Wow…that’s really the only word I came come up with to describe the Challenger Round of the Chase. In the first three races of this year’s playoffs, we saw Denny Hamlin win at Chicago and then Matt Kenseth take home the checkered flag at Loudon. By Dover, defending Sprint Cup champion, Kevin Harvick, was faced with a near must-win situation–and that’s exactly what he did. “The Closer” dominated the AAA 400 at Dover and punched his ticket to the next round of the Chase: the Contender Round. Meanwhile, six-time Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson was forced out early from this year’s playoffs after rear-axle woes at “The Monster Mile.” Joining JJ with an early exit were Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, and Clint Bowyer.

If the first round of NASCAR’s 2015 playoffs were any indication, fans should be in for a great treat in the second round. Don’t forget, even though he’s eliminated, Jimmie Johnson is more than capable of winning pretty much any race and could shake things up a bit for those remaining in the Chase. With this post, I will be detailing each race in the Contender Round along with the drivers most likely to win and get into the Eliminator Round. Also, at the end, you can see which drivers that I believe will be eliminated. The 12 drivers that are still in the hunt after advancing from the Challenger Round are: Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Martin Truex, Jr., Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Kevin Harvick.

Charlotte 2 Preview

Chaser most likely to win: Kevin Harvick

Charlotte, North Carolina is basically the hub for NASCAR. Most teams have their shops set up there, the NASCAR Hall of Fame is there, etc. We also run quite a few races at this venue. First there’s the non-points paying qualifying races and All Star Race, and then the weekend after that is the prestigious Coca-Cola 600. Carl Edwards won that race this year. And then we’re back here at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Bank of America 500 in the Chase.

After finally pulling through with the must-have win at Dover–and having an absolute dominant race car for the last two weeks–the #4 team and Kevin Harvick will be riding high with momentum as they pull into Charlotte. Not to mention they will have a pretty large amount of confidence. The Contender Round of the Chase is no joke and being in a must-win situation at Talladega–the third and final event of this round–is something the #4 crew definitely does not want to be in. So I’m sticking with the hot hand and saying that Harvick goes out and wins the first race in the Contender Round before cruising into the third leg of the playoffs.

Typically with these posts I list a few drivers that have a possibility to win, but I just don’t see anyone else in Kevin Harvick’s lead heading into the Bank of America 500 race weekend. In addition to having dominant race cars at both Loudon and Dover (and possibly even Chicago), Harvick has won two of the last five points-paying races at Charlotte Motor Speedway–including this event one year ago–and has averaged a driver rating of 120.0 over that span. He has also finished 2nd in each of the last two All Star Races. Hands down, the #4 Chevrolet has been the best car at Charlotte over the last two-and-a-half years and that’s not suddenly going to change now. One driver that might give Harv a run for his money could be Joey Logano, who despite never having won at this track has the best average finish among active drivers (10.2). Matt Kenseth probably deserves to be in the conversation as well, but as I type this my mind is set on Harvick winning.

Kansas 2 Preview

Chasers most likely to win: Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano

This will be the second race of the 2015 season at Kansas Speedway, and the first one saw Jimmie Johnson go to victory lane. As I mentioned before, he could make things very interesting for the Chase field in this round. Another win at Kansas would definitely shake things up a bit, and there’s no reason to count the #48 team out of this race consider Jimmie has won three times at this venue. Kansas is your typical cookie cutter race track, and it should be noted that when we raced here back in May it was a Saturday night race. This time around, the Hollywood Casino 400 will be ran in the middle of the afternoon.

As far as contenders to win in the second Kansas race, you have to immediately think of Kevin Harvick once again. I don’t know about you, but after their dominating performance at Dover, I could definitely see this #4 team rattling off a couple victories in a row now. Winnings helps many things, remember that. Also, it’s hard to bet against the best driver at Kansas. Over the last four Sprint Cup races at this track, Harvick has finished 1st or 2nd three times and has led a total of 371 laps. No other driver even comes close to that amount. Kevin has also averaged a driver rating of 130.0 over those four races, which is pretty damn impressive at an intermediate track like this.

Another driver you should have on your radar for the Hollywood Casino 400 is Joey Logano. His career average finish of 18.6 at Kansas is going to scare a few fantasy racers away, but you should know by now that NASCAR is a sport that thrives on “what have you done for me lately?” To answer that question, let’s look at the last four events at Kansas Speedway. I mentioned earlier how good Kevin Harvick has been at this track over that span, but Joey Logano has been right there with him. Logano has started and finished inside the top 5 in all four of those races and led a total of 247 laps. He’s the defending winner of the fall event at Kansas (meaning he won this Chase race in 2014) and Joey was the pole winner for the spring race here this season. The #22 Ford will be a surefire top 5 pick for the Hollywood Casino 400 and should be mentioned as a potential race winner as well.

Talladega 2 Preview

Chasers most likely to win: Anyone, really…but Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has the advantage

Talladega is going to be the huge wildcard race in this round of the Chase, although I really think that people get too hyped up about this event. Yeah, restrictor plate tracks are totally unpredictable, but it seems like the Talladega Chase race is always super calm. Also, thus far in 2015, the plate races have actually been a little predictable, as the best drivers on these huge tracks have usually finished up front. Which brings us to the Chaser that has the best shot at winning this year’s CampingWorld.com 500…

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is simply the best when it comes to restrictor plate racing, and he has some of the best equipment in the series to back him up. That is a bad combination for the competition. Looking at the plate races we’ve ran thus far in 2015, Junior finished 3rd in the season-opening Daytona 500, won the race here at Talladega in May, and then won the second event at Daytona in July as well. Not too shabby. Whenever a race team is doing this well on a particular track type for an entire season, it’s usually not very wise to bet against them, and I wouldn’t recommend doing so here.

Looking at other drivers that have performed well on the restrictor plate tracks in 2015…Denny Hamlin has ended up top 10 in all three, including top 5s at both Daytona races. Kevin Harvick has those same statistics on the plate tracks as well. Martin Truex, Jr. finished 8th in the season-opening Daytona 500 and then came home 5th in the first Talladega race, so if you’re looking for a sleeper pick the #78 Chevrolet might be an option. Finally, Jeff Gordon won the pole for the Daytona 500 and the first Talladega race, so you know this team has speed in their restrictor plate package. The only race he actually had a good finish, though, was the second Daytona race, where Gordon ended up 6th.

So, who will be eliminated after the Contender Round?

To make it to the Eliminator Round without a win, a driver is going to need great runs at both Charlotte and Kansas and then at least a decent run at Talladega. As I said earlier, anything can happen at ‘Dega, so it’s hard to say who might win there. But I feel like the historical data from Charlotte and Kansas that we have now, along with how teams have ran at similar tracks in 2015, can give us a clear indication of who is going to be on the hot seat heading into the third race of the second round of the playoffs.

The first cut of the Contender Round that I have is Kurt Busch. This team just hasn’t been that great since the calendar page turned to August, and you need to be great now that we’re down to 12 drivers remaining to duke it out for the championship. Heading into the first race of this round (Charlotte), Kurt has just three top 10s in the last nine Sprint Cup races. At Charlotte, Kurt did finish 10th here back in the Coca-Cola 600, but that’s his only top 10 in the last four points-paying races here. At Kansas, Kurt has just two top 10s in his last eight starts, and he has just one top 10 in the last ten Talladega races. So, to me, this is an easy cut. Kurt Busch is done after the second round.

Next on my list of probable drivers that won’t make it past the second round is Jeff Gordon. Although many didn’t have faith in the #24 Chevrolet, I predicted that he would get past the first round, and he proved my guess right. However, now that we’re in the Contender Round, it’s going to take more than 10th- to 12th-place finishes for Gordon to advance, and I just don’t see the #24 team being capable of that. Gordon finished 15th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 and just hasn’t been super fast on the intermediate tracks as a whole in 2015. The good news is that Gordon has three top 5s in the last four Kansas races, but one top 5 in this round isn’t going to save you. Finally, as I mentioned earlier, the #24 Chevrolet has been fast on the restrictor plate tracks this year, but Gordon hasn’t been able to finish. For whatever reason, that doesn’t seem to change over the course of a season at places like Daytona and Talladega. Next!

This is where it started to get tricky, and this is going to be somewhat of a surprise elimination pick for the second round: Kyle Busch. I guess it’s time to prove me wrong, Rowdy. The knock on Busch his entire career is that he isn’t clutch. When you add that characteristic with the fact that he has a bad temper when things start going even remotely wrong, you don’t have a very reliable pick to make it to the next round of the Chase. Looking at track statistics, Rowdy is pretty good at Charlotte and should run top 10 with a decent chance at pulling off a top 5. At Kansas, however, the story is completely different. This track is Kyle Busch’s achilles. In 15 career starts at Kansas, he has just one top 5, which is part of just three top 10s. His career average finish there is 21.4. The good news for Rowdy fans is that that lone top 5 came in this October race one year ago. I still don’t trust Kyle, though. At Talladega, Busch has five finishes outside of the top 20 in the last nine races. So I’m axing both Busch brothers at the same time in this year’s Chase…ouch.

My final cut of the Contender Round is Martin Truex, Jr. Yeah, I predicted that he would be done after the first round, but an 11th-place run at Dover gave him enough to get into this year’s second round of NASCAR’s playoffs. But like I said before, 10th to 12th-place runs aren’t going to be enough as we get deeper into this Chase, and it sure seems like that’s all that this #78 team is capable of right now. Truex ran 5th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 (and probably had the best car), but this is a different team now that they were back in May. The same goes for his 9th-place run at Kansas, where Truex led a race-high 95 laps. The good news is that he has three top 10s in the last five Talladega races, but who knows how that race is going to play out. Also, I don’t trust Truex to come through in a clutch situation like that, simply because he hasn’t really had that much pressure before.

The three drivers I had on the bubble of being eliminated in the second round of this Chase were Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Newman. So let’s just go down the line here.

Denny Hamlin is a constant top 10 threat at Charlotte, and although he has never won there in 20 career starts, he’s one of the most consistent drivers at that track and owns the 5th-best average finish among active drivers (13.2). Going into the Bank of America 500 race weekend, I see the #11 Toyota as a top 5 threat. Now, the Kansas race is going to say a lot about this #11 team, as Denny hasn’t had a top 5 finish there since his win back in 2012. He finished 7th in last year’s fall race at Kansas. Finally, in terms of Talladega, Hamlin has been one of the strongest restrictor plate racers this season, and although nothing is guaranteed at those venues, I’ll take the #11 over many other drivers in a “hot seat” situation. My main concern with Denny is Kansas, but he won at Chicago so I guess it’s not all that crazy to think he might turn things around there.

I probably over-reacted a bit by putting Brad Keselowski on the bubble here but he had less than stellar runs at both Loudon and Dover so it’s hard not to. Looking at the three races in this round, BK has won at Charlotte and should be at least a top 10 threat in the Bank of America 500. At Kansas, Keselowski also has one victory and he finished 7th in this year’s spring event at the track. Also, Penske has been very fast at the intermediate race track so it’s probably good for Brad and Joey that we’re hitting two of them this round. At Talladega, BK has won three times, including a victory in last year’s Chase race to get him to the Eliminator Round. I know Brad doesn’t want to be in that position again, and I don’t think he will this time around–although it might be close.

Finally, Ryan Newman is one of the drivers that most people are going to have eliminated after the Contender Round, but I don’t think that will happen. This guy just has a knack for doing exactly enough and he’s super calm and focused when doing so. What you need to advance in NASCAR’s playoffs if you can’t challenge for wins is confidence and calmness, and Ryan Newman has that. At Charlotte, “The Rocketman” has finished 8th or better in four of the last five points-paying races, and Newman has ended up 11th or better in each of the last three Kansas races. As far as Talladega goes, it’s easy to put Newman in the “avoid” category when making your fantasy picks, but he’s actually turned things around at these restrictor plate tracks lately–to the tune of four top 10s in the last six Talladega races. I could go either way with the #31 but I think Newman is going to squeak by once again in the Contender Round.

There you have it.

Pretty much everyone’s “brackets” were busted when Jimmie Johnson failed to advance in the first round of this year’s playoffs, but I don’t think we’re going to have any craziness go on in the second group of races. Obviously you can’t predict mechanical issues or the Talladega race, but Charlotte and Kansas should be pretty straightforward.

Who’s your surprise pick to be eliminated in the second round? Leave your answer (and any feedback) in the comments section below!

The first race of the Chase at Chicagoland Speedway was somewhat surprising, but we should see a pretty predictable race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend, where the Sylvania 300 will serve as the second leg of this opening Challenger Round. Loudon is a track that we typically see the same faces finish up front, and I can almost guarantee that most of those on Sunday will be Chasers. There are a few sleepers that we should keep an eye on, though, so let’s go over them.

Fantasy Sleepers for Loudon 2

Austin Dillon – This #3 team had a pretty good month of August but September has been a completely different story: thus far they’ve came home 22nd at Darlington, 27th at Richmond, and 43rd at Chicago since the calendar page turned. There’s nowhere to go but up from here, and with that being said, they have to be pretty thankful that we are at Loudon this weekend for the Sylvania 300. Believe it or not, this is Austin Dillon’s best track on the Sprint Cup circuit. Now obviously he isn’t very far into his career, but the fact that Austin has been able to post an average finish of 11th in three career Cup starts here is pretty impressive. Even more impressive is the consistency; in those three races, Dillon hasn’t ended up worse than 14th, and he posted a career-best result of 8th here in the spring race. Oh, and don’t worry if the #3 Chevrolet doesn’t look very impressive in qualifying this weekend: Austin has never started better than 22nd at a Sprint Cup race at New Hampshire.

Aric Almirola – Aric Almirola and this #43 team are really showing some strength this season. Yeah, they’ve only posted three top 10 finishes thus far in the 2015 season–two of which were also top 5s, by the way–but 21 top 20s in the 27 Cup races this year is actually very impressive for this team. Even better is the fact that Aric has came home 11th or better in each of the last three races, including his 10th-place run at Chicagoland. Looking at his statistics here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Almirola has had some bright spots over the years, including a 6th-place finish in this event one year ago and a 5th-place effort back in the July 2013 race. Overall, Aric’s average finish here at Loudon is 19.1 over ten career starts. It’s going largely unnoticed but over the last six Sprint Cup events, this #43 Ford has the 10th-best average finish with 12.0–which is better than some of the big name drivers such as Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson.

Kyle Larson – Yeah, this kid missed the Chase, but he’s finally starting to heat up and it actually wouldn’t surprise me if he finally got to victory lane before this 2015 season is over with. After his 7th-place run at Chicagoland last weekend, Larson has now finished 12th or better in each of the last three Sprint Cup races, and he’s ended up 13th or better in seven of the last eight. Getting that kind of consistency from a mid-tier driver like Larson is quite valuable in the fantasy racing world. Here at Loudon, Kyle finished 3rd and 2nd in the two events ran during his rookie campaign but then disappointed mightily here back in July, ending up 31st. We’ll call that a fluke, as I have Larson as a high teens pick heading into the Sylvania 300 race weekend.

Now that the 2015 Chase for the Cup field is set, we’re really only going to hear about the 16 drivers fighting for the championship. With that being said, however, it’s still advantageous to look into sleeper options for your fantasy NASCAR teams during these playoff races. With that being said, underdog picks are going to be few and far between in these upcoming weeks because at Chicagoland, Loudon, and Dover, its mostly the “top tier” drivers that finish up front.

Fantasy Sleepers for Chicagoland

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – I’ve been pretty hard on Roush-Fenway Racing this year, and for good reason. However, Chicagoland has to be circled on Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.’s calendar because he’s pretty good here. In two career starts at this track, Ricky has qualified 5th and 4th and ended up finishing 8th and 17th in those races (respectively). So it’s no surprise that Chicagoland ranks 2nd in terms of Stenhouse’s best tracks. Looking at similar tracks, Kentucky ranks high on the list, and the #17 team came home in 11th at that race this season. Now, keep in mind that we ran that low drag package in that race, and that helps an organization like Roush-Fenway. I’m in no way saying Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. could go out and win the MyAFibRisk.com 400 on Sunday but a top 15 is within reach.

Aric Almirola – Well, Aric was on my list of sleepers to watch at Richmond last weekend and he went out and finished inside the top 5. Now obviously this is a very unlikely occurrence, but it’s nice when your sleepers go out there and perform. Now if only I would have put the #43 Ford on more of my fantasy rosters! Anyway, with the way this team has been running as of late, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another good run out of them here at Chicagoland on Sunday. Aric has made three starts at this track and has actually led at least one lap in all of them. He had engine issues here last season but finished 13th here in 2013 and 17th in 2012. Momentum-wise, Aric Almirola has an average finish of 13.3 over the last six Sprint Cup races, which is better than quite a few big name drivers, including Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr.

Jamie McMurray – Here’s where we get to see what Jamie McMurray and this #1 team is really made of. They have been a great example of consistency during the 2015 season but haven’t been able to get over the hump–meaning, McMurray can usually be counted on for a top 15 finish, but not so much a top 10. He’s going to need to start finishing in the top 10 if he wants to make it to the next round of the Chase. Making the playoffs usually gives drivers a boost of confidence and that is shown by performance on the track, so we’ll see if the same holds true for Jamie Mac. The good news? He finished 9th here last season, one of three top 10s in twelve career starts at Chicagoland.

Now that the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond International Raceway has come and gone, NASCAR’s 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup can begin. First we have the Challenger Round, which consists of races at Chicagoland Speedway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon), and Dover International Speedway. Any Chase driver that secures a victory in any of these races will earn a spot in the next round of NASCAR’s playoffs, and then points will be used to determine which 12 drivers will go on.

With this post, I will be detailing each race in the Challenger Round along with the drivers most likely to win and get into the Contender Round. Also, at the end, you can see which drivers that I believe will be eliminated. The 16 drivers making up this year’s Chase field are: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard, and Clint Bowyer.

Chicagoland Preview

Drivers most likely to win: Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick

Chicagoland Speedway is a relatively rough 1.5-mile tri-oval racetrack that compares most similarly to Kentucky Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Handling is going to be a big factor here in the MyAFibRisk400.com, which means Matt Kenseth should be considered a favorite–especially if he has speed. Typically the #20 team focuses on handling if they have enough speed off the truck. Kenseth went to victory lane here in 2013 and is coming off of a dominating performance at Richmond.

Another driver that could lock himself into the Contender Round right off the bat at Chicagoland is Brad Keselowski. This #2 team put some very strong race cars on the track in August and September and seem to be hitting their stride at exactly right time. Also, you have to take into account the fact that, since joining Penske Racing in 2010, Keselowski has finished 7th or better in four of his five starts at this track, including wins in both 2012 and 2014.

Finally, Kevin Harvick hasn’t been to victory lane since Phoenix back in March, and before that win he went to victory lane the previous week at Las Vegas. As mentioned before, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is pretty similar to Chicagoland, and Harvick led over half of the laps in this year’s Vegas race en route to his victory. Looking at Chicagoland, “The Closer” won both of his first two starts here (in 2001 and 2002) but hasn’t gotten back to victory lane since. He has, however, ended up inside the top 5 in three of the last four races at Chicagoland and you know that #4 Chevrolet is going to be blazing fast pretty much every week.

Loudon 2 Preview

Drivers most likely to win: Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth

We’ve already been to Loudon, New Hampshire once this season, and it was Kyle Busch that went on to win that day with Brad Keselowski finishing 2nd. Those two along with Matt Kenseth have been the hands-down best drivers at Loudon over the last two-and-a-half years, which is exactly why they’re most likely to win the second race of this year’s Chase. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1-mile flat track that typically provides some excellent racing. What should be noted here is that a pit crew mistake could absolutely ruin a driver’s day, as well a penalty such as speeding on pit road.

Kyle Busch knows all about bumping people out of the way for position, and being aggressive is something I hope to see more out of drivers now that they’re actually racing for something. It took a while for Rowdy Busch to get the hang of this race track but he has been stellar as of late; in the last five races at Loudon, Kyle has finished 1st or 2nd four times and in the other race he ended up 8th–which was actually this event one year ago. Busch is one of nine active Sprint Cup drivers with multiple victories at this race track.

I know NASCAR is trying to create more competition on the track, but it really wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we saw the same drivers finish inside the top 5 at both Chicagoland and Loudon 2 this year. It’s not because they’re similar race tracks, but rather the same drivers have found a lot of success at both. They are both tracks that require a driver with skills and patience, which means Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth are definitely part of the conversation.

We’ll start with Keselowski. No other Sprint Cup driver has a better average driver rating over the last five races at Loudon that Bad Brad, who tops the list with 122.9. He’s only been to victory lane once at Loudon, but that was in the 2014 July race, and as I mentioned before he ended up 2nd to Kyle Busch in the this year’s July event. Brad hasn’t ended up worse than 11th at Loudon since the 2011 season and has finished 7th or better in seven of his last eight starts at this track.

As far as Matt Kenseth, he had his share of struggles at New Hampshire Motor Speedway while he was still with Roush-Fenway Racing. Once he made the move to the Gibbs camp, though, Kenseth’s results drastically improved at this track–and at all short tracks in general. The organization switch was definitely a good move for Matt. In his five starts at Loudon in the #20 Toyota, Kenseth has four finishes of 9th or better and went to victory lane in the 2013 September race.

Dover 2 Preview

Drivers most likely to win: Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick

Dover is another 1-mile race track but it is vastly different than New Hampshire, as it races a lot like an intermediate oval. I personally believe that Dover produces some of the best racing on the Sprint Cup circuit and these are always some of my favorite races to watch. Perhaps the best thing about Dover–from a fantasy perspective anyway–is its overall predictability. There typically aren’t any surprises inside the top 5 when a Dover race is over, although a sleeper might be able to crack the top 10.

Jimmie Johnson is basically the king of Dover International Speedway with a career average finish of 7.9 and ten (yes, ten!) wins. He has made a total of 27 career starts at this track which means that Jimmie wins 37% of the time–yet another absolutely ridiculous statistic associated with the driver of the #48 Chevrolet. Johnson won the race here back in May, finished 3rd at Dover last September, and won the two races at this track before that. Basically what I’m saying is that if the #48 team hasn’t locked themselves into the Contender Round by the time we get to Dover, don’t worry because they’ll probably win again at “The Monster Mile.”

One of the best cars at Dover over the last couple of races without a 48 on the side is the #4 Chevrolet driven by Kevin Harvick. He’s definitely had the speed to get to victory lane, but for whatever reason this team hasn’t been able to put it all together. In fact, it’s not just this #4 team–Harvick himself has never been to victory lane at Dover. It’s bound to happen eventually, though, and with the speed that this team has had at this track lately, I have a feeling it might be soon. Hell, it might even be this year. Harvick finished 2nd in this year’s May race at Dover and led 223 of the 400 laps in the 2014 September race here, but had a tire issue and ended up finishing 13th. I’m expecting another strong showing out of the #4 team at Dover this year.

So, who will be eliminated after the Challenger Round?

It’s going to take something major for the top teams in the Chase to be eliminated in the first round. And by something major I mean wrecking at two of the three races, and even then those elite drivers could grab a victory at Dover. So, let’s assume that the following are pretty much locks to advance: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski. Okay, great, half of the next round is set. That leaves: Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer to duke it out for the last six spots.

Paul Menard is my first cut in the Challenger Round. The first three races just aren’t very good race tracks for Paul Menard, and while he could sneak past if a few elite drivers have problems, let’s be honest that that’s not going to happen. Chicagoland is Paul’s 2nd-worst track on the circuit, as he has just one top 10 in eight career starts there. Loudon is his 3rd-worst track, with an average finish of 23.8 and zero top 10s in seventeen total starts. Once we’re at Dover, it’s going to take a miracle for Menard to make it to the next round, and while he’s finished top 10 in two of the last three races at “The Monster Mile,” it’s sure to be too little too late for the #27 team.

My next predicted driver that won’t make it to the second round of the Chase is last year’s runner-up, Ryan Newman. Take a look at the statistics of the drivers than have finished 2nd in points for the last ten years or so. Most of the time, they struggle mightily. Last year, Newman got into the Chase based on his consistency and almost won the damn championship because of it, too. That simply won’t happen two years in a row. The #31 team hasn’t been a legitimate race contender all season long and that’s probably not going to suddenly change now that we’re in the Chase. Another note to consider is that in the nine races before Chicagoland, Newman only posted two top 10 finishes. The good news for “Rocketman” fans is that he has won three times each at both Loudon and Dover, and Newman has also visited victory lane at Chicagoland.

Jamie McMurray is one driver that I was really excited about seeing in the Chase after the first 20 races of the season. This #1 team was performing very well and showing promise, but now that we’re getting down to crunch time, they’ve actually regressed quite a bit. I just don’t like teams that don’t have momentum heading into the Chase. Jamie Mac is great at finishing in the teens on a consistent basis but I just don’t see that working in the Chase; if he somehow makes it to the Contender Round, it definitely isn’t going to work there. Jamie’s career average finishes in the first three races of the Chase are: 21.3 at Chicagoland, 20.7 at Loudon, and 17.8 at Dover. Sorry Jamie Mac, but I just don’t see other drivers having enough bad luck and you having enough good luck to make it to the next round of NASCAR’s 2015 playoffs.

Here’s my first surprise cut in the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup…drumroll please…Martin Truex, Jr. Yep, everyone’s “feel good” story of the season is going to run into a rough patch, I believe. Martin just hasn’t been the same since that head-on wreck at Sonoma, and I really believe that it’s affecting his driving. Also, this #78 team is having much more bad luck than they did in the first half of the year. To put it in a numbers perspective, Truex has 17 top 10s in 2015 thus far. He notched 14 of those in the first 15 races of the season. Therefore, if you can do simple math, in the 11 races ran since then, Truex has had just 3 top 10s. No bueno. The good news for Martin Truex, Jr. fans is that he is very good at Dover, and might be able to squeeze out a surprise win. It probably won’t happen but you never know. At Chicagoland, Martin is typically a mid-teens pick, and at Loudon Truex hasn’t finished better than 10th since the 2011 season.

This, of course, means that I think Clint Bowyer and Jeff Gordon will make it to the second round of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup–two drivers that have struggled quite a bit in 2015. Hear me out on this one.

Clint Bowyer has 11 total top 10 finishes entering the Chase this year. Now, it has to be noted that 5 of those were earned in the last 7 races before the playoff cutoff. We’ve seen this before out of Bowyer–the guy is actually pretty good under pressure. What I like about the #15 team in this first round, though, is how they perform at these first three tracks. Clint owns seven top 10s in nine career starts at Chicagoland. At New Hampshire, he’s a two-time winner and has three finishes of 6th or better in the last seven races. And at Dover, Bowyer is on a nine-race streak of top 10s. So, when the final spots for the Contender Round are determined based on points, Clint is going to have to be quite confident in his history at Dover. Now hopefully he can get through Chicagoland and New Hampshire unscathed.

Finally, let’s talk about Jeff Gordon. I think we’re all waiting to see this #24 team get back to their 2014 form, and for some reason I still think there’s some slight possibility of that happening. Looking at the first three races of the Chase, I think Gordon will perform pretty well if he can avoid the bad luck that seems to strike every other week in 2015. He finished 2nd at Chicagoland last season and 6th the year before. At Loudon, Jeff has been to victory lane on three occasions and ended up 9th in the spring race this season. Finally, at Dover, Jeff has four top 10s in the last six events there, and he’s a five-time winner at “The Monster Mile.” His last win? In last season’s Chase race.

There you have it.

Obviously things are going to change on a week by week basis, but this is how I see the first round of the 2015 Chase for the Sprint Cup playing out. What’s going to make things very interesting is if a guy like Kevin Harvick or Jimmie Johnson wrecks or has mechanical issues at Chicagoland, which we saw happen to Dale Earnhardt, Jr. last year. One bad race with this format pretty much forces you to get a win to make it to the next round.