By Jordan McAbee

The 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup season was one of the most story-filled years in recent memory. It all started with Kurt Busch being suspended, and then his brother Kyle Busch breaking his leg soon after (and the day before the season-opening Daytona 500).

On top of all that, we saw the now infamous feud between Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano, and let’s not forget about the fact that we saw a legend go out (almost) on top, with Jeff Gordon making the final round of the Chase, only to finish 3rd to the aforementioned Kyle Busch, who took home the Sprint Cup championship.

Squeezed in between all of this was Tony Stewart’s announcement that he would be retiring after the 2016 Sprint Cup season, which will be his 18th full-time season. “Smoke” clarified during his press conference that is was 100% his decision, although you have to wonder whether or not his on-track performance–or rather lack thereof–was the actual deciding factor.

A Broken & Changed Man

First let’s flash back to 2011, when Tony Stewart went on one of the most impressive runs I’ve ever seen to end a season, winning three of the last four races to tie Carl Edwards for the Sprint Cup championship. Via tiebreaker, “Smoke” took home his third series championship while “Cousin Carl” was left with nothing. The next season, Tony had a pretty good year, going to victory lane three times and ending up 9th in the points standings.

It all went downhill after that, though. The 2013 season was already pretty rocky for Tony Stewart before it was announced that he broke his leg in a sprint car crash in early August. He was sidelined for the rest of the season, and “Smoke” wound up with an average finish of 16.1 — his worst since joining the series full time in 1999.

In 2014, it didn’t get much better for Tony Stewart, who once again wound up with a career-worst average finish (20th) over 33 total Sprint Cup Series starts, and zero wins, a first for him in his entire Cup career. The reason he missed three races, as we all remember, was because of the death of Kevin Ward that happened.

And between the broken leg and that accident, it’s blatantly obvious that Tony Stewart hasn’t been the same contending driver that we had come to know.

An Overlooked 2015

With all of the stories and focus on other drivers during the 2015 campaign, it was easy to overlook Tony Stewart’s struggles. But let’s be honest: it was almost sad. Once again, for the second time ever in his impressive career, “Smoke” never made it to victory lane, and his average finish of 24.8 was once again a career low. Stewart only led 24 total laps during the entire 2015 season, something he routinely accomplished in one race in previous years.

It wasn’t uncommon to see Tony Stewart’s #14 Chevrolet multiple laps down on a weekly basis. He finished outside of the top 20 in 23 of the 36 races in 2015, a statistic that is more likely to be seen associated with the likes of Casey Mears and other mid-tier organizations–not a NASCAR mammoth like Stewart-Haas Racing. So with that in mind, it begs the question…

What can we expect from Tony Stewart in 2016?

If the 2016 season goes anything like the 2015 campaign, it will be a very disappointing end to a very impressive career for Tony Stewart. However, it’s hard to imagine that happening. The #14 team was literally one of the worst in the Sprint Cup Series last season, and that’s not exaggerating. Of those drivers who competed in all of the races last year, only four were worse: Trevor Bayne, Justin Allgaier, Cole Whitt, and David Gilliland.

From a team perspective, the major change coming for the #14 crew in 2016 is a new crew chief in Michael Bugarewicz. He was previously the race engineer for Kevin Harvick’s crew. Many Tony Stewart fans blamed his struggles in 2015 on previous crew chief Chad Johnston, so having a new leader may do “Smoke” some good.

Still, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the three-time Sprint Cup champion has been on a downward trend for a few years now. While I hope that Tony Stewart competes for the championship in his final season in NASCAR’s top series, I just don’t see that as very likely. Possible, yes, but nowhere near a high possibility. However, with NASCAR’s playoff system the way it is, all it takes is one win in the “regular season” for Tony Stewart, and you never know which team will get hot when the playoffs start…

UPDATE: It was announced on February 4, 2016 that Tony Stewart suffered a fractured vertebrae and will miss the start of the 2016 Sprint Cup season. There is no timeline for his return at this time. Meanwhile, the injury just adds to the already difficult season ahead for “Smoke.” We did see with Kyle Busch in 2015, though, that a driver can suffer a major injury and come back to win the championship.

By Jordan McAbee

“Age turnover” is something that happens in every sport. The NFL team with the highest average age will eventually get a significant makeover, and could be the youngest in just a couple of years. With NASCAR, though, the “age turnover” (as I like to call it) doesn’t quite happen as rapidly.

Part of the blame with this slow progress can be blamed on the lack of talent in the driver pool. Brett Mottiff won the 2015 Rookie of the Year award and he’s struggling to even find a ride for the 2016 season.  The Sprint Cup Series got some pretty good new talent in 2014 (Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon), and 2013 wasn’t overly-terrible (Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Danica Patrick), but from 2012 to 2010 we got three Rookie of the Years that I haven’t heard mentioned since: Stephen Leicht, Andy Lally, Kevin Conway.

Now, it’s borderline crazy to think that NASCAR would land a high-talent rookie every season, but it’s been a major swing-and-a-miss in four of the last six seasons. Right now the jury’s out on 2013, but Stenhouse and Danica have been quite underwhelming, to say the least.

I also think we got a little spoiled in the early years of the 2000s, as the rookie classes from 2000 to 2005 gave us drivers such as Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Jamie McMurray, Greg Biffle, Kasey Kahne, and the 2015 Sprint Cup champion, Kyle Busch.

With that being said, there are some young stars in the Xfinity Series that are just waiting for the opportunity to get into a Cup car, but, to put it simply, there just isn’t a whole lot of room–at least in cars that are on par performance-wise with the rest of the series.

The Promising 2016 Rookie Class

Slowly but surely the wily old veterans are moving on to broadcasting duties and their rocking chairs, though. The 2016 season will be the first year that Jeff Gordon isn’t racing full time since 1993, nearly a quarter of a century. The iconic #24 Chevrolet will be taken over by the rookie Chase Elliott, who won the 2014 Xfinity Series championship and came home runner-up to Chris Buescher last season.

In addition to that, Ryan Blaney will be driving the Wood Brothers #21 Ford for the whole 2016 Sprint Cup season, which will be the first time that organization has attempted a full schedule since 2008 season. He has four wins in both the Xfinity and Truck Series despite running just 101 races between the two.

Rounding out this year’s promising rookie class are a couple of drivers with questionable equipment. First there is Chris Buescher, who won the 2015 Xfinity Series championship and will drive for Front Row Motorsports, a team that really hasn’t made much noise except for some restrictor plate races. Finally, there is Brian Scott, who will be taking control of the #44 Ford for Richard Petty Motorsports. During the 2015 Cup season, Scott showed some promise in the #33 Circle Sport Chevrolet, which is an organization that lacks funding to really be competitive. Scott will definitely get a boost by moving over to RPM, but there’s still a clear ceiling there.

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

NASCAR is an extremely fast paced sport, and I’m not just talking about the speeds on the track. Up-and-coming drivers typically have a window of about two to three years to prove themselves. If they haven’t done enough to show that they are worth keeping around, team owners will be on to the next project–sometimes before the season is even over.

Take, for example, Joey Logano. He came into the Sprint Cup Series in 2009 as as much of a “sure pick” as you could get. He dominated the Xfinity Series and was taking over the #20 Toyota recently vacated by Tony Stewart. To say he was in the cat bird’s seat would be an understatement.

In Joey’s rookie campaign, he got lucky and won a rain-shortened race at Loudon while finishing 20th in the points standings. The following year, Logano was 16th in points with zero wins and the “bust” label starting to get thrown around. He stayed two more years at Joe Gibbs Racing, finishing 24th and 17th in his final two years at the organization while collecting just one more victory.

In 2013, Joey Logano made the jump to Penske Racing and paired up with Brad Keselowski. It was just the change of scenery that he needed. Logano went on to finish 8th in the points standings in his first year with the organization and then broke out as a serious contender in 2014 with 5 wins and a 4th-place points finish. Last year, Joey notched six Cup wins and was considered a championship contender before everything happened with Matt Kenseth.

So what does it all mean? Well, it’s hard to say. It’s no secret that drivers need time to develop before reaching their potential in this sport, but at the same time, that development needs to happen quickly. It finally seems like NASCAR is getting some better-than-average young talent, though, and it’s coming at a time when the sport needs it most. Tony Stewart will be saying farewell to NASCAR after his 2016 campaign, and there will probably be more veterans that step away in the next four or five years.

Better step up your game, kids. There’s going to be some excellent opportunities available in the form of Cup rides in the coming years.