the 7th-place starting spot. He almost won this race last season and finished 13th in the fall. So now the choice becomes either Austin Dillon or Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. The latter never really shows what he has in practice, but we think the #17 Ford has some good speed this weekend. At worst, Stenhouse should be about a 15th-place car. Meanwhile, Dillon has been pretty reliable on the intermediate tracks this season and finished 4th here at Michigan last fall. He was quicker than Stenhouse in both practice sessions on Saturday, so we’re going to go ahead and start Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon in the B Group this weekend.

Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Kyle Larson, (3) Martin Truex, Jr., (4) Austin Dillon, (5) Ryan Newman, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Tony Stewart, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) Paul Menard, (10) Trevor Bayne, (11) Kasey Kahne, (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Aric Almirola, (16) Clint Bowyer, (17) Casey Mears

Yahoo! C Group Pick and Final Rankings for Michigan

When Practice #1 was overwith on Friday and the #24 Chevrolet was at the top of the speed chart, we thought this might be the weekend where Chase Elliott is able to get into victory lane. After all, he did have the best car for most of the race at Pocono last weekend. He ended up qualifying 10th for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 while Ryan Blaney will start 5th. Both of those guys are going to have solid top 10 cars this weekend–and maybe even top 5–but we’re still playing the numbers game here in the C Group. From that perspective, the smartest move is to start Ty Dillon at Michigan this weekend. Yeah, we’re sacrificing some points this week, but we’ll make it up later. Dillon is one of those drivers that can simply stay out of trouble and log laps. He will start from 21st for Sunday’s race, and if everything goes as expected, he might be able to crack the top 20 when the checkered flag waves. As long as he doesn’t wreck that #95 Chevrolet, we’ll probably be happy with the start.

Final C Group Rankings: (1) Ryan Blaney, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) Brian Scott, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Michael Annett, (9) David Ragan, the rest

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Well, we go from a rain-extended weekend in Pocono to the race track that basically turned into a small lake last year. In the 2015 June race here at Michigan International Speedway, there were scattered storms throughout the day, causing many red flags, until eventually the biggest storm of all came, flooded parts of the venue, and awarded the win to Kurt Busch. I remember vividly because I was there sitting through it. Anyway, the forecast this weekend (at least on race day) looks clear, so we shouldn’t have to worry about delays during the 2016 FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan is a big 2-mile race track that will see speeds reach 210+ mph going into turn one. If you’re looking for a similar track that we’ve ran at this season, look no further than the Fontana race back in March.

Yahoo! A Group Picks for Michigan

Kevin Harvick (6 starts remaining) – We might regret this later in the season–from a start perspective–but Kevin Harvick is the absolute best A Group selection at Michigan International Speedway this weekend. Only Joey Logano has a better average finish than Harvick in the last six races here at MIS, and that says a lot because the latter has finished 2nd in five of the last six races here. No, that’s not a typo. Harvick also had the best car at Fontana earlier this year, leading 142 of the 205 laps, but we all know how that ended (with Jimmie Johnson in victory lane). The #4 Chevrolet is definitely going to be a contender in this year’s FireKeepers Casino 400 and it wouldn’t surprise us at all if he finally got his second win of the 2016 season on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski (9 starts remaining) – If we’ve learned one thing about Brad Keselowski over the years it’s that you should use him on your Fantasy NASCAR teams once he starts heating up. Well, only one driver has a better average finish than Keselowski over the last six Sprint Cup races, and that is last week’s Pocono winner, Kurt Busch. And here at Michigan International Speedway, only two drivers have a better average finish over the last four races than Kez, and they are Joey Logano and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. This is Keselowski’s home race track and you know he’s going to be trying his hardest to finally get a win here. Will he be able to do it? The #2 Ford has had quite a bit of speed in it as of late and he’s currently on a four-race streak of top 10 finishes here.

As far as the other A Group drivers, Joey Logano should be a contender on Sunday and he still might make our roster. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was pissed off for not winning the Pocono race last weekend and has four straight top 10 finishes here at Michigan, but can you really put him on your team over the top A Group drivers? Kurt Busch won this race one year ago but that was because it was rain-shortened. That’s one of just two top 5s in the last eleven Michigan races for Kurt. His brother, Kyle, has also struggled at Michigan as of late, so we’d recommend laying off him this weekend.

Yahoo! B Group Picks for Michigan

Paul Menard (6 starts remaining) – Some mediocre drivers can have a couple of good races at a track and we’ll call it a fluke. But when their good runs at a particular venue continue for three or more years, it’s no fluke. Thus is the case with Paul Menard at Michigan International Speedway. We can’t explain it, but he’s just good here. Over the last seven Michigan races, Menard hasn’t finished worse than 14th, and he owns three top 5s over that span (and five top 10s). And it’s not like he’s lucking into these finishes just by staying on the lead lap: Menard has the 7th-best average driver rating (96.0) over the last four Michigan races, better than Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin–just to name a few. Looking at the Fontana race from earlier this season–another 2-mile race track–Menard came home 15th after starting 13th. We’re expecting a similar performance out of him in the Irish Hills this weekend, which makes him the perfect start save B Group driver.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (7 starts remaining) – Looking back at Pocono last weekend, I thought this team was finally going to have a bad week. But lo and behold, after looking like junk for the entire race weekend, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. was up there in his normal mid-teens spot by the middle of the race. He ended up finishing 15th, as usual lately–and a great run for him at a track he has historically struggled at. That alone shows that this #17 team is progressing much more (and much faster) than most people predicted this season. Now we’re at Michigan International Speedway, a track where the Roush-Fenway Fords used to dominate. That hasn’t happened in quite a while but they’re coming back nonetheless. In six career Sprint Cup starts here at MIS, Stenhouse owns an average finish of 21.3 with a career-best finish of 15th coming in 2014. We’re willing to bet that he challenges for something a little better this weekend. Ricky ran a surprising 5th at Fontana earlier this year and had the 10th-best driver rating in that race.

Carl Edwards (7 starts remaining) – We don’t really want to use a Carl Edwards start here at Michigan–especially with the other solid B Group options–but we’re going to be safe here and keep him on our roster just in case he looks good enough to win. When you think which cars have been the best at the high-speed tracks this season, you’re probably thinking of Joe Gibbs Racing–and you’re right. Carl Edwards ran 7th in the Fontana race earlier this year but we’re betting he’s a solid top 5 car here at Michigan on Sunday. As far as his record here at Michigan, Edwards is a two-time winner and has finished inside the top 10 in sixteen of his twenty-three starts here (70%). In this race one year ago, Edwards started 4th and led 41 of the 138 laps (39.7%) but he gambled late on fuel and it didn’t pay off. Remember, this race was shortened thanks to rain last season, but the forecast looks clear (and good) for Edwards this time around. Part of the reason we don’t mind throwing the #19 Toyota on our roster this week is because we have 7 starts left.

EDIT: Last minute change. We’re swapping out Carl Edwards for Kyle Larson.

Austin Dillon (6 starts remaining) – There’s quite a few options in the B Group that you could put a blanket on heading into the race weekend–meaning they’re all basically ranked about the same. So, depending on your start situation, you could throw Austin Dillon on here, or Kyle Larson, or Kasey Kahne. The reason we’re going with Austin Dillon on our team is because of just how strong he was here at Michigan last fall. He started 4th in that race and led 19 laps en route to his 4th-place finish (and 112.3 driver rating). When you add that to the fact that the #3 Chevrolet has pretty much been the most solid mid-tier fantasy pick on the intermediate tracks this season, then you can probably understand why we’re rolling with Austin. At Fontana this year, he sat on the pole and had top 10 potential but had problems on pit road.

Martin Truex, Jr. should be solid, but we’re down to 5 starts remaining with the #78 Toyota. Also, his performance at Pocono last week was a little concerning. Remember, Truex kind of fell apart after getting his win in 2015, so that’s something to keep an eye on. If you’re looking for a deep sleeper in the B Group, why not Greg Biffle? He’s a four-time winner at Michigan and has five top 10s in the last eight races here. Biffle was a nice start save option at Pocono last weekend until he ran out of gas. A.J. Allmendinger is another sleeper that is running well as of late and has mid-teens potential heading into the weekend.

Yahoo! C Group Picks for Michigan

Ty Dillon will once again be piloting the #95 Circle Sport Chevrolet this weekend, so he’s a must-pick in the C Group this weekend purely from an allocation perspective. He should also be a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick overall (in the lower tiers) just because he can stay out of trouble. Ty ran the #33 Chevrolet for Circle Sport here at Michigan in last year’s June race and came home 14th after starting 22nd. He had the 10th-best driver rating in that rain-shortened race, for what it’s worth. As far as our other C Group pick for Michigan, we’re going to go with Chase Elliott. The #24 Chevrolet has been strong here over the last few years with Jeff Gordon driving it, and he won from the pole here in the fall 2014 race. As far as Chase goes, he wound up finishing 6th back at Fontana, which is the only other 2-mile race track that we’ve been to in 2016. So, the C Group picks for Michigan are Ty Dillon and Chase Elliott with full intentions of starting the former on Sunday.

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