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Fantasy NASCAR Favorites: Texas

57th Annual Daytona 500After having the weekend off to celebrate the Easter holiday, the Sprint Cup teams will travel to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for the Duck Commander 500 on Saturday night. This will be the first official night race of the 2015 season and should give us a glimpse of how different teams will be able to respond to changing track conditions moving forward. Something to keep in mind this weekend when trying to handicap the field after qualifying is that all practice sessions will be held on Friday afternoon despite the fact that we race on Saturday night. Texas is a 1.5-mile quad-oval track and if you’re looking at past statistics here for fantasy purposes, I’d focus just on past spring races for this week because the track changes a lot between that race and the fall event.

Fantasy Favorites for Texas

Joey Logano – Admittedly, I was a little rough on Joey Logano and the #22 team a couple weeks ago when I criticized their ability to keep up with the track. The “rough patch” that I envisioned them having after the Daytona win still equaled out to a 5.5 average finish over the first six races of this season with no result outside of the top 10. I’m just expecting a top 5 out of this kid on a weekly basis and that’s something that’s only going to happen if your name is Kevin Harvick. Logano “rebounded” (for lack of a better term) with a 3rd-place finish at Martinsville and I fully expect the #22 Ford to make it back-to-back top 5s here at Texas on Saturday night. We all know that Joey is pretty a lock to qualify up front and that can pay dividends here at a track like Texas, believe it or not. Logano is the defending winner of this race and has finished 5th or better in three of the last four events at this track. In the fall race here back in November, the #22 team had a less-than-average day and still came home 12th. Once again, Joey Logano is one of the most solid fantasy picks you can roster this weekend, and will be pretty much all season long so get used to it. In The Showcase, the driver of the #22 Ford will receive 0 handicap points for the Texas race, indicating that he is the favorite to win according to the Fantasy Racing Online algorithm. As long as you think Joey is a solid top 5 pick, there’s no reason not to consider him in this game this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson burnout after win at AtlantaJimmie Johnson – Texas is exactly the race track that Jimmie Johnson needs right now because he’s in a bit of a slump and this is the type of place that can pull him out of it. “Six Time” finished 25th in this event last season but let’s remember that that was because of damage he received when his teammate, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., decided to do some off-roading. Looking at the last three years at this venue, Johnson has went to victory lane three times and has posted five finishes of 6th or better in the six events ran. Yeah, he’s that good here. Jimmie’s career average finish at Texas Motor Speedway comes in at a very impressive 9.1, which is 2nd-best to Matt Kenseth’s 8.9. At the intermediate races ran thus far in 2015, Johnson won at Atlanta, could have won at Las Vegas, and came home 9th at Fontana. I’m a little cautious picking Jimmie this weekend but it’s hard to go against a driver that could very well go out there and dominate this race on Saturday night. Johnson will receive 3 handicap points in The Showcase this weekend, which is quite generous for a driver that has such a good record at this track. The 3 points are due to this team’s perceived struggles over the first six races of the 2015 season and the handicap value should make Johnson one of the most picked drivers on Saturday night.

Kevin Harvick – It’s hard to believe but Kevin Harvick’s 8th-place finish at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago was actually pretty disappointing, both for the team as well as fantasy owners. The streak of top 2 finishes is now over for “Happy” but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me at all if he starts it back up here at Texas on Saturday night. Harvick had a top 5 car in this event one year ago but had mechanical issues that relegated him to a 42nd-place finish. This #4 team hasn’t been running into the problems that they were early on in 2014, so that’s a very good sign for this weekend–although it is impossible to predict those kind of issues. Harvick didn’t disappoint here at Texas last fall, though, starting 5th and ending up 2nd to race winner Jimmie Johnson. You can’t win them all I guess. Harvick is a must-pick, weekly top 5 threat, and if you don’t know that by now I’m assuming you’re not doing very well in your fantasy leagues. In The Showcase, “Happy” will receive 1 handicap point for the Duck Commander 500, which is to be expected. He’s right up there with Joey Logano when it comes to the favorites this weekend and both will probably be on many rosters Saturday night.

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Fantasy NASCAR Favorites: Martinsville

Jimmie Johnson putting Chase decal on at Atlanta 2015

Jimmie Johnson putting Chase decal on at Atlanta 2015Nicknamed “The Paperclip,” Martinsville Speedway is the shortest track that the Sprint Cup Series visits. This is the first of two stops at this 0.526-mile race track, as we’ll be here again in the fall during the Chase. The drivers will make 500 laps around Martinsville on Sunday, which equates to just over 250 miles. Because of how short the race is, mistakes by either the driver or their pit crew will have major implications. Sunday’s STP 500 will be the first actual short track race of the season, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I expect the normal faces to be up front when it’s all said and done.

Fantasy Favorites for Martinsville

Jimmie Johnson – This race at Martinsville is exactly what “Six Time” needed. Since starting off this 2015 season with a top 5 at Daytona and a win at Atlanta, Jimmie Johnson hasn’t finished better than 9th. That will change on Sunday, though. Will, not should. In 26 career starts here at “The Paperclip,” Johnson has 8 trips to victory lane with 18 total top 5 finishes and an average result of 6.2. He’s led over 2,700 laps at this track, which is second only to teammate Jeff Gordon’s 3,720–in 18 more starts. Johnson had led at least 100 laps in five of the last six Cup races here at Martinsville and has finished inside the top 5 in four of the last five. Another top 5 (at least) should be expected out of the #48 this weekend. In The Showcase, Johnson will receive zero handicap points, which is to be expected because of his stellar record here. However, that doesn’t mean you should avoid him this weekend because there’s a good chance that he could lead the most laps and win the race, both of which are worth 5 bonus points in this fantasy game.

Jeff Gordon car 2015Jeff Gordon – Hendrick Motorsports has an absolute stranglehold on this race track, and that’s putting it nicely. Just like teammate Jimmie Johnson has eight wins here in NASCAR’s top series, Jeff Gordon is also an eight-time winner at Martinsville Speedway. He’s also finished inside the top 10 in 35 of his 44 career starts here, which is equal to 79.5%–and absolutely incredible. Gordon got off to a pretty rough start to this 2015 season but after his 10th-place finish at Fontana last weekend, he now has back-to-back top 10s. I fully expect Jeff to make that three in a row and probably notch his first top 5 of the 2015 season here on Sunday at the STP 500. In The Showcase, the driver of the #24 Chevrolet will receive 4 handicap points on Sunday, which makes Gordon an excellent value play. I’ll go ahead and predict that Jeff might be the most picked driver this weekend simply because of those points. He is receiving 4 because of how mediocre he has finished over the last six overall Cup races.

Matt Kenseth – Surprised to see Kenseth in third on this list? Don’t be. As I said before, pit crews are going to be very important here at Martinsville on Sunday. Remember how fast they were in California last weekend? Kenseth probably would have won the Auto Club 400 if he wouldn’t have broken his axle. Their 10-second pit stop near the end of that race was almost unbelievable. In addition to that, Kenseth is on a three-race streak of top 6 finishes here at “The Paperclip.” Although his history at this track is a bit rocky, Matt has had a very good record here since joining Joe Gibbs Racing. A lot of fantasy owners are going to overlook Kenseth this weekend but don’t be surprised if he’s inside the top 5 when the checkered flag waves on Sunday. Over the last four Sprint Cup races here at Martinsville, only Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have better average driver ratings than Matt Kenseth. In The Showcase this week, Kenseth gets 2 handicap points, which is to be expected when it comes to how he has ran over the last six races both at Martinsville and in the Cup Series overall. There might be some better options come Sunday, but if the #20 Toyota looks like a top 5 car, picking Kenseth would be a wise move.

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NASCAR’s Handling of Kurt Busch is Embarrassing

Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

Kurt Busch getting into his car at FontanaA day before this year’s Daytona 500 an announcement was made by NASCAR that Sprint Cup driver Kurt Busch was immediately and indefinitely suspended due to actions detrimental to stock car racing. Allegations of domestic abuse from Busch’s former girlfriend forced NASCAR’s hand, as a judge in the Family Court of the State of Delaware ruled that it was “more likely than not” that the abuse occurred.

NASCAR had to make a decision quickly, and they did, by choosing the most PR-friendly route. No criminal charges were filed against Kurt Busch, nor will there be.

Everyone familiar with sports knows the issues with domestic violence that have been going on over the past year, particularly with the NFL. Running back Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens was initially suspended for just two games for domestic abuse accusations against his fiance. Once video surfaced of Rice literally knocking her out, however, the NFL had a major issue due to their mishandling of the situation and its seriousness.

Soon after that the story broke that star running back Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings was being investigated for child abuse. With how terrible the NFL looked after the Ray Rice video came out, the league immediately sprung into action against Peterson and suspended him for the 2014 season. He eventually agreed to a plea deal that turned the charge into reckless assault, a misdemeanor. The NFL rushed to make an example out of Peterson and tried to save face, to put it simply, and NASCAR essentially did the same thing with Kurt Busch.

STP 500Kurt Busch is a good race car driver. You don’t accumulate 25 career wins (and counting) and a championship in NASCAR’s top series just by being lucky. However, he’s also a hothead, both on and off the track. His reputation has earned him the nickname “Outlaw,” although this season–once his suspension was finally lifted in early March–he decided to ditch the pseudonym from the door of his race car in favor of his signature.

Because of his anger issues, it’s not completely unbelievable that Kurt would beat a female (unfortunately). FOX Sports posted an excellent article back in February about Busch’s long history of anger issues. However, an accusation shouldn’t cause a knee-jerk reaction like what we saw out of NASCAR back in February. With how much money there is to be lost from sponsors dropping out, though, it’s somewhat understandable why NASCAR did what it did. And at least they reinstated him quickly once it was announced that no criminal charges would come out of his ex-girlfriend’s accusations.

Then the race at Auto Club Speedway happened on Sunday, and we saw just how much NASCAR doesn’t want Kurt Busch to win.

Kurt Busch had the fastest car at Auto Club Speedway all weekend; he won the pole on Friday and topped both practice charts on Saturday. Kevin Harvick was favored to win Sunday’s race at 3-1 odds but Kurt was right there behind him at 4-1. Busch led the most laps during the race on Sunday and should have won the event as well…but NASCAR’s mighty hand came down.

On lap 199 of the 200 lap event–and with Kurt Busch leading by a half-second over Kevin Harvick–NASCAR threw the caution flag for what was reported as debris in one of the turns. Kurt Busch simply said, “WWE” to his crew chief on the radio, implying (in my opinion) that NASCAR was trying to fix the race. No debris was ever shown on the television broadcast, and there were numerous drivers who said they didn’t understand why the caution flag was flown. They didn’t see the debris, either.

So, we went to a green-white-checkered restart, and Kurt Busch jumped out to the lead again, seemingly on his way to victory lane. Then Greg Biffle slid up and caused Kyle Larson to hit the wall. The back end of the #42 Chevrolet literally flew off the car, and caution flew again. This time, however, we actually saw the debris, so I’ll let it slide.

The field went green again once that was cleaned up and Kurt jumped into the lead once again, although Brad Keselowski was coming quick on new tires. Busch took the white flag, though, and started the last lap of the race, which also meant that the next flag ended the race, whether it be the yellow or the checkered. As the leaders were getting into turn one–and Keselowski gaining quick on Busch–a wreck started near the start/finish line that blocked the track. Any other day that would have caused NASCAR to throw the caution flag and declare the winner. If that would have happened it would have been Kurt Busch.

But NASCAR didn’t want Kurt Busch to win.

In a move that made nearly everyone scratch their heads, NASCAR let the field race back to the checkered flag and it was ultimately Brad Keselowski who won the 2015 Auto Club 400. Kevin Harvick also passed Kurt Busch for 2nd on that final lap, so the “Outlaw” came home 3rd. A good finish, yes, but not what he deserved.

Brad Keselowski burnout after win at Fontana 2015Typically I’m don’t read into conspiracy theories very much (and if I do I don’t believe them) but NASCAR’s bias against Kurt Busch was clear as day in California on Sunday: they simply did not want him to win. Because how would it look if the guy that got accused of beating his ex-girlfriend senseless won a race and solidified his spot in the sport’s playoffs later this year? It was a PR mess that NASCAR didn’t want to deal with so they did all that they could to prevent it.

To be clear, I’m not saying all of this because I’m a huge Kurt Busch fan. In all reality, I hated Kurt Busch and thought his talent was blown out of proportion for a while. But now that NASCAR has unleashed this vendetta against him, it’s hard not to root for the guy. I also bet on Keselowski (at 11-1 odds) to win the Auto Club 400 on Sunday. However, I was still pissed off at how that all played out.

And if you don’t believe that NASCAR intentionally made calls to prevent Kurt Busch from winning on Sunday, then let’s discuss their inconsistent throwing of caution flags and penalties that have gone on over the last few years. Hey NASCAR: you want to know why you’re losing so much of your fan base and your ratings are tanking? It’s because of bullshit like this. Good luck to Kurt Busch the rest of the year, I hope he wins the championship and flips off NASCAR CEO Brian France as he hoists the trophy in Homestead.

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Fantasy NASCAR Sleeper Picks: Fontana

Brian Vickers at Phoenix

CampingWorld.com 500 - QualifyingAs mentioned in the Fantasy NASCAR Favorites article earlier this week, Auto Club Speedway rarely sees the same drivers finishing up front on a consistent basis. This is good and bad for fantasy players. Those who like to take a few risks with their rosters should have some good opportunities on Sunday in the Auto Club 400, as has been the case pretty much for the entire 2015 season thus far. I think the new rules package has leveled the playing field by quite a bit, allowing the mid-tier drivers to shine.

Fantasy Sleepers for Fontana

Brian Vickers – Editor’s note: it was announced on Friday that Brian Vickers is sidelined again for health reasons. Brett Moffitt will race the #55 Toyota at Fontana on Sunday. Vickers missed the first two races of the season because of health problems, but he didn’t miss a step once he got back into the #55 Toyota: at Atlanta, Brian qualified 28th but rallied for a 15th-place finish when the checkered flag flew. Looking at the other intermediate track race this season, Brett Moffitt wheeled this car top an 8th-place result at Atlanta, so it’s safe to say that crew chief Billy Scott isn’t entirely incompetent. Vickers is coming off of a disappointing 41st-place finish at Phoenix last weekend but he should be looking forward to Sunday’s race at Fontana; over his last nine starts at this race track, Vickers has just one finish worse than 12th, and he ended up 7th in this event one year ago. In The Showcase, the driver of the #55 Toyota will receive 6 handicap points at Fontana this weekend, which isn’t terrible for his tier. However, when you have guys like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski getting 5 and 7 handicap points (respectively) it’s hard to go with Vickers–unless you want to go against the popular picks.

Jamie McMurray Casey Mears NASCARJamie McMurray – Jamie Mac is coming off of a 2nd-place finish at Phoenix and an 11th-place result at Las Vegas so his confidence has to be pretty high right now. With that being said, you should always use quite a bit of caution with guys like him because inconsistency would probably be his middle name if his mom had to do it all over again. Now, looking into Fontana, McMurray finished a solid 6th here last season, which was great. However, that was his first top 10 result since the 2006 season (not a typo). Ouch, that’s definitely going to make some fantasy players shy away from him…but that puts the advantage in your favor. McMurray should be a solid fantasy pick this weekend because he was super fast at Atlanta and pretty strong at Las Vegas. These Ganassi cars also have Hendrick engines in them and Jamie has really turned into a nice little intermediate Sprint Cup racer over the last six months. In The Showcase, Jamie McMurray will get you 9 very valuable handicap points this weekend because of his rocky results here at Auto Club over the last six races. This means that it will take only a 14th-place finish for you to get top 5-like fantasy points out of McMurray. Not too bad…

Paul Menard – The driver of the #27 Chevrolet is kind of getting overlooked in this young 2015 season, but when you look at his finishes, Paul Menard has actually been one of the most consistent drivers in the series. Paul ended up 13th at Atlanta after the season-opening Daytona 500 and then finished 12th at Las Vegas before posting a 14th-place finish at Phoenix last weekend. Not great, but not terrible either. Now that we’re at Auto Club Speedway, there’s going to be some fantasy players on the Menard bandwagon because he finished 9th here last season and 8th in 2013. The hard part with picking Paul, though, is that he rarely has a great performance. A typically Paul Menard race will be one where he runs around 12th through 18th all race and then, at the end, he might sneak into the top 10. In The Showcase, Menard will also receive 6 handicap points like Brian Vickers. Personally I don’t think this is good enough value to consider him (at least heading into the weekend), but with a handicap like that, an 11th-place finish out of Menard would give you top 5-like fantasy points, so I can’t blame you for keeping the #27 in mind on Sunday.

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Fantasy NASCAR Favorites: Fontana

Jimmie Johnson ahead of Kyle Larson at Phoenix 2015

Jimmie Johnson ahead of Kyle Larson at Phoenix 2015NASCAR’s west coast swing finishes off this weekend in California at Auto Club Speedway–sometimes referred to as Fontana–with the Auto Club 400. This is a 2-mile race track in which events have a history of coming down to fuel mileage…unfortunately. We’re officially four races into the 2015 season so those mid-tier drivers with momentum will come back down to earth soon–use them while you can. What’s interesting with Fontana is that there are few drivers that consistently finish up front. With that being said, I expect the drivers that were fast at Atlanta and Las Vegas to have a small advantage this weekend as well.

Fantasy Favorites for Fontana

Jimmie Johnson – “Six Time” has ended up 24th, 12th, and 10th in the last three races at Auto Club Speedway but he still has to be considered one of the favorites heading into Sunday. Even with those subpar results, Johnson owns a crazy-awesome career average finish of 6.7 at this venue–his home race track. Yeah, his stats are that good. In the nine races ran here from 2007 to 2011, Johnson ended up 3rd or better in all but one. The exception? A 9th-place finish in 2009. Looking at the two intermediate races thus far in 2015, JJ won at Atlanta and had one of the best cars at Las Vegas before tire issues delegated him to a 41st-place result. Don’t worry: as long as the #48 Chevrolet doesn’t have any mechanical issues at Fontana on Sunday, Jimmie Johnson should definitely challenge for the win. In The Showcase, “Six Time” will receive 4 handicap points for this weekend’s race, which is a pretty good value when you consider he could win the race (5 bonus points) as well as lead the most laps (5 more bonus points). If all of that happens, Jimmie will score 57 points at Fontana, and 114 if he’s your All Star pick.

Kevin Harvick at Las Vegas 2015Kevin Harvick – Is there really an explanation needed here? Kevin Harvick has an average finish of 1.3 over the last six Sprint Cup races. That wasn’t a typo; “Happy” hasn’t had a result worse than 2nd in NASCAR’s top series since the Martinsville race last October. Seriously. With that being said, there should be quite a few fantasy racers that shy away from the #4 Chevrolet this weekend due to Kevin’s rocky record here at Fontana. Over 21 career starts at this race track, Harvick has a career average finish of just 16.4 with only one win and four top 5s. Still, it’s impossible to go against a team that’s this hot; the streak that Harvick and co. are on right now is one of the most impressive I’ve seen in a long time. As I’ve said a few times this year, I truly believe the Kevin Harvick/Rodney Childers match-up should be called Jimmie Johnson/Chad Knaus 2.0. In The Showcase, Harvick will receive 0 handicap points for the race at Fontana, which is to be expected. As usual with those who are set at this level, I’d probably look into alternative options unless you think he can go to victory lane, which is more than likely this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Yeah, a lot of fantasy players got burned by Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s finish at Phoenix last weekend, but in these games you have to have a short memory or you’re probably not going to succeed. Junior is one of the better racers in the Sprint Cup Series on these 2-mile race tracks and that should be the case once again on Sunday at Fontana. He ended up 12th in this race last season but let’s not forget that Dale was 3rd and 2nd in the two races here in 2012 and 2013. Looking at the two intermediate races we have ran already this year, the #88 Chevrolet came home 3rd at Atlanta and 4th at Las Vegas. I see no reason why Junior won’t be a top 5 threat again on Sunday. In The Showcase, Earnhardt will receive a generous 5 handicap points this week because of his middle-of-the-road average finish in the last six Fontana races as well as his finish last week at Phoenix (it really brought down his average over the last six overall Cup races). This is excellent value for a driver that is a typical top 5 threat on race days.

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Coca-Cola 600 Starting Lineup if Qualifying is Rained Out

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Practice and qualifying for this year's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway are scheduled to take place on Saturday evening, but the weather forecast...

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