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Final Phoenix Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

Kurt Busch putting on helmet
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images
Kurt Busch putting on helmet
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

It’s that time once again: to lock down our final rosters for the race on Sunday. Luckily, this week is pretty predictable, and unless there is some crazy wreck that happens during the Good Sam 500, we’re all going to have a good fantasy week. Remember, this isn’t the race to try and make up points with your fantasy teams. Just go with the flow because chances are, if you go off-course, you’re going to majorly regret it and be even further behind when it’s all said and done. Could you make a great argument for starting some drivers that a lot of other people aren’t going to use? Yes, you could, but that doesn’t mean you should actually pull the trigger. The A Group is loaded this week, and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if all nine drivers in that group ended up finishing inside the top 10 on Sunday.

Our final rankings for each driver grouping in the Yahoo! Auto Racing game for Phoenix can be found below. We arrived at these taking into account the practice results from Saturday along with what happened during qualifying on Friday. Click here for the starting lineup for Sunday’s Good Sam 500(k). Also, be sure to check out ifantasyrace.com for the practice speeds and other great fantasy content. And don’t forget about the Post Practice Predictions where I rank all drivers 1 through 25 for the race on Sunday!

Yahoo! A Group Final Rankings for Phoenix

Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Kevin Harvick should have been on all rosters this week, so the real question was who you were going to pair him with. The best choice would have been Kyle Busch (since he won the pole) and more than 1 in 3 Yahoo! rosters had the #18 Toyota this weekend. As far as our Fantasy Racing Online team, we went with Kurt Busch, who starts 4th. Now, it’s tempting to go with the #41 Chevrolet over his teammate, but that’s not the smart move. Kurt may have been faster than Harvick in practice on Saturday, but let’s not forget that the #41 team tends to fade over a race. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick has ended up 1st or 2nd in seven of the last eight Phoenix races. Both of these drivers should be a threat for the win, but the safer pick is Kevin Harvick. Right now, The Choice: Kevin Harvick

Final A Group Rankings: (1) Kevin Harvick, (2) Kyle Busch, (3) Kurt Busch, (4) Joey Logano, (5) Jimmie Johnson, (6) Brad Keselowski, (7) Denny Hamlin, (8) Matt Kenseth, (9) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Yahoo! B Group Final Rankings for Phoenix

Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

This is where things get interesting, because I don’t think there’s a car in the B Group that can win this weekend. The one with the best chance is Carl Edwards’ #19 Toyota, which is on our roster, but do you really want to waste an Edwards start when there’s just a chance he can win? I know you want to score maximum points every week, but with a game like Yahoo! Auto Racing, you also have to bring in strategy when it comes to allocating your starts. For the record, the drivers that our Fantasy Racing Online team are choosing between are: Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, and Austin Dillon.

In our rankings, we have Carl Edwards as a solid top 10 car. Meanwhile, we have Ryan Newman and Austin Dillon on the outside looking in as just top 15 cars. And with Jamie McMurray, we have him in the later teens despite the fact that he qualified 11th for the Good Sam 500. So let’s take a look at how each driver was in practice, specifically Happy Hour ten-lap averages. Austin Dillon ranked 10th on that chart followed by Ryan Newman in 18th, Jamie McMurray in 22nd, and Carl Edwards in 24th. Now, the #19 Toyota isn’t that bad, in my opinion, and it’s good that Carl actually made a long run. For maximum points, the starts should be Carl Edwards and Austin Dillon, but saving an Edwards start by pairing Dillon with Newman is a possibility, too. Our gut says The Choices Are: Carl Edwards and Austin Dillon

Final B Group Rankings: (1) Carl Edwards, (2) Martin Truex, Jr., (3) Austin Dillon, (4) Ryan Newman, (5) Jamie McMurray, (6) Kyle Larson, (7) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (8) Kasey Kahne, (9) Paul Menard, (10) Aric Almirola, (11) Greg Biffle, (12) A.J. Allmendinger, (13) Casey Mears, (14) Trevor Bayne, (15) Danica Patrick, (16) Clint Bowyer

Yahoo! C Group Final Rankings for Phoenix

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

The clear best choices in this group are Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott–like every other week. However, with this race at Phoenix, the gap between those two and the rest of the C Group drivers is even wider. So, we’d consider this a must-start Blaney or Elliott event. Don’t worry about start saving with the C Group this week because these two might be the only drivers that finish top 20 in Sunday’s Good Sam 500. Now, if you have both Blaney and Elliott on you roster, you have a decision to make. The #21 Ford is the faster car, but the #24 Chevrolet has ran really well here at Phoenix in the past. As far as our Fantasy Racing Online team, we have Chase Elliott and Ty Dillon to choose from, so the choice is pretty easy. The Choice: Chase Elliott

If you really want to dig deep and save the valuable Ryan Blaney/Chase Elliott starts you have, Ty Dillon is probably going to be your choice. However, some other drivers that might surprise on Sunday are David Ragan and Matt DiBenedetto. Obviously there’s some major risk there but both of those guys looked pretty good during the practice sessions at PIR on Saturday.

Final C Group Rankings: (1) Ryan Blaney, (2) Chase Elliott, (3) Ty Dillon, (4) David Ragan, (5) Brian Scott, (6) Matt DiBenedetto, (7) Regan Smith, (8) Landon Cassill, the rest

What does your final Yahoo! roster look like for this week’s race at Phoenix International Raceway? Let us know in the comments section below!

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Phoenix NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks

Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

This week’s strategy for the NASCAR.com Fantasy Live game is going to be similar to last week’s (and our strategy in the FOX Fantasy Auto game): we’re loading up on the “heavy hitters.” We’re scheduled to run 312 laps here at Phoenix International Raceway, which means there’s 156 points up for grabs for both laps led and fastest laps. Now the question becomes who is going to be the driver that will capture the majority of those. There are only a few drivers that are capable of doing that–in our opinion–and it’s possible to put together a NASCAR.com Fantasy Live roster with all three. We’re looking ahead a little bit more, though, and will only be taking two of the three. You can read more about that below.

Last week at Las Vegas, we had a pretty rough result in this game thanks to Matt Kenseth. However, you’re going to have a few of those throughout the 36-race Sprint Cup season, so it’s best to just shake it off and move on. This week at Phoenix is not the week to throw a hail mary and try and make up any lost points. The races here are typically very predictable and there aren’t many surprises, so I wouldn’t recommend getting “cute.”

NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Picks for Phoenix

Kyle Busch ($28.00) – The highest-priced driver in this game is also going to be one of the best choices for the Good Sam 500, even considering the fact that he starts on the pole. That’s a major risk for fantasy owners because you lose points on place differential with Fantasy Live as well. However, I’m willing to take the risk. We know the #18 Toyota has speed, and when you combine that with the fact that Kyle Busch starts on the pole, there’s a good chance he could lead the most laps on Sunday, too. It’s also worth noting that each of the last five Phoenix pole winners went on to finish in the top 5. Rowdy was 5th in ten-lap average in both Practice #2 and Happy Hour on Saturday and should be a threat to win the race on Sunday.

jimmie-johnson-racing-texas
Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/NASCAR via Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson ($26.50) – We have JJ locked in at $26.50 right now and we really don’t want to lose that. Therefore, we’re sticking with the #48 Chevrolet despite the fact that, on the surface, it looks like an incredibly risky move with the potential to lose a bunch of points. I mean, just at the start of the race, Jimmie is going to be giving us NEGATIVE 30-something points because he’s still going to be credited with the 5th-place starting spot thanks to where he qualified before hitting the wall. However, as I said, we’re willing to take that risk to make our cap situation a little better next week. Jimmie has finished 6th or better in four of the last six Phoenix races, including a 5th-place result here last fall. He was 9th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, and the great cars should be able to easily make their way through the field on Sunday no matter where they start.

Kevin Harvick ($27.75) – Harvick’s 18th-place qualifying effort may scare some people away, but don’t fall for that trap. The #4 Chevrolet is, as expected, one of the best cars in the field and will be a threat to win on Sunday. If anything, it’s almost a good thing that Kevin is starting mid-pack because that’s just more fantasy points for us. Harvick has finished 1st or 2nd in all but one of the Phoenix races ran over the last four years and has the car to keep that streak alive this weekend. Harvick ranked 14th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Saturday but you have to realize that he ran that from laps 23 to 32 while the rest of the drivers on that chart ran their long run from laps 1 through 10 or so. Go with Harvick, you won’t regret it.

ty-dillon-phoenix
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Ty Dillon ($12.25) – In order to afford the drivers above, you need to pick one of these mid-priced drivers, and Ty Dillon is probably the best option. If he can keep his fenders clean on Sunday, he might be able to come away with a top 20 finish in the Good Sam 500, and that’s going to be pretty good in this game considering Dillon qualified 28th. Ty was 14th on the overall speed chart in the Saturday morning practice session, and while those track conditions aren’t really like what we’re going to see in the race on Sunday, it was still nice to see some speed out of the #14 Chevrolet.

Joey Gase ($5.00) – In order for this roster to work, you’re going to have to pick between three drivers: Joey Gase, Cole Whitt, and Josh Wise. I decided to take Gase because he’s in the #32 Ford and Jeffrey Earnhardt finished 33rd in this car last week at Las Vegas. You can pick whoever you want, there’s not going to be much differential in terms of fantasy points between these guys. For what it’s worth, Joey Gase is being credited with the last-place starting spot of 39th for the Good Sam 500 Phoenix race.

Race Winner Pick: Kevin Harvick
Manufacturer Pick: Chevrolet

 

Another roster we love: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Ty Dillon, Josh Wise (total salary = $100.00)

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NASCAR Early Week Phoenix Value Betting Picks

Harvick putting ear radio piece in
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images
Harvick putting ear radio piece in
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

Phoenix isn’t really that great of a race from a betting perspective. Kevin Harvick is the heavy favorite for this weekend’s Good Sam 500(k), and for good reason: he’s won five of the last seven races here and has finished 1st or 2nd in seven of the last eight. And, to be honest, pretty much the only reason Harvick didn’t win the fall race here last season is because 1.) He was just trying to ensure he made it to the final round of the Chase, and that was accomplished by finishing 2nd, and 2.) the rain and NASCAR’s quick decision to call the race essentially gave the race to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and the #88 team.

So essentially if you want to hit on a “long shot” bet this week, you’re going to have to hope that something crazy happens. I wouldn’t bank on that. Below are some value betting picks for the Phoenix race this weekend, but honestly I don’t know how far I’d go away from the favorites–specifically Kevin Harvick. Chances are this is going to be my only betting post for Phoenix, although I will come back with my Race Day Betting Picks if Harvick doesn’t look like the absolute favorite after practice and qualifying.

Early Betting Picks for Phoenix

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 6:00 pm ET on March 9, 2016 and came from Bovada.

Kevin Harvick (+300) – Honestly, this is probably the best you’re going to get from Kevin Harvick from here on out, so if you’re going to put some money on him to win in Phoenix, you might as well do it now. I’m expecting the driver of the #4 Chevrolet to be around +250 or lower on Sunday. In case you haven’t been paying attention to NASCAR over the past few years, Harvick is an absolute machine at Phoenix, with an average finish of 1.3 in the last four races here and seven results of 1st or 2nd in the last eight. If you’re not going to put any on Harvick this week, I’d honestly just think about taking a break from the NASCAR betting world until Fontana next week. He’s just that good here at Phoenix.

Kurt Busch Monster Car
Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

Kurt Busch (+1200) – I’m putting a small bet on Kurt Busch this week at 12-to-1 odds, and for a couple of reasons. First, the #41 Chevrolet has been really fast lately, setting on the pole in each of the last two Sprint Cup events. Second, he’s pretty good here at Phoenix, with three straight top 10 finishes, including a 5th-place run in this race one year ago. Kurt Busch is one of those guys that is going to win when you least expect it, and if anyone other than Kevin Harvick wins here in the desert on Sunday I’ll be more than surprised. I do like Kurt at these odds, though, as a sort of long shot pick.

That’s all I really have this week. None of the other drivers look too attractive from a betting perspective. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is sitting at (+1200) and may get some action from me, but that’s about it. I think it’s going to be borderline impossible to beat Kevin Harvick this week, but you never know, he could have a mechanical issue or wreck.

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Phoenix Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Strategy Picks

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

Ouch. That’s all I have to say about the Las Vegas race. Not only did Matt Kenseth ruin a bunch of Fantasy NASCAR rosters, but the broken axle on Brian Vickers’ car did as well. Like I always say, though, you just have to move on when it comes to these fantasy racing games we play. Luckily for us, we’ve got a race at Phoenix up next, which is a track that tends to be incredibly predictable. You probably won’t see much change from the favorites early on in the week to the favorites on race day.

Being a predictable race is good in one aspect, but at the same time it doesn’t allow for us to gain a whole lot of points on the competition. If you had a bad week at Las Vegas, keep this in mind: you don’t need to make up all of the lost points right away! Don’t try to get cute with your picks this week. There are certain tracks where that is possible, but not Phoenix. Just go with who’s good in the desert and move on to the next race.

Yahoo! A Group Picks for Phoenix

Kevin Harvick (8 starts remaining) – This isn’t even an option. If you don’t have Kevin Harvick on your Yahoo! this week, please stop wasting your time with this fantasy game and do something else. The word “dominant” doesn’t even begin to describe Kevin Harvick at Phoenix. He’s better than any other driver even thought about being here. He has won five of the last seven events here, and should have won last fall, too. He finished 2nd that race to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. thanks to the rain. Also, Harvick was fighting for his Chase life and was able to get to the final round on points, so I’d venture to guess that he wasn’t going as hard as he could that day. Harvick has led more laps in his last four Phoenix starts than any driver has led in their career at this track (except Jimmie Johnson).

Joey Logano (9 starts remaining) – Honestly, with this roster spot I’m just going for some qualifying bonus points. It would take Kevin Harvick breaking his leg for me not to start him at Phoenix, and even then I would still probably roll with him. Joey Logano is a great option for qualifying points at most tracks and Phoenix is no exception. He has started 4th or better in four of the last five races here at Phoenix, and in all five of those events he has finished inside the top 10. He came home 3rd in the fall race here last season, which was a career-best for Joey. His teammate Brad Keselowski has also qualified very well here at Phoenix as of late, and don’t forget about Kurt Busch, who has been a qualifying machine as of late. As of right now I’m leaning Logano but I might go with Kurt.

Yahoo! B Group Picks for Phoenix

Austin Dillon taking off his helmet
Photo Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

Austin Dillon (8 starts remaining) – Run ’em while they’re hot! Austin Dillon capped off a really strong weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 5th-place finish on Sunday, giving him an average finish of 8.3 through the first three races of the 2016 Sprint Cup season. Getting that kind of value out of a B Group driver is incredible, and we should continue trying to capitalize on it until Austin fizzles out. In this Phoenix race last season, Dillon posted a career-best 15th-place finish, and I’d say he’s poised to post another career-best here on Sunday. I missed out on taking Austin Dillon last weekend but I won’t make the same mistake twice.

Ryan Newman (8 starts remaining) – I didn’t quite get the finish I wanted out of Ryan Newman at Las Vegas, but I’ll take a 13th-place start save most of the time. Now we’re at Phoenix, which is a flat track that really plays into The Rocketman’s strengths. In the last five races in the desert, Newman has never ended up worse than 11th, and he has finished inside that mark in ten of the last twelve overall. Newman ran 3rd in this race one year ago and if we could get another top 5 effort out of him this weekend I would jump for joy.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – Yeah, I’m digging deep here, but I like the other B Group guys I have so I don’t feel like this is too big of a risk. The sleeper pick of the week for Phoenix is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. I really like what this team is doing in 2016 and, as I said before, it’s best to run these mid-tier guys while they’re hot. Stenhouse came home 10th a couple of weeks ago at Atlanta and then followed that up with a solid 12th-place running at Las Vegas. Now we’re at Phoenix where he has been incredibly consistent for much of his Sprint Cup career; in six career starts here, Stenhouse has finished between 12th and 18th in all but one of them. I remember back when Ricky was in the Nationwide Series he really liked the flat tracks. The Roush-Fenway Fords look to have improved by quite a bit from one year ago, so it will be interesting to see how they look at Phoenix this weekend.

Photo Credit: Jonathan Moore/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Jonathan Moore/Getty Images

Jamie McMurray (9 starts remaining) – Phoenix is one of those tracks that typically allows us to run some drivers in the B Group other than the “heavy hitters,” and I’m perfectly okay with that. Jamie McMurray had a great run in this race last year, starting 2nd and finishing 3rd, and he followed that up with a 15th-place run in the fall. That makes it four straight finishes of 15th or better for McMurray in the desert, and if I can get that kind of finish while saving a Truex or Edwards start, I’m okay with it.

Note: Martin Truex, Jr. will be without crew chief Cole Pearn this weekend due to suspension, and he has posted just two top 10 finishes in his last seven starts at Phoenix. This is an excellent time to give the ‘ol #78 Toyota a break and go with some other drivers. As you can see, I’m also leaving Carl Edwards off, who has just one top 10 finish in the last five Phoenix races.

Yahoo! C Group Picks for Phoenix

Man, Chase Elliott and Brian Vickers really killed a lot of rosters at Las Vegas–mine included. Both of them had good runs going (more so Elliott), too. Oh, well. It’s hard to bet against the rookies right now, especially since Ryan Blaney came home 6th at Las Vegas last week. The downside is that neither Elliott or Blaney has made a Sprint Cup start here at Phoenix, although the former ended up 7th in both Xfinity races here last season. I’m going for max points this week so right now I’m leaning toward putting both Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney on my Yahoo! roster in the C Group.

Please share your picks for Phoenix in the comments below!

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Race Recap: Keselowski Takes Windy Vegas, Kenseth Struggles Continue

Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

There’s nothing wrong with Penske.

After the #2 and #22 Fords of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano struggled at Atlanta last weekend, many of those in the Fantasy NASCAR world were concerned about the possibility of the Penske teams struggling with this new rules package that the Sprint Cup cars have adapted in 2016.

Any possibility of that went out the window in Las Vegas on Sunday, though, as Keselowski and Logano finished 1-2 in the Kobalt 400. It was Keselowski’s first Sprint Cup win in nearly a year, the last coming at Auto Club Speedway in March of 2015.

A Race to Remember

This week’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will be one that race goers (and viewers) will remember for quite a while. The wind wreaked havoc for the Sprint Cup teams all day, with gusts reaching 45+ mph. There was also a brief sand storm during the second half of the event that postponed the racing for a few minutes.

Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images

In the end, we saw strategy play an important role in the outcome of the race for the second week in a row. During the final round of pit stops, Keselowski and Logano decided to stay out while almost the entire rest of the field pitted. Austin Dillon, who was mired back in the teens at the time, also decided to gamble and stay out.

It was a move that worked out for all three teams, with Keselowski grabbing the biggest jackpot. As mentioned before, Joey Logano came home 2nd while Austin Dillon rounded out the top 5 in 5th. Jimmie Johnson, who won last week, led the most laps in the Kobalt 400 and ended up 3rd, barely edging out hometown driver Kyle Busch at the start/finish line.

Kenseth Continues to Struggle

It was another race in which Matt Kenseth had a top 5 car but didn’t get the finish he deserved. In the final stages of Sunday’s Kobalt 400, Kenseth–who was running inside the top 5 for most of the day–got loose in the corner and nearly spun. He eventually saved it, but decreased in speed so much that those behind him had nowhere to go, specifically Chase Elliott, who ran into the back of the #20 Toyota, ending the day for both of those cars. Elliott was once again having a top 10 run before that incident.

Matt Kenseth in the garage area
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

It’s been a frustrating start to the season for the #20 team, as well as the fantasy owners of Matt Kenseth. Through three 2016 races, Kenseth’s best finish has been 14th despite the fact that he has led laps in all of the events thus far. He was considered by many as one of the favorites to win each of the last two weeks, and not even being able to muster a top 10 finish so far has to be having an effect on the morale of the team.

And it’s not looking much better. Next week we go to Phoenix International Raceway, a track where Matt Kenseth has just two top 10s in his last nine starts. It’s too early in the season to be overly concerned about this #20 team, but it puts Fantasy NASCAR players in a peculiar position: typically the best move is to pick the fastest cars, but how much can you trust Matt Kenseth right now?

After Phoenix, we head out to Auto Club Speedway, a track where Kenseth has went to victory lane three times throughout his Sprint Cup career. This #20 team desperately needs a good run to turn their mojo around, but that likely won’t be possible until week 5 of the 2016 season.

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