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Las Vegas Race Day NASCAR Betting Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kurt Busch Monster Car
Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Kurt Busch Monster Car
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

It’s been an interesting weekend out in Sin City. The cars were on track a lot this week, including two test sessions on Thursday, a practice before qualifying on Friday, and then two more practice sessions on Saturday to get ready for the Kobalt 400 on Sunday. The reason I say it’s interesting is because it looks like there’s really only three of four drivers that have a real shot at winning. True, you never know how these races are going to play out, but going into the race there’s a major drop off after the four fastest. Be sure to check out my full top 25 Post Practice Predictions for this week’s race over at ifantasyrace.

Jimmie Johnson (+400) jumped up to the race day favorite for the Sprint Cup race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, followed closely by Kevin Harvick (+425) and then hometown driver Kyle Busch at +600.

Race Day Betting Picks for Las Vegas

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:45 am ET on March 6, 2016 and came from Bovada.

Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

BET OF THE DAY: Matt Kenseth (+700) – There are many reasons to like Matt Kenseth in the Kobalt 400 on Sunday. First, he has a really good race car. He qualified 3rd–which has historically been a good sign for him–and the team said the car was “close” right off the truck–which has historically been a bad sign for the competition. Any time that Kenseth has speed and can devote practice time to getting the car comfortable, he tends to have a car that is capable of winning. The #20 Toyota was inside the top 5 in most ten-lap average charts this week, including ranking 2nd in Test Session #2, 4th in Practice #2 on Saturday morning, and 4th in Happy Hour as well. My pick to win this race is Matt Kenseth and I jumped all over him at 7-to-1 odds, just like I did with Jimmie Johnson last weekend. Let’s hope we get the same result.

Jimmie Johnson (+400) – Earlier in the week, you could have gotten 5.25-to-1 odds with Jimmie Johnson. Now that it’s race day, those odds are down to 4-to-1. Vegas knows what’s up. Most people in the garage are looking at the #48 Chevrolet as the car to beat on Sunday, and who can blame them? Johnson had some awesome practice sessions here on Saturday plus he just won last week in Atlanta. And to top it all off, he’s a four-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, leading all drivers. I really think this race is going to come down to Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth, and it might take some strategy for the latter to get to victory lane. These two are definitely the class of the field.

SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch (+1100) – Here’s an interesting pick. Kurt Busch remains at the 11-to-1 odds that he started at earlier in the week, but I’m a lot more confident in him now that I was then. I had Kurt ranked 16th going into the race weekend and now I have him inside the top 5. That skyrocketing in ranking doesn’t happen very often. But the fact of the matter is that the #41 Chevrolet probably has the most speed in the garage, and now it’s up to the team and driver to put a whole race together–something that is definitely not their strong suit. One thing that’s on their side is that this Las Vegas race is only 400 miles. Kurt starts on the pole and showed plenty of speed on Saturday, capping it off with a 3rd-place rank on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. The bad news is that, despite the fact that this is his home track, Kurt has been terrible at Las Vegas, with just one top 10 finish in his last nine starts here. But hey, that’s why he’s a sleeper pick.

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FOX Fantasy NASCAR Picks for Las Vegas

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Matt Kenseth in the garage area
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
Matt Kenseth in the garage area
Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

After a mediocre Daytona 500 in FOX Fantasy Auto Racing, we bounced back nicely at Atlanta with 249 points. Now we have to keep it going with the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway! Now, I know the way that you dominate this FOX game is by picking rivers who are going to get a bunch of place differential points, but there are occasionally some exceptions–as we will see this week. Typically I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to the starting lineup when it comes to intermediate tracks, but for whatever reason it seems like it makes a bit of a difference here at Las Vegas.

There’s also some really good cars starting up front this week. In case you want a refresher on how the Sprint Cup cars will line up on Sunday, click here for Friday’s qualifying results. Keep in mind that Carl Edwards will have to start from the back but he is still going to be credited with his 24th-place starting spot in this FOX game. That’s noteworthy because he’s not going to get points for the cars he passes between 24th and 29th.

FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for Las Vegas

Matt Kenseth ($10,100) – I know that we should be picking the best drivers that are starting a little bit further back, but Matt Kenseth at this price point is simply too hard to pass up. The #20 Toyota could easily win this race on Sunday and Kenseth is just the 13th-highest priced driver. Getting a potential win at that price point is an incredible value. Remember, the #20 Toyota was one of the best cars at Atlanta last weekend up until they got black flagged, and that speed has definitely carried over here to Las Vegas. Kenseth will roll off the grid 3rd on Sunday and has consistently been one of the fastest cars in the test sessions and practices since Thursday. Matt had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Test Session #2, ranked 4th on that chart in Practice #2, and then 4th in Happy Hour as well. I think all rosters need to start out with Kenseth and then build from there. Remember, you don’t lose points for place differential, only gain.

Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson ($11,900) – Last week’s race winner looks to have another potentially winning race car this weekend, so we’re going to stick with Jimmie Johnson, even at this price point. He will start 11th for the Kobalt 400, which leaves some room for place differential points as well. The #48 Chevrolet has been consistently one of the fastest cars all week and might be even stronger this week than it was last. Johnson had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday and wound up 2nd on that chart in Happy Hour. He also had the best ten-lap average in Test Session #2 on Thursday, which is the one test that was held in the middle of the day. Jimmie is a four-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and has ended up finishing 6th or better in four of the last six events here. Remember, Johnson arguably had the best car here at Las Vegas last season before blowing a tire and killing the car.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($12,100) – At this point, we can either go with two of the higher “middle-tier” FOX drivers, or take one of the lower, mid-range drivers and pick up another high-priced driver. Initially I had Ryan Newman and Carl Edwards in these final two roster spots, and I still might go back to that, but I think we’re going to get another top 5 run out of Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and I want those points along with the place differential points he’s going to get from starting 20th. Junior almost won the race at Atlanta one week ago and now we’re at Las Vegas, a track where he runs even better at; nobody has ran better than Earnhardt here in Sin City over the last two years (his average driver rating of 122.6 is incredible) and he has two top 5 finishes to show for it. Junior is also on a five-race streak of top 10 results here at Vegas and should be able to make it six in a row on Sunday. This team finally found some speed late in Happy Hour and I expect the #88 Chevrolet to be more and more solid as the day goes on on Sunday.

Austin Dillon taking off his helmet
Photo Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

Austin Dillon ($8,700) – Another reason I decided to go this route was because Austin Dillon has a really, really good race car. I don’t think I’ve ever seen him look this good since he joined NASCAR’s top series. And since we don’t lose points for place differential in FOX Fantasy Auto Racing, it makes it a lot more reasonable to take a shot with someone like Austin, who is starting up front (5th) on Sunday. The #3 Chevrolet was near the top of the ten-lap average chart in virtually all testing and practice sessions this week, and the team thought the car was so good in Happy Hour that they ended their practicing 20 minutes early. We’re not going to get a lot of points out of Austin Dillon on Sunday (I expect him to finish between 10th and 15th) but it’s worth putting him on the roster simply because of the upside that is there–plus it allows us to afford Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Brian Vickers ($5,000) – As usual, we’re going to have a low-priced driver to afford the rest of our roster. In my mind, the choice comes down to Brian Vickers or Chase Elliott. Both cost the same amount of money at $5,000. Now, right now I’m leaning toward Brian Vickers, although you could definitely make the case for Chase as well–especially after his very solid top 10 finish at Atlanta last week. The reason I’m leaning toward Vickers is because he starts a little further back than Chase, and should get a few extra points for place differential. I think both of these drivers have the potential for a top 15 finish, although it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them snuck into the top 10 (probably Chase). I really like how Vickers has performed here at Las Vegas over his career, though; in his last five starts at this track, Brian has ended up 15th or better in four of them. Like I said, you can go either way on this one. The only way there’s going to be a major difference between these two is if one of them wrecks.

Which drivers are on your roster for Las Vegas? Let me know in the comments section below!

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Final Las Vegas Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Rankings

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Austin Dillon taking off his helmet
Photo Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images
Austin Dillon taking off his helmet
Photo Credit: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

It was nice to get a solid 339 point week in Atlanta last Sunday, and now we’re on to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this week for the Kobalt 400, which in theory should allow us to take some gambles with our Fantasy NASCAR rosters (ya know, since it’s Vegas). In reality, though, we typically see the same drivers end up toward the front here at LVMS. The good news is that lately a couple of those drivers have been some mid-tier options, which means we have plenty of “sleepers” to consider on Sunday. My initial Yahoo! strategy picks were posted earlier this week, and in case you missed that article you can view it here. Now we just have to decide on which drivers we’re going to start for the Kobalt 400.

Below you will find my final rankings for each driver grouping in the Yahoo! Auto Racing game for Las Vegas. I arrived at these by analyzing the test session results from Thursday as well as how the cars looked during practice on Saturday. Also, it’s somewhat important where you start at Las Vegas–well, at least more important than it was at Atlanta a week ago. Click here for Sunday’s starting lineup. Don’t forget to check out ifantasyrace.com for practice speeds and other great fantasy content. Over there you will also find my full Post Practice Predictions where I rank the top 25 drivers heading into Sunday!

Yahoo! A Group Final Rankings for Las Vegas

Matt Kenseth smiling in garage
Photo Credit: Jared C. Tilton/NASCAR via Getty Images

The Fantasy Racing Online team went with Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in the A Group this weekend, as I wanted to prevent myself from using another Kevin Harvick start. With Phoenix coming up next week, it’s a virtual guarantee that he’s going to make my Yahoo! roster, and he’s probably going to get the start as well. Anyway, let’s look at Kenseth vs. Junior. The starting position advantage goes to Kenseth (3rd to Junior’s 20th) and the #20 Toyota looked better than the #88 Chevorolet most of the time when the cars were on track this week. Most importantly, Kenseth looked better on the long runs, posting the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Test Session #2, 4th-best in Practice #2, and 4th-best in Happy Hour. The Choice: Matt Kenseth

Final A Group Rankings: (1) Matt Kenseth, (2) Jimmie Johnson, (3) Kevin Harvick, (4) Kurt Busch, (5) Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (6) Joey Logano, (7) Brad Keselowski, (8) Kyle Busch, (9) Denny Hamlin,

Yahoo! B Group Final Rankings for Las Vegas

Here’s where things get tricky. Our four choices available in the B Group are Carl Edwards, Martin Truex, Jr., Ryan Newman, and Paul Menard. We have 8 starts left with Edwards and Truex and 9 left with Newman and Menard. Looking at the race weekend thus far, Edwards was doing well until he blew a tire in qualifying and wrecked his primary car. He will have to start from the rear of the field on Sunday, and while this isn’t a doom sentence, it isn’t ideal for fantasy owners. Yes, we saw Kyle Busch come from the back of the pack to finish 3rd last week at Atlanta, but that was Kyle Busch. Carl Edwards isn’t that aggressive. Also, we’re only racing 400 miles this week compared to 500 miles last week. Overall, the #19 Toyota looks like a top 10 car, but not a top 5.

Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Matt Hazlett/Getty Images

Personally, I want to save Edwards starts for finishes closer to the latter, so he’s going to stay on the bench this week. Now that leaves narrowing the final three down to two. The clear start saving options are Ryan Newman and Paul Menard. Newman has finished 7th or better in four of the last five Las Vegas races and Menard 12th or better in each of the last five. Getting results like that from those two would be incredible, but I don’t want to miss out on a possible Truex win. So the question becomes, how good is the #78 Toyota this weekend? I think they have a top 10 car but that’s about it, and as I mentioned with Edwards, I want top 5 finishes out of these top B Group drivers. It’s a difficult decision and I’m still on the fence but as of now, the Choices: Ryan Newman and Paul Menard

Final B Group Rankings: (1) Martin Truex, Jr., (2) Austin Dillon, (3) Ryan Newman (4) Carl Edwards, (5) Paul Menard, (6) Kasey Kahne, (7) Kyle Larson, (8) A.J. Allmendinger, (9) Casey Mears, (10) Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., (11) Danica Patrick, (12) Jamie McMurray, (13) Greg Biffle, (14) Aric Almirola, (15) Greg Biffle, (16) Clint Bowyer

Yahoo! C Group Final Rankings for Las Vegas

CampingWorld.com 500 - Qualifying
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

I really think you have to go with the driver of the #14 Chevrolet in the C Group for the time being. At the minimum he should be on your roster. I think we need to save Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott until later on in the season, unless of course they have a solid top 10 run like the latter did at Atlanta last week. I have Elliott and Brian Vickers on my Yahoo! roster this weekend, and while I do think that Chase Elliott is poised to have another solid run, I think Vickers is going to run well on Sunday as well. He probably should have qualified better than he did but starting 19th isn’t terrible. Also, Vickers has finished inside the top 15 in four of his last five starts at this track. I’m sticking with my start save strategy for now. The Choice: Brian Vickers

Final C Group Rankings: (1) Chase Elliott, (2) Brian Vickers, (3) Ryan Blaney, (4) Brian Scott, (5) Chris Buescher, (6) Landon Cassill, (7) Regan Smith (8) the rest

What does your final Yahoo! roster look like for Las Vegas? Let us know in the comments section below!

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Las Vegas NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Jimmie Johnson and Casey Mears
Jimmie Johnson and Casey Mears
Photo Credit: Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

By Jordan McAbee

A nice week at Atlanta last weekend (301 total points) put our Fantasy Racing Online team into the 99th percentile among all NASCAR.com Fantasy Live teams, so now we just have to find a way to stay there. As mentioned before, part of being successful in this game is locking in drivers at lower price points so you can keep them from week to week and allow for a little more wiggle room in cap space. Both Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. went up $0.25 after the Atlanta race, which means if we keep them (which is the plan) we have an extra $0.50 to work with. It’s not a lot but it’s something.

We’re set to run 267 laps (400 miles) for the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas on Sunday, which means there’s going to be roughly 133.5 bonus points available for both laps led and fastest laps. While I typically try to pick drivers that start further back to capitalize on the place differential points, I think we’re going to see drivers that start up front lead the most laps, so you should take that into consideration. And with the fact that we’re in Las Vegas, I’m in a gambling mood, so let’s get to the picks!

NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Picks for Las Vegas

Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($26.75) – I’m sticking with Junior this week for a couple of reasons. One, he starts mid-pack, so there’s some potential for about 15 or 20 place differential points. Also, he’s been the best driver here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway over the last two years. Not only does he have the best average finish in those two races (3.0) but also the best average driver rating (122.6). Earnhardt is also on a five-race streak of top 10s here in Sin City, so there’s that. But enough about the past, let’s talk about this weekend. The #88 Chevrolet wasn’t great on Friday and really struggled in the first practice session on Saturday. However, by the time Happy Hour rolled around, the team made wholesale changes and Junior jumped up to 7th on the speed chart. His ten-lap average wasn’t as good as I would like (19th), but this #88 team works closely with the #48 crew and the latter may be the team to be on Sunday. The #88 guys have some work to do if they want to finish 2nd again this week, but this team is one of the best at making adjustments during the race and a top 5 is well within reach.

 

Jimmie Johnson ($26.50) – The garage area is pointing to this #48 Chevrolet for Sunday, and I don’t blame them. Not only is Jimmie Johnson coming off of the win at Atlanta, but his car has been really fast here in Sin City as well. In the second test session on Thursday, which was ran during the middle of the day, Jimmie had the best ten-lap average, and he also ranked P1 on that chart in Practice #2 on Saturday morning as well. In Happy Hour, Jimmie was 2nd in ten-lap average behind Austin Dillon. So when you’re looking at those averages, JJ has pretty much dominated all weekend. That tends to be bad news for the competition. Johnson is a four-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and could get a fifth here on Sunday. His starting position of 11th is nice as well, as we’ll be able to grab some place differential points.

Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

Matt Kenseth ($26.00) – Here’s my pick to win the Kobalt 400 on Sunday, and I believe that Matt Kenseth will lead the most laps as well. Therefore, I’m not overly concerned about picking the driver that is starting from 3rd. However, there is a little voice in the back of my head saying “stay away” because of this team’s stupid handling of the penalty last week at Atlanta, but like I always say, you have to let things go when it comes to Fantasy NASCAR. Remember, this #20 Toyota was arguably the car to beat last week until that penalty happened–and I’m expecting a similar type of run here in Vegas. Kenseth was constantly in the top 5 in ten-lap average during the testing and practice sessions this week and that’s all I need to know that he has a good car. When they unloaded this week, the car was close to where it needed to be, and that tends to mean Kenseth will be a great pick during the race. He’s a three-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and has ended up 11th or better in five of the last six events here.

Casey Mears ($12.75) – Here’s my gamble of the week…Casey Mears. Initially I had Ryan Newman and Chase Elliott in this roster spot and instead of Matt Kenseth above, but I decided against that and to roll the dice here in Las Vegas. There’s a lot of upside with Casey Mears right now and I’m hoping to take advantage of it. First, he had a good run at Atlanta last weekend and came home 14th. He qualified 22nd for this week’s race at Las Vegas, which means there’s not going to be a whole lot of damage done (points-wise) if he wrecks or blows up or something. But what I like the most is that the #13 Chevrolet actually has quite a bit of speed. Mears posted the 3rd-fastest lap in Practice #2 on Saturday and was 3rd on the ten-lap average chart as well. He then ranked 8th-fastest overall in Happy Hour and had the 10th-best ten-lap average. If Casey Mears can come away with another top 15 finish in Sin City on Sunday, I’ll be jumping for joy.

Chris Buescher ($7.50) – I typically have Landon Cassill in this spot, but that #38 team really disappointed me last week, so I’m moving over to Chris Buescher. At Atlanta, Buescher brought his car home 28th, and I’ll be satisfied with anything close to that here in Las Vegas on Sunday. He starts 25th, which is a little bit higher than I would like, but the #34 Ford has looked the fastest among these lower drivers all weekend long. I might switch him out with Michael Annett simply because Annett starts further back, but as of now I’m going Buescher. With your lowest priced driver your strategy should really be to lose the least amount of points as possible. Any gain is just a bonus.

Race Winner Pick: Matt Kenseth
Manufacturer Pick: Chevrolet

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NASCAR Early Week Las Vegas Value Betting Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Photo Credit: Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

carl-edwards-loudon-2015By Jordan McAbee

Well, it’s always good to start out the new NASCAR season on a good note. We’re now 2-for-2 on hitting winners heading into the third race of the season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. These two wins allow for a little room to play with when it comes to taking some long shot bets. However, there should only be a few drivers who have a legitimate change with Sunday’s race in Sin City, and week #4 at Phoenix will probably have less contenders. Still, let’s take a look at some of the early week value picks that can be had.

Please note that I typically don’t mess with the favorites this early in the week, which is why they’re rarely mentioned in this post. Once practice and qualifying are finished, I narrow down my list of potential winners and then re-evaluate the favorites, so be sure to check for my Race Day Picks post on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick is once again the favorite heading into the race weekend at +425, followed by Jimmie Johnson at +525, and then Joey Logano +600.

Early Betting Picks for Las Vegas

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 5:00 pm ET on March 2, 2016 and came from Bovada.

Carl Edwards (+1100) – There are three drivers that are right in this middle range this week that I think we need to lock in while we can, and it all starts with Carl Edwards. Honestly, I think on race day he’s going to be closer to +800, so I’m hopping all over these 11-to-1 odds now. Carl is a two-time winner here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with wins coming back in 2011 and in 2008. He has the 4th-best average finish (12.2) among all active drivers at this track and Edwards has came home 5th or better in four of his last five starts here. Need I say more? The Gibbs Toyotas love this new low downforce package and Carl Edwards loves Las Vegas. The stars are lining up for another top 5 race out of the #19 Toyota on Sunday, and maybe even a win.

Sylvania 300 - PracticeDale Earnhardt, Jr. (+1200) – The #88 Chevrolet wasn’t the 2nd-best car at Atlanta last weekend, but that’s where it finished–and that’s all that matters in the NASCAR world. Also, like Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has been awesome here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, with top 5s in both races here over the last two seasons, and a four-race streak of top 10s to go along with it. If Junior has a car similar to what he had at Atlanta, we could definitely see him get to victory lane in Sin City on Sunday. He has never won here (yet) but he does have three 2nd-place finishes to his credit–the most recent coming in 2014.

Martin Truex, Jr. (+1200) – How can you not like Truex this week? He arguably had the 2nd-best car at Atlanta, he showed in 2015 that he’s one of the best drivers at all of the intermediate race tracks, and he’s off to a blazing fast start in 2016. I’m honestly pleasantly surprised that the #78 Toyota is starting out at 12-to-1 odds this week considering Truex finished 2nd in last year’s race at Las Vegas. He’s going to be one of those drivers this season that finally gets to victory lane when it’s least expected. Will that be this weekend?

Be sure to come back on Sunday for our Race Day Betting Picks for the Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That’s when we’ll really nail down the best bets for your NASCAR weekend!

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