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FOX Fantasy NASCAR Picks for Atlanta

By
Jordan McAbee
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Kyle Busch racing to win at Kentucky
Photo Credit: Sean Gardner/NASCAR via Getty Images

Kyle Busch racing to win at KentuckyBy Jordan McAbee

The FOX Fantasy Auto Racing game is one that is similar to many others yet has it’s own twist. You have to assemble a roster of 5 drivers while staying underneath a salary cap, and you earn points based on their finish. However, you also earn points based on place differential. This means that that if a driver starts 21st and finishes 11th, he or she receives an additional 10 points that week because he or she improved 10 positions. This is somewhat like NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, except for the fact that you don’t lose points if a driver finishes lower than he or she starts. This is a major point to consider. You also only get one bonus point per lap led and one bonus points for the most laps led with FOX, and that’s it. Having success in this game is pretty much picking the drivers that start further back yet will probably finish up front. That should be your strategy every week, and that’s how you’re going to win. Now, let’s get to the best choices for Atlanta.

FOX Fantasy Auto Picks for Atlanta

Kyle Busch ($11,000) – Here’s your must pick driver of the week–at least for the FOX Fantasy Auto game. For some reason, Kyle Busch is only the 10th-highest-priced driver for Atlanta, which means there’s a bunch of potential points there for not an incredibly large amount of money. Add in the fact that Rowdy is starting at the back of the field due to his qualifying time being disallowed, and you have the driver that should be on every single FOX roster on Sunday. Seriously. If you don’t understand why, you’re probably new to this game. The Fox Fantasy Auto Racing league is all about place differential points, and trust me, Kyle Busch isn’t going to finish anywhere near the back of the pack on Sunday (unless, of course, he wrecks or something). The fact that he should have won the pole for Sunday’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 shows that the #18 Toyota is fast enough to win this race. Kyle has finished 6th or better in three of his last five races at Atlanta and that includes his win here in 2013. Put Kyle Busch on your FOX roster and start building around that #18 car. You can thank me later.

johnson-burnout-win-doverJimmie Johnson ($11,400) – Remember, you don’t get many points for the most laps led, so I think putting someone like Kevin Harvick in this spot isn’t the right choice. I thought about it, but decided on the cheaper option of Jimmie Johnson. Also, “Six Time” will be starting the QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 from the 19th-place starting spot, so there’s the potential to pick up quite a few bonus points for place differential there. Finally, I thought the #48 Chevrolet was one of the best cars on the track during Saturday’s Happy Hour practice session, and Jimmie Johnson is my pick to win on Sunday. Why wouldn’t you put the potential race winner on your roster, especially considering he’s just the 6th-highest-priced driver for the week? Exactly.

Matt Kenseth ($10,800) – Our third “heavy hitter” driver of the weekend is Matt Kenseth, who ran the most laps in Happy Hour of all drivers. Typically this is something that Matt only does when he is very happy with his race car, so that might not be very good news for the competition. Kenseth has never won here at Atlanta but it’s only a matter of time before he gets to victory lane. He currently has back-to-back top 5 finishes at this track and hasn’t finished worse than 13th here since way back in the 2005 season. When you consider all of that with the fact that the Gibbs Toyotas have been running super fast thus far in 2016, you have a great pick in Matt Kenseth–and at a great price point as well.

Chase Elliott ($5,000) – Our low-priced driver of the week (you always need one) is going to be the rookie Chase Elliott. I don’t see many great picks under $7,000 besides him and Ryan Blaney. I’m expecting both of these rookies to have similar runs on Sunday, and they will both start the QuikTrip Folds of Honor from the 12th row. I’m going with Chase Elliott simply because he looked better in practice on Saturday and I trust the Hendrick Motorsports equipment (and team) more than I do that of the Wood Brothers. Flip on coin on who you want to pick between these two, they should both score a similar amount of points. And for those wondering, I see no other driver in this price range worth considering for Atlanta. Maybe Brian Scott just because he starts in the top 10 (remember you don’t lose points based on place differential) and the Richard keselowski-darlingtonPetty Motorsports Fords have actually been pretty decent here at Atlanta recently.

Brad Keselowski ($11,100) – Here’s where things get a little tricky. We have $11,800 worth of cap space left with this pick, which is $100 short of grabbing Denny Hamlin. If we were able to make that work, I would in a heartbeat. I won’t give up Kyle Busch or Jimmie Johnson on this team, so that means the only way we could get Denny Hamlin on here is if we dropped Matt Kenseth for someone else (because there’s no salaried drivers lower than Chase Elliott). Dropping the #20 Toyota would simply be a foolish move. Of the drivers that are available for us to pick, the only one that has top 5 potential is Kurt Busch, but he starts on the pole and that throws place differential points out the window. So we’re looking at a max points range from Kurt of about 35 points on Sunday. So I’m going to take my chances here with Brad Keselowski, who struggled quite a bit on Saturday in Happy Hour practice. However, the #2 team seemed to improve as Saturday went on, and Keselowski starts 17th, so if he makes it to 11th or so we’ll have a decent amount of points out of him. Other popular options here include Carl Edwards, but he starts 7th, as well as Kyle Larson who qualified 20th. Larson hated his car on Sunday, though, and that’s not a risk I want to take.

Who’s on your roster for Atlanta? Let me know in the comments section below!

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NASCAR Early Week Atlanta Value Betting Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Kurt Busch putting on helmet
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/NASCAR via Getty Images

Kurt Busch putting on helmetBy Jordan McAbee

It’s always nice to start off the season with a win, and to those of you who also bet on Denny Hamlin in the Daytona 500 last weekend: congratulations. Now we’re getting into the more predictable stretch of races so it’s not incredibly likely that we’re going to get too many more winners at +1200 or better for a while. You never know, though. This weekend’s QuikTrip Folds of Honor 500 will be at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a worn-out 1.5-mile race track where the fastest line is running right up against the wall. This will also be the first race of 2016 using the new aero rules package. Last year, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas really shined with this low downforce package, and we saw last weekend that they have plenty of horsepower to start off the 2016 campaign. In case you missed it, you can read my article about how this is Toyota’s year to shine by clicking here.

Kevin Harvick is the favorite heading into the race weekend at +450. Joey Logano follows him at +550, and then Jimmie Johnson is 3rd at +650.

Early Betting Picks for Atlanta

The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 7:00 am ET on February 25, 2016 and came from Bovada.

Kurt Busch (+1600) – Call this a long shot or what have you, there’s a ton of value in putting a little money on Kurt Busch this weekend. And at 16-to-1 odds, it’s well worth the risk. One of the Fantasy NASCAR games that we have here at Fantasy Racing Online is The Showcase, and with that game each driver is assigned a handicap point value for each race. These handicap points are determined using the driver’s finishes in the last six races overall as well as the finishes int he last six races at that particular track. Those are weighted and compared to an overall average to determine which drivers are the best–0 handicap points–to the worst. I’m telling you all of this because Kurt Busch will receive 2 handicap points for Atlanta, which is 2nd-best among all driver (and tied with race favorite Kevin Harvick). Kurt Busch should be 10th according to Bovada’s odds, and that huge difference tells me that taking him at +1600 is a good call. He missed last year’s Atlanta race because of the suspension but “The Outlaw” has finished 6th or better in four of his last six starts at this track, and that includes a win in 2010–one of three Kurt has at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Carl Edwards racing at MartinsvilleCarl Edwards (+800) – I have a feeling that Carl Edwards is going to be one of the favorites for Sunday’s race once practice in qualifying are over with, so it might be a good idea to lock him in at +800 while you can. Last season when we ran this low downforce package, Carl Edwards was the one that loved it the most, and it showed in his finishes: at Kentucky, Carl ended up 4th, and then he won the race at Darlington. When you pair that with the fact that Atlanta is one of Carl’s favorite tracks on the circuits, there’s no reason to think he won’t have a shot to contend on Sunday. Edwards is a three-time winner here at AMS and owns the 5th-best average finish (14.5) at this track among active drivers.

Kyle Busch (+700) – It’s the same story with Kyle Busch as it is with Carl Edwards: the new aero package should only help the Sprint Cup champion this year. Remember the handicap points in The Showcase that I talked about with Kurt Busch? Well, Kyle Busch is the driver with zero handicap points this week, which in my book makes him the favorite. Now, heading into the race weekend I agree with Bovada and think either Kevin Harvick or Joey Logano is going to win on Sunday, but statistics say Kyle Busch might have the best shot. He won this race back in 2013 and also has a victory at Atlanta in 2008. “Rowdy” is still riding that championship wave of momentum, and the driving style required to run fast at Atlanta is one that suits him well.

Kyle Larson at Daytona qualifying 2016BONUS PICK: Kyle Larson (+2200) – A fast, slick race track where running against the wall is the fastest way around the track. Hmm…who does that make you think of? Kyle Larson. NASCAR fans are still waiting for this kid to get his first Sprint Cup win, and after his sophomore slump last season, I’m sure Kyle is more eager than ever as well. We’ve seen first time winners at Atlanta before, so why not this weekend? In 2016 I’m expecting the #42 Chevy to run like it did in 2004, and in the Atlanta race that season, Larson qualified 3rd and ended up finishing 8th. The reason I’d take a shot with Larson this early in the week at +2200 is because I expect the #42 Chevy to qualify up front and look pretty good in practice. That means Kyle will probably settle in the +1800 range on race day, and I’d rather have him at +2200. It’s worth a small bet, in my opinion.

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Stewart-Haas Racing is Switching to Ford

By
Jordan McAbee
-

tony-stewart-press-conferenceBy Jordan McAbee

In a somewhat shocking announcement just three days after the season-opening Daytona 500, Ford Performance let it be known that Stewart-Haas Racing–who currently fields the #4, #10, #14, and #14 Chevrolets driven by Kevin Harvick, Danica Patrick, Tony Stewart, and Kurt Busch, respectively–will be switching to Ford at the start of the 2017 season. They will race with engines prepared by Roush Yates, who currently provides engines (most prominently) to Penske Racing and Roush-Fenway Racing, among other teams. Clint Bowyer will be joining the SHR organization next year as well, taking over the #14 car for Tony Stewart, who is retiring after an 18-year Sprint Cup career.

Stewart-Haas Racing has fielded two championship teams in the last five years, taking home the crown with Tony Stewart in 2011 and, most recently, Kevin Harvick in 2004. The organization, which was “created” in 2009 when Tony Stewart became part owner, has raced Chevrolets since inception. Before that, it was just Haas CNC Racing, which started full-time in NASCAR’s top series in 2003, racing Pontiacs until switching to Chevrolet in 2004.

The Boost of Stewart-Haas Switching to Ford

Logano taking the checkered flag at Charlotte 2015 winIt was apparent during the 2015 season that the Penske Fords driven by Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski had a significant edge over the rest of the Sprint Cup field during qualifying on most race weekends. During the race itself, Logano was a perennial front runner for many Sprint Cup events, and he led the series with 6 victories throughout the season. And if it wasn’t for the altercations between him and Matt Kenseth, many believe that Logano would have remained the championship favorite through Homestead.

However, the Chevrolets at Stewart-Haas haven’t exactly been slow on the speed charts. Kevin Harvick has arguably been the fastest week-in and week-out competitor over the last two season. During the 2015 campaign, he finished 1st or 2nd in 16 of the 36 points-paying races and led 22% of all the laps ran during the season.

Still, the decision to switch manufacturers is one that any team takes plenty of time with. This wasn’t a spur-of-the-moment conclusion reached by Stewart-Haas, and it’s “out of left field” announcement is one that has raised many questions just one week into the new NASCAR year. Ladies and gentlemen, let the Silly Season begin!

What’s Going On With Chevrolet?

Martin Truex, Jr. standing in the garagePerhaps the most alarming question being raised this morning is, what is going on with Chevrolet? Between the 2015 and 2016 campaigns, Furniture Row Racing, which fields the #78 car driven by Martin Truex, Jr., switched over from Chevy to Toyota in an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. And if the Daytona 500 was any indication, it could be a very good year for those two racing organizations (read more about that here). Many industry experts believe that NASCAR’s new low downforce rules package will benefit the JGR Toyotas the most.

With Stewart-Haas making the switch to Ford in 2017, that’s five total Sprint Cup cars that will have left the Chevrolet power plant in the last two years, equaling out to one-eighth of the now 40-car field. Hendrick Motorsports, which has consistently fielded some of the best cars in the Sprint Cup series over the last few decades, is likely to remain with Chevy, as are the Richard Childress Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing cars. With that being said, not many saw this move coming from Stewart-Haas, so who’s to say we won’t see another NASCAR power player jump ship, too?

It definitely makes you wonder whether there’s something going on at Chevrolet and whether teams are concerned about future speed with the manufacturer.

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Yahoo! Atlanta Strategy Picks

By
Jordan McAbee
-
Harvick putting ear radio piece in
Photo Credit: Chris Trotman/NASCAR via Getty Images

Harvick putting ear radio piece inBy Jordan McAbee

Now that we have Daytona out of the way, we can get into the early chunk of the 2016 Sprint Cup schedule that is a lot more predictable. Like many others, Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s woes helped ruin my Yahoo! roster last week, but always remember that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Cliché, I know, but it’s true. We have 35 races left, and one bad one isn’t going to break you.

This week we’re at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a 1.54-mile quad oval track that is quite worn out. We should the rough racing surface go through a transition from green to checkered on Sunday so those who start out fast might not finish fast. Another thing to consider is the fact that this is the earliest in the season that we’ve raced at Atlanta for as long as I can remember. Luckily, the weather forecast looks great, getting progressively warmer from Friday to Sunday. They’re projecting a high of 64 degrees on race day.

Yahoo! A Group Picks for Atlanta

Kevin Harvick (9 starts remaining) – I’m going for maximum points this weekend and that means putting the guy who’s been absolutely dominant at this track on my roster. This will be the first real glance of the new low downforce package that we’ll see in 2016, and my theory is that it isn’t going to affect Kevin Harvick very much. With that being said, I do believe that it is going to bring the rest of the field a little closer in speed to this #4 Chevrolet. Now, since we’re in week 2 and teams are still getting acclimated to the new season, I’m going to stick with who I know will be fast, and that’s Kevin Harvick. “The Closer” has an insane 131.8 average driver rating over the last two races at Atlanta and probably should have won each as well. He finished 2nd in last year’s event and should be a contender for the win (and the pole) again this weekend.

Joey Logano (9 starts remaining) – Again, I’m sticking with the drivers that I know are going to be fast since we’re this early in the season. To put it simply, Joey Logano and this #22 team were pretty much fantasy locks every single time we stopped at an intermediate race track in 2015. I’m expecting them to have a bunch of speed once again this season, and I think the new rules package might actually help them a little bit. Logano won the pole for last year’s Atlanta race and led 84 laps before finishing 4th. He also ran 2nd here in 2013, his career-best finish at this track. It should be noted that those two races are Logano’s only top 10 results in his 9 career starts at Atlanta, but don’t let that keep you from picking the #22.

Yahoo! B Group Picks for Atlanta

Carl Edwards in the garage fantasy NASCARCarl Edwards (9 starts remaining) – I wrote after Denny Hamlin’s Daytona 500 victory on Sunday that it was a statement win not only for the #11 team, but for Toyota as a whole. I’m sticking to my guns that the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are going to continue to have a lot of speed on the intermediate tracks this season, and that includes Carl Edwards’ #19 machine. Atlanta Motor Speedway was the home of Carl’s first ever Sprint Cup win and he’s gone to victory lane a total of three times in his 18 career starts here. Last year, which was his first season with JGR, Carl started 5th and finished 12th in this race, but let’s not forget that that was when the Gibbs cars were lacking speed. He has the 5th-best average finish at Atlanta for a reason, and should be at least a top 10 threat on Sunday.

Martin Truex, Jr. (9 starts remaining) – One thing that I’ve noticed over the years is that when a team switches manufacturers, there tends to be a bit of a transition period in the beginning of the new season until they really get rolling. However, if Sunday’s Daytona 500 was any indication, this #78 team is picking up right where they left off last year. In 2015, Truex was consistently one of the best drivers on the intermediate race tracks and he has a solid race here at Atlanta, finishing 6th after starting 14th. That makes three finishes of 6th or better in the last four Atlanta races for Truex. As I said before, I think this new rules package is going to benefit Joe Gibbs Racing a lot, and don’t forget that Furniture Row Racing formed an alliance with JGR when they announced the switch to Toyota last year.

Kyle Larson getting in his carKyle Larson (9 starts remaining) – Atlanta Motor Speedway is a track that really plays to Kyle Larson’s strengths. This track lacks grip and the fastest way around is typically the high line. And Larson loves riding right up against the wall. In Kyle’s first career start here at Atlanta, he qualified 3rd and ending up finishing an impressive 8th; last season, he started 6th but wound up 26th. Now, we all know how disappointing the 2015 year was for Larson, and right now I’m chalking it up as a sophomore slump. I’m a little bit cautious putting him on my roster this week but at the same time I know the potential that Larson has.

Ryan Newman (9 starts remaining) – This is my “safe” pick of the B Group. I know what I’m getting with Ryan Newman: a top 10 finish. He’s not the flashiest driver in the series but he is very consistent, and sometimes that is a good strategy in the fantasy racing world. Now, chances are Newman isn’t going to see my starting lineup on Sunday, but he’s there in case I think any of the above three are too risky. Plus, Newman might net us some qualifying points; in the last seven Sprint Cup races at Atlanta, “The Rocketman” has qualified inside the top 10 for five of them. Newman is also on a three-race streak of top 10 finishes at this track.

For the record, I love Aric Almirola as a sleeper pick this weekend, and I almost put Kasey Kahne on my B Group list. The latter is just far too inconsistent for me, although Kasey did win the 2014 Atlanta race.

Yahoo! C Group Picks for Atlanta

This is where things get interesting. The no-brainer two choices for the C Group would be Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, but chances are we’re going to have Ty Dillon in the #14 Chevrolet this weekend, and part of me wants to save Elliott and Blaney for later on in the season. Another guy who many might not be thinking about this weekend is Brian Scott, who had some very impressive intermediate track performances in 2015 while driving the #33 Circle Sport Chevrolet–specifically finishing 12th at Kansas and 14th at Texas last October and November, respectively. I’d personally like to think that Scott’s #44 Ford is a tick better than the #33 he drove last year, so there’s some potential there.

If Ty Dillon is in the #14 this weekend, I don’t think you can pass on that opportunity to potentially save a start, so the question becomes who do you pair him with? Right now I’m leaning toward Ty Dillon and Brian Scott being my two C Group drivers for Atlanta, but that could change as the week goes on.

Let me know what you think and who you’re picking in the comments below!

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Hamlin Wins Daytona 500; Toyota Comes Out Strong

By
Jordan McAbee
-

daytona-500-finish-hamlin-truexBy Jordan McAbee

Another weekend, another Denny Hamlin victory. This time it really counted, though.

The driver of the #11 Toyota continued his dominating ways at Daytona International Speedway by leading 95 of the 200 total laps in Sunday’s 2016 Great American race, and he ended up leading the one that mattered the most by the tiniest of margins; unofficial NASACAR records had Hamlin edging Martin Truex, Jr. by a mere 0.011 seconds.

After the Sprint Unlimited last weekend, we debated whether or not Denny Hamlin was the new king of the restrictor plate tracks–or at least Daytona. The main argument that kept anyone from crowning Hamlin, however, was the fact that he had never won a points-paying race at the track.

Cross that off of the bucket list.

With his victory on Sunday, Denny Hamlin–who was listed at 12-to-1 odds earlier in the week–has already guaranteed his spot in the 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup championship, NASCAR’s version of the playoffs. Last year, it was Joey Logano–who went on to be favored by many as the championship favorite–that secured his playoff birth in NASCAR’s Holy Grail, the Daytona 500.

Toyota Makes a Statement

While Denny Hamlin’s win on Sunday will go down as one of the greatest finishes in Daytona 500 history, it’s important to note that the #11 car wasn’t the only impressive vehicle in the field. In fact, it was the Toyotas that really made a statement on Sunday, as they all combined to lead 158 of the 200 total laps. Additionally, four of the top five finishing positions belonged to drivers in Toyota race cars, with Kevin Harvick’s Chevrolet in 4th being the only exception.hamlin-racing-richmond

This is already a major improvement for the Toyota camp, one that had difficulty finding speed in the first half of the 2015 season. With NASCAR’s move to the lower downforce package in 2016, however, many expected the Toyotas to benefit the most, especially the Joe Gibbs Racing bunch. And if Sunday’s Great American Race was any indication, we should be seeing a whole lot of JGR in victory lane this year.

Typically wins at restrictor plate races don’t deserve much merit in the NASCAR world (at least as far as overall strength), but that’s not the case with Denny Hamlin. We all know what kind of racing talent he has, and the fact that Hamlin has added a strong plate racing attribute to his resume, it’s hard to not consider him one of the early favorites for the 2016 Sprint Cup championship. He’s paired with a new crew chief this year in Mike Wheeler, and that just might be the change Denny Hamlin needs to take his game to the next level.

Truex Starts Off  Strong in New Toyota

The 2015 NASCAR “feel good” story of the year was Martin Truex, Jr., and he almost brought that full circle hamlin-truex-finish-daytona-500at Daytona International Speedway on Sunday. If the start/finish line was just 20 feet closer to turn 4, we’d all be talking about Truex as the Daytona 500 champion right now. Alas, he ended up finishing 2nd.

Still, runner-up is a very good sign for this #78 team, which made the move from Chevrolet to Toyota over the offseason. Considering Truex was one of the strongest cars on intermediate tracks in 2015, that move had quite a few people worried about regression–myself included. The 2nd-place finish still has to be frustrating for Martin, though, who’s had his fair share of disappointment in finishes over the years.

However, if Sunday was any indication, the #78 team is doing just fine with the transition, and the car hasn’t seemed to lose any speed. We’ll get a more accurate reading on that latter statement next week, though, when the Sprint Cup Series stops at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Truex ran 6th there last season and has ended up between 3rd and 6th in three of the last four races at that track.

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