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Fontana (Auto Club) Race Day NASCAR Betting Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
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Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick racing at Atlanta 2016
Photo Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

The first four races of the 2016 Sprint Cup season have produced some excellent on-track racing action that has been good not only for our eyeballs but our bank accounts as well. Although Carl Edwards almost spoiled it last weekend at Phoenix, heavy favorite Kevin Harvick did take home the win, allowing us to collect some money at his 3-to-1 odds we locked in at earlier in the week. We did skip this Race Day Betting Picks article last week (because Harvick was the clear and pretty much only choice), but we’re back this week!

Auto Club Speedway is a large, 2-mile race track that is bumpy and worn out–similar to the conditions we saw at Atlanta a few weeks ago. Although this should produce some excellent racing, it’s kind of difficult to handicap this race. We saw Brad Keselowski take home the checkered flag last year (we luckily had him at +1200), and our initial gut reaction this weekend is that we might see a crazy ending once again. Probably not as crazy as yesterday’s Xfinity race, though (did you see that? If not, YouTube it).

Kevin Harvick jumped up to the favorite heading into today’s Auto Club 400 at +450 and is followed by Kyle Busch at +500. The driver that was the favorite earlier in the week, Jimmie Johnson, calmed down to +600 from +450 on Wednesday.

Race Day Betting Picks for Fontana

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:30 am ET on March 20, 2016 and came from Bovada.

BET OF THE DAY: Ryan Blaney (-130) over Kyle Larson – This is a late add for our post, as we locked it in at 1:30 pm on Sunday. This is easily the lock of the week when it comes to betting on NASCAR. In most people’s minds’ Ryan Blaney is a for-sure top 15 pick with a possible top 10 shot. Kyle Larson, meanwhile, qualified in the mid-30s, will possibly be going to a backup car because of a wreck in practice, and has had disappointing finishes all season long. The only way Ryan Blaney doesn’t finish ahead of Kyle Larson is if he has mechanical issues or something unpredictable happens. We’re going big on this bet this week.

LONG SHOT BET OF THE DAY: Martin Truex, Jr. (+1600) – The #78 team had a disappointing qualifying run on Friday and will have to start today’s Auto Club 400 from the 17th-place starting spot, but remember: it’s not where you start, it’s where you finished. Truex was probably the most consistent car on the speed chart during the two practice sessions on Friday, and he ended Happy Hour with the best ten-lap average ahead of other long shot Austin Dillon. Now, Truex has never posted a top 5 finish here at Fontana, but he ran 8th in this race one year ago and don’t forget that he had a top 3 car back at Atlanta a few weeks ago. Also, Brad Keselowski won this race a year ago, and in his previous six Auto Club starts, he never ended up better than 18th. Truex is one of the best at these fast race tracks where you can rim ride, and being able to get him at 16-to-1 odds is a steal and worth a shot.

Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Carl Edwards (+600) – The driver of the #19 Toyota started out the week at 10-to-1 odds and now that it’s finally Sunday, they have him down to 6-to-1. Vegas knows what’s up. The rule of thumb is that whenever Carl Edwards shows up on the ten-lap average chart at a big, intermediate track, he has a top 5 race car. Well, Fontana certainly fits that criteria, and Carl was 3rd in ten-lap average during that final practice session on Saturday. Edwards has one victory here at Fontana (back in 2008) and has to be dying to get to victory lane after coming so close at Phoenix one week ago. The #19 Toyota is definitely a top 5 car for today’s race, and with the right strategy, we could very well see this team get to victory lane. Carl finished 5th at Atlanta a few weeks ago.

Kevin Harvick (+450) – Honestly, this race already has the make up of a Kevin Harvick domination. He starts 2nd and should be able to easily get around pole sitter Austin Dillon after a few laps. Once the #4 Chevrolet takes over, is there really any other car that can flat out beat him? Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch (starting 5th and 6th) might be able to contend, but the other really fast race cars, like the #48 Chevrolet of Jimmie Johnson, start mid-pack today. Harvick last won here at Fontana in 2011 and you know he’d love to get another win at his home track for his kid. He finished 2nd in this race one year ago, and now that they’re locked into the Chase, crew chief Rodney Childers will be able to take some more gambles during the races. The #4 Chevrolet ranked 4th on both ten-lap average charts during Saturday’s practice sessions.

Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images

BET TO AVOID: Austin Dillon (+1100) – If we could go back and do it all over again, we’d time travel back to Wednesday night and throw a little bit of money on Austin Dillon at 33-to-1 odds. But, unfortunately, that technology isn’t available, so we’re just sitting here twiddling our thumbs. Austin Dillon is an excellent long shot pick today and should be used in most Fantasy NASCAR leagues, but falling for the trap of betting on him today should be considered cruel and unusual punishment. Yeah, he’s on the pole, and yes, the #3 Chevrolet looks to have close to top 5 speed, but do you really think this kid is going to win the Auto Club 400? You can get better drivers with better odds–such as Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (+1200), Denny Hamlin (+1400), and Brad Keselowski (+1600)–for today’s race, go with them instead.

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DraftKings Ultimate Value Fantasy NASCAR Drivers for Auto Club (Fontana)

By
Jordan McAbee
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Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Last week at Phoenix, we had a pretty predictable race on Sunday, although there were a few drivers that ruined a bunch of Fantasy NASCAR rosters. A couple of those drivers–specifically Ryan Newman and Paul Menard–were on our list of “Ultimate Value” DraftKings picks for Phoenix, which further underlines the importance of making the right selections in those mid-tier options.

This week, we have some “heavy hitters” starting mid-pack along with those other mid-tier drivers, so there are a plethora of DraftKings rosters that you could put together this week. Below we outline some of the highest value picks that are available for the race this weekend, and we’d recommend building your rosters around them.

For Sunday’s Auto Club 400 starting lineup, please click here.

Ultimate Value DraftKings Picks for the Auto Club 400

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($9,600) – Here’s one of those “heavy hitter” drivers we talked about in the opening. Yeah, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has a hefty price tag associated with him, but he should be well worth the money on Sunday. The #88 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 27th, which means there’s plenty of room to gain place differential points and not that much of a risk of losing them. For whatever reason, this #88 team is just not very good at qualifying–an issue that plagued them in 2015 as well. Last week, however, we saw Junior start from 26th and quickly make his way (and finish) in the top 5, so we’re not concerned about his starting spot this week very much. Earnhardt finished 6th in the 2015 Auto Club 400 and hasn’t finished worse than 12th here since the 2010 season. In Happy Hour on Saturday, the #88 Chevrolet was 13th in overall speed and ranked 22nd in ten-lap average–although it should be noted that their run came later on in the session. Even just a 10th-place result out of Junior on Sunday would net around 50 points in DraftKings.

Kurt Busch putting on helmet
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

Kurt Busch ($9,500) – If you remember earlier this week, Kurt Busch was actually one of our picks to win this race, so the fact that he will start 26th for the Auto Club 400 on Sunday is great news for us in games like NASCAR.com Fantasy Live and, yes, DraftKings. This #41 team have been the qualifying kings of 2016 but, for whatever reason, had a slip up here at Fontana on Friday. As we all know, however, it’s not where you start, it’s where you finish–especially with DraftKings. Not many drivers have been better than Kurt Busch here at Fontana as of late, as he’s currently on a three-race streak of top 5 finishes here, and probably should have won last year’s event. This is arguably Kurt Busch’s best track on the Sprint Cup circuit and he hasn’t finished worse than 10th in the 2016 Sprint Cup season thus far. Now for the bad news. Kurt hit the wall in Practice #2 and did enough damage to the car that he will have to go to a backup machine and start from the rear. However, we believe that this might actually help Busch, as his primary car wasn’t that great. Kurt was just 24th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday but he has a teammate (Kevin Harvick) with a whole bunch of speed to borrow notes from before the Auto Club 400 on Sunday.

Martin Truex, Jr. ($8,800) – At this price, Truex is right on the edge between the high-priced drivers and the mid-range drivers for the Auto Club 400, but he has the potential to be one of the top scoring drivers this week. The #78 Toyota qualified 17th for the Auto Club 400 on Sunday, but the race car is far better than that–at least judging by the practice speeds. In Practice #2, Truex was 2nd on the overall speed chart and ranked 2nd in ten-lap average as well. However, we don’t put much stock in that session. Looking at Happy Hour, though, the #78 Toyota ranked 7th on the speed chart and had the best ten-lap average to go along with it. Truex ran 8th in this race one year ago but has the potential to finish better than that this weekend. At only $8,800, it’s hard to turn down a potential top 5 finisher in DraftKings, especially one that starts mid-pack.

Kyle Larson ($8,200) – Now we’re getting down to the lower priced drivers instead of those that are going to take a big chunk of money for your roster. Kyle Larson is the ultimate high risk/high reward pick this week. He’ll, we’d almost put him in the “super high risk” category. If he would have qualified in the top 15, we would have avoided him like the plague. However, the #42 Chevrolet ended up 32nd on the qualifying board on Friday, so that opened the door to some consideration. He went on to wreck his primary car in Happy Hour, so Kyle will start in the rear on Sunday–although still be credited with the 32nd-place starting spot. However, maybe this team will find more speed in the backup car than the primary. It seemed like the #41 team did this week. In the two intermediate races this season (Atlanta and Las Vegas), Larson has finished 26th and 34th, respectively. However, he’s coming off of a 12th-place run at Phoenix, and that’s actually a pretty accurate representation of him as a Fantasy NASCAR pick–inconsistent and unreliable. Looking at Fontana specifically, Larson finished 2nd here in his rookie campaign and wound up 26th in last year’s event. At the $8,200 price point this week, he’s going to be an attractive option, but realistically Larson will need to finish around 15th on Sunday for him to be worth that kind of money. It’s certainly possible that that happens, but it’s nowhere near guaranteed–and we probably won’t be taking the gamble to find out.

Photo Credit: Jerry Markland/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jerry Markland/Getty Images

Paul Menard ($6,500) – We love this pick. Getting Paul Menard at $6,500 is one of the best fantasy options you have in DraftKings this week. First, let’s consider the fact that Paul finished 4th in this race one year ago, and he’s currently on a three-race streak of top 10s at Auto Club Speedway. Now, looking at this season, Menard came home 18th at Atlanta, and 15th at Las Vegas. Those finishes aren’t great, we know, but they’re decent. This weekend, Menard will start the race from 13th, which is a little higher than we’d like, but the potential for a top 10 finish is there. In Practice #2 on Saturday morning, the #27 Chevrolet was 6th-fastest in overall speed and on the ten-lap average chart, and then in Happy Hour Menard ranked 18th and 8th, respectively. When you compare the drivers that are at the same price point (or lower) as Menard this week, you have to give the nod to the driver of the #27 Chevrolet, although you could make a case for Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at $6,500 as well.

Brian Vickers ($5,400) – Here’s the driver that’s probably going to fill out a lot of DraftKings rosters this week. At the $5,400 price point, it’s hard not to consider Brian Vickers. He’s in the #14 Chevrolet, which we all know has the potential to run top 10, and Vickers isn’t too bad here at Fontana; in his last nine starts at this race track, Brian has came home in 12th place or better in eight of them. Do we think that he will be able to run that well in the 2016 Auto Club 400? No. But a top 15 isn’t out of the question for this #14 team on Sunday. Vickers will start from 24th-place this weekend, which means you’re not really going to lose points unless he hits the wall or has a mechanical issue, two things Brian actually has the tendency to do. Again, at this price, picking Vickers will allow you to afford some of the higher-priced drivers, which should be where all the points are gained this weekend.

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Auto Club (Fontana) Final Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

By
Jordan McAbee
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Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Well, our Yahoo! team bounced back in a big way at Phoenix thanks to the win from Kevin Harvick and the 2nd-place finish by Carl Edwards. We were a little bit on the fence that we used an Edwards start last week, but it was well worth it. Those are the kind of finishes you need to get out of the #19 Toyota and the #78 Toyota in the B Group this year. Now we just wish that we had the former on our roster this week at Fontana.

Unfortunately, what it takes to run well here at Fontana is a strong engine and a lot of talent–and that combination is typically only found in the A Group of Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing. There are some drivers in the lower tiers that can grab a respectable finish, but they’re pretty slim picking–and that requires us to make some tough decisions, especially when it comes to start saving.

Our final rankings for each driver grouping in the Yahoo! Auto Racing game for Fontana (Auto Club) can be found below. We arrived at these taking into account the practice results from Saturday along with what happened during qualifying on Friday. The early morning practice session on Saturday shouldn’t have too much weight to it, so we’d recommend focusing on Happy Hour. As usual, be sure to check out ifantasyrace.com for the practice speeds and other great fantasy content. And don’t forget about the Post Practice Predictions where we rank all drivers 1 through 25 for the Auto Club 400 on Sunday!

Yahoo! A Group Final Rankings for Fontana

Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

We really thought that this decision was going to be tougher than it was, but here we are. To put it simply, Kyle Busch has the car that can contend for the win on Sunday. Kurt Busch, meanwhile, has had a rough weekend thus far, and rolled out a backup car during practice on Saturday–presumably because his primary car was just that bad. So, the #41 Chevrolet will start the Auto Club 400 from the rear of the field while the #18 Toyota will roll off the grid in 6th. Kyle Busch hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 in any race this season, and unless he finds unexpected trouble here on Sunday, that streak should continue. It’s a no brainer–The Choice: Kyle Busch

Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Jimmie Johnson, (4) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (5) Joey Logano, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Matt Kenseth, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Denny Hamlin

Yahoo! B Group Final Rankings for Fontana

Well, we missed the boat on Carl Edwards this week. We purposely kept the #19 Toyota off of our Yahoo! roster for Fontana because we wanted to save starts, but we’re regretting that decision in a big way right now. Carl Edwards is by far the best B Group choice this week, and if you have him on your roster, you have to start him. He’s probably going to score more points than most A Group drivers this week, as the #19 Toyota should be a threat to win on Sunday.

Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Brian Lawdermilk/NASCAR via Getty Images

Looking at our team, we have Austin Dillon, who won the pole on Friday and who looks like a solid top 10 choice. So we’ll go ahead and lock him in, especially since he should get another 10 bonus points for leading a lap. Now we have to decide on our second starter, and the choices are Paul Menard, Martin Truex, Jr., and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Although we really like Stenhouse as a solid sleeper pick this weekend (he had the 5th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour), we simply can’t take the risk of starting him here in the Yahoo! league. So it comes down to Paul Menard or Martin Truex, Jr.

Menard will start Sunday’s Auto Club 400 from the 13th-place starting spot, and should run around there all day. He is currently on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track, but we’re not sure that the #27 Chevrolet is fast enough to get up there this weekend. Paul did have the 8th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, though.

Truex starts a little further back (17th), but that #78 Toyota looked incredibly fast during the practice sessions on Saturday. So fast that if he would have qualified inside the top 5, we probably would have had Truex as a potential race winner. With that being said, you can’t ignore the mid-pack starting spot that Truex has this week, and this #78 team seems to struggle a little more than most when they aren’t racing in ideal conditions. Speed-wise the #78 Toyota is better than the #27 Chevrolet, but we told ourselves we’re not going to use Truex unless he’s a for-sure top 5 pick. We might change our minds before the race but as of now… The Choices: Austin Dillon and Paul Menard

Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Austin Dillon (3) Martin Truex, Jr. (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Paul Menard, (6) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (7) Kasey Kahne, (8) Jamie McMurray, (9) A.J. Allmendinger, (10) Greg Biffle, (11) Trevor Bayne, (12) Casey Mears, (13) Aric Almirola, (14) Danica Patrick, (15) Kyle Larson, (16) Clint Bowyer

Yahoo! C Group Final Rankings for Fontana

Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

We’ll go ahead and say it: if you have Chase Elliott on your roster this weekend, start him. The rookie tends to race better than he practices and qualifies, and he almost went out and won the pole on Friday. I’m quietly expecting a very good race out of him this weekend. Now, unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of starting Elliott because we kept him off our roster this week. Instead we went with Ryan Blaney and Brian Vickers to try and save starts. The #21 Ford qualified 14th on Friday while the #14 Chevrolet ended up a full ten spots further back in 24th. We think Ryan Blaney has the potential to grab a top 10 finish here on Sunday while Brian Vickers hasn’t shown a whole lot this weekend. The #14’s ceiling looks to be right around 18th or so. We’d love to save a Blaney start this week, but it’s simply impossible to trust Brian Vickers. The Choice: Ryan Blaney

Side note: if for some reason you put Chris Buescher on your roster this week, it might be worth giving him a shot. He qualified 16th for Sunday’s Auto Club 400 and wound up finishing 20th in this race one year ago while driving this #34 Ford.

Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Ryan Blaney, (3) Brian Vickers, (4) Chris Buescher, (5) Regan Smith, (6) Brian Scott, (7) Matt DiBenedetto, (8) Landon Cassill, the rest

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FOX Fantasy NASCAR Picks for Auto Club (Fontana)

By
Jordan McAbee
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Matt Kenseth in the garage area
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

When it comes to the FOX Fantasy Auto game, you’re worried about one thing and one thing only: place differential points. If you can maximize those points, you’re going to have a great fantasy week, because the high finish points will come along with them.

Now, when you look at this week’s starting lineup for Sunday’s race at Auto Club Speedway, you’ll notice we have a bunch of great options. There were plenty of drivers that didn’t qualify that high on Friday but should finish at least inside the top 10 when the 2016 Auto Club 400 is over. Unfortunately, quite a few of those drivers are pretty high priced, but it’s not impossible to put together a great roster this week while staying under the salary cap, which was an issue we had last week at Phoenix–partially because Kevin Harvick cost so much!

After the first four races of the season, our Fantasy Racing Online FOX team is sitting in 1,674th place overall with 774 total points. We don’t know how this is as far as percentile, but we can assume that it’s probably pretty good because we’re in 4th place in our private league, which is made up of some pretty competitive Fantasy NASCAR players.

FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for the Auto Club 400

Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/NASCAR via Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson ($12,700) – We’re starting off our roster with the heavy hitter Jimmie Johnson, who is 3rd on the price list this week behind Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. However, he’s a full $800 less than Harvick and $400 less than Kyle Busch, and chances are Jimmie is going to score more points than both of those guys. The reason? Jimmie will start Sunday’s Auto Club 400 from the 19th-place starting position, while Harvick will roll off the grid in 2nd and Kyle Busch in 6th. Now, we’re not sure (at least going into the race) that the #48 Chevrolet is actually better than the #4 Chevrolet or #18 Toyota, but, like we said earlier, it’s all about the place differential points. Johnson won at Atlanta a few weeks ago after qualifying 19th, and Auto Club Speedway is somewhat similar to Atlanta in that they’re both rough race tracks. Johnson is a five-time winner here in Fontana and has posted twelve top 5s in twenty-one career starts here.

Matt Kenseth ($9,100) – Honestly, can you ignore Matt Kenseth at this price? Let’s take a look at some of the drivers that cost more than him this week: Aric Almirola ($9,600), Austin Dillon ($10,000), Ryan Newman ($10,500), Jamie McMurray ($10,500). Add in the fact that Matt Kenseth qualified 20th for this week’s Auto Club 400 and you’re looking at the possibility of gaining a whole bunch of points in FOX Fantasy Auto for not a whole lot of money. Personally, we think that Kenseth should be on all rosters this week. Yeah, he’s had a rough 2016 season thus far–and disappointed a lot of fantasy owners–but it’s noteworthy that Kenseth got his first top 10 of the season last week at Phoenix, a track that he has struggled at over the years. He’s going to break out of his little slump on the intermediate tracks eventually, and it could very well be this Sunday. The #20 Toyota was the fastest car in Happy Hour on Sunday and was 9th on the ten-lap average chart despite making his run later in the session. On top of all that, over the past sixteen Fontana races, Kenseth has posted twelve top 10 results, including three wins (the most recent in 2009). You can’t beat that kind of potential at this price.

Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Chase Elliott ($5,000) – Again, we don’t quite understand the pricing strategy of this game. FOX is starting to move some drivers up, such as Ryan Blaney ($5,100) and Brian Vickers ($5,200), but Chase Elliott remains at the $5,000 price point and we’re not complaining one bit. Remember, with this game, you don’t lose points if a driver finishes worse than he qualifies, so the fact that the #24 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 8th on Sunday isn’t an overly big deal. Also, Chase Elliott tends to run better during the race than he does in practice and qualifying, so he could surprise some on Sunday–although, would a top 5 finish really surprise that many people? Elliott should have a shot at a top 10 on Sunday. In order to make this roster work, we have to have someone on our roster with a $5,000 price tag, and the best choice there (by far) is Chase Elliott.

Brad Keselowski ($11,200) – This isn’t exactly the most ideal pick for us, but at this price point, we have to take Brad Keselowski. In order to afford the final driver on our roster (see below), we have to take BK. And, quite honestly, Keselowski should be a decent Fantasy NASCAR pick here on Sunday. He is the defending winner of this race after all. The #2 Ford will roll off the grid from the 15th-place starting spot on Sunday, which means there’s a good possibility for some decent place differential points, as well as solid finish points as well. The Penske Fords haven’t been overly impressive on the speed charts this season, but they tend to perform when it matters the most: during the race. Just take a look at the Las Vegas race a couple of weeks ago, the one where Brad Keselowski went to victory lane. In Happy Hour at Auto Club Speedway on Saturday, the #2 Ford was 10th in ten-lap average and 12th-fastest on the overall speed chart.

Photo Credit: Jonathan Moore/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($12,000) – Filling out our roster this weekend is NASCAR’s favorite driver, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. This #88 team’s qualifying struggles continued into Fontana this weekend, but that’s great news for fantasy owners in a game like FOX Fantasy Auto. Because of his poor starting spots over the last few races, Earnhardt has been a fantasy gold mine in this game, and it looks like that trend will continue here on Sunday. Junior will be credited with a 27th-place starting spot on Sunday but he has a much better race car than that, and unless he has mechanical issues or gets caught up in a wreck, Dale should end up solidly inside the top 10 when the checkered flag waves on Sunday. He finished 6th in this race one year ago and has ended up there or better in three of the last four races at this track. Junior hasn’t ended up worse than 8th since that disappointing result in the season-opening Daytona 500, and we don’t expect that to change this weekend.

Note: We’d love to put Martin Truex, Jr. on our roster this week, but simply couldn’t fit him in at his price point of $12,100.

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Fontana (Auto Club) NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
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Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/NASCAR via Getty Images

Like most of our Fantasy NASCAR teams, we had a pretty good week at Phoenix in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live thanks to race winner Kevin Harvick. Unfortunately we decided to go with Jimmie Johnson over Dale Earnhardt, Jr., but the #88 Chevrolet performed way better than we ever imagined. Still, it was a solid week in the desert for our team and we now sit in 1,979th place with 1,050 total points through four races. We’re in the 99.15 percentile and forging ahead.

This week we’re at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California for the Auto Club 400. Those 400 miles mean that there are 200 points up for grabs in terms of laps led, as well as 200 points for fastest laps. The great news is that there are a bunch of good drivers that are starting mid-pack or worse on Sunday. The bad news is that most of them are pretty pricey, so we’re going to have figure out which ones will be the best picks.

Don’t forget that the next race is Martinsville, in case any of your drivers currently cost more than what you paid for them. We’ll explain that below.

NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Picks for the Auto Club 400

Jimmie Johnson ($26.50) – We locked Jimmie Johnson in at this price a few weeks ago and we’re sticking with it. Yeah, he’s only went up a quarter since then, but there have been plenty of instances over the past couple of years that we wished we would have had just one more quarter to make that perfect roster. Furthermore, Jimmie Johnson should be an excellent pick on Sunday in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live. First of all, he starts 19th, but the #48 Chevrolet looks good enough for a top 5 finish, so there’s plenty of room there for place differential points. Remember, Jimmie won the race at Atlanta a few weeks ago and he started 19th in that race as well. The Hendrick Motorsports cars are always really good when we come here to Fontana, and JJ has went to victory lane on five separate occasions at his home track.

Martin Truex, Jr. and Kevin Harvick racing at Atlanta 2016
Photo Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

Martin Truex, Jr. ($26.25) – Here’s a great opportunity to use Martin Truex, Jr. because he starts mid-pack in 17th. Initially, when we were watching qualifying, we were a little concerned with this, but after the practice sessions on Saturday were over with, it was almost a good thing that Truex was a little slower on Friday. During Practice #2 on Saturday morning, the #78 Toyota ranked 2nd in both overall speed as well as ten-lap average, and then Truex posted the best ten-lap average later that day in Happy Hour with the 7th-best overall lap. In this race one year ago, Martin ended up finishing 8th after starting 12th, and at Atlanta a few weeks ago, the #78 Toyota was one of the best cars but due to Harvick spinning his tires on the final restart, Truex ended up finishing 7th.

Brian Vickers ($12.75) – We’re just hoping that Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck on Sunday. This isn’t the ideal pick, but if you want to fill your roster with three of the pricier options, you’re going to have to make some sacrifices. Vickers will start Sunday’s Auto Club 400 from the 24th place, and if he’s able to pull off a top 20 finish or so, we will be happy. The #14 Chevrolet has decent speed week in and week out but Vickers has yet to bring it home in one piece. On a positive note–and the reason we’re picking him over someone like Danica Patrick or Casey Mears–Vickers tends to run really well here at Fontana when given the chance. He most recently raced here in the 2014 season for Michael Waltrip Racing and came home 7th. Before that, while with Red Bull Racing, he he had seven finishes of 12th or better in eight races here at Auto Club Speedway. There’s potential there, we’re just not banking on a great race from Brian.

Harvick putting ear radio piece in
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images

Kevin Harvick ($27.75) – Here’s another driver that we locked in at a lower price, as Harvick has gone up a quarter since we put him on our roster. This is the roster spot that we’re not 100% sure about, and Harvick’s high price point gives us a lot of flexibility, as we can afford literally anyone else in this spot. However, as of right now, we’re going with Kevin Harvick for one reason and one reason only: laps led. This #4 team thinks they have a car that can win the race, and when they say that, that typically means that they have the car to beat…which means the most laps led. It’s a huge risk in taking Kevin Harvick in this game because he starts 2nd, but we can only think of one driver that might lead more laps than him, and that’s Carl Edwards (who starts 5th). In this race one year ago, Harvick led 34 laps en route to a 2nd-place finish. If we decide to go with him, we’re going to need that laps led total to go up to about 100.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6.25) – Why not? DiBenedetto got a lot of people’s attention last week at Phoenix when we came home 20th, but before that he finished 29th at Atlanta and 31st at Las Vegas. He started 35th and 34th in those races, respectively, and DiBenedetto will roll off the grid in 33rd for this Sunday’s race at Fontana. The #83 Toyota was just 32nd-fastest on the speed chart in Happy Hour, but they did make it on to the ten-lap average chart, which is a lot more than you can say about these other super-low-priced drivers. DiBenedetto had a better ten-lap average than Danica Patrick in that final session, for what it’s worth, and we need someone to complete this roster, so we’ll go with him.

Race Winner: Carl Edwards
Manufacturer: Toyota

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