It’s hard to believe that we’re this far in to the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season, but with the Coke Zero 400 on Sunday night, we’ve officially started making the “second round” at race tracks. This week is Daytona, and, as you probably know, handicapping a race at this venue is next to impossible. Anything can happen on Sunday night and we could easily see a surprising driver in victory lane. You know what that means…sleeper options for fantasy picks!

Fantasy Sleepers for Daytona 2

Casey Mears – For the second week in a row, Casey Mears makes my list for the top sleeper options. Last week at Sonoma, he ended up finishing 38th, but you can’t forget that this #13 Chevrolet was running inside the top 15 for most of the day until the axle issue. Now, if you’re surprised that Mears is on this list, I’m going to go ahead and assume that you haven’t been paying attention to the restrictor plate races over the last few years–or, if you have, it wasn’t very closely. Looking over the last six points-paying events here at Daytona International Speedway, the driver with the best average finish has been Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (with 7.2). No surprise there. Can you tell me who the second-best driver over that same span has been? Well, if you’re reading this, you have a pretty good idea…it’s Casey Mears! Believe it or not, Mears has scored more points than guys like Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, etc. over the last six races at Daytona. Casey has averaged a finish of 12.7 and is currently on a four-race streak of top 10s. Mears is a lower-tier pick in fantasy leagues and would make a perfect pick on Sunday night in allocation games as well as salary cap contests.

Ryan Blaney – I’m really interested to see how this kid will do here at Daytona on Sunday night. We all know that the Wood Brothers put together pretty good race cars, and everyone always has at least one eye on the #21 Ford at restrictor plate tracks ever since Trevor Bayne got lucky and won the Daytona 500 in 2011. The main reason I am interested in how Ryan Blaney does here in the Coke Zero 400, though, is because of how well he has performed in his limited Sprint Cup action this season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, Blaney was running right around the top 10 at the time his engine gave up, and then back in May he started 3rd and finished 4th at Talladega. If he can stay out of trouble on Sunday night, it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see this #21 Ford finish inside the top 10 once again, and that would be an incredible value finish in most fantasy racing leagues.

Austin Dillon – The picture to the right is Austin Dillon’s car during the race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this year. Obviously fantasy owners didn’t get the best effort out of young Austin that day. Now I know that both Talladega and Daytona are similar race tracks, but there are quite a few differences among the two as well. Also, Austin has been pretty good here at Daytona over the last couple of years, and my motto when making picks at this race track is to go with the hot hand. In this year’s season-opening Daytona 500, Austin brought his #3 Chevrolet home in 14th, which is decent for his tier in fantasy games. Last year, through, he came home 9th in “The Great American Race” and brought it home 5th in the July event. I’d love to get another top 5 finish out of Dillon this weekend, and as far as sleepers, he’s the one that I have the most confidence in accomplishing that. There’s just something about the #3 car at Daytona…

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This week we get a little break from normal as we’re at Sonoma Raceway, the first of two road course races this season. Personally I like to watch the races on this type of track, but from a fantasy perspective they can be frustrating. Crew chiefs will be working backwards with fuel strategy as soon as the green flag flies, so this opens the door to take some chances with fantasy sleeper picks in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Fantasy Sleepers for Sonoma

A.J. Allmendinger – There’s a lot to like this weekend when it comes to A.J. Allmendinger, and there will be even more to like when we go to Watkins Glen later this year. Although the two road course tracks on the NASCAR circuit are quite different than each other, they’re both still road courses that require a lot of driver talent and crew chief strategy. A.J. won at Watkins Glen last season and led 35 laps here at Sonoma but finished 37th after playing bumper cars with some of his competitors. It’s safe to say that Allmendinger would have been a solid top 5 pick here last season if he didn’t run into those troubles. Four of the last five Sonoma races have ended with A.J. finishing 13th or better, so it’s definitely worth your time to keep an eye on that #47 Chevrolet here this weekend.

Jamie McMurray – I remember the 2013 race here quite well. Do you? Here’s what happened: Jamie McMurray (surprisingly) won the pole and looked great in practice all weekend. I went all in on him in the majority of my fantasy leagues, and then on Sunday he only led 2 laps and quickly fell back in the running order, ultimately finishing 25th. That’s when I stopped trusting Jamie Mac. Flash forward to 2014, and McMurray once again won the pole at Sonoma and looked good in practice. I wasn’t falling for it this time, though. Unfortunately. Jamie ended up 4th in this race last season, leading 9 laps in the process. It’s been his only top 10 result at this track since the 2004 season. So what can we expect out of Jamie and the #1 team this weekend? I’m quietly optimistic. This team has been running incredibly well in 2015 (McMurray has scored the 7th-most points in the series) and they showed that they can get a good finish at a road course last season.

Casey Mears – I really like Casey Mears as a sleeper pick at what I call the “other tracks”–specifically the restrictor plate venues as well as the road courses. I like him even more since this #13 team switched to Chevrolet. Looking at all of the races since the start of the 2013 season, the top tracks for Mears (when it comes to average finish) have been Daytona, Watkins Glen, and Sonoma…in that order. Casey hasn’t ended up worse than 20th at Watkins Glen since the 2006 season, which is pretty damn good for a guy that has pretty much had sub-par equipment every year. At Sonoma, Mears has finished 13th, 16th, and 15th in the last three events. For a lower tier driver like Casey, those type of finishes are great values in many fantasy leagues, so it’s definitely worth taking a look at the #13 this weekend.

Michigan International Speedway is a big 2-mile race track that was recently repaved. Those two variables mean that we’re going to see some very high speeds all weekend. This is one of the fastest tracks on the circuit so we should see some exciting racing here in the Quicken Loans 400 on Sunday. Roush-Fenway Racing used to own this race track but that’s not the case any more. The teams that have been strong all season long should end up near the front this weekend as well, but there are a few sleepers to consider when making your fantasy picks.

Fantasy Sleepers for Michigan

Greg Biffle – I know I’ve been hard on the Roush-Fenway Fords this season, but I have my reasons. With that being said, there’s been plenty of talk that Roush (and the #16 team specifically) have made some major gains as of late. Well, this is the weekend that we’re going to find out how legitimate those claims are. Michigan International Speedway used to be the track that the RFR cars were all locks for top 10 finishes. Most of the teams have fallen off quite a bit, but Biffle and the #16 crew have still maintained some success with four top 10s in the last five races here. The Biff ended up 10th here at Michigan in the fall race last season so we’ll see if he can replicate that in this year’s Quicken Loans 400 on Sunday. I’m not overly confident, and with only 3 handicap points in The Showcase this weekend, I probably won’t even consider the #16 Ford on my fantasy team this week. Biffle’s 7.5 average finish over the last six Michigan races really brought his handicap points down this week.

Paul Menard – The #27 team will be looking for a big rebound race after their tire problems at Pocono last weekend…and Michigan is the perfect place for that to happen. I would be surprised if any fantasy expert didn’t at least have Menard on his/her sleeper radar this weekend, and the reason is simple: Paul hasn’t finished worse than 4th in any of the last three races here at MIS. He also hasn’t finished any better than 4th. Over the last five events, Menard has ended up inside the top 10 in four of them with a worst finish of 14th. It’s clear that he has definitely figured something out here at Michigan as of late, and until Menard gives you a reason not to pick him, you might as well ride the momentum. In The Showcase, Menard will receive 4 handicap points on Sunday, which isn’t that great of a value. However, in other leagues, I would definitely consider the #27 Chevrolet this weekend. It’s worth noting that Menard finished 4th at Fontana earlier this season, which is another 2-mile intermediate track like Michigan.

Danica Patrick – NASCAR’s favorite female driver actually hasn’t been too bad here at Michigan, and she could prove to be a very valuable pick in some fantasy leagues this weekend. Danica’s main strength is that she can stay on the lead lap (or get a well-timed caution and get back on the lead lap). If there are a few wrecks and/or mechanical issues, the #10 Chevrolet then winds up inside the top 15. Occasionally, Patrick has a good enough car and strategy to legitimately run top 10, but those are few and far between. Anyway, looking at Michigan, Danica has made four career Sprint Cup starts here and has averaged a finish of 17.8. Believe it or not, this is statistically her best track in the series. She ran 17th and 18th in the two races at Michigan in 2014 and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Danica end up around there once again on Sunday. She ran 19th at Fontana earlier this year, which is another 2-mile track. In The Showcase, Danica will net fantasy owners 11 handicap points at Michigan on Sunday, which could make her a very nice “off-sequence” pick if she can end up inside the top 15.

The site of this week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race is Pocono Raceway, located in beautiful Pocono, Pennsylvania. Nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle,” this 2.5-mile race track will really test the driving (and shifting) skill of the drivers on Sunday. Because horsepower is such a big deal here, expect to see many of the “big dogs” run up front all day. We’re less likely to see sleeper picks get a good result here but it’s not unheard of. Here are some guys to keep an eye on in the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 on Sunday.

Fantasy Sleepers for Pocono

David Ragan – Surprised? Don’t be. I feel like David Ragan is finally settling into his Michael Waltrip Racing ride and we could see some good runs out of him here soon. I also feel like the MWR organization is starting to make a comeback because they’ve been pretty far behind all season long. Anyway, David had a great qualifying run in Charlotte (7th) but a blown engine relegated him to a 41st-place finish. Last week at Dover, however, Ragan and the #55 team had a pretty quiet race but stayed out of trouble and ended up 13th. Not too shabby. Another reason I like him as a (deep) sleeper this week is because he finished 18th and 19th in the two Pocono races last season, and that’s while he was running for Front Row Motorsports. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see Ragan run top 15 here on Sunday. In The Showcase, David will receive 12 handicap points for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400. This means that a 12th-place finish would net you top 5-like points. With that being said, there’s no way I’m going to pick Ragan here at Fantasy Racing Online but in other leagues he might be a very valuable lower tier fantasy pick on Sunday.

Jamie McMurray – Jamie Mac came home with a 7th-place finish at Dover last weekend and that makes it seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races that he has ended up 14th or better. You can’t ask for much more out of this #1 team. Oh, and the exception in that eight was Jamie’s 19th-place finish at Charlotte a couple of weeks ago. Not too shabby. Here at Pocono, McMurray owns just a 19.8 career average finish but he ended up top 10 in both races here last season. Also, Jamie hasn’t posted a result worse than 17th at Pocono since the 2011 season. Believe it or not, that’s pretty impressive because races can get somewhat unpredictable at “The Tricky Triangle.” Because of his good finishes both here at Pocono as well as recently in the Sprint Cup Series, McMurray will only receive 4 handicap points in The Showcase this weekend. It would take the #1 Chevrolet looking like a top 5 car all weekend for me to consider Jamie McMurray in this game on Sunday.

Aric Almirola – Well, the #43 team finally broke through at Dover and got their first top 5 finish of the 2015 season. It was also their first top 10 result of this year’s campaign. With that being said, they’re actually not having too bad of a year because Almirola has been incredibly consistent. That 5th-place finish is Aric’s third top 15 in the last four Sprint Cup races and his sixth of the last nine. It’s worth noting that he has only finished worse than 20th once thus far in 2015, and that was his 26th-place result at Las Vegas way back in March. I was surprised by that as well. Here at Pocono, Almirola’s career best finish so far has been 18th but I think he has the potential to establish a new career best here on Sunday. It’s worth paying a little attention to the #43 Ford during practice this weekend, in my opinion. In The Showcase, Aric Almirola will receive a middle-of-the-road 8 handicap points for this week’s race. For me to seriously consider him on my roster, I’d have to view the #43 Ford as a legitimate top 10 threat on Sunday.