Texas Motor Speedway is 1.5-mile D-shaped oval that is somewhat similar to Atlanta Motor Speedway, where we ran at in late February. We saw quite a few drivers come up through the field in that Atlanta race, led by race-winner Jimmie Johnson, who started 19th. Here at Texas, we’ve seen qualifying be of a little bit more importance, though, as both races in 2015 saw drivers that started up front also finish there. This weekend, however, we saw quite a few drivers qualify mid-pack or worse that we expect to finish up front–specifically the “big three:” Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch. The best rosters this week should have at least one of those guys on them.

Ultimate Value DraftKings Picks for the Texas Duck Commander 500

Kevin Harvick ($10,500) – Yeah, Kevin Harvick is going to take a big chunk of our salary cap this weekend, but it’s going to be worth it. The #4 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 22nd when the Duck Commander 500 goes green but Harvick should be able to quickly make his way up through the field. He had the 4th-best ten-lap average during that final practice session on Friday and is currently on a three-race streak of top 3 finishes here at Texas Motor Speedway. The key to choosing the right high-priced driver this weekend is going with the one that is going to lead the most laps. We think that that’s going to be Kevin Harvick, and as an added bonus he also starts mid-pack, so there’s plenty of room for place differential points as well.

Kurt Busch ($8,400) – The elder Busch brother is right there on the upper edge of the mid-priced drivers this week, and for that reason he’s probably worth a shot depending on how the rest of your roster adds up. The good news about this #41 Chevrolet is that it has seemed to found more speed as the weekend has gone on. Kurt qualified 21st for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500 but he ended up with the 6th-fastest lap in Happy Hour on Friday and was 12th when it came to ten-lap average during that session. He also has two top 10 finishes in his last three Texas starts and wound up 14th in this race one year ago after starting from the pole and leading 45 laps.

Paul Menard ($6,500) – Paul Menard has been a solid teens finisher for most races this season, and he finally broke out with a top 10 result at Martinsville a week ago. That could be the boost in the arm that this #27 team needs to go on a little streak. For Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500, Menard qualified 25th, which is pretty much the perfect starting spot for someone like him and at his price. Paul did finish 13th here last November and has ended up 17th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races at Texas Motor Speedway. A 17th-place result here on Saturday night would net Menard about 35 points in DraftKings, which is a very good value for his $6,500 price tag.

Brian Scott ($5,600) – If you want to load up on the high-priced drivers this week, you’re going to have to put at least one low-priced driver on your DraftKings roster. So why not give Brian Scott a chance? He qualified 27th, which is a little higher than we would have liked, but he ran 14th in the fall race here last season while driving the #33 Chevrolet for Circle Sport, and he’s coming off of a solid 12th-place run at Fontana a couple weeks ago. You never know, with the right caution placement and a little luck, Brian Scott could surprise some people again here at Texas. He was 18th-best in ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Friday.

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This week, we have our first Saturday night race of the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup season here at Texas Motor Speedway. The Duck Commander 500 should produce some excellent racing as the night goes on, and it will be interesting to see which teams are able to keep up with the track. Considering this is a 500-mile race–and the fact that we will be transitioning from late afternoon to night–the track should change quite a bit from green to checkered flag.

The point of this post is to weed out the overrated and overpriced drivers in the DraftKings games. Typically, this includes those that qualify up front but probably aren’t going to finish there. With a six-driver roster, you simply can’t afford to have someone on there that is going to lose you points. Below are some of the major drivers to avoid for this week’s Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, and if you want to see the starting lineup for Saturday night’s race you can by going here.

DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Duck Commander 500 at Texas

Kyle Larson ($8,200) – Don’t let Kyle Larson’s top 5 finish last weekend at Martinsville fool you: this #42 team is still pretty lost when it comes to the intermediate race tracks. After finishing 26th at Atlanta earlier this year, Larson came home 34th at Las Vegas and then wound up 39th at Fontana. I guess you can’t get any worse. Anyway, Kyle is priced as on the upper side of the mid-range drivers for DraftKings this weekend, and while you may be eyeing some place differential points from him because he starts 20th on Saturday night, we wouldn’t recommend taking the chance. Larson did finish 5th and 7th in the two Texas races in 2014 but followed that up with 25th- and 37th-place results here last season. To cap it all off, the #42 Chevrolet didn’t even crack the top 20 in the Happy Hour practice on Friday. At best, Larson is looking at a 15th place finish in this year’s Duck Commander 500.

Joey Logano ($10,000) – Typically you wouldn’t find Joey Logano on any avoid list when we’re at a cookie cutter race track, but if you’ve been paying attention to his season at all, you’ll know why we aren’t recommending him in DraftKings this weekend. Basically, for Logano to be even somewhat worth his price this weekend, he’s going to have to lead quite a few laps on Saturday night. While he will be rolling off the grid in 2nd on Saturday night, he unfortunately will have to deal with pole sitter Carl Edwards right off the bat, who we believe has a car that can win–and that will lead for a while to start the race. While we do believe the #22 Ford is a solid top 10 car for this year’s Duck Commander 500, getting mid-30s points in DraftKings isn’t what you want out of a $10,000 driver.

Clint Bowyer ($7,000) – Don’t fall for the trap. Clint qualified 36th for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500, which means he would seemingly be an excellent choice for most DraftKings teams due to the opportunity for place differential points. But at $7,000? Get the hell out of here. It’s more likely that Bowyer is going to run in the mid-30s all race long this weekend than him finding speed and running in the mid-20s, which is what you need to make this gamble pay off. He finished 35th at Atlanta back in February and the #15 Chevrolet has pretty much been a joke every race this year. You can read more about our thoughts on Clint Bowyer by clicking here, including whether or not we think he can make the Chase. We’d think about throwing Bowyer on our DraftKings rosters if he was cheaper, but at $7,000 it’s simply not worth it.

Brian Vickers ($6,400) – A lot of people are going to be eyeing Brian Vickers because of his low price point this weekend, but we’re not going to fall for the trap. If he was down there in the $5,500 price range, as we’ve become accustomed to, we would think about it, but not in the mid-$6,000 range. Vickers will start Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500 from the 13th starting spot, which isn’t terrible as far as the risk you’d take on losing place differential points. Our main concern is that the speed in the #14 Chevrolet seemed to have went away in that final practice session on Friday, and we wouldn’t consider Brian the most patient of drivers when things start to go wrong. Even if Vickers is able to finish 20th on Saturday night, that’s only 17 points for DraftKings owners.

Denny Hamlin ($9,100) – While it may be worth it to take a shot with some of the drivers starting up front this weekend, Denny Hamlin is not one of them. This #11 Toyota has simply been too much of a wildcard this season to confidently put Hamlin on any Fantasy NASCAR roster. Yeah, he has three top 5 finishes to his name in 2016, but Denny has also finished outside of the top 15 in three of the six Sprint Cup races ran thus far–including Atlanta back in February as well as Las Vegas a week later. Hamlin does have two victories here at Texas Motor Speedway, but he hasn’t even sniffed the top 5 here since the 2010 season, and he has just two top 10 results in his last nine starts here. Hamlin starts 6th in this year’s Duck Commander 500, and while we do think he could come away with a top 10 finish, that’s not good enough to put him on any DraftKings roster–especially at the $9,100 price point.

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