There are very few drivers that are going to come up through the field and have a shot at a top 5 finish this weekend because of how it all played out on Friday. We had the first practice session as scheduled, but then qualifying was rained out so the starting lineup for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 was set by those initial practice speeds. The bad things for DraftKings players is that the best picks for this race all start toward the front, so we will have to forget about place differential points for some and instead try and capitalize on laps led and fastest lap points. There are some drivers that should make their way through the field on Sunday, though. Keep in mind that almost 80% of the winners here at Richmond have started inside the top 10, and each of the last three started 3rd or better. We also haven’t had a repeat winner at this track in the last four years (eight races).

Ultimate Value DraftKings Picks for the Richmond Toyota Owners 400

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($9,300) – While Kasey Kahne should have a permanent spot for DraftKings drivers to avoid (read about that here), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is a consistent driver that you should definitely pick. The thing is, this #88 team always seems to struggle to find speed at the beginning of a race weekend. We didn’t even qualify this weekend and Junior still isn’t getting that great of a starting spot. But, like we’ve seen many times this year, it doesn’t really faze him. Hell, he started the Bristol race without any power and went two laps down, only to come back and finish 2nd. We still don’t see how that happened. Anyway, Junior starts 16th here at Richmond on Sunday, and while the #88 Chevrolet wasn’t the fastest on Saturday, we’re confident that this team will find the speed they need by the checkered flag on Sunday. Earnhardt has won three times here at Richmond in the Sprint Cup Series and just today won the Xfinity race. In the last Cup race here (last September), he finished 5th after starting 29th. Earnhardt, Jr. should be a solid DraftKings choice this weekend, and at only $9,300!? Steal.

Paul Menard ($6,700) – Paul Menard is one of the cheaper DraftKings options this weekend, and that works out great because he should give us plenty of place differential points on Sunday. This #27 Chevrolet started out pretty bad on Friday, and because of that Menard will start 26th for this year’s Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond. However, this #27 team seemed to turn things around on Saturday, as Paul quietly posted the 9th-best lap in Happy Hour while ranking 21st on the ten-lap average chart. He finished 15th in this race one year ago and has ended up 18th or better in five of the last eight Richmond races. Menard also has three top 15s in the last three Sprint Cup races overall, and that includes his only top 10 finish of the season thus far back at Martinsville.

Jimmie Johnson ($10,000) – We look at it this way: in terms of price, Jimmie Johnson is 7th this week. But in terms of points, he has the opportunity to be 1st. Going into Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400, we think the race is going to be won by either Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, or Kyle Busch. However, we’re leaning more toward Harvick and Johnson as the drivers that are going to lead the majority of this race, and, we we mentioned before, that’s where we need to target DraftKings points this weekend. Jimmie Johnson has won three times here at Richmond International Raceway and will start Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 from the 3rd place. He had the fastest lap in Happy Hour on Saturday and had the best ten-lap average as well. With as many solid low-dollar DraftKings options available this weekend, you should be able to easily afford some of the “top dogs” for Richmond, and we think Jimmie Johnson is going to give DraftKings owners a big return this weekend.

Ryan Blaney ($6,800) – At this price, Blaney is going to be on the majority of DraftKings rosters this weekend. He starts 29th, too, so you know everyone is going to be hopping all over the #21 Ford. However, we can’t really blame them, because it’s probably going to be the right pick. Heading into Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400, we have Ryan Blaney ranked as a top 15 threat, although the opportunity for him to run top 10 is there. With those finish points paired with the place differential points, we could get a huge return for not a lot of money. Blaney was 13th on the overall speed chart during Saturday’s lone practice session and ranked 10th in ten-lap average. The other rookie, Chase Elliott, should be a great choice in DraftKings this week as well. He starts 23rd and should be able to finish top 10 if he has an error-free race. Elliott costs a full $2,000 more than Blaney, though, at $8,800.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($8,500) – If you don’t want to go with Chase Elliott this weekend, or can’t quite fit his salary on your DraftKings roster, Martin Truex, Jr. should be a good pick for Richmond and is a little bit cheaper. This #78 team has had a tendency to under-perform this season, but with Truex starting 22nd for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400, it’s going to take a wreck or some mechanical issue for him to do that again. The #78 Toyota was 7th-fastest during Saturday’s lone practice session and Truex laid down the 11th-best ten-lap average as well. His record at this race track is nowhere near stellar (average finish of 22nd over twenty career starts) but Martin has finished 10th in each of the last two Richmond spring races and has had three results inside that mark over his last five overall starts at this track. Even just a 15th-place run on Sunday would net Martin Truex, Jr. DraftKings owners 36 points.

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Richmond International Raceway is a 0.75-mile track that is technically considered a short track, but with the way it is laid out and the speeds we reach here, it races like a speedway. In our opinion, some of the best Sprint Cup action we will see all year will be right here at Richmond. Qualifying was rained out on Friday, so the field was set by the first practice speeds. That means that the drivers that were fast off the truck are going to be starting up front. There aren’t many DraftKings drivers that you should avoid like the plague this weekend, but there are some, so make sure the following guys aren’t on your rosters.

DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond

Kasey Kahne ($8,200) – Kasey Kahne should have a permanent spot on these weekly lists. You see, Kasey Kahne always has been–and probably always will be–a disappointing Fantasy NASCAR option. And this year especially, he’s been blowing smoke up people’s asses on a more regular basis. What I mean by that is that he looks really good during practice and qualifying and then ends up laying an egg on race day. Let’s just look at the fact that in the seven races since the Daytona 500, Kahne has finished worse than he started in four of them. He also has just two top 10s on the year with four finishes in the mid-20s. This weekend at Richmond, it was the same old story with Kasey Kahne: he will start Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 from 8th, and he posted the 2nd-fastest lap during Saturday’s Happy Hour practice. Kahne did finish 6th in this race last season but that’s his only result better than 12th in the last seven races here. He’s not worth the gamble this weekend.

Clint Bowyer ($7,200) – Clint Bowyer had a huge DraftKings week at Bristol last Sunday, so congratulations on those who took the gamble there. But let’s not get all excited and think that Clint Bowyer is “back” or anything. Remember, Matt DiBenedetto finished 6th at Bristol, so to mark that race off as a fluke–or whatever other term you can think of–is alright with us. This week, Clint Bowyer is “back” to his normal self and will probably struggle to crack the top 30 during the race. He starts 39th, which is attractive for those looking at place differential points, but he was 37th-fastest in Happy Hour and is severely overpriced this week at $7,200. The reason his price is so high is because Bower has six top 10s in the last eight Richmond races, but trust us, he has virtually no chance of finishing that high this weekend.

Denny Hamlin ($10,400) – We’re going to file this under “overpriced.” Quite simply, it’s not worth taking the $10,400 hit and putting Denny Hamlin on your DraftKings team this weekend. He’s the 3rd-highest-priced driver in this game for Richmond but he’s probably not even going to be in the top 10 in terms of points scored. Yeah, Denny is a two-time winner at this track and owns an impressive 10.8 career average finish here, but he has finished 18th or worse in five of his last six starts here, and you can’t really chalk that up to bad luck. Also, this #11 team has been anything but a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick since winning at Daytona; in the last seven Sprint Cup races, Hamlin has two good finishes (3rd at Phoenix and Fontana) but other than that hasn’t been much of a factor and hasn’t posted a result better than 12th. Hamlin will start 5th for this Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400, so really the only way you could justify him as a DraftKings pick is if he was going to lead a bunch of laps, and we just don’t see that happening.

Austin Dillon ($7,800) – After starting off the 2016 season red hot, this #3 team has made an abrupt landing back down on Earth. With his 26th-place finish a Bristol last weekend, Austin Dillon has now ended up 19th or worse in three of the last four Sprint Cup races, and if history is going to repeat itself, then he’s going to make it four of the last five here at Richmond on Sunday. In four career starts here at RIR, Austin Dillon has finished 27th three times–hey, at least he’s consistent–while posting a 20th-place result here in 2014. This weekend, he starts 11th, so he’s probably going to lose points on place differential, and the #3 Chevrolet ranked 24th-fastest during Happy Hour on Saturday (and just 19th on the ten-lap average chart). If Austin started mid-pack for this year’s Toyota Owners 400 he might be an option in DraftKings, but since he doesn’t, you won’t find him on any of our rosters.

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